10224 - Town Hall

[jerryherb]

a lot of exclusive sell out during Oct-Dec season, some come back, some dont. at least half the items at sah will be sold out come december, just like last year.

[trekgate502]

a lot of exclusive sell out during Oct-Dec season, some come back, some dont. at least half the items at sah will be sold out come december, just like last year.

 

Spot On!

[beatpoppa]

From The Economist, Does The Past Predict The Future (Sep 23rd 2009):

 

"...But historical data remains the best way to forecast the future. When you use a financial model it requires assumptions about the underlying assets... ...There are two ways you can come up with these assumptions. You can use historical data or a personal view (from instinct, experience, or divine inspiration.)"

 

 

All of my smart LOTR & Hobbit purchases have come about via divine intervention.

 

Edited October 4, 2014 by beatpoppa

[trekgate502]

In seriousness can I ask do you plan to stock up on ToO or not at all?

[beatpoppa]

Yes.

 

But my ROI outlook is more conservative than most. I like TH, so I bought some. I dollar cost average on sets I like.  Love Orthanc - anyone would who loves those books/films.  All it takes is building one.  I would have great difficulty owning multiple sets of something I didn't KNOW was a great build.  IMO that represents intrinsic value and is cheap yet valuable information.

 

But in full disclosure for every 1 HH or SSD I own I own way more (9476) Orc Forge, (10215) Obi Wan Starfighter and every single Architecture set, so shows you what I know.

Edited October 4, 2014 by beatpoppa

[jaylay]

In seriousness can I ask do you plan to stock up on ToO or not at all?

man, ToO or TB ... big sets that cost some coin ... both are soon to be gone IMO ... with less chance at triple points this might be the time ... finding the money to buy them is the problem ... haha

ide get at least one of each ...

[boliramirez]

I do not have much if any faith in LOTR sets...... I am sitting on 5 Helms deep that are not appreciating well enough and 5 orc forge that I have already lost some money in them..... get the TB....  or one ToO and buy the 5 Orc Forges from me !!! hahaha

[Neosphinx]

All it takes is building one.  I would have great difficulty owning multiple sets of something I didn't KNOW was a great build.  IMO that represents intrinsic value and is cheap yet valuable information.

Hereye hereye

[Cetona]

Available now at Target

[Ed Mack]

Available now at Target

Gone.

[Locutus001]

I do not have much if any faith in LOTR sets...... I am sitting on 5 Helms deep that are not appreciating well enough and 5 orc forge that I have already lost some money in them..... get the TB....  or one ToO and buy the 5 Orc Forges from me !!! hahaha

 

This has been said before and I will repeat it:

Helms Deep hasn't been gone for that long yet and it actuall is still available in some shops! So you are sitting on 5 Helms Deep that are not appreciating well enough is like saying "I'm sitting on 5 sets that are currently largly available but somehow people don't want to pay more if they buy it from me...wonder why that is...".

 

One year from now Helms Deep will be worth some serious money. If I take a look right now on amazon or ebay the price has already gotten higher than retail price and as I said you can still find it in some stores (I just found 3 and bought 2 of them since the third box was too heavily damaged ^^).

 

If you ever want Orcs or Elves the only way is to get those LOTR/Hobbit sets.

(Or as for elves you could get some Christmas sets ^.^ hrhr).

 

Concerning the Town Hall I'm also of the opinion that it will go EOL after the GE.

The only reason why it might vanish somewhat early are all those investors that are buying everything they can find because they start panicing.

I just imagine somebody like emazers (sorry budy but you're the most known big investor here ^^) strolling into every LEGO Store he can find near by, buying all the sets he can get of the item he wants and also ordering as many sets as possible online.

Those big investors don't buy 1 or 2 sets but more likely 10-100 (enlighten me if you buy even more!)

Might not sound too many but there are more investors out there than we'd like...

 

I'd say TH is not gone yet but only time will tell. I have one and might order 2 as soon as I can but I will not rush it.

[Ed Mack]

This has been said before and I will repeat it:

Helms Deep hasn't been gone for that long yet and it actuall is still available in some shops! So you are sitting on 5 Helms Deep that are not appreciating well enough is like saying "I'm sitting on 5 sets that are currently largly available but somehow people don't want to pay more if they buy it from me...wonder why that is...".

 

One year from now Helms Deep will be worth some serious money. If I take a look right now on amazon or ebay the price has already gotten higher than retail price and as I said you can still find it in some stores (I just found 3 and bought 2 of them since the third box was too heavily damaged ^^).

 

If you ever want Orcs or Elves the only way is to get those LOTR/Hobbit sets.

(Or as for elves you could get some Christmas sets ^.^ hrhr).

 

Concerning the Town Hall I'm also of the opinion that it will go EOL after the GE.

The only reason why it might vanish somewhat early are all those investors that are buying everything they can find because they start panicing.

I just imagine somebody like emazers (sorry budy but you're the most known big investor here ^^) strolling into every LEGO Store he can find near by, buying all the sets he can get of the item he wants and also ordering as many sets as possible online.

Those big investors don't buy 1 or 2 sets but more likely 10-100 (enlighten me if you buy even more!)

Might not sound too many but there are more investors out there than we'd like...

 

I'd say TH is not gone yet but only time will tell. I have one and might order 2 as soon as I can but I will not rush it.

 I think Helm's Deep has under performed so far.  It has been retired almost a year and it is around $40 over MSRP.  In the same time frame, the Fire Brigade is about $130 over MSRP.  I realize there is a small difference in price, but Helm's Deep has not impressed IMO.  Maybe with the last LOTR/Hobbit movie, it will help interest in the set increase.

[Locutus001]

I cannot agree. Firstly as I already mentioned it still can be found here.

Secondly I just took a look at ebay.com sold items and there I can find sets sold this month for 205$, 230$ (okay that one is from britain I see...), 180$, 170$

(older ones have been cheaper that's true).

 

So if you bought it for retail 130$ and sell it for about 200$ (that's the price I see for the time around christmas) you still get 70$ (probably you've bought it for less than retail though). Even if you sell it for 60$ it's still not too bad (60-70$ = +50%)

 

The Fire Brigade has been 150$ retail, looking at ebay 260-320$. This is +100% and yes it is "better" I cannot argue against this fact, but I don't know how widely available the Fire Brigade has been and if there have been any huge discounts on it, and since I have not followed helms deep too much (wasn't in the game) I cannot say for sure but my educated guess would be that there have been more discounts on that one = more opportunities to get it cheaper and to get MORE of them (+ it's cheaper to start with which makes it more affordable for smaller resellers).

 

You can say what you want, but +50% is not bad and assuming that you got helms deep for less than 130$ I'd say that +100% (like Fire Brigade) is not totally out of questions.

 

Of course not every set perfoms the same and probably Fire Brigade really is better than HD but still I wouldn't say that HD is "bad", especially not if you take the availability and discounts into consideration.

 

Please feel free to disagree but that's my opinion.

[hannibal]

I have one, which is now built. Will get a few more if I can get them on a good deal or if in store, but i wont be losing sleep if i dont have too many. After all, there are plenty of other cool sets to invest and own. It is not like "the only chance" to make it or break it... The question is, where to spend the dosh: TB, AA, ToO or smth else...

[Ed Mack]

I cannot agree. Firstly as I already mentioned it still can be found here.

Secondly I just took a look at ebay.com sold items and there I can find sets sold this month for 205$, 230$ (okay that one is from britain I see...), 180$, 170$

(older ones have been cheaper that's true).

 

So if you bought it for retail 130$ and sell it for about 200$ (that's the price I see for the time around christmas) you still get 70$ (probably you've bought it for less than retail though). Even if you sell it for 60$ it's still not too bad (60-70$ = +50%)

 

The Fire Brigade has been 150$ retail, looking at ebay 260-320$. This is +100% and yes it is "better" I cannot argue against this fact, but I don't know how widely available the Fire Brigade has been and if there have been any huge discounts on it, and since I have not followed helms deep too much (wasn't in the game) I cannot say for sure but my educated guess would be that there have been more discounts on that one = more opportunities to get it cheaper and to get MORE of them (+ it's cheaper to start with which makes it more affordable for smaller resellers).

 

You can say what you want, but +50% is not bad and assuming that you got helms deep for less than 130$ I'd say that +100% (like Fire Brigade) is not totally out of questions.

 

Of course not every set perfoms the same and probably Fire Brigade really is better than HD but still I wouldn't say that HD is "bad", especially not if you take the availability and discounts into consideration.

 

Please feel free to disagree but that's my opinion.

I am not saying it is a bad set, just that it has not appreciated as much as I thought it would have after a year(for such a hyped set).  If they are still available in Germany, what does that say about people's interest in the set?  The one bonus of this set was that it was discounted heavily, so this does make help make the current value look more promising.

[JRandall]

They will never make

 

 I think Helm's Deep has under performed so far.  It has been retired almost a year and it is around $40 over MSRP.  In the same time frame, the Fire Brigade is about $130 over MSRP.  I realize there is a small difference in price, but Helm's Deep has not impressed IMO.  Maybe with the last LOTR/Hobbit movie, it will help interest in the set increase.

I agree it has underperformed, but considering they'll never make another castle set with Rohan warriors again whereas they will continue to make modular themed shops and buildings the Helms Deep castle could be like past castle sets and jump from $200 strait to $400+ once people realize there's very few left even if it takes another 2-3 years. Anyone that's into fantasy or re-creating a LOTR theme must have loads of sets from this theme so it should be interesting what eventually happens.

[mscheaf]

This set keeps coming back into stock and then going out of stock because of panic buyers. I went to lego store. They had over 20 plus a whole display. They laughed when I asked if it was retired. I left them all on the shelf. They had no ge and said they had not had any for over 9 months and did not expect any more ever. Th is not retiring

[trekgate502]

This set keeps coming back into stock and then going out of stock because of panic buyers. I went to lego store. They had over 20 plus a whole display. They laughed when I asked if it was retired. I left them all on the shelf. They had no ge and said they had not had any for over 9 months and did not expect any more ever. Th is not retiring

 

 

 

 

You say Butter, I say Parkay

[TheOrcKing]

[rcdb1984]

that belongs in the "what I heard from a lego employee today" thread

[trekgate502]

I can't believe it's not butter.

 

Perfect quote of the week TheOrcKing.

Wish I could give you a badge for perfect quote.

 

Conventional wisdom on Town Hall says Butter alive and kicking, I saw Parkay retiring

 

 

People can't believe its not butter.

 

 

Love it!

[No More Monkeys]

Perfect quote of the week TheOrcKing.

Wish I could give you a badge for perfect quote.

Conventional wisdom on Town Hall says Butter alive and kicking, I saw Parkay retiring

People can't believe its not butter.

Love it!

And the Fat Man is walking alone. it is all making sense now! Edited October 5, 2014 by No More Monkeys

[tabc59]

This set keeps coming back into stock and then going out of stock because of panic buyers. I went to lego store. They had over 20 plus a whole display. They laughed when I asked if it was retired. I left them all on the shelf. They had no ge and said they had not had any for over 9 months and did not expect any more ever. Th is not retiring

Not that it really matters, but if you were at the LEGO store in St. Louis they lied to you about the GE. I picked a couple up there back in June or July; can't remember exactly when.

[trekgate502]

And the Fat Man is walking alone. it is all making sense now!

Yes and he is the mayor of the town and works in the "Town Hall" and will be walking into retirement without his "Pet Shop"

[GhostDad]

My extremely highly placed source at Lego (let's just refer to him as Christopher Edward Olster, or C.E.O. for short), when asked about the possible retirement of Town Hall over drinks at our favorite Copenhagen gentleman's club, laughed uproariously for five minutes straight.  I was about to ask if he was alright, when he sobered up and replied:

 

"You didn't hear this from me, but we've thought up a way to shut down the reseller crowd for good.  We call our new corporate strategy I.R., short for Inverted Retirement.  It's pure genius.  The way it's going to work, is the latest sets released will be the first sets retired.  Want a Detective Agency?  Good luck, because it will be released as a Retiring Soon Limit 1 exclusive, and only available for 24 hours.  Next modular to go will be the Parisian Restaurant, after that the Palace Cinema, and so on.  And as far as new releases...  You now what we've got planned for Black Friday 2014?  Half off 10179's with no limit.  Each one will have a certificate of authenticity signed by George Lucas.  In blood.  And on Christmas Eve, we're bringing back 10030.  One set free with each Chima order of $99 or more.  And again, no limit.  So if you want to stock up on Town Hall, by all means..."

 

At this point, he started cracking up again, so I patted him on the back and excused myself.  Things are about to get interesting...