10224 - Town Hall

[justapilgrim]

The GBH has gone from $80-$90 USD to $40-$50, much higher %, and different story: point is, I'm sure there has been, let's see responses

[Val-E]

Freebies and seasonals don´t count. Only proper sets that have not been remade in some shape or form and the fall has to come after EOL so no RI´s or similar!

[fossilrock]

Like 99% of sets, you have to wait until it goes under 50 sellers on amazon, and ebay also has that sort of low number. 

Look at market street (5 resellers at the moment), cafe corner (12), green grocer (21) all of those are over the thousand mark.  Once Townhall falls below the 50 mark, i'd suspect you see it spike into the 700 to 800 range.  And as it continues to fall, it will continue to raise another 100.00 for every 10 that drop out.  Right now, you just have too many skittish "investors" that want to see 1000.00 returns less than a year into it, and they aren't seeing it, so they are rushing out the door.  That's just not reasonable, but it's typical of most of the types that can't wait more than a year to sell their stock.  I'd say about 80% of "investors" that buy lego behave like this and just don't have the patience to see good returns late in the life cycle.

Pet Shop will more than likely take even longer to hit that 1000.00 mark, but it eventually will as well. 

Edited December 14, 2015 by fossilrock

[tractorboy]

15 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

So, any other set that has taken a 150 euro negative hit in its growth cycle? Let´s open the field to a 100 euros if no takers. I´m thinking 7965 and 10199 are thereabouts but remakes were the explanation.

Where are you getting €150 negative growth from? I sold one in October for €480 plus shipping. The lowest BIN I see on ebay EU now is €458 plus shipping.

Most of the recent ebay sales have been auctions, which will always drive the price down if there are many auctions going on at once. These sellers aren't serious investors. They are people who might own one or two TH and are trying to get money before Christmas. Wait until Christmas has passed, and we'll see how many auctions there are going on at once.

[asharerin]

No set appreciates in a straight line up. Look at the attached price chart for 10179. For the longest time everyone thought this set would never cross $2k. This is where I bought mine. Look where we are now. Same story goes for every other "special" set. Once the number of sellers drops below the magic number there is a very nice spike up and all the previous sellers give themselves a nice deserved face palm.

In a cycle there are always multiple what I like to call face palm points. We have all been there but sooner or later it gets tiresome so you learn to forget the short term ups and downs and just wait it out if the long term game is your thing.

Specifically relating to 10224 we had a face palm point in the mid $300's and now we are at one at $550 - $600 (USD). Once current sellers dump their stock there will be another nice spike up, and more face palming.

If you are obsessed with short run blips then you can help yourself by avoiding the what I consider the three worst mistakes in reselling: auction, ebay, christmas time.  

[Ed Mack]

12 hours ago, asharerin said:

No set appreciates in a straight line up. Look at the attached price chart for 10179. For the longest time everyone thought this set would never cross $2k. This is where I bought mine. Look where we are now. Same story goes for every other "special" set. Once the number of sellers drops below the magic number there is a very nice spike up and all the previous sellers give themselves a nice deserved face palm.

In a cycle there are always multiple what I like to call face palm points. We have all been there but sooner or later it gets tiresome so you learn to forget the short term ups and downs and just wait it out if the long term game is your thing.

Specifically relating to 10224 we had a face palm point in the mid $300's and now we are at one at $550 - $600 (USD). Once current sellers dump their stock there will be another nice spike up, and more face palming.

If you are obsessed with short run blips then you can help yourself by avoiding the what I consider the three worst mistakes in reselling: auction, ebay, christmas time.  

This could pretty much be the chart image for most major sets (different values of course).  Rarely is it a straight line.  Kinda looks like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones chart.

[Guest]

If only this were still 2010 and there weren't a bazillion resellers....

[fossilrock]

Well it is 2015, and explain how on amazon, target, and walmart right now, pretty much all star wars sets, except for maybe a handful are in stock for online purchase.  On amazon, just about every set is in the reseller market, and all are either 2x, or close.  No way is that due to strictly resellers.  That's demand from consumers, which seem to be growing more and more each day.

So, while it's not 2010, it's evident there are a heck of a lot more people interested in this hobby than ever before.  Maybe, creator oriented sets are not so hot at the moment, but it sure seems like a lot of other things are.  To proclaim such doom and gloom all the time, is either just fearmongering, or a complete absent minded assessment of reality.

[Kenxxx]

I used to live in Brazil some years ago, so I'm always curious about Lego in Brazil... family there tells me it is a "rich kids only" toy... and with prices at least double our typical RRP, I can understand that.  There is a Lego "shop" site, that looks very much like a Lego group site, but appears to be run by a third party licensee (I presume). There is no link to it on the official shop.lego.com site. Their offerings are always very limited... but one item they've had listed for years is 10224 Town Hall. A couple years ago, the price of R$1299.99 was astronomical.  But the currency has taken a dive over the past year. Now at R$3.90 = US$1... that makes the Town Hall about US$ 333.33 (+ $10 delivery) if the site can be trusted.  In fact, if you live in Brazil, they offer "interest free" 10 monthly payments of R$ 129.99. Interesting, no? http://www.legobrasil.com.br/lego-creator-expert-town-hall/p

Edited February 6, 2016 by Kenxxx

[pat_teeth_hurt]

Looks like the latest sales on ebay US the last week are around $570 - $580.  Seems to be gaining momentum again.

[asharerin]

Still a while to go before we hit the magic number of sellers for a real pop in price, but we are definitely getting closer. This time next year?

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, asharerin said:

Still a while to go before we hit the magic number of sellers for a real pop in price, but we are definitely getting closer. This time next year?

Ufff, I think it´ll take longer. Look at all those GE and FB´s still around.

[Crustybeaver]

I would guess you won't see a shortage of any mainstream set again. FB's, GE's, Sandcrawlers etc etc will all be widely available for a good five to ten years after retirement.

[asharerin]

10 minutes ago, Crustybeaver said:

I would guess you won't see a shortage of any mainstream set again. FB's, GE's, Sandcrawlers etc etc will all be widely available for a good five to ten years after retirement.

That is the common belief. I prefer to bet against the herd

Let's revisit 6/1/17 and see if we are at $590 or $800 on this one.

Edited June 1, 2016 by asharerin

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, asharerin said:

That is the common belief. I prefer to bet against the herd

Let's revisit 6/1/17 and see if we are at $590 or $800 on this one.

Closer to 500 than 800, I predict. Will be interesting to see how it fares in comparison to DS and Tumbler in a year´s time.

[asharerin]

In a year I would expect DS ~ $900, Tumbler $375. GE $450+

[Val-E]

2 minutes ago, asharerin said:

In a year I would expect DS ~ $900, Tumbler $375. GE $450+

Sir, your optimism is a thing to admire!

[jaisonline]

5 minutes ago, asharerin said:

In a year I would expect DS ~ $900, Tumbler $375. GE $450+

i agree about the tumbler.  not sure about the GE and DS prices.  however, GEs are still kinda hard to bricklink because of the dark green windows

[Val-E]

4 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

i agree about the tumbler.  not sure about the GE and DS prices.  however, GEs are still kinda hard to bricklink because of the dark green windows

We also have to factor in that there should be at least one modular retirement this year and maybe even a new model in 2017 whereas DS has the looming remake. Tumbler should have been a banker but here in Europe there is still chronic oversupply that will impede it breaking the 320 euros figure for some time.

[asharerin]

12 minutes ago, Val-E said:

Sir, your optimism is a thing to admire!

Just remember to come back in a year and like my post if I am correct

[Val-E]

Just now, asharerin said:

Just remember to come back in a year and like my post if I am correct

I´ll be richer too so everything is awesome. Now if only it weren´t for those Benny´s Spaceships, AA´s and GP Racers.....

[Simon74]

On 2/6/2016 at 6:11 PM, Kenxxx said:

I used to live in Brazil some years ago, so I'm always curious about Lego in Brazil... family there tells me it is a "rich kids only" toy... and with prices at least double our typical RRP, I can understand that.  There is a Lego "shop" site, that looks very much like a Lego group site, but appears to be run by a third party licensee (I presume). There is no link to it on the official shop.lego.com site. Their offerings are always very limited... but one item they've had listed for years is 10224 Town Hall. A couple years ago, the price of R$1299.99 was astronomical.  But the currency has taken a dive over the past year. Now at R$3.90 = US$1... that makes the Town Hall about US$ 333.33 (+ $10 delivery) if the site can be trusted.  In fact, if you live in Brazil, they offer "interest free" 10 monthly payments of R$ 129.99. Interesting, no? http://www.legobrasil.com.br/lego-creator-expert-town-hall/p

Your thoughts motivated me to watch around and sure thing last weekend found used TH for BRL 1,000 on the local ebay, purchased then seller following day told me it was sold privately to other person couple hours before I clicked on the 'buy it now'. Kept looking and sure thing found another used set at BRL 1,500, offered BRL 1,300 and seller accepted. Extremely well kept, built over the weekend with daughters. Will post more info the 'what did you buy today'. Thanks again, Kenxxx!

[kos999]

Anybody buying any set after retirement in a much higher price, can be considered as "investor".  There are 2 kind of investors out there.  The long term and the short term “investors” . Until now the second group defines prices, they usually try to make a margin between 70-100% .  With the margin of 150% at the moment all of them will sell and be very happy to invest in something else and put also some money in pocket. From the next months the long term investors will come in the forefront. How much they are willing to wait? Unknown! Maybe months,  maybe years. I will wait even years with the risk to loose money (if a new version comes, if economic environment falls in parts, if people get tired of this hobby etc.) .  But its a risk that i am willing to take in order to make a margin of 600-800%. Of course, as investor,  if you see the opportunity to go in another set with short term income, you take this road.  I see already one coming soon!  J  How many are like me? Maybe no-one,  maybe many. 

[Brian Briggs]

4 hours ago, kos999 said:

I will wait even years with the risk to loose money (if a new version comes, if economic environment falls in parts, if people get tired of this hobby etc.) .  But its a risk that i am willing to take in order to make a margin of 600-800%.

Do you always aim for a margin of 600-800% before you sell a set again? Or just in this case?

[Emodular]

9 hours ago, kos999 said:

Anybody buying any set after retirement in a much higher price, can be considered as "investor".  There are 2 kind of investors out there.  The long term and the short term “investors” . Until now the second group defines prices, they usually try to make a margin between 70-100% .  With the margin of 150% at the moment all of them will sell and be very happy to invest in something else and put also some money in pocket. From the next months the long term investors will come in the forefront. How much they are willing to wait? Unknown! Maybe months,  maybe years. I will wait even years with the risk to loose money (if a new version comes, if economic environment falls in parts, if people get tired of this hobby etc.) .  But its a risk that i am willing to take in order to make a margin of 600-800%. Of course, as investor,  if you see the opportunity to go in another set with short term income, you take this road.  I see already one coming soon!  J  How many are like me? Maybe no-one,  maybe many. 

 

 

What's your take on the Town Hall chinese knockoff and how that will affect this set?