The Best of Times...or the Worst of Times...69.1 Million Reasons to Wonder Why

[Ed Mack]

As many of you already know, The LEGO Movie finished #1 in the Box Office this past weekend bringing in 69.1 million dollars. Obviously, it is quite a success, with a sequel already planned.  LEGO bricks have always had a very passionate fan base, but now with all the added exposure and popularity, will this affect the LEGO secondary market in a positive or negative way?  Will it aid in the formation of a speculative bubble?  Will the market become flooded with the dreaded LEGO flippers and resellers?  Will The LEGO Movie sets be worth anything?  Just a few simple questions to ponder...

[Guest brickcrazyhouse]

I'm thinking the movies success will bring more buyers then seller/flippers. And the flippers that do join the ban wagon will be both less educated (on set selection) and only in the game for a short while.

[spener90]

As many of you already know, The LEGO Movie finished #1 in the Box Office this past weekend bringing in 69.1 million dollars. Obviously, it is quite a success, with a sequel already planned.  LEGO bricks have always had a very passionate fan base, but now with all the added exposure and popularity, will this affect the LEGO secondary market in a positive or negative way?  Will it aid in the formation of a speculative bubble?  Will the market become flooded with the dreaded LEGO flippers and resellers?  Will The LEGO Movie sets be worth anything?  Just a few simple questions to ponder...

Tune in next time to see what happens in the adventures of Ed and Jeff Mack.

 

I'm not sure why, but the last few sentences sounded like they needed this.  I think this will have a short term positive effect, long term neutral effect.

[Ed Mack]

Tune in next time to see what happens in the adventures of Ed and Jeff Mack.

 

I'm not sure why, but the last few sentences sounded like they needed this.  I think this will have a short term positive effect, long term neutral effect.

I grew up watching Adam West's Batman...Forgive my dramatics.  LOL

[spener90]

I grew up watching Adam West's Batman...Forgive my dramatics.  LOL

You set me up perfectly, I began reading the end in that deep voice they use...

[seapotato]

Lots more AFOLs coming out of the closet, looking for older sets. I think the massive exposure with the movie is a good thing.

[nolanfan34]

I think this doesn't actually change much, just the speed at which the eventual outcome you believe in will happen. If you believe there are always more fans coming in than flippers affecting the secondary market, then this just speeds growth in the short term. If you think a bubble is near, then this probably speeds that up too. i am in the former group, realizing that there is an end game out there where things probably DO tip to a bubble. I just don't think it's in the short term.

 

There are a lot of steps to come out of the dark ages if you didn't read the USA Today article and have it spelled out for you.

 

1. Get interest in a new set.

2. Be inspired to check out older sets.

3. Make the realization that high older set prices means sets appreciate.

4. Make ANOTHER realization that sale prices exist and deals can be had.

5. profit.

 

The movie should boost #1 and #2 for sure, but most people won't hit step 3, and when I had my kid I hit step 3 and started saving a few, but didn't really hit step 4 until I found this site. 

 

Probably missing some steps, but you get the idea. My 2 cents, fun topic.

[Doofy McGee]

Tune in next time to see what happens in the adventures of Ed and Jeff Mack.

 

I'm not sure why, but the last few sentences sounded like they needed this.  I think this will have a short term positive effect, long term neutral effect.

I agree, lol!  Ed, you rascal.  Those questions will give people nervous fits.  lol. 

[TheOrcKing]

The Lego Movie should help bring about new fans and reinvigorate old ones. If anything, it should bring the product of Lego in a more serious light as in people not looking at it as just 'a simple kids toy'. I was insanely bullish on the sets soon as I saw them and still am but I honestly wonder how many people will or can hold onto these for investment? I haven't wanted to build something the exact moment I bought it so much in my life.

On a slightly related note, I think the small handful of people who did not like The Lego Movie just didn't get it. I read comments left on the net of people actually leaving the theater in the middle of a showing. Seriously?

[beartrapper]

I can't imagine a that the bigger sets from the movie wont do well in a few years. I'd like to think that the nostalgia of the movie in 4-5 years is going to push the prices of these up a little. Even if they continue to make Lego movie's the first series is always going to be sought after.

[chinothegeeko]

I think this doesn't actually change much, just the speed at which the eventual outcome you believe in will happen. If you believe there are always more fans coming in than flippers affecting the secondary market, then this just speeds growth in the short term. If you think a bubble is near, then this probably speeds that up too. i am in the former group, realizing that there is an end game out there where things probably DO tip to a bubble. I just don't think it's in the short term.

There are a lot of steps to come out of the dark ages if you didn't read the USA Today article and have it spelled out for you.

1. Get interest in a new set.

2. Be inspired to check out older sets.

3. Make the realization that high older set prices means sets appreciate.

4. Make ANOTHER realization that sale prices exist and deals can be had.

5. profit.

The movie should boost #1 and #2 for sure, but most people won't hit step 3, and when I had my kid I hit step 3 and started saving a few, but didn't really hit step 4 until I found this site.

Probably missing some steps, but you get the idea. My 2 cents, fun topic.

You forgot collect underpants.

I agree with most on here that the ones that join the flipping will be shirt term as inexperienced.

Also hope sea potato is correct in it bringing out more AFOL from dark ages.

[Spartikis]

Well even IF it does create a bubble, atleast everyone here got in before the bubble, we just have to be smart enough to sell at the peak.

 

I personally expect the success of the movie to at first, say within the next year increase demand for retired sets as the movie is certain to bring many adults out of their lego dark ages. However, in time those new AFOL will see the potential of investing in lego increasing market competition and eventually driving prices of future sets. As i go forward i will certainly continue to carefully watch the market.

[BrickLegacy]

I think this doesn't actually change much, just the speed at which the eventual outcome you believe in will happen. If you believe there are always more fans coming in than flippers affecting the secondary market, then this just speeds growth in the short term. If you think a bubble is near, then this probably speeds that up too. i am in the former group, realizing that there is an end game out there where things probably DO tip to a bubble. I just don't think it's in the short term.

 

There are a lot of steps to come out of the dark ages if you didn't read the USA Today article and have it spelled out for you.

 

1. Get interest in a new set.

2. Be inspired to check out older sets.

3. Make the realization that high older set prices means sets appreciate.

4. Make ANOTHER realization that sale prices exist and deals can be had.

5. profit.

 

The movie should boost #1 and #2 for sure, but most people won't hit step 3, and when I had my kid I hit step 3 and started saving a few, but didn't really hit step 4 until I found this site. 

 

Probably missing some steps, but you get the idea. My 2 cents, fun topic.

 

Great summary.

[Sauromosis]

The sets from upcoming sequels could eat into the poppularity of "Movie 1" sets.  I think we see that a little with Lego Friends, for example the 4 or 5 iterations of the "horse ranch."  They don't care about secondary market value, they turn and burn the same concept, as with Star Wars being the extreme example.

 

You could see "Benny's Space Base" or "Metalbeard's V.2"

 

I think the movie is a big positive for all of us here.  I was at the bar Saturday night and 4 guys my age were talking about Lego, that has never happened before.

[Ed Mack]

The sets from upcoming sequels could eat into the poppularity of "Movie 1" sets.  I think we see that a little with Lego Friends, for example the 4 or 5 iterations of the "horse ranch."  They don't care about secondary market value, they turn and burn the same concept, as with Star Wars being the extreme example.

 

You could see "Benny's Space Base" or "Metalbeard's V.2"

 

I think the movie is a big positive for all of us here.  I was at the bar Saturday night and 4 guys my age were talking about Lego, that has never happened before.

I agree.  I view the movie as a positive for the entire LEGO industry...including the secondary market.  Even though it will create more resellers, it will also create multitudes of additional fans and bring a lot of AFOLs out of the Dark Ages.  I really like the sets designed from the movie and look forward to seeing some of the bigger ones get released.  I know my Target was cleaned out of these sets.

[tonysbricks]

This should be a huge boom for people already in the market, I bet we see a 20% or more bump in value over the next 6 months for EOL items. But it will bring about a whole new wave of resellers, so move forward with caution on stuff not EOL. Have to be a lot smarter and more strategic than even just a year ago.

[El Guapo]

More LEGO fans = more potential customers. There are probably more LEGO fans today (partly because of the movie) than ever before. Yes, there will be more people selling too, but the increase in customers will help to offset this. The LEGO Movie sets WILL be popular (to give you an idea, Desolation of Smaug opened with $73 million). Most of the sets that were bought were opened, and played with (I am speculating here, but based on the opinions I have heard on the website, and the fact that the target is kids, I feel this is a pretty safe statement). Also, I wouldn

[binici]

If you happen to be in the aisles while shopping for Lego sets, just see the reaction of kids that shoot straight for the Lego Movie sets.

My local Target and WM seems to be empty... Could be a quick surge, but we'll have to monitor it carefully!