10224 - Town Hall

[jaisonline]

the majority of folks are voting "2015" because they assume the 10224 TH (like the GE supposedly) will retire in the same fashion as the FB.  lego changes things up every couple of years.  things retire early, as expected, and late.

 

 

some folks on ebay def think something is "up" uith the 10224 as sold prices have risen $80 in the last week.

 

i assume only time will tell.

 

You say this, and then wonder why some folks (75% of brickpickers, going by the poll results, and notably including emazers) do not share your faith.  I'm not saying that you, or Ed, or anyone else on this forum is stupid, only that firm evidence of TH nearing EOL is lacking.  I do not consider cryptic remarks along the lines of what I might find in a fortune cookie to be firm evidence.  Now if it does turn out that TH disappeared for good in early October 2014, well then next time around I'll be more trusting of those who predicted as much.  In the meantime, skepticism seems to be in order.  Also note re: current selling prices on eBay that TH is not actually selling at them.  Check the sold items.  Sellers can ask whatever price they want, but that does not compel anyone to buy...

 

[GhostDad]

the majority of folks are voting "2015" because they assume the 10224 TH (like the GE supposedly) will retire in the same fashion as the FB.  lego changes things up every couple of years.  things retire early, as expected, and late.

 

 

some folks on ebay def think something is "up" uith the 10224 as sold prices have risen $80 in the last week.

 

i assume only time will tell.

Lego does mix things up sometimes.  Last year they reduced the standard longevity of Winter Village sets from three holiday seasons down to two.  So I don't deny the possibility.  I don't think it's likely that TH is EOL, but if is, the question of why is sort of interesting.  The set gets great reviews everywhere, and a Town Hall would seem to be one of those iconic sets like Death Star, Batcave, Olivia's House, or the 6212 X-Wing that sticks around extra long, rather than for only a brief time.  It's not like having a Town Hall is optional.  I mean, the nearest Wal-Mart might have driven the Grand Emporium out of business, but even the most impoverished town will have some sort of Town Hall.  It seems like an odd choice for an early retirement and regardless of possible architectural similarities between the two, I can't see how a Detective Agency substitutes for a Town Hall...

[ravenb99]

Yes they've definitely risen roughly $80 in sold listings in the past 48 hrs.

[Alpinemaps]

One thing is for sure it is the only thing going on on BP right now.

Really slow night unless Alpinemaps shares his mixels....

 

My precious!

 

I will say this - Mixels Series 1 has been good to me (and many others).  And I can link back to the post where Ed said just the right thing that made me think, "I should pick up a few of these."

[speedsausage]

To look at this from a different angle, there is a saying I truly believe in and apply it to quite a few situations in life.

"I am prepared for the worst but hope for the best" Benjamin Disraeli 

If this is EOL or close to it for the Town Hall, it will be a good thing that many people believe it isn't the EOL. Quite a small percentage of us are panic buying,   myself included. On the other hand, if we are far from EOL, then some of us will have hit our quota far before EOL and when the end does actually come around, again there will be less panic buying since most will have already hit their mark. So I say believers, keep buying. Let them collect dust if we're wrong because you won't have to worry about this set down the road if you can keep some money tied up now.

On a related note,quite a few BPs seem to believe that when we go on a panic buy in these situations, LEGO produces more to screw with us specifically. I work in a manufacturing environment and for people to think LEGO just switches gears on the spot to pump out more sets because there is a sudden surge in sales due to resellers is plain ludicrous. The cost of manpower with change over, setting up new jobs, and completely changing of manufacturing schedules is a lot of money lost, especially at this scale. Is it possible that they do it? Yes, but probably not to mess with resellers but because the scheduled life span of the set hasn't been reached and they need to replenish. Can they change their mind when the end of life of a set is? Of course but it would probably be due to how the product sells over time and not sudden spikes at 2xVIP days etc. More than likely, they are regimented in staying true to the schedule of a sets lifespan, and only a handful are altered due to demand. The RI and DS are pretty good examples. I know the DS is licensed and one of the biggest/most expensive sets ever but they keep extending its life probably because it sells well. The RI is unlicensed and one of the cheapest sets to buy yet they have seem to keep this one very limited (so far) even though, and I'm sure TLG are aware, resellers are the ones poofing it whenever it pops up. There will probably be one maybe two more runs of this set but demand will still exceed supply in the long run.

DISCLAIMER: The last paragraph is just my opinion, no facts but it is drawn from years of experience in this industry. So rip it apart!! 

[beatpoppa]

Modular EOLs no longer concern me now that I've hit my target of 30 Chima Worriz Fire Bikes (30265).

Pass the Courvoisier.

[tonysbricks]

Boy you fellas are serious about this thing. At least 8 just disappeared in less than 5 minutes from Target at 3am EST.

Edited October 4, 2014 by tonysbricks

[Crustybeaver]

the majority of folks are voting "2015" because they assume the 10224 TH (like the GE supposedly) will retire in the same fashion as the FB. lego changes things up every couple of years. things retire early, as expected, and late.

some folks on ebay def think something is "up" uith the 10224 as sold prices have risen $80 in the last week.

i assume only time will tell.

Nope, I voted 2015 and beyond because I believe it's got plenty of life left in it. As a mod you speak for the 'majority of folks'?

[Crustybeaver]

I don't need validation, I am trying to help people who don't want to be helped!

What a patronising comment, I certainly don't need your help.

[MathBuilder]

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity....

 

A Tale of Two Town Halls ... 

[jaisonline]

As a mod you speak for the 'majority of folks'?

We are all entitled to our opinions even you with that comment.

[Neosphinx]

You say this, and then wonder why some folks (75% of brickpickers, going by the poll results, and notably including emazers) do not share your faith.  I'm not saying that you, or Ed, or anyone else on this forum is stupid, only that firm evidence of TH nearing EOL is lacking.  I do not consider cryptic remarks along the lines of what I might find in a fortune cookie to be firm evidence.  Now if it does turn out that TH disappeared for good in early October 2014, well then next time around I'll be more trusting of those who predicted as much.  In the meantime, skepticism seems to be in order.  Also note re: current selling prices on eBay that TH is not actually selling at them.  Check the sold items.  Sellers can ask whatever price they want, but that does not compel anyone to buy...

 

"We don't get any stock anymore and town hall will be retired in january" doesn't sound cryptic to me. I voted in 2015, but in january and I'm sure some other people voted like that too.

[biniou]

Mister Ed Mack... be prepared... a trekkie is about to propose...

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Since we are competitors when it comes to selling, rivalry between us is only to be expected. Personally I think the TH has got a very long time to go yet hence, I don't have one. BTW.... My 5x HH have now moved from backordered to in process,

[Ed Mack]

You say this, and then wonder why some folks (75% of brickpickers, going by the poll results, and notably including emazers) do not share your faith.  I'm not saying that you, or Ed, or anyone else on this forum is stupid, only that firm evidence of TH nearing EOL is lacking.  I do not consider cryptic remarks along the lines of what I might find in a fortune cookie to be firm evidence.  Now if it does turn out that TH disappeared for good in early October 2014, well then next time around I'll be more trusting of those who predicted as much.  In the meantime, skepticism seems to be in order.  Also note re: current selling prices on eBay that TH is not actually selling at them.  Check the sold items.  Sellers can ask whatever price they want, but that does not compel anyone to buy...

Let's take my comments out of the thread.  For months, the GE(recently the HH) has gone in and out of stock and people were chomping at the bit about imminent EOL.  Everyone knew it was a goner, even though it is still hanging around.  Fast forward to this set and many people think it has a year or two left.  Maybe.  But I think many people fell asleep at the switch and never paid any attention to it and missed all the signs and recent activity because they were paying attention to the GE, HH, Exo Suit, etc...  Besides going in and out of stock, the maximum purchase amount on LEGO S@H decreased from 5 to 2 as well.   What else are we missing?  Increased Target prices?  That is not always an indicator and may yet happen.

 

The set has been around for 2 years and takes up a lot of space, in addition to it possibly being a slow seller.  It wouldn't hurt to own a few in any case. 

[Crustybeaver]

Ultimately money is the deciding factor. If funds were unlimited we would all load up on these, but we've already ploughed thousands into GE, TB, HH, VW, SSD. No matter how you look at it, investing in TH now is a gamble. If it retires soon it's going to be a big winner but if it doesn't it's going to be collecting dust while other sets make the coin. Most of us would of set out financial guidelines for the remainder of this year and very few I'm guessing had this on their list. Retiring this set soon goes against the grain, and would almost certainly shake up the way investors strategise future purchases.

[GhostDad]

I mentioned the quantity limit on TH dropping from 5 to 2 a few weeks back when folks were speculating about the PS.  Here's the thing though.  Lots of folks think DS will be around for another 18 months because of what is essentially a rumor.  But that is another set where the quantity limit was recently dropped from 5 to 2.  AA is yet another example, and some sets, like Orthanc, have always been limit 2.  If we assume that Lego will be retiring this year every set with a limit of 2 or less, plus all the usual suspects (HH, T1, GE, etc.) then they will be dropping their exclusive count by what, half?  This just seems a little nuts.  I offer the alternative explanation (also put forward by lots of other folks) that the reseller community is organized as never before, largely thanks to this site, and is having some unprecedented effects on the online marketplace, causing out of stock chain reactions that feed on themselves.  The only EOL sign that resellers can't cause themselves is a set's being "next in line" for retirement, which is why I place a heavy weight on that element and less on inventory fluctuations.

[tractorboy]

I think the poll is a bit misleading. Retirement in Dec '14 or Jan '15 is pretty much the same thing.

Retirement in Dec '15 is a different story.

 

Anyway, I suppose it comes down to whether you mind having funds tied up for 12 months or more if it doesn't retire. If I had more funds, I'd be buying as many as I could now during 2xVIP. But I don't, so I'll probably just get a few and see what happens.

My feeling is it's on the way out and will go quite quickly (in the US at least), not like the way the GE has dragged out. If it goes to OOS in the EU in the next few weeks, then it's on like Tron.

[Neosphinx]

I think the poll is a bit misleading. Retirement in Dec '14 or Jan '15 is pretty much the same thing.

Retirement in Dec '15 is a different story.

My point exactly

[trekgate502]

What a patronising comment, I certainly don't need your help.

My apologies, no offense intended.

[JM123]

Last week I studied the box of the 'Parisian Restaurant'. At the back were the TH, Palace Cinema and of course the PR itself.

 

Does anyone know that this can be an indication that the TH will be there for a while and that the PS and GE indeed will go first? Of course you will never know, but it feels to me like the same thing with the SSD: The box of this set had retired products on its backside, in my eyes something not ideal for Lego because it provides confusion for a (normal) customer.

[Bold-Arrow]

My point exactly

the poll is not meant to be a scientific one in any form or shape. It might have been worded differently, but is just meant to gauge the mood of the members as to whether they think that this  set is done by the end of the year or keep going strong into 2015 and beyond.

I define done as "sold out" @ S@H, never to come back , with sporadic sets popping up at various retailers. 

[allen9917]

I like the next in line theory but it doesn't seem vey reliable. PS should be the next in line after GE, isn't it? Why didn't they retire the kingdom joust but HH? Maybe because KJ sold so poorly they couldn't run out the old stock.

I mentioned the quantity limit on TH dropping from 5 to 2 a few weeks back when folks were speculating about the PS.  Here's the thing though.  Lots of folks think DS will be around for another 18 months because of what is essentially a rumor.  But that is another set where the quantity limit was recently dropped from 5 to 2.  AA is yet another example, and some sets, like Orthanc, have always been limit 2.  If we assume that Lego will be retiring this year every set with a limit of 2 or less, plus all the usual suspects (HH, T1, GE, etc.) then they will be dropping their exclusive count by what, half?  This just seems a little nuts.  I offer the alternative explanation (also put forward by lots of other folks) that the reseller community is organized as never before, largely thanks to this site, and is having some unprecedented effects on the online marketplace, causing out of stock chain reactions that feed on themselves.  The only EOL sign that resellers can't cause themselves is a set's being "next in line" for retirement, which is why I place a heavy weight on that element and less on inventory fluctuations.

[Crustybeaver]

Last week I studied the box of the 'Parisian Restaurant'. At the back were the TH, Palace Cinema and of course the PR itself.

 

Does anyone know that this can be an indication that the TH will be there for a while and that the PS and GE indeed will go first? Of course you will never know, but it feels to me like the same thing with the SSD: The box of this set had retired products on its backside, in my eyes something not ideal for Lego because it provides confusion for a (normal) customer.

 

I don't think you can take that is a factual basis for whether it retires after GE and PS. However modulars have always been retired in order of creation.

[asharerin]

I mentioned the quantity limit on TH dropping from 5 to 2 a few weeks back when folks were speculating about the PS.  Here's the thing though.  Lots of folks think DS will be around for another 18 months because of what is essentially a rumor.  But that is another set where the quantity limit was recently dropped from 5 to 2.  AA is yet another example, and some sets, like Orthanc, have always been limit 2.  If we assume that Lego will be retiring this year every set with a limit of 2 or less, plus all the usual suspects (HH, T1, GE, etc.) then they will be dropping their exclusive count by what, half?  This just seems a little nuts. 

 

The household limits are a function of supply, not EOL. If a slow moving set like TH has smaller runs due to lack of demand then it will be limit 2 on LEGO Shop at Home. A set with a small supply will not last long during a double VIP sale and will sell out quickly. This does not mean it is retired. TLG does not keep exclusives stocked. They produce once they are sold out. The only question is now if the Mexico factory will do another production run for TH in which case we will see a pre-order available in the next 2-3 weeks. If they do a large run then it will be limit 5. If it is a small run then limit 2. If it is retired there will be no further production and a certain trekkie can feel better about his investment.

 

The best predictor of future behavior is relevant past behavior so I am assuming PS will retire in 2015, and TH 2016. I am also expecting the BPMs (brick picker mob) to jump on the next exclusive to either change to limit 2 or sell out at LEGO Shop at Home. Like I said if you do it enough times you are bound to get lucky sooner or later right? My money is on AA for the next flavor of the week on this board. Maybe we need a poll?

Edited October 4, 2014 by asharerin