10224 - Town Hall

[Spanky]

One more graph for fun.

 

I'm looking for patterns. This is a graph of the age of all Exclusives since 2007, excluding the following:

 

- All Star Wars (since I think they have a separate release schedule than the rest of the themes).

- All Factory

- All Seasonal (Winter Village)

 

 

What I like about this graph is it shows a relatively steady rate of exclusives being introduced, and it helps pop out which ones are getting old and which ones may be retiring prematurely.

[bricketycricket]

One more graph for fun.

 

What I like about this graph is it shows a relatively steady rate of exclusives being introduced, and it helps pop out which ones are getting old and which ones may be retiring prematurely.

 

Would be interesting to see this with bars overlayed onto the retired sets to indicate how long they lasted until retirement

[jerryherb]

Would be interesting to see this with bars overlayed onto the retired sets to indicate how long they lasted until retirement

yes, that would be something. i think you missed the tumbler the imperial shuttle, oh nevermind, star wars excluded

Edited October 31, 2014 by jerryherb

[areyounormal]

I am not great at Math but if I am correct the above graph with the red and purple show the release dates correct - so the graph shows a steady rate of release dates. Unless I am missing something - does is show the retirement dates? I think that is the slope or pattern I would be interested in. Again, bad at math so my apologies if the answer is staring me right in the face.

[Ed Mack]

Right here: http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/10400-assumed-date-codes-for-production-runs/page-27#entry347889

If I cared to speculate (and I do), I would predict 13-14 major sets are going away (or are already gone except for vapors): TH, GE. HH. SC, KJ, R2, HE, SOH, WVM, ToO, R5, EEE, AA, and maybe it is finally time for good old DS.

Ones that I don't think are going away (that others have speculated will) are: TB, PS, 4x4, T1

Just IMHO, YMMV, etc, etc.

P.S. - 60% of the time I think I'm 100% correct, or 100% of the time 60% correct, or I can't fool all of the people some of the time, or something like that.

My bad. I did say 10. I'm smarter than I thought. ????

[Ed Mack]

Exclusives approaching or exceeding 2 years old (by age):

6.4 yrs: 10188 Death Star

4.7 yrs: 10211 Grand Emporium

4.1 yrs: 10214 Tower Bridge

3.5 yrs: 10218 Pet Shop

3.1 yrs: 10220 Volkswagen T1 Camper Van

2.8 yrs: 10223 Kingdoms Joust

2.7 yrs: 10224 Town Hall

2.5 yrs: 10225 R2-D2

2.4 yrs: 10226 Sopwith Camel

2.3 yrs: 9398 4X4 Crawler

2.2 yrs: 10228 Haunted House

1.8 yrs: 10233 Horizon Express

1.8 yrs: 10937 Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout

1.8 yrs: 42006 Excavator

This is a great list.

[tonysbricks]

I will eat my Town Hall if it retires this year.

 

Edit: Ugh that was DNIIM, not Ed. I tried to quote Ed's post and change it to DNIIM since I can't quote a locked thread.

 

 

 

This beauty got lost in a daily deal thread. Let's keep it here for posterity sake, just in case.

Edited October 31, 2014 by tonysbricks

[inversion]

This is a great list.

Don't say thing like that else people begin to speculate.

[areyounormal]

This beauty got lost in a daily deal thread. Let's keep it here for posterity sake, just in case.

I thought DNIIM posted that

[trekgate502]

This is a great list.

Care to throw 2 out of contention from it, not that you are agreeing or disagreeing the remaining will retire? hehehe

[Sauromosis]

I'm starting to wonder if it's the DS he specifically meant by "something wicked this way comes" because he knows the insanity that would break out.

[tonysbricks]

I thought DNIIM posted that

 

Yes, I tried to quote Ed and change it to DNIIM but the forum ate my quote edits I updated OP too.

[Alpinemaps]

Nvm

[macdroid]

Man... you should start reading few dozen pages back :-)

I have read the whole topic and agree. I'm starting to believe, that if TH is gone, probably PS changes soon from BO to sold out. Seams reasonable that LEGO wants to reduce available modulars to 3 at a time, that would mean, beginning of 2015 GE, TH and PS will be marked as retired and modulars will have a 3 years lifespan...

P.S. Ed is busy buying Pet Shops....

Edited October 31, 2014 by macdroid

[cdenmier]

P.S. Ed is busy buying Pet Shops....

I have to admit, I bumped up PS on my buy list and have what I want, but I swear if I hear next that I've got to buy PC and PR right now (lest I miss them) my head is going to 'asplode.

[Sauromosis]

PS - most boring modular

[mudcatsfan]

PS - most boring modular

Its actually the most modular of the modulars.

[speedsausage]

If the theory of modulars becoming extinct is true, hopefully they make a fourth corner building and one more side by side so a fully complete city block can be assembled.

[BrickLegacy]

How crazy would it be if Lego retired 10 exclusives then followed that up by lifting their no discounts on exclusives policy in January?

That would be some chaos followed by some wicked sweet deals.

[trekgate502]

How crazy would it be if Lego retired 10 exclusives then followed that up by lifting their no discounts on exclusives policy in January?

That would be some chaos followed by some wicked sweet deals.

 

 

That would be crazy chaotic and wicked and I would love it but I see no reason why they will change their pricing policies.

They cannot keep up with production, they have become #1 in Toys and are making a bundle.

I know of no reason why they would let exclusives go for below MSRP.  If I was them I wouldn't.

I hope I am wrong.

[mykingdomforabrick]

That would be crazy chaotic and wicked and I would love it but I see no reason why they will change their pricing policies.

They cannot keep up with production, they have become #1 in Toys and are making a bundle.

I know of no reason why they would let exclusives go for below MSRP.  If I was them I wouldn't.

I hope I am wrong.

 

Case in point they had a whole lot of people clamoring to empty their wallets to buy lego bricks at full msrp.

Throwing money at them as quickly as they'd take it.   Lego does not need to discount.  

 

Believe whatever they are doing is winning the retail battle.

[trekgate502]

Case in point they had a whole lot of people clamoring to empty their wallets to buy lego bricks at full msrp.

Throwing money at them as quickly as they'd take it.   Lego does not need to discount.  

 

Believe whatever they are doing is winning the retail battle.

 

I'd like your post but I am alas out of likes.

[biniou]

Hmm... Not sure what to think of this.

I'm not sure what you are alluding to, but if I had to guess something that none of us would expect, it would be the PS retiring this year along with the TH and GE. Just a guess...

 

That wouldn't be such a big deal. Not important to tease like if lego would merge with kreo (man THAT would be some chaos).

 

So how the heck am I going to know if I've got the right ones before it's to late?

 

You can't. Note that even if Ed didn't told us anything (well, we can consider he didn't afterall ) it would have been the same. It's part of the investing risk.

 

Right here: http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/10400-assumed-date-codes-for-production-runs/page-27#entry347889

 

errr my english is poor but it doesn't look like a statement to, more like an hint. Was Ed distracted (or not) and gave us a clue (or not) ? Who knows. (I'm sure I don't ^^ )

 

 

 

(addition note: I've just received a TH from LEGO Shop at Home, seals 37S4)

Edited October 31, 2014 by biniou

[Ciglione]

After reading all this I think people are right when saying that lego will do more sales directly. Cause what I have noticed is that people flip just released new sets on for example Craig's List for profit. Cause, as already mentioned, many people dunno about lego shop&home. Hence, they are not even members of Lego. So if people can go to a legostore in their city, there is no need no more to buy something through ebay for inflated prices. So for us investors it will become more difficult. It will become even harder to buy below RRP. Lego will be the main source to buy. So it will also be more difficult to acquire multiples like we do now. Exclusives (or hard to find) will become real exclusives once again. My feeling and 0.02 about exclusive sets that will retire now or very soon: - VW T1 Camper - DS - R2-D2 - PS - SC - TB - Triple E - AA

[Ciglione]

Additionally... I believe these changes will start as of 1 January 2015. So besides the usual suspects, it would not hurt to buy the newer just released exclusives as soon as possible when you find them at a good price. Cause after 1 January you can't anymore.