Slowdown in US LEGO Sales?...TLG's 2013 Annual Financial Report

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I'm sorry but, I have no faith in any products made in country that has little in the way of a quality ethic.  Put it this way, I had to go through 11 iPad Mini 2's before I got one without a yellow tint on the lower half of the screen and I'm also thinking of rejecting this one this weekend as the glass isn't stuck on properly  Where was it made?  That's right, in China!  I will purposely avoid sets made in China if at all possible out of principle.  Also, I'll not be surprised if mouldings and designs end up in dodgy hands due to "brown envelope" deals.  I'm in no way racist against the Chinese as most of the ones I've met are very hardworking, resourceful, talented and generous.  The problem is that their economy is expanding at an unsustainable rate which means that corners are being cut in the way of quality and increased debt.  This is one bubble we really need to worry about.

[Quacs]

But they specifically mention Friends and Chima in that statement

 

The fact that TLG sold enough of the Chima theme to merit a positive comment in the annual report means they've sold a boatload.  For example, assume for a moment that TLG kept their product line static from 2012 to 2013 with only Chima being added.  If Chima made up a modest 15% of TLG's 2013 growth, were talking about sales of $60,000,000 USD for a first year theme!  Most would consider this nothing less than a blowout winner.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I still don't like Chima and will never buy any.  I'm not being a killjoy but, I feel it would be sensible to only buy sets that you like as one day you may be stuck with them during a downturn.

[Ed Mack]

The fact that TLG sold enough of the Chima theme to merit a positive comment in the annual report means they've sold a boatload.  For example, assume for a moment that TLG kept their product line static from 2012 to 2013 with only Chima being added.  If Chima made up a modest 15% of TLG's 2013 growth, were talking about sales of $60,000,000 USD for a first year theme!  Most would consider this nothing less than a blowout winner.

Yes...it is quite possible that Chima is indeed a popular theme, contrary to some adult LEGO investor's opinions.

[Young_Gun21]

I'm sorry but, I have no faith in any products made in country that has little in the way of a quality ethic. Put it this way, I had to go through 11 iPad Mini 2's before I got one without a yellow tint on the lower half of the screen and I'm also thinking of rejecting this one this weekend as the glass isn't stuck on properly Where was it made? That's right, in China! I will purposely avoid sets made in China if at all possible out of principle. Also, I'll not be surprised if mouldings and designs end up in dodgy hands due to "brown envelope" deals. I'm in no way racist against the Chinese as most of the ones I've met are very hardworking, resourceful, talented and generous. The problem is that their economy is expanding at an unsustainable rate which means that corners are being cut in the way of quality and increased debt. This is one bubble we really need to worry about.

Hopefully they keep there Chinese sets over in Asia and let us stick with what we have always had.

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[Quacs]

I'm sorry but, I have no faith in any products made in country that has little in the way of a quality ethic.  Put it this way, I had to go through 11 iPad Mini 2's before I got one without a yellow tint on the lower half of the screen and I'm also thinking of rejecting this one this weekend as the glass isn't stuck on properly  Where was it made?  That's right, in China!  I will purposely avoid sets made in China if at all possible out of principle.  Also, I'll not be surprised if mouldings and designs end up in dodgy hands due to "brown envelope" deals.  I'm in no way racist against the Chinese as most of the ones I've met are very hardworking, resourceful, talented and generous.  The problem is that their economy is expanding at an unsustainable rate which means that corners are being cut in the way of quality and increased debt.  This is one bubble we really need to worry about.

 

I bet if you looked hard enough, you would see many "quality" brands have manufacturing plants in China even if they don't state it explicitly.  Check out this admittedly old op-ed piece from the NYT.  While this is clearly an opinion piece, there are some relevant points to the discussion about "Chinese quality". 

 

I've managed the construction of a plastic injection molding plant here in the States, and my client (who had his new molding machine shipped from Germany) swore up and down that plant management, machinery and materials dictate a product's quality, not the country of origin.  I don't see any of these factors changing meaningfully for TLG's new Chinese facility. 

[Quacs]

I still don't like Chima and will never buy any.

 

People are more than welcome to their own opinions and preferences in themes, and I've learned over the last year to stay away from steering people toward or away from investing in a particular one. 

[eyebrow40]

I'm sorry but, I have no faith in any products made in country that has little in the way of a quality ethic.  Put it this way, I had to go through 11 iPad Mini 2's before I got one without a yellow tint on the lower half of the screen and I'm also thinking of rejecting this one this weekend as the glass isn't stuck on properly  Where was it made?  That's right, in China!  I will purposely avoid sets made in China if at all possible out of principle.  Also, I'll not be surprised if mouldings and designs end up in dodgy hands due to "brown envelope" deals.  I'm in no way racist against the Chinese as most of the ones I've met are very hardworking, resourceful, talented and generous.  The problem is that their economy is expanding at an unsustainable rate which means that corners are being cut in the way of quality and increased debt.  This is one bubble we really need to worry about.

 

Here's a quote from Back to the future: 

 

Doc: Unbelievable that this little piece of junk could be such a big problem.

        No wonder this circuit failed. It says, "Made in Japan."

Marty: What do you mean, Doc ? All the best stuff is made in Japan.

Doc: Unbelievable !

[jaisonline]

I bet if you looked hard enough, you would see many "quality" brands have manufacturing plants in China even if they don't state it explicitly. Check out this admittedly old op-ed piece from the NYT. While this is clearly an opinion piece, there are some relevant points to the discussion about "Chinese quality".

I've managed the construction of a plastic injection molding plant here in the States, and my client (who had his new molding machine shipped from Germany) swore up and down that plant management, machinery and materials dictate a product's quality, not the country of origin. I don't see any of these factors changing meaningfully for TLG's new Chinese facility.

I agree about the quality when detailed written steps and processes are available for factory workers to follow. Look at Apple and all the electronics we buy.

What this really means is less jobs for currently and future non-China based Lego workers. It also could mean more classified leaks and knock-offs.

Lego needs to stay cost competitive. Unfort, it comes with what we (and many others) would consider downsides.

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[TheOrcKing]

I will purposely avoid sets made in China if at all possible out of principle.

I honestly do not see how that could be possible anymore. Can anyone name me a single set without a piece let alone minifigure that came from China?

[legofreeman]

The fact that TLG sold enough of the Chima theme to merit a positive comment in the annual report means they've sold a boatload. For example, assume for a moment that TLG kept their product line static from 2012 to 2013 with only Chima being added. If Chima made up a modest 15% of TLG's 2013 growth, were talking about sales of $60,000,000 USD for a first year theme! Most would consider this nothing less than a blowout winner.

Perhaps it sold a boatload or perhaps they want to give that impression about the theme they invested most heavily in last year.

Granted, Chima probably did well the second half of last year, but the way it was discussed in the report immediately raised red flags in my mind.

If you read it carefully, they start the paragraph talking about their top selling themes; but then they switch topics in the very next sentence (without starting a new paragraph) to strategically mention Chima right alongside their top selling themes. As though they want to give the impression that Chima is among their best sellers, but the numbers don't justify them being able to say that.

All they can say is that it was their best producing new theme of 2013...nevermind it was their only full scale new theme to debut in 2013 and that it was their primary marketing focus for the year. You'd hope they'd have something more substantial to report from all that effort.

I'm not saying it won't be a success, but the times I've seen kids get excited in a store and run over to a set, it's never a Chima set. In fact, I have yet to see a kid linger in front of that section in any store.

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[exciter1]

I'm not saying it won't be a success, but the times I've seen kids get excited in a store and run over to a set, it's never a Chima set. In fact, I have yet to see a kid linger in front of that section in any store.

 

 

I know at my Toys R Us, every time I was in there this Christmas, parents and grandparents were walking around with their lists in hand looking for Chima sets.  Ever since the new episodes started, my 6-year old has been Chima crazy and playing with his sets every night.  His Super Heroes sets are sitting idle, waiting for their turn again.  I think there is a market for Chima, but I'm not sure how big the market is or how long it will last.

[zskid00]

They're merely pointing out that Friends and Chima were responsible for a good percentage of their sales in 2013.

 

I think there is a distinct difference between what a segment contributes to overall sales and what a segment contributes to sales growth, which is what they specifically mention in the earnings release.  I would definitely not discount the financial impact of Chima even if it's just a small percentage of the overall sales portfolio in 2013 but the growth rate comparison is annualized in this report which is very clearly comparing 2013 to 2012, when there was no Chima line.

[Gondorian]

Regarding Sales figures, what actually counts as a sale?  I mean, is it when the store chooses to stock the product or when a customer buys from the store?  I think it's the former.  In which case, Chima has been EVERYWHERE, so that means sales for Lego, even if they have not been flying off the shelves.

[Lootefisk]

What this really means is less jobs for currently and future non-China based Lego workers. It also could mean more classified leaks and knock-offs.

Is a Chinese worker less valued than another Non-Chinese worker?

Lego moving manufacturing to China is a bullish sign for Lego maybe not so much for reselling but we shall see.

Any company worth anything maintains quality control over their own product even when it's manufactured in China. If the quality of Lego falls when it's manufactured in China place the blame on TLG and not the Chinese workers working to produce it.