10211 - Grand Emporium

[waddamon]

Apologies, I just HAD to say something.  GE is great buy it!

[asharerin]

Can we stick to the topic plz. Every thread is spiraling out of context as of late.

 

Sorry my bad. Buy lego. Sell lego. Guaranteed $$$ for everyone. Everything is awesome.

[vmnlogan]

Sorry my bad. Buy lego. Sell lego. Guaranteed $$$ for everyone. Everything is awesome.

Agreed. I just spent $37 on coffee - it was awesome!

I also ordered two GE about 45 minutes ago and now it's sold out online. Super awesome!! (now retire the set, already...)

[Darth_Raichu]

Sorry my bad. Buy lego. Sell lego. Guaranteed $$$ for everyone. Everything is awesome.

See, problem is you missed the song:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGnH6JPsv7E

Now if we all can wait until Taco Tuesday

[jaisonline]

Would it be ironic if we start keeping sets around longer because we jump on them so quick that Lego decides "hmm, maybe we shouldn't retire this?"

tell me about it.  i have so much "wasted" space due to buying Monster Fighter, Superman's Lex, Orc Forges, and Tower Bridge sets too early.  All the sets were bought within 2-4 months of when they were expected to retire. 

 

 

I go back and forth on that all the time. I kind of don't love going after every set everyone is going after.

 

On the other hand, I think there is still money to be made.

 

But the people claiming the Fire Brigade or the Grand Emporium are going to get to 800$ is just lunacy. Its not that way anymore. I mean, everyone wants to talk about the FB almost doubling already - but actually it was out of stock and had climbed in the same way GE has right now last year. So the panic buying got it to about $220 - where is it now?

 

$270ish. Not a huge jump. It will grow. But not anywhere near the amount even the Green Grocer did. its just a different ballgame now.

 

agreed.  everything thinks the 10211 GE will perform like the FB.  no way.  FB was also considered the more popular set due to the design and being an old fashioned firehouse.  plus when panic buying for FB started, it wasn't as early for it so the hoarders didn't have an obvious "heads up" on the FB like the GE.  Design-wise, the GE will prob end up being the less valuable building (of them all) as the others are better looking and not as boring (in my opinion).    cinema palace should even appreciate better than FB if it's on the market for the same period of time.  if for some reason, it retires before 3 years, it will be awesome.

 

do i like GE, heck yeah.  i just see it like the red-headed stepchild of this them.  kinda like that winter market carnival set from last year when compared to the previous winter sets.  

 

once retired, GE demand / appreciation should stabilize faster than the prev and future retired sets of this line.  it's not like it has a short production run.

[ChristopherJB]

If history is an indicator (e.***. fire brigade), this set will be around for another couple of months (even for short appearances each time). I can't wait to start reading about some seal codes.

To me, the 10211 stock is just low currently since Lego didn't anticipate the extra high demand. This set also was always sorta popular and is just selling better than the fire brigade did last summer (due to EOL speculation). This also isn't like the 10227 b-wing when production volumes seemed generally low through the entire retail life due to demand (until May 4, 2013 and still took months of steep discounting to finally sell-out everywhere online). People are buying 10211 and Lego knows that. It also wouldn't surprise me if this set appears in the Fall or even Holiday Catalog for one last curtain call

Additionally, Lego is still "allowing " up to 5 units per order although it's still backordered. More 10211s are coming and coming,

This set is not and was not more popular than the FB. FB was heavily hoarded. You might want to check some threads from last year and you'll see how many piled onto that. I have more friend with the FB than the GE and now they are kicking themselves. GE going EOL seemed to be a shock for many.

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[weakside]

tell me about it.  i have so much "wasted" space due to buying Monster Fighter, Superman's Lex, Orc Forges, and Tower Bridge sets too early.  All the sets were bought within 2-4 months of when they were expected to retire. 

 

 

 

agreed.  everything thinks the 10211 GE will perform like the FB.  no way.  FB was also considered the more popular set due to the design and being an old fashioned firehouse.  plus when panic buying for FB started, it wasn't as early for it so the hoarders didn't have an obvious "heads up" on the FB like the GE.  Design-wise, the GE will prob end up being the less valuable building (of them all) as the others are better looking and not as boring (in my opinion).    cinema palace should even appreciate better than FB if it's on the market for the same period of time.  if for some reason, it retires before 3 years, it will be awesome.

 

do i like GE, heck yeah.  i just see it like the red-headed stepchild of this them.  kinda like that winter market carnival set from last year when compared to the previous winter sets.  

 

once retired, GE demand / appreciation should stabilize faster than the prev and future retired sets of this line.  it's not like it has a short production run.

I guess everyone has their own preferences...for me I like the GE a lot more than the FB.  Love the exterior design, sure interior could be better but it's not often I take the floors apart.  I can't wait to buy the PR and attach it to the GE.  I have only ONE FB, but have a hard time deciding to open it or not   I need a trade someone!   

 

This is a great hobby,

100% agree. 

 

 

This set is not and was not more popular than the FB. FB was heavily hoarded. You might want to check some threads from last year and you'll see how many piled onto that. I have more friend with the FB than the GE and now they are kicking themselves. GE going EOL seemed to be a shock for many.

GE possibily retiring is not a shock to me or many...it would be a shock if PS or another modular retired first. 

 

Currently, this set is where I have the most money parked for investing.  I hope it does stay sold out and retires sooner than later.  I'm more realistic with potential growth than some folks here. 

 

Isn't there a saying...better to be a few months early than a day too late.  I hope members that like the GE to build/collect got their GE's at retail price before it's gone for good.

[river41]

Here we go again.  Add 1 more year to your Dow Jones or S&P average ROR and let me know how your rate of return was?  I know of not one investor that started at a cash position (not lost and then sold out) at the market bottoms of 2009 and rode the wave up to today.  That is a biased skewed rear view look which is completely inaccurate for measuring TROR.  A better measure would be those sets that retired in 2008 measured against the dow or s&p until today.  LEGO wins hands down and blows it out of the water when you account for risk or (on a risk adjusted basis).

your also being unfair. You want to start from a market top right before a crash.Why don't you take the long term historical averages of the stock market returns(10 years or more) and then take that cagr and compare it to lego.  Also as has been mentioned many times when using the cagr on this site make sure to deduct fees selling, shipping costs and any other expenses you may have as opposed to holding stocks that have no carrying costs and a minimal (!0 dollars in online brokerages) commission cost to buy and sell no ,matterr how many you buy or sell

[river41]

It is at "Available Now" everywhere except USA (where it is at July 25th ship date). I wonder if USA is indeed getting some European stock redirected. I guess we will see once backorders start flowing...

generally european stock has different boxes(no piece count on the box for example) and different upcs so i highly doubt they are getting european stock

[ChristopherJB]

At the end of the day, nobody can predict where the market goes. This can under or outperform any of the modulars. It's anyone's guess. To say this isn't going to do better than the green grocer is easy to predict but you know what? When the Chinese start pumping out more lego, you will never know about the demand after. The green grocer may become the forgotten child and it's possible the newer modulars gain more momentum.

As far as I'm concerned, this set is a winner and I didn't get as many of these as the FB.

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[No More Monkeys]

generally european stock has different boxes(no piece count on the box for example) and different upcs so i highly doubt they are getting european stock

Someone mentioned that he got FBs shipped from Lego SAH in the last days of FB with 'S' location code, while all earlier US orders had 'R' location. But this is all speculation of course

[Crustybeaver]

GE going EOL seemed to be a shock for many.

 

Let's get one thing straight GE isn't confirmed as going EOL, it's a perception derived from stock shortages. The Grand Emporium is the oldest standing modular in production, why would that be a shock if it retired? 

[clxmouth]

my 2 GEs have shipped. ordered july 7.

[No More Monkeys]

my 2 GEs have shipped. ordered july 7.

Please let us know seal codes once you get them. thanks!

[ChristopherJB]

Let's get one thing straight GE isn't confirmed as going EOL, it's a perception derived from stock shortages. The Grand Emporium is the oldest standing modular in production, why would that be a shock if it retired?

To many here, it seems like a shock. The FB was farting around for ages and nobody was panic buying. When I had the FB, I was like hurry up and just retire it. With the GE, it's more like, crap, wish I bought more.

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[Darth_Raichu]

To many here, it seems like a shock. The FB was farting around for ages and nobody was panic buying. When I had the FB, I was like hurry up and just retire it. With the GE, it's more like, crap, wish I bought more.

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Just curious, when did you start hoarding FB ? and GE ? Both have been available for a long time, a timeline would seriously backup your claims

[tonysbricks]

Assuming it's retiring, I am not sure why it's a surprise either. People have been talking about this set retiring since I joined BP.

[newbie77]

although, i am new here but its really surprising to hear "that TLG did not anticipate the demand".

 

isn't it obvious for that matter no one can anticipate and/or plan for the speculative market the commodity has become ?

 

we very well know that the pent-up demand for the modulars and/or other high priced lego sets are all speculative add-ons.

 

we all know that there are lot more investors and resellers than there were few years ago. so obviously there will be more pent up demand when there is perceived notion that the supply is going to be gone.

 

regardless, i feel that TLG has managed GE very well .. producing more and keeping the resellers closet full is the least they could do. ( for all practical purpose they are in the business in making $$. so they want to keep everyone happy. they are trying to maintain the symbiotic relationship }

 

in my opinion, there are more GE accumulated/hoarded for reselling perspective than FB. So, the return will be much less compared to FB and/or older modular sets.

[legodelorean]

All this negative talk is really bringing me down  lol.........Now with this uproar I can't decide it buying a 3rd GE would be a good idea.  I'm not expecting $500 but hopefully double the money?

[Veegs]

Assuming it's retiring, I am not sure why it's a surprise either. People have been talking about this set retiring since I joined BP.

 

Every set ever made has seemingly had an EOL thread since I joined BP!  I tend to ignore such threads and stick to my own plan.

 

Not to get too off topic, but a couple years ago in the holiday season when I first was on BP, a thread much like this talked about the GE going EOL because stock was fluctuating.  I bought 4 at the time and I've been watching them since then.  I wish I had bought even more Maersk trains and HP Castles instead, but I bought a little into the hype of the thread and allocated more money than I was planning at the time.  Should have stuck to my original plan...

[JRandall]

The market offers far better results than that. The CAGR for the Dow Jones for the past 5 years is 15.69%. Not too many lego sets offer that kind of return. There is also alot less risk and work when buying and selling the Dow compared to reselling lego sets. The simple fact is out of the hundreds of sets TLG makes every year only a handful will beat the market. If you don't choose those 4-5 sets correctly you are doing yourself a huge disservice. And if you are going to pay yourself or employees an actual wage to list, pack and do customer service then even those 4-5 good sets won't beat the market consistently. This is a great hobby, a mediocre business, and a poor investment. I understand nobody on these boards wants to hear that but there are way too many rose colored glasses around here.

I agree, that's why I don't do it as a business.  I have less than 20% of my yearly income invested in Lego and plan to hold for a few years and then get out for good.  For me this is just a side project to use as one of my few investment vehicles.  For all we know the market is due for a 2,000 point correction in the next two years as they stop pumping money(if that ever happens). Either way I have a 401k going also and know that I'm not smart enough to try to build a business around lego..  For those with quite a bit of money and a good understanding of excel and Ebay/Amazon, they definately can make money in this as a business if they are buying in bulk during large sales.. but most people aren't capable of that and if they are, they don't have the time to do it with toys let alone the space.

[Follows Closely]

Your LEGO

[Crustybeaver]

All this negative talk is really bringing me down  lol.........Now with this uproar I can't decide it buying a 3rd GE would be a good idea.  I'm not expecting $500 but hopefully double the money?

 

It depends on your time-frame. If you're prepared to keep it for two to three years I think doubling your investment (after fees) is more than possible

[newbie77]

All this negative talk is really bringing me down  lol.........Now with this uproar I can't decide it buying a 3rd GE would be a good idea.  I'm not expecting $500 but hopefully double the money?

me thinking we should see $500 by 2016 X-mas .. or am i being too optimistic?

[ChristopherJB]

Just curious, when did you start hoarding FB ? and GE ? Both have been available for a long time, a timeline would seriously backup your claims

I started hoarding the FB in may of last year and I had so much time from may 2013 all the way to December to hoard. With the GE, look what's going on. People are panic buying. Any supply is scooped up immediately. Just look at what's going on. Announcement, "available on SAH." Forums, "I put in my order." Five minutes later, "OOS." Check the history and see if that happened with the FB.

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