10224 - Town Hall

[Darth_Raichu]

What happened with TH today made me re-think my strategy going forward (and I just mapped out brand new strategy for myself, darn it )

[Fcbarcelona101]

I love how people on both sides claim to know for certain what's going on with any particular set.

[jaisonline]

What happened with TH today made me re-think my strategy going forward (and I just mapped out brand new strategy for myself, darn it )

 

feel free to explain your most recent strategy and what needs to change about it

[BrickLegacy]

It worries me that the novice investors are buying these up thinking it will retire while the veteran resellers are swooping up the inventory for just the Christmas time bonanza.

 

I was caught up in this once and learned my lesson the hard way.

[chinothegeeko]

It worries me that the novice investors are buying these up thinking it will retire while the veteran resellers are swooping up the inventory for just the Christmas time bonanza.

 

I was caught up in this once and learned my lesson the hard way.

 

Yeah hopefully when they find out it's not retiring yet, they don't return them all. Anyways, pretty ridiculous last 2 days with all the town halls vanishing, then of course re-appearing.

[Darth_Raichu]

feel free to explain your most recent strategy and what needs to change about it

First order of business, no more herd mentality :D

[zskid00]

FWIW my local LEGO store was out of Town Halls today and yesterday there were a few on the shelf.  I think the low inventory is due to LEGO cranking out the remaining Haunted House and GE product as well as trying to prioritize retail store orders in time for holiday shopping. 

[redghostx]

FWIW my local LEGO store was out of Town Halls today and yesterday there were a few on the shelf.  I think the low inventory is due to LEGO cranking out the remaining Haunted House and GE product as well as trying to prioritize retail store orders in time for holiday shopping. 

Stores get different replacement orders at different levels - A particular store had no town halls one month then had a large influx of them and the next month received only a couple - it all goes in cycles.  You can ask your store when they expect to receive it as they do have some order information in store. (:

[Ed Mack]

Very soon, this will be the busiest thread on the site.  

[wildkarrde5]

Ordered a TH yesterday (and PC & Metalbeard's Sea Cow) due to 2x VIP points. Already shipped.

This is just the double VIP point effect of people waiting until Oct. to buy the large sets, imo.

[trekgate502]

I will probably be heckled for this, though I ask you to respond respectfully.

 

Lego is at or approaching being a $5 Billion corporation.  Does everyone really think that the mass effect of people on Brickpicker and other sites who buy up inventory have such an important effect on Lego that we actually cause them to adjust sales forecasts and run complete new builds of products?  When we were mass buying up the SSD's they did not come through and keep producing 50,000 more they retired it in the US.  We can cause spikes shortages and out of stocks but to think that Lego adjusts their overall marketing strategy based upon the frenzy of people scooping up something like Town Hall and that they either were going to retire it or no will not retire it based on the last few days of sales I think makes a much higher opinion of ourselves than we deserve in terms of their overall strategy.  The majority of their sales goes to end users (through authorized retailers) and direct through LEGO Shop at Home.  In the US I think they do not like at all what most of us do buying up sets are doing and they try to ban and block it where ever possible so that the sets are available for their original intended base.  But I do not think there is any great focus on us.  I would liken it to if any of you have lived on a farm and owned a horse.  There are constantly flies buzzing around the horse and it will swat them with its tail whenever possible, and there will always be flies and it will always swat them, but is a horses main reason in life to swat flies?  It doesn't care about the flies it just wants them gone but it goes on and eats, runs, and has fun whether they are there or not.  The same with Lego.  Whether TH, GE, PS, TB, ToO, 3E or any of them go away we can make small ripples in the pond.  But I think we are ripples.  Lego is an ocean.  That said I am stocking up on everything.  Cheers!

[Neosphinx]

This is precisely why TLG has instituted bans and controls. The reselling epidemic for this product has really gotten out of control and is without a doubt disrupting supply lines in the USA. This set is scheduled for 2016 yet the noobs come on this site and get the impression it is going this year and soon as a major retailer runs out of stock they all run and buy every retailer out. What is even more bizarre is the mob doesn't focus on the sets that are actually retiring this year lol. 

 

I remember a few weeks ago everyone was buying T1 Campers, then the mob moved onto Pet Shop, now I guess TH is the flavor of the week. Sooner or later they might actually stumble upon a set that is retiring this year.

 

I do agree that SOME people here buy way too much of a certain set than is healthy for future potential of said set. However you give little credit to other 'new' people here that share and debate about the retirement of sets. Times change, there are more investors, TLG adapts their strategy and there is no set amount of production runs eg. GE. Experience in Lego investing is certainly a plus in this game, but not a requirement to play it succesfully, it seems to me.

Edited October 2, 2014 by Neosphinx

[Locutus001]

Only requirement to play the game of thrones ... eh ... LEGOs... is money.

[trekgate502]

Only requirement to play the game of thrones ... eh ... LEGOs... is money.

 

 

Word.

[No More Monkeys]

I will probably be heckled for this, though I ask you to respond respectfully.

 

Lego is at or approaching being a $5 Billion corporation.  Does everyone really think that the mass effect of people on Brickpicker and other sites who buy up inventory have such an important effect on Lego that we actually cause them to adjust sales forecasts and run complete new builds of products?  When we were mass buying up the SSD's they did not come through and keep producing 50,000 more they retired it in the US.  We can cause spikes shortages and out of stocks but to think that Lego adjusts their overall marketing strategy based upon the frenzy of people scooping up something like Town Hall and that they either were going to retire it or no will not retire it based on the last few days of sales I think makes a much higher opinion of ourselves than we deserve in terms of their overall strategy.  The majority of their sales goes to end users (through authorized retailers) and direct through LEGO Shop at Home.  In the US I think they do not like at all what most of us buying up sets are doing and they try to ban and block it where ever possible so that the sets are available for their original intended base.  But I do not think there is any great focus on us.  I would liken it to if any of you have lived on a farm and owned a horse.  There are constantly flies buzzing around the horse and it will swat them with its tail whenever possible, and there will always be flies and it will always swat them, but is a horses main reason in life to swat flies?  It doesn't care about the flies it just wants them gone but it goes on and eats, runs, and has fun whether they are there or not.  The same with Lego.  Whether TH, GE, PS, TB, ToO, 3E or any of them go away we can make small ripples in the pond.  But I think we are ripples.  Lego is an ocean.  That said I am stocking up on everything.  Cheers!

Depends how they structure the production. If they use any sort of dynamic feedback to decide on making another production run, as well as to, at least partially, decide the retirement, and that feedback is based on availability at retailers(and not even the sales rate - but just plain "has/does not have for that long"), then the fact that all retailers end up with no stock (and at what time in the year) could be an important variable in their equation (if they use such equation)

[tractorboy]

Very soon, this will be the busiest thread on the site.  

Just a hunch Ed?

[legokent]

you guys really are making this worse by cleaning out every single retailer every time there's a hint of a shortage you make them extremely happy and you make them order more batches

 

I'm sorry, I confess I ordered three and contributed to this frenzy     

[No More Monkeys]

Very soon, this will be the busiest thread on the site.  

Hmm, are tea leaves saying you something?

[Ed Mack]

This is precisely why TLG has instituted bans and controls. The reselling epidemic for this product has really gotten out of control and is without a doubt disrupting supply lines in the USA. This set is scheduled for 2016 yet the noobs come on this site and get the impression it is going this year and soon as a major retailer runs out of stock they all run and buy every retailer out. What is even more bizarre is the mob doesn't focus on the sets that are actually retiring this year lol. 

 

I remember a few weeks ago everyone was buying T1 Campers, then the mob moved onto Pet Shop, now I guess TH is the flavor of the week. Sooner or later they might actually stumble upon a set that is retiring this year.

With all due respect. you were wrong on the SSD.  The Town Hall is a set that many people have ignored and will now be sorry that they did.  It should be fun to watch,

[trekgate502]

Depends how they structure the production. If they use any sort of dynamic feedback to decide on making another production run, as well as to, at least partially, decide the retirement, and that feedback is based on availability at retailers(and not even the sales rate - but just plain "has/does not have for that long"), then the fact that all retailers end up with no stock (and at what time in the year) could be an important variable in their equation (if they use such equation)

 

NMM well thought out.  I agree that our purchasing habits and piranha purchase cycles at times (Town Hall)  can make them short term recalculate production levels but I do not think we (brickpickers and investors) in the end are much more than a ripple on their overall life cycle of the $5 billion of sale or what they want to sell for how long and when to retire it, but I could be wrong.

[speedsausage]

Very soon, this will be the busiest thread on the site.

I don't think Ed would just make a random comment like this. I believe this is a friendly foreshadow.

Heed Ed Mack!!!

Edited October 2, 2014 by speedsausage

[trekgate502]

With all due respect. you were wrong on the SSD.  The Town Hall is a set that many people have ignored and will now be sorry that they did.  It should be fun to watch,

 

NMM I think Ed just answered you without answering you.

[Neosphinx]

NMM well thought out.  I agree that our purchasing habits and piranha purchase cycles at times (Town Hall)  can make them short term recalculate production levels but I do not think we (brickpickers and investors) in the end are much more than a ripple on their overall life cycle of the $5 billion of sale or what they want to sell for how long and when to retire it, but I could be wrong.

 

Not sure about that one. On the BP homepage I noticed some 'numbers' . The number here is just the brickfolio so probably not all in it. BP is not the only site for investors so if you count all that togetther, I'm sure we could cause for a 'retired' product to have just that extra batch produced

 

Total current value of member Brickfolios: $ 57,404,993.72 

[trekgate502]

Not sure about that one. On the BP homepage I noticed some 'numbers' . The number here is just the brickfolio so probably not all in it. BP is not the only site for investors so if you count all that togetther, I'm sure we could cause for a 'retired' product to have just that extra batch produced

 

Total current value of member Brickfolios: $ 57,404,993.72 

 

You may be correct, and I love BP and it is humongous but if you factor sales of 5,000,000,000 every year (at least it is there or heading there) and put 57,400,000 against it which includes current market value, not original cost, it could cause a batch run on an item I guess that is possible but Lego does not revolve around us I guess that is my point.  It really isn't relevant but I keep thinking of that Lego youtube video of Space Police where they say "Moth to the flame boys, Moth to the flame".  I think we are Moths and Lego is the flame.   PS I like being a Moth.

[tractorboy]

Has a modular or other large exclusive ever gone to Sold Out in the US and come back to full availability?