10224 - Town Hall

[exciter1]

I love it love it love it. R2 retiring that is.

I only like the hard candy part of fun dip. I eat a box over time and throw the rest out.

 

Thankfully I have my fill of R2, but it still makes no business sense on LEGO's part.

[trekgate502]

But what about the fun dip?

[exciter1]

But what about the fun dip?

 

Yes, I'll just turn back to my friend the Fun Dip.

[trekgate502]

Yes, I'll just turn back to my friend the Fun Dip.

Which part do you like the hard candy powder or both? lol

[lpj8]

I think it makes more sense to retire a set like the Town Hall because there are other excellent modular options out there for customers to purchase. It's different, but people who want a modular can get one. Really unique sets, like R2, makes less sense to me for them to retire. There is really is no other similar alternative for customers to buy right now, which might make them lose sales.

[inversion]

Thankfully I have my fill of R2, but it still makes no business sense on LEGO's part.

If we follow Ed's and my logic doing this would be a pretty strong signal to customers to buy stuff. Sacrifice of a small number sets for the greater good. Just imagine people looking at soaring prices of the recently retired R2 after the release of the new movie and starting to throw cash on LEGO. LEGO will have its substitute products by then. If it induces people to throw large cash on other sets in production then the strategy actually makes pretty much sense and I would say it's even cunning like hell. I would like it.

[exciter1]

Which part do you like the hard candy powder or both? lol

I like both equally. I'm a candy freak.

[pieman]

If we follow Ed's and my logic doing this would be a pretty strong signal to customers to buy stuff. Sacrifice of a small number sets for the greater good. Just imagine people looking at soaring prices of the recently retired R2 after the release of the new movie and starting to throw cash on LEGO. LEGO will have its substitute products by then. If it induces people to throw large cash on other sets in production then the strategy actually makes pretty much sense and I would say it's even cunning like hell. I would like it.

 

Your logic is very sound, and I agree that the strategy would be quite cunning. This is the kind of speculation I think could be nailed down by the retirement of the Town Hall; in other words, we could have a pretty good idea that your line of thinking is what motivates LEGO's business practices.

 

Still... a part of me (obviously the contrarian part) questions how much LEGO actually stands to gain by making such a cunning move. How many people are really looking closely enough at LEGO to be swayed into believing that it is even more valuable than it already is? Surely the people on this forum already know the value of LEGO very well. On the other side of the coin, there are still tons of people who donate or even - gasp - throw out perfectly good LEGO sets when their kids are done with them.

 

That's a fundamentally different beast, of course, but my point is that I doubt the larger part of LEGO's audience really cares what the resale values of the sets are going to be in the future. Most people, should the TH return to shelves, might not have even noticed that it was gone.

 

One more consideration: how common is early retirement, anyways? Anyone who starts to think about throwing more cash at LEGO because of the TH won't have to dig far to discover that its inflated value is related to its sudden retirement. Look at the Grand Emporium: its prices aren't soaring despite being older and "retiring" at the same time. (Though that could be for any number of reasons, admittedly.) All that the TH's current situation proves is that LEGO sets can appreciate in value very quickly when they are retired unexpectedly, which everyone on this forum probably already knew. It is possible that LEGO will start to be less rigid in its retirement schedule to help bolster perceived value overall, but otherwise the TH would be a rarity and probably shouldn't be the basis of any crazy changes in the perceived value of LEGO.

[TheBrickClique]

I heard from a Lego employee that when a Lego Delorean hits 80mph, it triggers a switch in Lego HQ to restart Town Hall production. Unfortunately, I don

[inversion]

Your logic is very sound, and I agree that the strategy would be quite cunning. This is the kind of speculation I think could be nailed down by the retirement of the Town Hall; in other words, we could have a pretty good idea that your line of thinking is what motivates LEGO's business practices.

 

Still... a part of me (obviously the contrarian part) questions how much LEGO actually stands to gain by making such a cunning move. How many people are really looking closely enough at LEGO to be swayed into believing that it is even more valuable than it already is? Surely the people on this forum already know the value of LEGO very well. On the other side of the coin, there are still tons of people who donate or even - gasp - throw out perfectly good LEGO sets when their kids are done with them.

 

That's a fundamentally different beast, of course, but my point is that I doubt the larger part of LEGO's audience really cares what the resale values of the sets are going to be in the future. Most people, should the TH return to shelves, might not have even noticed that it was gone.

 

One more consideration: how common is early retirement, anyways? Anyone who starts to think about throwing more cash at LEGO because of the TH won't have to dig far to discover that its inflated value is related to its sudden retirement. Look at the Grand Emporium: its prices aren't soaring despite being older and "retiring" at the same time. (Though that could be for any number of reasons, admittedly.) All that the TH's current situation proves is that LEGO sets can appreciate in value very quickly when they are retired unexpectedly, which everyone on this forum probably already knew. It is possible that LEGO will start to be less rigid in its retirement schedule to help bolster perceived value overall, but otherwise the TH would be a rarity and probably shouldn't be the basis of any crazy changes in the perceived value of LEGO.

First we have to look at the target customers. Buyers of exclusives probably aren't the ones who throw away LEGO, they are more aware. And you are placing too much emphasis on TH. You have to look at the information structure here. Investors monitor LEGO and are looking closely enough. What the Average Joe sees are eBay listings. They won't dig down to the source of the prices (TH retirement or whatever). He just sees that retired exclusive LEGO is expensive. He draws the conclusion that it's worth buying large LEGO and heads to the store or buys pricier sets than he wanted to initially.

 

This strategy is not based around the single TH. If LEGO does this just often enough to hold up average secondary market exclusive prices they can manipulate Average Joe into spending.

It's not the investors' perception LEGO wants to manipulate. After all they are riding on the same wave. It's the people we sell to. High secondary market prices are already in the social media and even some of my Hungarian acquaintances who are parents are buying exclusives because of that. And they did not hear this from me.

[trekgate502]

I do not think Lego comes through the California ports as a guest but perhaps as mentioned by someone crates of Town Halls will soon come in...

 

Sounds like its going from bad to worse

 

http://www.presstelegram.com/business/20150114/port-congestion-why-the-line-of-ships-off-long-beach-just-got-longer

http://hamodia.com/2014/12/28/california-port-bottleneck-hurts-retailers-businesses/

[pieman]

First we have to look at the target customers. Buyers of exclusives probably aren't the ones who throw away LEGO, they are more aware. And you are placing too much emphasis on TH. You have to look at the information structure here. Investors monitor LEGO and are looking closely enough. What the Average Joe sees are eBay listings. They won't dig down to the source of the prices (TH retirement or whatever). He just sees that retired exclusive LEGO is expensive. He draws the conclusion that it's worth buying large LEGO and heads to the store or buys pricier sets than he wanted to initially.

 

This strategy is not based around the single TH. If LEGO does this just often enough to hold up average secondary market exclusive prices they can manipulate Average Joe into spending.

It's not the investors' perception LEGO wants to manipulate. After all they are riding on the same wave. It's the people we sell to. High secondary market prices are already in the social media and even some of my Hungarian acquaintances who are parents are buying exclusives because of that. And they did not hear this from me.

 

Fair point. I was definitely focusing too much on the TH. I guess at this point the TH is just one of LEGO's many options for increasing the perceived value.

 

I still don't think the TH's early retirement is necessarily a sure thing, though. Although it's true that it could bolster some future sales by retiring early, as you said the Average Joe isn't going to be hearing about the TH specifically. He's just seeing stories about how LEGO is valuable in general. A follow up story about the TH coming back and lowering its resale value isn't likely to enter the same channels that the Average Joe pays attention to, especially if he hasn't dug deep enough to learn about the reason for its inflation in value in the first place. And even then, there will always be examples like the GC to point at. Even Fire Brigade has been riding the wave upwards in value, and there's no risk of that one coming back.

 

UGH I went right back to focusing on the TH, didn't I? Oh well, it's the hot topic!

[peterjames]

Maybe LEGO retired the Town Hall to mess with the minds of resellers. You must realize that LEGO is very aware of secondary market values. They would like to see their products viewed as valuable and collectible. Constantly re-releasing sets would hurt secondary market values, thus reducing the perceived value of new LEGO sets. If people pay big dollars for retired sets, they are more willing to pay big dollars for new sets. One hand washes the other.

Another point to consider against TLG re-releasing this set as without doubt a large number if "insiders" would have collected this set. Some if those insiders may even have significant numbers and be in decision making positions. They are potentially sitting on large paper gains and benefit from it staying retired. All speculation of course...just sayin.

When in doubt always back self interest.

Edited January 19, 2015 by peterjames

[waddamon]

Wow those are strong propoganda pieces. I love the comment on strong jobs. It ignores that they "seasonally adjusted" 600k jobs. Otherwise it would been negative a few hundred thousand. Sorry for thread derail in advance. If town halls shows up randomly i will buy another 20 or so.

[trekgate502]

If Town Hall comes back as Town Hall 10224 I'll be shocked and you can take that to the bank

[exciter1]

If Town Hall comes back as Town Hall 10224 I'll be shocked and you can take that to the bank

Fun Dip shots for everyone!

[trekgate502]

This just came out friday on the port situation

 

Concerns about complete work stoppage.

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a5f7bf5c-9dcc-11e4-8ea3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3PEcCQnQE

[inversion]

Fair point. I was definitely focusing too much on the TH. I guess at this point the TH is just one of LEGO's many options for increasing the perceived value.

 

I still don't think the TH's early retirement is necessarily a sure thing, though. Although it's true that it could bolster some future sales by retiring early, as you said the Average Joe isn't going to be hearing about the TH specifically. He's just seeing stories about how LEGO is valuable in general. A follow up story about the TH coming back and lowering its resale value isn't likely to enter the same channels that the Average Joe pays attention to, especially if he hasn't dug deep enough to learn about the reason for its inflation in value in the first place. And even then, there will always be examples like the GC to point at. Even Fire Brigade has been riding the wave upwards in value, and there's no risk of that one coming back.

 

UGH I went right back to focusing on the TH, didn't I? Oh well, it's the hot topic!

TH might come back for a little anyway, I am referring generally to truly retired sets. And yeah, early retirement of TH in itself doesn't change much. But I emphasised on the repeated aspect of this action. R2 fits in. And Average Joe will notice the drop in the prices and interest. For LEGO to succeed in this strategy it has to keep the secondary market healthy and alive and most importantly well performing.

 

Why does LEGO want to limit hoarding in my opinion? Not because it doesn't want us to make profits or fears we are competition. On the contrary! It wants to see limited supply on the secondary market so prices can soar high! We are not exactly a competition because those who buy overpriced retired stuff most likely buy new releases as well. High secondary market prices are important for LEGO! It wants enough supply to be noticed and constantly on the market but little enough to keep the price high.

 

Until now those prices were high without any action from LEGO. However LEGO figured out the workings of the market obviously and realised it has to become proactive because hoarding became excessive to endanger high prices, thus indirectly the increased perceived value. Random retirements of some exclusives here and then just might be enough to preserve this dynamic.

Edited January 19, 2015 by inversion

[pieman]

TH might come back for a little anyway, I am referring generally to truly retired sets. And yeah, early retirement of TH in itself doesn't change much. But I emphasised on the repeated aspect of this action. R2 fits in. And Average Joe will notice the drop in the interest of prices. For LEGO to succeed in this strategy it has to keep the secondary market healthy and alive and most importantly well performing.

 

Why does LEGO want to limit hoarding in my opinion? Not because it doesn't want us to make profits or fears we are competition. On the contrary! It wants to see limited supply on the secondary market so prices can soar high! We are not exactly a competition because those who buy overpriced retired stuff most likely buy new releases as well. High secondary market prices are important for LEGO! It wants enough supply to be noticed and constantly on the market but little enough to keep the price high.

 

Until now those prices were high without any action from LEGO. However LEGO figured out the workings of the market obviously and realised it has to become proactive because hoarding became excessive to endanger high prices, indirectly the increased perceived value. Random retirements of some exclusives here and then just might be enough to preserve this dynamic.

 

Excellent points all around. I never thought that LEGO might want to limit hoarding for that reason! These are the kind of thoughts that make this situation so interesting. Like I said before, no matter what happens there stands to be a great deal learned about LEGO from the end results.

[bricketycricket]

I agree with the idea that lego wants to keep the secondary market propped up, but I don't think the TH was retired for that purpose. The bottom line is there are a lot of sets in production right now -- sets like the tumbler, RI, etc. couldn't be churned out fast enough. Something had to hit the chopping block with the DO arriving and I'd guess lego is more confident in their ability to sell the pet shop than the town hall.

[inversion]

I agree with the idea that lego wants to keep the secondary market propped up, but I don't think the TH was retired for that purpose. The bottom line is there are a lot of sets in production right now -- sets like the tumbler, RI, etc. couldn't be churned out fast enough. Something had to hit the chopping block with the DO arriving and I'd guess lego is more confident in their ability to sell the pet shop than the town hall.

It would be pretty much tunnel vision to think that TH was retired just for this purpose.

They face the situation for instance that they need to retire something because of capacity issues. Then they have to pick. They look at costs, demand, etc., and finally might consider the strategy discussed above. Two birds with one stone?

[trekgate502]

Perhaps town hall sales were not very good and that is all there was to it

[redghostx]

I do not think Lego comes through the California ports as a guest but perhaps as mentioned by someone crates of Town Halls will soon come in...

Sounds like its going from bad to worse

http://www.presstelegram.com/business/20150114/port-congestion-why-the-line-of-ships-off-long-beach-just-got-longer

http://hamodia.com/2014/12/28/california-port-bottleneck-hurts-retailers-businesses/

I am speculating but if Lego ships containers from Europe to their main distribution centre in Mississippi, then the company uses Atlantic ports as opposed to the Panama canal to go to California just so it can transport all of their goods cross country a second time.

Ex Astris, Scientia.

[exciter1]

To show you how much we know, there were only 3 posts in this thread before 9/17/14.

[peterjames]

I am speculating but if Lego ships containers from Europe to their main distribution centre in Mississippi, then the company uses Atlantic ports as opposed to the Panama canal to go to California just so it can transport all of their goods cross country a second time.

Ex Astris, Scientia.

Lego for North America is produced in the plant in Mexico, you will know by the "R" packing tabs. Therefore, I imagine they come via road