10224 - Town Hall

[c666187]

He's both cornering and controlling the market. j/k

Sounds a lot like Mark buying the 41999 ar $400.

[Darth_Raichu]

Sounds a lot like Mark buying the 41999 ar $400.

So hit it hard while the iron is still hot ?  When he stopped buying, the price stopped growing

[Kenxxx]

I'm sure there are a variety of buyers contributing to the run...

 

1. Certainly some old investors are piling in. 

2. New investors are created by the Christmas season... people who had to pay $80 for an advent calendar decide, "I can do this!"

3. There's folks who got their first or second modular at Christmas and decide they've got a new hobby now.  

4. More seasoned modular builders who were hoping it was coming back, ... now realize it's not, so they'd better get theirs now.

5. Other's with Christmas money, gift cards, and ebay bucks to spend...

 

It adds up to a perfect storm.  Certainly it will not continue on this trajectory, but it is a very nice early "ramp up" for those who are holding.  I doubt it will go back down.

[No More Monkeys]

I'm sure there are a variety of buyers contributing to the run...

 

1. Certainly some old investors are piling in. 

2. New investors are created by the Christmas season... people who had to pay $80 for an advent calendar decide, "I can do this!"

3. There's folks who got their first or second modular at Christmas and decide they've got a new hobby now.  

4. More seasoned modular builders who were hoping it was coming back, ... now realize it's not, so they'd better get theirs now.

5. Other's with Christmas money, gift cards, and ebay bucks to spend...

 

It adds up to a perfect storm.  Certainly it will not continue on this trajectory, but it is a very nice early "ramp up" for those who are holding.  I doubt it will go back down.

I think SSD was/is following somewhat similar pattern...

[Val-E]

I have only sold my damaged box ones so far and am sure none were bought by resellers.  I do agree with Ed though which is why I expressed worry at the spike. If real buyers are paying those prices then so be it but I have an inkling that a lot are being bought to be resold and that is not healthy because normal buyers will draw a line at what they will pay in the short term.

[justapilgrim]

Over analysis

Which is still fun.

Look at Christmas. Lego had all kinds of new sets, but didn't release them until after Christmas. People had $$ to spend, and spent it on what was available. (Yes their are the exceptions of people that over pay for the new stuff).

That dried up a lot of old stock and lego got christmas sale AND Jan sales. Modulars: makes sense to only have 1-2 out. Don't sell a ton to average Joe, and the people with more money to spend will just buy what is available (see xmas sales). So...TH GE are dead and while everyone scrambling for PS the PC is going to go before people have their allotted numbers

And R2? There will be something else to fill the void

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

[Val-E]

And now completely removed from Lego shop EU.

[BrickU]

Investors are crazy & panic all the time.  Money & Power control every market.  Look at Oil.    

[mscheaf]

Investors are crazy & panic all the time.  Money & Power control every market.  Look at Oil.    

 

Thanks, I thought it was altruism and good intentions and sympathy

[Mos_Eisley]

So many keep comparing this set's trajectory to RI and 41999 but neither are the same. Both of those sets peaked very early after their initial release, only to be followed by more sets showing up. In the case of 41999, the second batch was much less than the additional batches of RIs, but the 41999 situation was different since Mark really was cornering the market and creating a price that otherwise wouldn't have been supported so quickly. Regardless, both RI and 41999 both enjoyed relatively short productions runs and investor hype right from the start which lead to stupid prices out of the gate. TH had a regular (although shorter than most expected) production run and a pretty standard product life. Could there be a short term dip in price? Possibly, but Darin isn't buying hundreds of these and unless another large production run shows up, there's no way this set goes anywhere but up since it's in an entirely different league than RI and 41999.

[Ed Mack]

Or just lets be blunt - how much of the upsurge is darin-related?

I don't like to say names...but...

 

At $400, this set might be a deal...or....maybe the $400 was better spent on two Tumblers.  

[biking_tiger]

I don't like to say names...but...

 

At $400, this set might be a deal...or....maybe the $400 was better spent on two Tumblers.  

 

Posts like this are how we know it's the real Ed Mack.

[Ed Mack]

I think SSD was/is following somewhat similar pattern...

Don't worry about the SSD...The best days are ahead.

[Val-E]

Different price points, production durations and quantities, different buyers and maybe different sellers.

 

The one thing about trying to corner the market is that sometimes the market will corner you first.  Acquiring 100 town halls at 400-500 USD means it will take a very long time to turn a profit on those after fees and that capital is tied up. You will always be a step behind the people that bought at RRP or below, sold up and reinvested which is maybe what Ed

Edited January 21, 2015 by valenciaeric

[justapilgrim]

I used the $200 I made from mixels last week for 2 HE, budgeting next $200 for PS and starting my PC stash

The only THs I have were using similar strategy

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

[marcandre]

 

Turning 200 USD on a TH or crawler  and reinvesting immediately in a soon to retire item to turn a further 100 USD within the same year is more efficient and less risky than holding for 5 years to make the same money on one item. What extra benefit did the guy who hoarded crawlers get one year later? The price curve has more or less flattened.

 

I am following this plan. Hoping to turn each of my THs into a pair of Sea Cows. Almost there...

[Ciglione]

Different price points, production durations and quantities, different buyers and maybe different sellers.

 

The one thing about trying to corner the market is that sometimes the market will corner you first.  Acquiring 100 town halls at 400-500 USD means it will take a very long time to turn a profit on those after fees and that capital is tied up. You will always be a step behind the people that bought at RRP or below, sold up and reinvested which is maybe what Ed

[Val-E]

Well if he did all that then we have the origin of a bubble! Carlos Slim probably has other things on his mind than investing in LEGO, but who knows?

[bricketycricket]

Turning 200 USD on a TH or crawler  and reinvesting immediately in a soon to retire item to turn a further 100 USD within the same year is more efficient and less risky than holding for 5 years to make the same money on one item. What extra benefit did the guy who hoarded crawlers get one year later? The price curve has more or less flattened.

TH vs crawler is an apples to oranges comparison. I agree that you can be successful just selling after the initial post-EOL price-spike but I would be cautious doing so with certain sets. I'd employ that strategy with a GE, for example, but I'd be a little more patient with a TH. Furthermore, since so many sets vanished at the end of 2014, I wouldn't sell a TH right now to reinvest because I don't believe there are any imminent retirements that would make that strategy worthwhile at this point in time.

[mscheaf]

TH vs crawler is an apples to oranges comparison. I agree that you can be successful just selling after the initial post-EOL price-spike but I would be cautious doing so with certain sets. I'd employ that strategy with a GE, for example, but I'd be a little more patient with a TH. Furthermore, since so many sets vanished at the end of 2014, I wouldn't sell a TH right now to reinvest because I don't believe there are any imminent retirements that would make that strategy worthwhile at this point in time.

 

Haven't you heard? Palace Cinema and Pet Shop and Red 5 and Tower Bridge and.........

[Ciglione]

Town Hall vanished suddenly and fast. Without any notice. Even many veterans here were laughing away the (in my opinion) strong rumours that it would leave us soon. So I would not recommend to sell it now. This still has alot of room to grow. But if you cannot resist or need the money to keep your business rolling please do as you wish. 

 

For R2 I use another strategy. When it reaches a net value (after fees) of 300 euro I will sell 35% of them. The rest I keep for a bit longer and decide then and see where it ends.

 

GE is performing really well here in Europe. More than I expected. It is at the FB level already. Quite impressive!

 

Lego investing is not easy and not always logical. Which is good. Or everyone would start doing it. 

[bricketycricket]

Haven't you heard? Palace Cinema and Pet Shop and Red 5 and Tower Bridge and.........

...and Slave I

[biking_tiger]

...and Slave I

 

It's already retired. It happened on the 2nd.

[Val-E]

and RI - that

[Ed Mack]

Town Hall vanished suddenly and fast. Without any notice. Even many veterans here were laughing away the (in my opinion) strong rumours that it would leave us soon. So I would not recommend to sell it now. This still has alot of room to grow. But if you cannot resist or need the money to keep your business rolling please do as you wish.

For R2 I use another strategy. When it reaches a net value (after fees) of 300 euro I will sell 35% of them. The rest I keep for a bit longer and decide then and see where it ends.

GE is performing really well here in Europe. More than I expected. It is at the FB level already. Quite impressive!

Lego investing is not easy and not always logical. Which is good. Or everyone would start doing it.

Nonsense. I gave people plenty of hints it was retiring. Some of you chose to ignore it. Others figured it out and bought 10 or more of the set.

The next set to retire is....