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Slowdown in US LEGO Sales?...TLG's 2013 Annual Financial Report


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Surely lego will be ok with a slow of growth. A slow in growth means that the idea of a bubble and the effects of a boom type effect would be negated. I said it before that Lego would rather 20 years of gradual slow growth than 2 years of boom growth, leading to an eventual bust.

 

Also it is impossible to sustain a high level of growth like Lego has. It has been obvious sometime down the line they would grow, but at a slower rate. The marginal revenue will grow at a slower rate each year, but that is not necessarily a bad thing at all. 

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Lego restrictions and no discounts is a good idea but it is obvious the real reason for this slowing of growth. The reselling market...Say there is an amount like 10 billion that gets spent every year or even more specifically at Christmas time on toys. Lets say 30% of this toy allowance is spent on lego. Well how much of this 30% is spent on Lego sets in the after market. Lego made profit from these sets in 2010 2011 2012 but know they resellers hoarders flippers selling there stock on ebay and amazon in 2013 and 2014 this is directly cutting into Potential TLG Profits.
Another poster mentioned shelves were bare in the Lego aisle so buyers turned to Amazon and Ebay and payed 1.5-4x retail on sets purchased and accounted for by Lego years ago and now there is less money left to buy new sets directly from Lego.
This is the reason for the limits to avoid the slowing of growth while more and more resellers make more and more of the potential amount spent on toys. they want to control their product and inventory exactly for this reason clearly stated by them. If you think even 10-15 % of the amount spent on lego going to resellers years after Lego made their profit is not a big deal your wrong and would certainly hurt their numbers and growth.

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The restrictions are to try to prevent the slowing of growth caused by the secondary Lego market. The low numbers are not a result of the no discount/buying Limit rule the no discount/Buying limit rule is a result of the hoarders and resellers potentially taking market share from within TLG Market. Only so much can be spent on Lego every year and if more goes to resellers and less to TLG over time this can be a big problem. The buyer limits and restrictions are steps to try to slow the trend the slowing growth is a sign of the reseller impact on the market. Plain and simple....Kinda

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Lego made profit from these sets in 2010 2011 2012 but know they resellers hoarders flippers selling there stock on ebay and amazon in 2013 and 2014 this is directly cutting into Potential TLG Profits.

Investors are not the reason why Lego are experiencing a drop in sales, we are putting money in Lego's pockets every time we make our purchases. It also goes to prove that if the vast amount of new investors can't continue to increase Lego's profits then it's a sign that we have a much smaller impact on sales than we first believed.  

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1) As mentioned previously, Chima was supposed to replace Ninjago; but they stumbled out of the blocks with the new series.

If I remember correctly, they released only one episode and then had a delay in production of the series. The second episode didn't premiere until over a month later.

Such new concept wasn't going to catch on without the series. They lost months of sales because of that delay.

 

 

This isn't accurate.  Lego purposefully scheduled three "pilot" episodes on CN between January and the series start date in July.  This is a tactic they are using right now with Season 3 of Ninjago with four "pilot" episodes released to build anticipation for the show and to spur some early sales of the toys.  There were no delays in production of either the Chima TV show or toy line.  You're welcome to question the strategy, but at the end of the year it seemed to have paid off.  From the Annual Report:

 

"Among the top selling lines in 2013 were core themes like LEGO

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Abrupt slowdown in GROWTH of sales.  Yeah, that would probably be a better title.

 

There's a lot of macro economic indicators pointing to a general broadbased slowdown in growth across the globe going into the end of the year.  Baltic Dry got hammered.  Emerging markets were already in a sell off before El Cliffo in January.  A return to Ice Age hasn't helped.  It would be good to compare Lego's numbers to Hasbro or Mattel, or some of their other competitors.  I suspect all things considered Lego is doing just fine.

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I don't really think manufacturing in China is the great threat some of you make it out to be.  The magic in Lego, the je ne c'est qoui, is not only in quality of brick, but also in the licensing, the packaging, the composition and thought that goes into making these sets.  The builders putting these sets together are head and shoulders above and beyond their competition.  You can't fake creativity, and/or imagination.  As long as Lego continues to have the foresight to buy the right licenses and find the right people to put these wonderful creations together their competition can only copy.  Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.  Pile of Coach handbags and leather goods knocked off every year in China, yet Coach continues to post good numbers and continued growth.  Lego is no different.

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I don't pretend to know how successful Chima has been for LEGO, but it seems this statement can be a little misleading. I would expect Chima to add the most sales growth in 2013, because it was the only line mentioned that wasn't around in 2012. It has an unfair advantage in calculating "sales growth" because it went from nothing to whatever it ended up at. All the other lines were competing with prior year numbers.

It seems to me they are talking about their overall growth, not any particular theme.

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Looking at the results - It appears that the sky is apparently not falling.

 

I might suggest that the title of this topic be changed (maybe to LEGO Annual Report 2013).

I modified the title to sound less ominous.  Overall, TLG's numbers look very solid once again.  I do not see a country by country breakdown(or at least understand the data well enough to translate it into layman's terms), but it looks like the good times will keep on rolling for at least the short term...

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But they specifically mention Friends and Chima in that statement :question:

They're talking about their overall growth as a final dollar value. It doesn't matter what last year's sales were per theme with regard to that particular statement. They're merely pointing out that Friends and Chima were responsible for a good percentage of their sales in 2013. In 2012 Friends went from zero to whatever it was. There's no way 2013's growth was higher than that, so that isn't what they're saying. I think I need to stay away from this thread.

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