10224 - Town Hall

[Ed Mack]

Ed, you still didn't answer my question!

Did you keep a spreadsheet yourself sort of telling yourself that when or what month you started seeing the EOL sign and the date they really went OOS everywhere? I do not mean to ask you to post your chart if you have one. Just if I were you, I will probably want to keep myself a record. I guess a bit like what stock analysts are doing. Pure curiosity. But I guess a bit off topic. lol 

As Jeff said, the only spreadsheet I have is my brain.  You take some information here, some there, hear a rumor, look at stock levels.  It's intuition.  It's karma.  Whatever.  Many people on the site have the awareness.  I guess when you study this crap for 20 hours a day, you get a feel for the way things operate.  LOL

[biniou]

It's karma.

Holy **** !

I guess I have to stop killing pets for fun with my flamethrower.

[KShine]

Exciter1 and Ghostdad May be on to something here.

So, I opened up my TH yesterday and wouldn't you know it, It came with a Fortune Cookie.

 

And an hour after opening it, you wanted to open another

[Neosphinx]

Errr we have the same VIP points in europe.

So that's not the reason why these sets are still available in EU and sold out in the US of A.

 

 

 

Smart point.

 

 

Maybe they produced (quite) few sets on september, they finally didn't made enough, so they will produce some more sets, because it's (still) not done. But what's interesting is the fact they seem to have produce few boxes in september... it looks like they don't want to stock this set anymore...

There is 1 difference. No extra christmas set with orders here. Just VIP points

[macdroid]

Errr we have the same VIP points in europe.

So that's not the reason why these sets are still available in EU and sold out in the US of A.

1. In EU there is no freebe until 15 October, will be interesting to see what happens then

2. It seems there are less LEGO investors in Europe and therefore when the EOL (rumor or not) is near, stock disappears quicker in US

3. In general LEGO production runs are not the same in EU and US

4. There are market differences EU vs US, LEGO is aware of that and acts accordingly

 

I think TH will retire before PS (for several reasons that have been stated before), but I think there is one big restock of TH coming soon for christmas and then it will be over...PS will last at least one more year...I also think GE and HH will not make it to christmas, GE maybe in EU but I would not bet on that...

[No More Monkeys]

Errr we have the same VIP points in europe.

So that's not the reason why these sets are still available in EU and sold out in the US of A.

 

 

 

Smart point.

 

 

Maybe they produced (quite) few sets on september, they finally didn't made enough, so they will produce some more sets, because it's (still) not done. But what's interesting is the fact they seem to have produce few boxes in september... it looks like they don't want to stock this set anymore...

Well, we still have no idea what is the usual size of the production run for something as big as TH or HH. My feeling is that for each set, the size of each run is the same - this would be the easiest to plan when multiple elements of supply chain are involved (printing, box manufacturing, etc). Also, something tells me that they were on schedule to produce 38R4 no matter what. BUT... the rumors are flying probably around some information that there is no next run scheduled (or there is no run scheduled for start of 2015). But this could be deceptive in the sense that TLC could probably easily skip a run based on market conditions, but will still schedule it for next run.

 

i.e. hypothetically, they might skip run 48R4, but have no intention to skip 18R5 run. Some insider might have seen that TH is not on 48R4 menu, and communicated that. But he might not know about 18R5 or just did not bother to mention

Edited October 8, 2014 by No More Monkeys

[No More Monkeys]

There is 1 difference. No extra christmas set with orders here. Just VIP points

Which is $15-$20 difference...

[biniou]

My feeling is that for each set, the size of each run is the same - this would be the easiest to plan when multiple elements of supply chain are involved (printing, box manufacturing, etc).

 

hmmm I think that, about numbers of sets produced, lego think about sets' size.

So for boxes which have the same size and prices (let's say the GE and the HH), they can have production runs "A/B/C/D/ etc." which can mean "1,000/2,000/5,000/10,000/etc" units (so 20/40/100/200/etc. pallets)

Of course the same goes for smaller (in size) sets.

 

 

i.e. hypothetically, they might skip run 48R4, but have no intention to skip 18R5 run. Some insider might have seen that TH is not on 48R4 menu, and communicated that. But he might not know about 18R5 or just did not bother to mention

That would explain lots of things. A high ranked employee (or an employee who talked to his boss, having a coffee) could have heard that no more sets will come in 2014, because no more will be produced... well, as you said, in 2014. But that doesn't mean it can't come back on 2015, indeed...

[synd2k2]

Got 3x in from Target today. Date codes: 37R2 on all of them. Ordered 10/4.

 

Separate orders yet all of them were open, slightly resealed with some weak tape. One of them actually spilled out into the shipping container; the polys all seem sealed and weights are right, box condition is OK. So that sucks.

[synd2k2]

Amazon. Got 2 in, ordered 10/6. Minty fresh boxes. Date codes: 47R3 on both.

Edited October 8, 2014 by synd2k2

[GhostDad]

As I stated before, do what you will. Either way, I think you should buy this set as soon as possible. If you are a believer in short term retirement or retirement in a year, my advice is similar. Same goes for the Pet Shop and a handful of other exclusives that have been around awhile. Buy them now and let it ride.

Regardless, you know many of these older exclusives are history within the next year, so why play the EOL game and procrastinate? As for inside information(if I had any hypothetically), there are rules that I try to would try to adhere by and I out of respect to possible other parties and their investing interests, I would not just blurt out everything I know.

Nothing is set in stone. LEGO can change plans at will. What I do know is some people on this forum speak to the right LEGO employees and are dead on in their assessments, while others get false info. You just have to figure out which are correct. Good luck.

Just to (again) clarify something: I never said this TH buzz was whipped up to drive affiliate sales.  I specifically said that because of the order of events (first TH goes out of stock everywhere, then you made comments indicating it might be done), it did not seem that you were trying to drive affiliate sales.  As you said earlier, there would be no point to such an effort anyway if the set in question were already out of stock and could not be purchased.

 

The broader question is one of inside information: Does it exist, and how useful (exact and reliable) is it?  The advice to buy any great set that has been out for a year or two is not very practical for most people.  Without limitless space (my primary limitation), every year a stack of giant exclusives sits somewhere taking up 24 x 20 inches x 6 feet is a year I could have stocked something else that might be turned over more quickly.  Even for someone who does live in an airplane hangar, they would obviously get a better return on their capital if they bought as close to EOL as possible.  So do I want to miss TH?  Of course not.  But can I afford (in terms of space, primarily) to stock every exclusive that's been out for at least a year and is now limit 2 on LEGO Shop at Home?  The answer is a resounding no.  So I (and I assume many others are in a similar position) can't reasonably act on the information available regarding TH thus far.

[Huskers1236]

Just to (again) clarify something: I never said this TH buzz was whipped up to drive affiliate sales.  I specifically said that because of the order of events (first TH goes out of stock everywhere, then you made comments indicating it might be done), it did not seem that you were trying to drive affiliate sales.  As you said earlier, there would be no point to such an effort anyway if the set in question were already out of stock and could not be purchased.

 

The broader question is one of inside information: Does it exist, and how useful (exact and reliable) is it?  The advice to buy any great set that has been out for a year or two is not very practical for most people.  Without limitless space (my primary limitation), every year a stack of giant exclusives sits somewhere taking up 24 x 20 inches x 6 feet is a year I could have stocked something else that might be turned over more quickly.  Even for someone who does live in an airplane hangar, they would obviously get a better return on their capital if they bought as close to EOL as possible.  So do I want to miss TH?  Of course not.  But can I afford (in terms of space, primarily) to stock every exclusive that's been out for at least a year and is now limit 2 on LEGO Shop at Home?  The answer is a resounding no.  So I (and I assume many others are in a similar position) can't reasonably act on the information available regarding TH thus far.

Someone else vaguely made this claim several days ago.

[jerryherb]

live at LEGO Shop at Home again...

[trekgate502]

me casa Su Casa

Err umm Townhall

[Ed Mack]

Just to (again) clarify something: I never said this TH buzz was whipped up to drive affiliate sales.  I specifically said that because of the order of events (first TH goes out of stock everywhere, then you made comments indicating it might be done), it did not seem that you were trying to drive affiliate sales.  As you said earlier, there would be no point to such an effort anyway if the set in question were already out of stock and could not be purchased.

 

The broader question is one of inside information: Does it exist, and how useful (exact and reliable) is it?  The advice to buy any great set that has been out for a year or two is not very practical for most people.  Without limitless space (my primary limitation), every year a stack of giant exclusives sits somewhere taking up 24 x 20 inches x 6 feet is a year I could have stocked something else that might be turned over more quickly.  Even for someone who does live in an airplane hangar, they would obviously get a better return on their capital if they bought as close to EOL as possible.  So do I want to miss TH?  Of course not.  But can I afford (in terms of space, primarily) to stock every exclusive that's been out for at least a year and is now limit 2 on S@H?  The answer is a resounding no.  So I (and I assume many others are in a similar position) can't reasonably act on the information available regarding TH thus far.

I agree with you.  How can I help?

[zskid00]

And it's sold out again.  Hmmm.  

[trekgate502]

And it's sold out again. Hmmm.

I think it's doing the dance

[Sahntoki]

The broader question is one of inside information: Does it exist, and how useful (exact and reliable) is it?  The advice to buy any great set that has been out for a year or two is not very practical for most people.  Without limitless space (my primary limitation), every year a stack of giant exclusives sits somewhere taking up 24 x 20 inches x 6 feet is a year I could have stocked something else that might be turned over more quickly.  Even for someone who does live in an airplane hangar, they would obviously get a better return on their capital if they bought as close to EOL as possible.  So do I want to miss TH?  Of course not.  But can I afford (in terms of space, primarily) to stock every exclusive that's been out for at least a year and is now limit 2 on LEGO Shop at Home?  The answer is a resounding no.  So I (and I assume many others are in a similar position) can't reasonably act on the information available regarding TH thus far.

If you don't mind me asking, what sets are you stocking up on currently? Also, what set have you invested in where it was a sure thing?

[synd2k2]

I think it's doing the dance

 

 

And it's sold out again.  Hmmm.  

 

Amazingly, back again at LEGO Shop at Home with 10/20 date.

[BrickLegacy]

How many did you manage to grab in those short 14 months?

Somewhere between 1 and emazers.

[GhostDad]

If you don't mind me asking, what sets are you stocking up on currently? Also, what set have you invested in where it was a sure thing?

I don't mind your asking, but...  I'm not looking for sure things.  I'm looking for probable things.  I bought GE this year, and HH.  Also DS.  Same stuff as lots of folks.  HH seemed probable to me since its whole line (MF) died last year.  This year was GE's turn to go (after FB last year), so that seemed reasonable.  For DS, since it's on its own special timetable, I waited until it disappeared everywhere but LEGO Shop at Home and Target (at $500+), then made some large panic buys (at MSRP) to bring myself up to 17 sets.  I did in fact get in on FB last year to the tune of 16 sets, just guessing from the 2009 release date that it didn't have much more time left.  Also, it went on sale here and there last year, so could be had for under MSRP.  I didn't buy any SSD 'cause it's ugly.  Yeah, I know.

[ravenb99]

Just speaking personally I was told Town Hall and Pet Shop would go before Grand Emporium.  I was told by multiple stores and by pretty good resources in my book.  Not you're usual "I think that is retiriing soon or next".   I never ask this info but sometimes it is given out.  When it starts to become a trend I also notice how the store stocks are each time I go in and the various stores I go to (have 8 stores in my travels so I can get a pretty good gauge of what is selling / not selling or available).  Obviously not everyone can do that or yet alone have 1 store close to them.  Then you can research your big 4 (TRU, Wal-Mart, Target, LEGO).  GE has not been back in any of the stores I frequent since the whole retirement thing started.  Thats usually a good sign its on its way out.  TH and PS have been following that trend.  HH and SC both did these same patterns as well.  First Shop at Home goes then the other 3 online retailers then slowly the stores dry up and poof there all out.  Then you see some small weekly store batches and in and out of internet sites as we've seen.  For me HH hasn't been in store in about a month, GE I haven't seen for 3 months and SC hasn't been in the last few store shipments.  TH was scarce to begin with at stores and PS wasn't far behind.  Then you have Ebay sales which all of these have spiked at the past few weeks.  GE is pulling in $225-230 again, TH has been quietly going up weekly for the past few weeks until now its a solid $275 to 300.  So the signs are there and have been there.  Then for someone who owns/runs the site to nicely drop subtle hints and basically come out and say its retiring and now would be a good time to get some if you want them.  I think its a safe bet to invest in them if you can.  If you can't thats fine but even if you can't afford to store them just move them now. That way if you don't believe its retiring then you can make some easy money for the next few weeks / months while they pop in and out.  

If you just buy 2 and flip one you're into the 2nd one for roughly $150.  At $150 you can always dump your 2nd one at retail if you can't afford to hold.  If you bought them at lego you're only paying $160 a piece to begin with right now with the promos so flipping 1 gets you down to $100ish for your 2nd one.  Its a very low risk time to buy these is my point.  It will be hard to get to many of them built up right now anyways.  The 5 per limit on Walmart yesterday was the best bulk way to get them if you did want to build them up.  Theres no reason 3 modulars can't go in the next few months.  Theres still 2 out with the 3rd on the way and they take up a ton of shelf space at the stores. Town Hall was never a big seller at the store level from what I can see.    Thats why were seeing other large exclusives online only like Maersk and HE lately too.  They just don't have the room.  Some of the stores said they might have them in at the holidays briefly but other than that there online only for awhile now.  I could se ToO also going online only after the holidays as LOTR/Hobbit section is abysmal at most stores to begin with.  Literally tucked in a crevice right now.  They didn't even sell when they were all marked 20% off over the summer (not ToO but the LOTR/Hobbitt lines).  The only reason they have the sections is ToO as its the flagship and then they tuck those around it.  Once the new Hobbit sets come and go that beast could definitely be gone.  

 

Anyways the signs are there TH is on its way out.  Whether your believe inside information or not is up to you but there are people with knowledge and multiple sources have said its leaving sooner than later (on and off this site).  Worst case scenario flip the ones you get now and you still win.  You make your other purchases cheaper and if they hang around to long for what you desire you'll be able to move the rest you pickup without a loss as somebody else will buy them from you to hold.

[rcdb1984]

TLTR

Edited October 8, 2014 by rcdb1984

[Sahntoki]

I don't mind your asking, but...  I'm not looking for sure things.  I'm looking for probable things.  I bought GE this year, and HH.  Also DS.  Same stuff as lots of folks.  HH seemed probable to me since its whole line (MF) died last year.  This year was GE's turn to go (after FB last year), so that seemed reasonable.  For DS, since it's on its own special timetable, I waited until it disappeared everywhere but LEGO Shop at Home and Target (at $500+), then made some large panic buys (at MSRP) to bring myself up to 17 sets.  I did in fact get in on FB last year to the tune of 16 sets, just guessing from the 2009 release date that it didn't have much more time left.  Also, it went on sale here and there last year, so could be had for under MSRP.  I didn't buy any SSD 'cause it's ugly.  Yeah, I know.

Even if something is "probable" to retire, you are still holding on to them for at least 1/2 a year - a year anyway. No one knows the exact day a set will retire. You chose to make a leap of faith on some sets but not others. Thats the fun of lego investing right?

I don't like star wars that much in general, and I don't buy it (but it does well).

Edited October 8, 2014 by Sahntoki

[GhostDad]

Even if something is "probable" to retire, you are still holding on to them for at least 1/2 a year - a year anyway. No one knows the exact day a set will retire. You chose to make a leap of faith on some sets but not others. Thats the fun of lego investing right?

I don't like star wars that much in general, and I don't buy it (but it does well).

You're right about holding periods, but that's precisely why I want to minimize them.  The notable difference between FB last year and TH now is that FB was at the time the oldest modular out there.  Ditto for GE this year.  Buying any Lego is a leap of faith of course.  The company nearly went bankrupt on two occasions back in the late 90s - early 00s.  I try to minimize the risk of holding inventory by minimizing the time for which I hold it.  Nearly all Lego price appreciation occurs post-EOL, so it makes sense to buy as close to then as possible.  Sure, you risk a surprise retirement, but in the past surprise (out of order) retirements of exclusives have (and someone please correct me if I'm wrong) been extremely rare and involved either the UCS B-Wing (poorly rated, poorly designed set that LEGO Shop at Home dumped at 50% off just ahead of EOL; now that's a sign!) or the Death Star (with a long life due to pernicious Imperial influence over TLG).