10224 - Town Hall

[Highlander]

I also received shipping confirmation with no double points from my October order, the toy workshop had shipped when I placed the order.

[Highlander]

I got shipped confirmation today of my October ordered TH and noticed the double points were removed along with the free elves workshop. Just wondering if this has happened to anyone else and are you going to complain?

Thats the double points been added Alfiepops, so don't worry about them, you will receive them.

[JM123]

Received 3x TH from LEGO Shop at Home orders 24, 27 en 28 October. Nice those double VIP points are already put in my account.

[Ed Mack]

If people here feel that the 'big box-big number of pieces era' as i would put it is over and Lego is more focusing on kids or if an adult oriented set is made, more like PR or T1 in size, then people should scratch any speculation about this 10179 rerelease I keep reading bandied about here, or even a minifig scale Rebel Ghost.

I don't think it's over, but I think the boxes will start to shrink and there will be only a few X-large sets available at one time.

As for the possible new Falcon...Logic and recent set designs would dictate a Falcon in the 3000-3500 piece range with a $300-$350 price tag. But I also am quite familiar with LEGO's flair for the dramatic and can in vision a 5000-6000 piece replacement for the 10179. The one issue with that idea is the lack of interest in the Red Five X-Wing. LEGO might be better off producing something completely different, than a UCS remake.

[Iena78]

From Bricklink EU price in

[Ed Mack]

From Bricklink EU price in

[Cross]

Ed made the point much earlier in this thread and it is a very good one... even at current Amazon rates, there is a strong case for investing into TH even at currently higher prices.. It's a stand-out in a modular line that is never going away, that will always have a following, and a set that distinguishes itself in the Mods based on size and utility. And most imporartantly: unhoarded.

 

Supply vs. demand drive this business.

 

Supply on TH is extremely, extremly low.

 

If I can't finish off my acquistion goal at MSRP, I will gladly by my final few sets in the mid-three hundred range from any fellow BrickPicker.

[Iena78]

LEGO investing is not about the "majority" of people, at least not when discussing potential buyers. Resellers who buy the big sets target people with the big wallets...and there are plenty of people in that category that want a complete collection of Modulars. They want it because they do. Call it bragging rights or just the deep human need to own something valuable, people will pay for a rare and valuable set.

The one number on your chart is telling...86. There are substantially less Town Halls for sale than the other 3 examples, especially the FB and GE. Looking to the future, this discrepancy could be a huge factor in the growth of the Town Hall

 

Yes but you need the majority of people to reach a price point where the only potential buyer is a rich collector that want a complete collection of modulars.

I have no experience in lego collecting/investing , i only have experience in retrogames collecting and i have in mind Ultima Escape from Mt. Drash that was sold for 3605 $ in 2004 on ebay and 10 years after sold from the collector who bought it in 2004 for 3050$ and we are talking about one of the rarest games around. And i'm sure there are many Ultima collectors that can afford to spend more than 3000$ on a single game. The point is that i think completionist collectors are really rare and there is too much qty hoarded to really matter. The more modulars lego produce the less completionist you will find. 

 

Ed made the point much earlier in this thread and it is a very good one... even at current Amazon rates, there is a strong case for investing into TH even at currently higher prices.. It's a stand-out in a modular line that is never going away, that will always have a following, and a set that distinguishes itself in the Mods based on size and utility. And most imporartantly: unhoarded.

 

Supply vs. demand drive this business.

 

Supply on TH is extremely, extremly low.

 

If I can't finish off my acquistion goal at MSRP, I will gladly by my final few sets in the mid-three hundred range from any fellow BrickPicker.

 

I also think that TH at the moment even at more than MSRP is a safe long term investment.

[Ed Mack]

Yes but you need the majority of people to reach a price point where the only potential buyer is a rich collector that want a complete collection of modulars.

I have no experience in lego collecting/investing , i only have experience in retrogames collecting and i have in mind Ultima Escape from Mt. Drash that was sold for 3605 $ in 2004 on ebay and 10 years after sold from the collector who bought it in 2004 for 3050$ and we are talking about one of the rarest games around. And i'm sure there are many Ultima collectors that can afford to spend more than 3000$ on a single game. The point is that i think completionist collectors are really rare and there is too much qty hoarded to really matter. The more modulars lego produce the less completionist you will find. 

 

Well, a completed Modular street is quite a display and the Town Hall is the centerpiece IMO.  I think you underestimate LEGO fans and their habits.  

[JM123]

FYI: Seal codes of my LEGO Shop at Home TH's: 41S4

[asharerin]

The point is that i think completionist collectors are really rare and there is too much qty hoarded to really matter.

 

There are alot of completionist collectors in the lego world, especially for the modular theme. They are not rare at all and there are plenty with good amounts of discretionary income to spend.

 

There are 151 TH available worldwide on bricklink. Contrast that to 1545 GE.

 

More importantly alot of people were caught off guard by the early retirement of TH, alot more than any other modular to date. This includes builders, collectors and the big resellers who have hundreds of GE but only a handful of TH. Alot still refuse to believe it has been EOLd by TLG.

 

Listen to the market (both the demand and supply side). Projecting irrelevant past experiences and personal bias onto the market will only cost you profit.

[Cbenioff]

I think large sets sell fine if they come with minifigures. This is where sets like Red 5 and the B-Wing go wrong. They aren't even minifigure scale. Hopefully lego has figured this out.

[holleman67]

One doesn't need to be rich to afford stuff like this but the desire to have the set or complete the series. They will get what they want, they will just take more time to do so.

[jgschmieg3]

Well, a completed Modular street is quite a display and the Town Hall is the centerpiece IMO.  I think you underestimate LEGO fans and their habits.  

Mine is right in the middle of them all.  Pet shop on one side Green Grocer on the other. 

[thehornedrat]

Well, Ed, if so, gives me some hope, if Lego goes back to a massive Flagship model with over 2500 pieces with multiple minor ones in the > 1500 piece range, as opposed to at present, with the SSD, TB, SOH and TH, with their humongous over 2500 pieces.

 

BTW, you can't brinklink rare computer games now can you? And like I said earlier, watch the price of those rare orange-red bricks.

[Iena78]

Well, a completed Modular street is quite a display and the Town Hall is the centerpiece IMO.  I think you underestimate LEGO fans and their habits.  

 

Eu market is different from Usa , so even with a sure winner like TH i like to think about all the negative things that can happen to stop the set growing rate.

Lego collecting is different for sure from retrogaming collecting , Lego release new set every year , when you collect retrogames you know how many games you need to finish your collection. And that's why for me completionist are more rare with Lego , you almost never finish your collection with Lego.

 

There are alot of completionist collectors in the lego world, especially for the modular theme. They are not rare at all and there are plenty with good amounts of discretionary income to spend.

 

There are 151 TH available worldwide on bricklink. Contrast that to 1545 GE.

 

More importantly alot of people were caught off guard by the early retirement of TH, alot more than any other modular to date. This includes builders, collectors and the big resellers who have hundreds of GE but only a handful of TH. Alot still refuse to believe it has been EOLd by TLG.

 

Listen to the market (both the demand and supply side). Projecting irrelevant past experiences and personal bias onto the market will only cost you profit.

 

Yes but you think that in 3-4 years there will be new completionist collectors that will help the growth rate of the TH ? 

 

Let's take the FB :

 

Bricklink US

 

Total Lots: 69Total Qty:231Min Price:US $284.99

 

Bricklink EU 

 

Total Lots: 97Total Qty:251Min Price:EUR 219.99

 

USA population (2013) 316m Europe population (2013) 742,5m 

 

Since im in Europe i have to think that we have less potentialy completionist collectors since in USA wages are highers than Europe or simply because there are more collectors in USA.

 

One doesn't need to be rich to afford stuff like this but the desire to have the set or complete the series. They will get what they want, they will just take more time to do so.

 

But if you need to buy new modulars and buy old modulars , if you don't have much money you need to make a choice.

[Ed Mack]

Well, Ed, if so, gives me some hope, if Lego goes back to a massive Flagship model with over 2500 pieces with multiple minor ones in the > 1500 piece range, as opposed to at present, with the SSD, TB, SOH and TH, with their humongous over 2500 pieces.

 

BTW, you can't brinklink rare computer games now can you? And like I said earlier, watch the price of those rare orange-red bricks.

I can assure you that LEGO has something special planned for the new STAR WARS movies.

[toycrazedchris]

And like I said earlier, watch the price of those rare orange-red bricks.

 

I agree, that dark orange croissant is a real sleeper! ; )

[Ed Mack]

Eu market is different from Usa , so even with a sure winner like TH i like to think about all the negative things that can happen to stop the set growing rate.

Lego collecting is different for sure from retrogaming collecting , Lego release new set every year , when you collect retrogames you know how many games you need to finish your collection. And that's why for me completionist are more rare with Lego , you almost never finish your collection with Lego.

 

 

Yes but you think that in 3-4 years there will be new completionist collectors that will help the growth rate of the TH ? 

 

Let's take the FB :

 

Bricklink US

 

Total Lots: 69Total Qty:231Min Price:US $284.99

 

Bricklink EU 

 

Total Lots: 97Total Qty:251Min Price:EUR 219.99

 

USA population (2013) 316m Europe population (2013) 742,5m 

 

Since im in Europe i have to think that we have less potentialy completionist collectors since in USA wages are highers than Europe or simply because there are more collectors in USA.

 

 

But if you need to buy new modulars and buy old modulars , if you don't have much money you need to make a choice.

Yes, non-US markets are different .  Hell, I don't even know of any non-US resellers.  LOL.  I guess my posts are always geared towards the American market, which is a lot more active.  One thing is certain though, history has shown that wealthy LEGO fans will pay top dollar for rare and wanted sets, regardless of the part of the world you are from.

[10230]

I can assure you that LEGO has something special planned for the new STAR WARS movies.

It is the MSD - the Mega Star Destroyer, right? So large that you can sit inside.

[MathBuilder]

^ Has been done, with the X-wing. 

[asharerin]

Yes but you think that in 3-4 years there will be new completionist collectors that will help the growth rate of the TH ? 

 

Of course, otherwise I would not have invested in this set.

 

But if you need to buy new modulars and buy old modulars , if you don't have much money you need to make a choice.

 

I agree the market for $1k+ lego sets are not people struggling financially. However there is no shortage of collectors who have the resources to pay a good amount for collectibles on a regular basis.

[BrickLegacy]

The LEGO boomers (the generation that spent their childhood in the 80s), is just now entering their prime income earning years (mid/late 30s or early 40s).  The typical LEGO boomer has 2-3 kids, at least one is probably a boy, and that son is most likely at least 3 by now (I know girls like LEGO too).  This is the prime season of their life to leave the Dark Ages and rekindle their love for LEGO.  I think its only just begun.  Christmas of 2015 will be even more special when LEGO capitalizes on Star Wars.  After that will be the new LEGO movie featuring Batman and who knows what else LEGO has up its sleeve?

 

So I agree with Ed, I have no concerns that I won't be able to sell a TH, SSD or HH in 3-5 years for big bucks.

[jaisonline]

Eu market is different from Usa , so even with a sure winner like TH i like to think about all the negative things that can happen to stop the set growing rate.

 

Lego collecting is different for sure from retrogaming collecting , Lego release new set every year , when you collect retrogames you know how many games you need to finish your collection. And that's why for me completionist are more rare with Lego , you almost never finish your collection with Lego.

 

 

Yes but you think that in 3-4 years there will be new completionist collectors that will help the growth rate of the TH ? 

 

Let's take the FB :

 

Bricklink US

 

Total Lots: 69Total Qty:231Min Price:US $284.99

 

Bricklink EU 

 

Total Lots: 97Total Qty:251Min Price:EUR 219.99

 

USA population (2013) 316m Europe population (2013) 742,5m 

 

Since im in Europe i have to think that we have less potentialy completionist collectors since in USA wages are highers than Europe or simply because there are more collectors in USA.

 

 

But if you need to buy new modulars and buy old modulars , if you don't have much money you need to make a choice.

 

i would agree somewhat with your statement, "Since im in Europe i have to think that we have less potentialy completionist collectors".  it's all about wages, petro prices, taxes, etc... even before you factor in the higher cost of lego in the EU.   however, i still think there might be more EU modular building AFOL completists than many think with sacrifice.  these buyers still purchase sets but their opportunity costs are foregoing other popular sets.

 

in your stats, are you including the VAT ?  that's another 19% or so.

[glucapg]

i would agree somewhat with your statement, "Since im in Europe i have to think that we have less potentialy completionist collectors". it's all about wages, petro prices, taxes, etc... even before you factor in the higher cost of lego in the EU. however, i still think there might be more EU modular building AFOL completists than many think with sacrifice. these buyers still purchase sets but their opportunity costs are foregoing other popular sets.

in your stats, are you including the VAT ? that's another 19% or so.

In Italy 22% :-(

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