TheViralSmile Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hey all! Less than 2 months ago ... for Christmas ... my girlfriend gave her 3 year old son a pretty cool set of Lego Duplo's. Not only did he love them ... but her 2 year old daughter loved them as well! Although I have never owned or played with Lego's previously ... even as a child ... I quickly realized how "genius" the Lego Duplo's were ... in that they would solve a lot of "issues" I was having with the 2 kiddies anytime they came over to my house (yes ... my home has never been "kid friendly" ... as I have previously never had any kids)! Instead of wreaking havoc with my DVD collection ... my piano ... all the books on the bookshelf ... they could be entertained for hours on end! What started with a few Lego Duplo sets off Amazon ... led to me discovering eBay (I was blown away by what I could buy on eBay) ... which led me to discovering this thing called "Legos for Adults" ... or ... this realization that if I didn't purchase current Lego sets at today's prices (like the Grand Emporium for $149) ... I would be paying double within the next 2 to 3 years!! (Oh how I wish I had discovered Legos just a little sooner ... as I think the Fire Brigade is pretty dang cool!) Then what started out as a simple purchase of Grand Emporium ... the VW Camper Van ... the Tower Bridge ... and the Super Star Destroyer ... let me to the realization that I should purchase a couple extra of each set to sell sometime in the future! And thus ... although I am not addicted to much (nor have I ever really had an "addictive personality") ... Legos have become my "crack cocaine." I simply cannot get enough of it! I have spent hours on this site! I have spent a couple thousand already in the past couple of weeks! I need an "intervention!" (J/K ... I really don't need an "intervention" ... in fact ... more people should discover the joy of Legos ... it has got to be the best "pick me up" for feeling down or gloomy!) And all this because I started buying a few Lego Duplos for my girlfriends 2 kids! ******* OK ... since this is my first post ... I would be most grateful if any of you would be willing to briefly answer the following 2 questions: (I realize these two questions have already been discussed extensively on other posts throughout this site ... but perhaps just a few quick comments would be greatly appreciated.) FIRST: which of the following do you feel will EOL first ... or within the next 3 months (or if I do not buy them today ... I probably will not be able to buy them 3 months from now. I realize that any answer you give is speculation on your part ... so I will not hold it as gospel truth / hold it against you if it does not quite pan out as described). Modulers: Grand Emporium ... Pet Shop ... Town Hall (specifically ... do you feel Town Hall will EOL before the other two?) Haunted House R2D2 Tower Bridge Millenium Falcon 7965 Fallingwater VW Camper Van Death Star Destroyer (And no ... I won't ask about the Death Star ... haha) SECOND: for the experienced out there ... what are the "signs" you look for that something is quickly approaching EOL ... say for example ... what "hints" would you be looking for that the Grand Emporium was going to EOL within a 2 or 4 week period. (In asking this ... I realize that this is more "art" than "science" ... so all answers and insights will be greatly appreciated.) ******* Just in case anyone is wondering ... "TheViralSmile" == because anytime you send or receive Legos in the mail ... it should put a SMILE on your face 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOrcKing Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welcome, TheViralSmile. Yes, Lego is an addicting hobby for which I shall never step into a rehab center to quit....ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legoman12323123 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nothing I rather spend my mother on other than legos. Legos are pretty awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcarin Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welcome to Brickpicker!! To answer your questions: 1) I don't think that any of those sets will retire in the next three months but, here is my list of what I think will retire in the next year: Grand Emporium/Town Hall, R2-D2, Tower Bridge, and VW Camper Van. 2) When trying to determine if a set could go EOL soon, I always check LEGO Shop at Home Australia and LEGO Shop at Home UK and others to see if the set is retired in those countries. I do this because TLG has a tendency to retire sets first in those countries, and they retire the set last in the USA. This method has worked many times for me, but it is not guaranteed. If you use this method, the sets would retire at different rates. One set could retire in the US 2 weeks after being retired in LEGO Shop at Home UK but another set might retire in the US four months after being retired in the LEGO Shop at Home UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I'm not addicted at all as I've only spent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackjack Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Did you say you DISCOVERED eBay while LEGO shopping?!?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Achilles Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If any of us REALLY knew the answers to that, we'd probably be rich. A couple good answers were already posted. A website like brickset.com has availability at Lego.com for sets, so if you see something was retired in Nov in the UK, well then there's a chance it may retire soon in the US. Good ol detective work happens too: A recent example is the Wolverine Showdown set, which people simply noticed was thinning out and not being restocked... Then :poof: it was gone. The exclusives in general are much harder to gauge. As some people have pointed out though, this year a few new exclusives are being released, and LEGO is unlikely to have THAT MANY floating around, so there's a good chance a couple of the older ones could go. A set like Haunted House could be a candidate to go sooner rather than later, because the Monster Fighters theme is retired, and LEGO no longer has needs for the molds used in that line. So in a case like that, it's possible that the only HH's left are the ones that have already been produced. Some people have access to the LEGO Wholesale shopping list, which apparently is released close to the top of the year, and obviously that can give good information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seapotato Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 welcome! i'm just like you, i have spend several thousand on Lego within my first few months lol. trying to scale back now, but it's hard when i see lego on sale!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krayzie Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Buy now, regret later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcatsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nothing I rather spend my mother on other than legos. Legos are pretty awesome Could not let this epic auto-correct fail go without notice. I'm sure we all feel the same way though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt1147 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Welcome to the addiction!! ---Keep it secret. Keep it safe.--- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p8nt4lyfe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's a fun addiction thats for sure...I know that throughout the year occasional sets retire, but I made the mistake early 2013 spending about 10k and having to wait the entire year for those sets to retire (Helm's Deep, Jabbas Palace, Fire Brigade) and others didn't (Death Star, SSD, Tower Bridge, Haunted House). I've since shifted my strategy for 2014...I'm going to be waiting a bit longer before tying up capital because most sets seem to retire at the end of the year. You might stock up on grand emporium, but based on past trends it will probably retire at the end of the year. I would wait for triple VIP points and stock up during those months. It also seems that you're becoming a Lego builder/collector, and in that case buy all of the sets that you want. I have purchased at least one of every large set that I want, with the goal being to stock up on inventory once retirement is imminent. Just be prepared to have thousands of dollars put aside for years on end before you start flipping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jal4u2c Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It's a bit easier on the wallet if you start small investment-wise. I started with buying clearance sets with a high discount. In 6 months time those start to go up from their original MSRP so you can sell them fairly easily and if you want to hold longer for a higher return you can do that too. But then take that money you made and continue to reinvest it. So you bought a couple sets at clearance for say $40. Original retail was $80. You sell for $100-120. So you made about $60 on it. If you did that with say, three sets, you'd have $180 to reinvest. Now take that and reinvest in a large set that is close to EOL, say, a modular at $150. Sit on that set for around two years and probably double your money on that set easily. As long as you can afford to let the sets "mature" and wait it out, you should make decent returns. Once you get to a certain point, they will pay for themselves. But it all comes down to what an individual can "afford" to invest. if it's going to cause a strain on your money then it's probably not a good idea to do it at all. But if you have some "disposable" income that can go towards it then that's how to start out. To get the best results though, you do have to hold sets, i would say, at least two years minimum to get a good payoff. But again, once you have invested your way up, they almost pay for themselves so your out of pocket spending shouldn't be as bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheViralSmile Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thanks all for your kindness in welcoming me to the forum! I hope that as I "mature" in my Lego investing / savvy ... that I will in turn be able to "add value" to all of you who have added value to me thus far! (Because of posts on this forum ... I purchased 6 Haunted Houses with the $30 Walmart e-gift card each ($179 goes to $149) a couple days ago ... and two Vampyre Castles this morning through TRU.) Nothing I rather spend my mother on other than legos. Legos are pretty awesome Haha ... made me laugh to ... I too like to "spend my mother" Welcome to Brickpicker!! To answer your questions: 1) I don't think that any of those sets will retire in the next three months but, here is my list of what I think will retire in the next year: Grand Emporium/Town Hall, R2-D2, Tower Bridge, and VW Camper Van. 2) When trying to determine if a set could go EOL soon, I always check LEGO Shop at Home Australia and LEGO Shop at Home UK and others to see if the set is retired in those countries. I do this because TLG has a tendency to retire sets first in those countries, and they retire the set last in the USA. This method has worked many times for me, but it is not guaranteed. If you use this method, the sets would retire at different rates. One set could retire in the US 2 weeks after being retired in LEGO Shop at Home UK but another set might retire in the US four months after being retired in the LEGO Shop at Home UK. Thanks for the tips ... I really appreciate them! PS ... why do you believe Town Hall will EOL before Pet Shop ... as Pet Shop was put out before Town Hall? (Also ... why does Town Hall have a $199 price point ... when the others are around $149 - $159?) I'm not addicted at all as I've only spent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheViralSmile Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 PS ... also ... a big big "THANK YOU" to the creators and maintainers of this site / forum!! You are much appreciated!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TabbyBoy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 QUOTE Holy Cow ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seapotato Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Wow! I wish I had the room to put 36k worth of sets lol. I definitely would rather invest in Lego than in stocks... Sent from my iPod touch using Brickpicker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinP Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thanks for the tips ... I really appreciate them! PS ... why do you believe Town Hall will EOL before Pet Shop ... as Pet Shop was put out before Town Hall? (Also ... why does Town Hall have a $199 price point ... when the others are around $149 - $159?) The Town Hall has a MSRP of $199 because there are 2,700+ pieces in the set, while the other modulars have a little over 2,000 pieces. That is one of the reasons I believe that the set will retire sooner than the others. $40 - $50 may not seem like a lot of money to a Lego investors, but a collector may think so and will not want to buy the Town Hall and buy another modular instead. That being said, I do not think that the Town Hall is a very popular modular. If it is not as popular, then Lego might decide to retire it sooner than other ones. All of these are just observations, and we will not know when the Town Hall will retire until it actually does so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killhuman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Welcome to the site! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest brickcrazyhouse Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 careful symptoms may include a rash (only if you're a crazy ebay buyer trying to get free stuff) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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