10224 - Town Hall

[GhostDad]

@ Trek: Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's really too late to increase your investment in SC (at MSRP).  I would hold R2, but might sell a few TH to make room for GE or PS bought at MSRP if and only if space is an issue.  One TH occupies 1.5 x the volume of a 'regular' modular.  Considering that it's also already enjoyed a nice bump over MSRP, the same volume invested in PS or (especially, since we pretty much know it's gone at this point) GE may produce superior returns, and diversification lets you sell more stock faster later on without dropping prices and flooding the market for a particular set.

[Ed Mack]

@ Trek: Correct me if I'm wrong, but it's really too late to increase your investment in SC (at MSRP). I would hold R2, but might sell a few TH to make room for GE or PS bought at MSRP if and only if space is an issue. One TH occupies 1.5 x the volume of a 'regular' modular. Considering that it's also already enjoyed a nice bump over MSRP, the same volume invested in PS or (especially, since we pretty much know it's gone at this point) GE may produce superior returns, and diversification lets you sell more stock faster later on without dropping prices and flooding the market for a particular set.

I would not sell the TH to buy a GE or PS or AA or SC. Sell the TH for $300? Foolish move IMO.

[exciter1]

I would not sell the TH to buy a GE or PS or AA or SC. Sell the TH for $300? Foolish move IMO.

 

ED Mackin talks...

[trekgate502]

Everyone thanks for your significant input on TH and R2 vs the others.

 

Just got up from a good old afternoon nap.

 

I will hold tight in my positions on TH and R2.  For many people (myself included) there comes a point where (for a while) you feel like you have reached near your limit on what you want your long term investment positions to be  (not my short term flips) and like for instance on the Pet Shop where I think it is changing or we are all realizing (in my personal opinion) and it is heading towards imminent retirement you think wow maybe I should have more of this or that, this is exciting it may be going too etc etc.  I have some Pet Shop but no where near the amount of Town Halls as is the same with the other sets I listed.  So it can be a bit of the retirement acquisition frenzy.  I'm glad my strongest position is in TH and R2 and will leave it unchanged and be happy if Pet Shop and the others go off into the retirement path without more.

 

GhostDad your correct on SC not being widely available but it did pop up at Toys R Us what 6 weeks ago and Amazon 2 weeks ago, it may pop up again though I doubt much...  Was just listing as an example.

 

 

Thank you everyone.

[Ed Mack]

The best advice I can give to people is to keep sets like the SSD, HH and Town Hall. They are exceptional sets and lesser sets like the GE, PS, AA, SC, etc...will not keep pace with the Big Boys.

[GhostDad]

TH was certainly exceptional in the way it suddenly retired out of order.  I bought at every opportunity from that day forward, but without a script, 8 was the best I could do.  I always thought TH was a great looking set, just didn't see it going before PS.  I'm surprised at the success of HH though.  I bought 12 shortly before retirement, since it wasn't really a secret that the MF theme was done, but presumably everyone could have seen that coming.  I'm pleasantly surprised by the price spike after EOL, as the other sets in the theme have not done well.  Obviously HH is of a different caliber (I didn't buy any other MF sets, though I would've gone for the $9 Hearses had I been online when they were), but there was no real precedent for an immediate doubling (no real precedent period, actually).  Was there a reason to predict that performance beforehand (I'm genuinely curious)?

 

Edit: Obviously Halloween helped out HH.  But that was only relevant (this year) since HH retired shortly beforehand.  My question is more along the lines of, 'was there a way to predict that HH would still be doing as well as it is post-Halloween and only two months after EOL?'

Edited November 17, 2014 by GhostDad

[asharerin]

Trek I always like to observe the part out values of sets on bricklink. I have found for the big retired exclusives set prices track new part out values very closely after time. TH is far more valuable than the other sets you have listed. I could even make the case to dump R2 now and buy TH and HH at going prices but that involves labor and I don't know what your time is worth. Diversification for the sake of diversification is not a smart business strategy. Once you have identified a winner (or several winners as Ed has mentioned) then why diversify into lesser sets? 

[Ed Mack]

TH was certainly exceptional in the way it suddenly retired out of order. I bought at every opportunity from that day forward, but without a script, 8 was the best I could do. I always thought TH was a great looking set, just didn't see it going before PS. I'm surprised at the success of HH though. I bought 12 shortly before retirement, since it wasn't really a secret that the MF theme was done, but presumably everyone could have seen that coming. I'm pleasantly surprised by the price spike after EOL, as the other sets in the theme have not done well. Obviously HH is of a different caliber (I didn't buy any other MF sets, though I would've gone for the $9 Hearses had I been online when they were), but there was no real precedent for an immediate doubling (no real precedent period, actually). Was there a reason to predict that performance beforehand (I'm genuinely curious)?

Edit: Obviously Halloween helped out HH. But that was only relevant (this year) since HH retired shortly beforehand. My question is more along the lines of, 'was there a way to predict that HH would still be doing as well as it is post-Halloween and only two months after EOL?'

Halloween has nothing to do with that set's performance. It is a one of a kind, never to be produced again kick butt set. It will appreciate in heart of winter and the heat of summer. Call it a gut feeling.

[exciter1]

I like diversification, because it enables me hit a home run from time-to-time.  Otherwise, I'm just filling the line-up with Steve Carlton's.

[GhostDad]

Got it.  Thanks Ed.  From now on I'll only buy kick butt sets.

[Veegs]

Got it.  Thanks Ed.  From now on I'll only buy kick butt sets.

 

What were you buying before!!??

[exciter1]

What were you buying before!!??

 

Key chains

[Ed Mack]

Got it. Thanks Ed. From now on I'll only buy kick butt sets.

Sometimes it's as simple as that. Don't micromanage it. Call it intuition. Gut feeling. Whatever. Many times there is no data or history to utilize when making a decision.

[MathBuilder]

What were you buying before!!??

I was buying  9450 Epic Dragon Battles! ...

[biniou]

I would not sell the TH to buy a GE or PS or AA or SC. Sell the TH for $300? Foolish move IMO.

 

IMO, the pet shop, the fire brigade and the TH will be the best sets for display along with the detective's office.

.

No way I would make some room for some GE by reselling my TH right now...

 

The best advice I can give to people is to keep sets like the SSD, HH and Town Hall. They are exceptional sets and lesser sets like the GE, PS, AA, SC, etc...will not keep pace with the Big Boys.

I do agree, I wanted to write "put your TH next to your HH and SSD" before I saw your post.

 

I don't think the TH will perform as well as the HH but IMHO they both belong to the same "category" of winners (the GE do not).

[Ed Mack]

I was buying  9450 Epic Dragon Battles! ...

To be fair, I have my share of that set.  It is a still a great set and when it does retire, I'm sure it will be a positive performer.  Some of these sets are around for a long time for a reason, they are popular and this won't hurt in the secondary market.

[Darth_Raichu]

Sometimes it's as simple as that. Don't micromanage it. Call it intuition. Gut feeling. Whatever. Many times there is no data or history to utilize when making a decision.

 

My intuition told me to stock up on 6862 and 9450 in 2013  

 

Since then I only trust cryptic messages from Mars.. so far so good 

[rich79]

I've got a offer to change a TH against a DS!

Should i do that?

[tractorboy]

I've got a offer to change a TH against a DS!

Should i do that?

You can get the DS for

Edited November 17, 2014 by tractorboy

[GhostDad]

Wow.  I'd trade any of my 8 TH for a DS in a heartbeat.  $400 for a TH?  Absolutely.  Even great sets don't shoot straight up.  SSD, for example, is down almost 10% on eBay over the past couple months (going by lowest price buy it now listings).

[Veegs]

For any interested, walmart.ca has these back with a limited stock tag. They did this with SC two weeks ago (I ordered and I doubt it is getting filled) but you never know..might have a few actual sets.

[lego rules]

I still have some backordered so I doubt they will ship.

 

Lego stores around here have been getting a couple each week for about a month but this past week nothing.  Maybe this is done now.

[@rtisan]

For any interested, walmart.ca has these back with a limited stock tag. They did this with SC two weeks ago (I ordered and I doubt it is getting filled) but you never know..might have a few actual sets.

Gone, damn it, would have bought more. If it comes back anywhere PM haha, will do the same if you/anyone else would like as well. Let me know, big money maker here. 

[lego rules]

Gone, damn it, would have bought more. If it comes back anywhere PM haha, will do the same if you/anyone else would like as well. Let me know, big money maker here. 

I wouldn't worry about the ones that popped up on Walmart.ca   I have townhalls, GE's and SC all on backorder from this month and last month.  Online it is said either in stock or limited stock but it never ships.

[@rtisan]

I wouldn't worry about the ones that popped up on Walmart.ca   I have townhalls, GE's and SC all on backorder from this month and last month.  Online it is said either in stock or limited stock but it never ships.

True enough, it`s sad that they do that. Keeps people waiting/hoping falsely, best of luck, hopefully yours ship eventually. Have you tried giving them a call? (It`s Walmart, but maybe there`s an off chance you can find something constructive out)