70810 - MetalBeard's Sea Cow

[Val-E]

There´s going to be a big market for psychiatrists specialising in Lego buying addiction in the next few years, believe me.

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

There´s going to be a big market for psychiatrists specialising in Lego buying addiction in the next few years, believe me.

My wife is a psychotherapist by trade.  Diagnosis, I'm an idiot.

[Val-E]

13 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

My wife is a psychotherapist by trade.  Diagnosis, I'm an idiot.

If she married you then what does that make her? At least your treatment will be on the house.

[inversion]

41 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

If she married you then what does that make her? At least your treatment will be on the house.

He will open his eyes when the wife publishes a scientific paper based on the experiment of close surveillance of a LEGO addict idiot, behavioral analysis etc. There is nothing people would not do for career.

[exciter1]

I didn't say she went to school for it.

[stephen_rockefeller]

[Val-E]

The red sold out and the orange sold out.

[legone3]

39 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Friends Rock Star Groupie Wagon

[GhostDad]

5 hours ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Yeah.  When you start getting unsolicited lego investing 'tips' from your cabbie, you'll know it's time to sell.  EVERYTHING.

[exciter1]

30 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

Yeah.  When you start getting unsolicited lego investing 'tips' from your cabbie, you'll know it's time to sell.  EVERYTHING.

They work for Uber and sophistication is at an all time high.

[diablo2112]

It's super that Sea Cow has done well.  It's far from the best performer among the 2015 retirements, however.  I'd bet few folks could name the best performing 2015 retirement on a percent basis (as of today, 1-17-2016)?  Any guesses?  Here's a hint:  MSRP was $49.99, and current Amazon price is $134.40, a gain of $269%.

The answer is Arctic Supply Plane, 60064.  

Here's a bit more data from the prominent 2015 retirements, as of today.  As you can see, Sea Cow is middle of the pack, on a percent basis.  On a pure dollar increase basis, it's done better, thanks to its high buy-in.  Among the relatively easy to acquire sets (as Arctic Supply Plane was a sudden, early disappearance and really wasn't on anyone's radar), the best set has been Fallingwater.   All FYI and YMMV.

Name	Number	MSRP	Amazon Buy Box 1.17.2016	Gain/Loss
Artic Supply Plane	60064	$49.99	$134.40	168.9%
Architecture Fallingwater	21005	$99.99	$224.95	125.0%
Technic Excavator	42006	$79.99	$158.90	98.6%
Star Wars Imperial Star Destroyer	75055	$129.99	$239.99	84.6%
Maersk Line Triple-E	10241	$149.99	$275	83.3%
Star Wars AT-AT	75054	$109.99	$198.88	80.8%
Metalbeards Sea Cow	70810	$249.99	$433.99	73.6%
Star Wars Cantina	75052	$69.99	$114.78	64.0%
Batman Tumbler	76023	$199.99	$295	47.5%
Star Wars Red Five X-Wing UCS	10240	$199.99	$289.00	44.5%
Tower of Orthanc	10237	$199.99	$278.99	39.5%
Star Wars Death Star	10188	$399.99	$548.87	37.2%
Service Truck	42008	$129.99	$174	33.9%

 

 

Edited January 18, 2016 by diablo2112

[MathBuilder]

diablo: Very interesting info thank you for sharing.

P.S. I thought the Technic Excavator 42006 had retired before. I guess I sold my 4 way too early. 

[diablo2112]

6 minutes ago, MathBuilder said:

P.S. I thought the Technic Excavator 42006 had retired before. I guess I sold my 4 way too early. 

It sold out on SAH in the last 2 weeks of 2014, but was available from several sources at MSRP in the first couple of weeks of Jan. 2015.  I bought 4 from my local TRU the first week of Jan. 2015 at MSRP.  So, yeah, you could argue either way for a 2014 or 2015 EOL date.  I choose to include it here, doesn't hurt anything.

[redghostx]

2 hours ago, diablo2112 said:

It's super that Sea Cow has done well.  It's far from the best performer among the 2015 retirements, however.  I'd bet few folks could name the best performing 2015 retirement on a percent basis (as of today, 1-17-2016)?  Any guesses?  Here's a hint:  MSRP was $49.99, and current Amazon price is $134.40, a gain of $269%.

The answer is Arctic Supply Plane, 60064.  

Here's a bit more data from the prominent 2015 retirements, as of today.  As you can see, Sea Cow is middle of the pack, on a percent basis.  On a pure dollar increase basis, it's done better, thanks to its high buy-in.  Among the relatively easy to acquire sets (as Arctic Supply Plane was a sudden, early disappearance and really wasn't on anyone's radar), the best set has been Fallingwater.   All FYI and YMMV.

Name	Number	MSRP	Amazon Buy Box 1.17.2016	Gain/Loss
Artic Supply Plane	60064	$49.99	$134.40	168.9%
Architecture Fallingwater	21005	$99.99	$224.95	125.0%
Technic Excavator	42006	$79.99	$158.90	98.6%
Star Wars Imperial Star Destroyer	75055	$129.99	$239.99	84.6%
Maersk Line Triple-E	10241	$149.99	$275	83.3%
Star Wars AT-AT	75054	$109.99	$198.88	80.8%
Metalbeards Sea Cow	70810	$249.99	$433.99	73.6%
Star Wars Cantina	75052	$69.99	$114.78	64.0%
Batman Tumbler	76023	$199.99	$295	47.5%
Star Wars Red Five X-Wing UCS	10240	$199.99	$289.00	44.5%
Tower of Orthanc	10237	$199.99	$278.99	39.5%
Star Wars Death Star	10188	$399.99	$548.87	37.2%
Service Truck	42008	$129.99	$174	33.9%

 

 

I really appreciate your info but I think that Fallingwater is the real winner of the $50 and up sets and I say that because it saw the most real growth in the last year.  The Arctic Supply Plane sold in the 110-130 range all year and saw negligible growth, basically it made you 0% in the last 9 months. 21005 was around for almost 6 years!!! and has doubled in less than a year.

[steveviscious89]

You know it's also about the build. See I like asymmetrical builds, and the only exception to that would be pirate ships and just boats in general. What's more, the Sea Cow, while it is essentially symmetrical, might be the most interesting ship build in Lego history, which in my eyes gives it one advantage over the Imperial Flagship (which looks like a pretty dull build despite being an impressive display piece).

[GhostDad]

16 hours ago, steveviscious89 said:

You know it's also about the build. See I like asymmetrical builds, and the only exception to that would be pirate ships and just boats in general. What's more, the Sea Cow, while it is essentially symmetrical, might be the most interesting ship build in Lego history, which in my eyes gives it one advantage over the Imperial Flagship (which looks like a pretty dull build despite being an impressive display piece).

But if you pay the current $450 for a Sea Cow, are you primarily buying the build or the display piece?  The build is, barring calamity, a one-time affair.  The display aspect is for as long as you like, or are willing to put up with dusting it...

I just bought an awesome 40" Sony HD television for $360.  I could, if I liked, set it to display a rotating 3D 1920 x 1080 image of Sea Cow 24-7 for about $30 a year in power cost.  Then when I got bored of that, I could, you know, watch The Lego Movie or something.  I confess to completely not understanding why someone would pay $450 for a psychotic's vision of what a steampunk pirate ship ought to look like.  Of all the 2015 retirements, this one strikes me as most likely to be an Arkham Asylum-style reseller bubble.  That would still leave it settling down at $400 or so.

The three really interesting exclusive retirements last year (yes, this is a bit subjective) are ToO, EEE, and SC.  ToO has been spectacularly bad, which I did not expect, while EEE has been ok and SC has been amazing.  I think, at least in these three cases, the key variable is reseller supply.  There are approximately a bazillion listings for ToO and far, far fewer for the other two.  Actually, EEE + SC = many fewer than ToO by itself.

Now you can be the only reseller offering Jack Stone's Christmas Vacation and still do terribly.  Supply is less important than set quality, but it does matter, and more so every day.  Set quality tends to correlate with reseller supply, since resellers are not generally stupid.  But if you can find that sweet spot where a set is slightly subpar (for a large exclusive) but reseller interest is dramatically below average, you can earn a stellar return.  I am not yet sure how to do this.  Apparently most resellers are equally unsure, or the strategy wouldn't work.  But it's definitely something to consider going forward.

Edited January 19, 2016 by GhostDad

[steveviscious89]

5 hours ago, GhostDad said:

But if you pay the current $450 for a Sea Cow, are you primarily buying the build or the display piece?  The build is, barring calamity, a one-time affair.  The display aspect is for as long as you like, or are willing to put up with dusting it...

I just bought an awesome 40" Sony HD television for $360.  I could, if I liked, set it to display a rotating 3D 1920 x 1080 image of Sea Cow 24-7 for about $30 a year in power cost.  Then when I got bored of that, I could, you know, watch The Lego Movie or something.  I confess to completely not understanding why someone would pay $450 for a psychotic's vision of what a steampunk pirate ship ought to look like.  Of all the 2015 retirements, this one strikes me as most likely to be an Arkham Asylum-style reseller bubble.  That would still leave it settling down at $400 or so.

The three really interesting exclusive retirements last year (yes, this is a bit subjective) are ToO, EEE, and SC.  ToO has been spectacularly bad, which I did not expect, while EEE has been ok and SC has been amazing.  I think, at least in these three cases, the key variable is reseller supply.  There are approximately a bazillion listings for ToO and far, far fewer for the other two.  Actually, EEE + SC = many fewer than ToO by itself.

Now you can be the only reseller offering Jack Stone's Christmas Vacation and still do terribly.  Supply is less important than set quality, but it does matter, and more so every day.  Set quality tends to correlate with reseller supply, since resellers are not generally stupid.  But if you can find that sweet spot where a set is slightly subpar (for a large exclusive) but reseller interest is dramatically below average, you can earn a stellar return.  I am not yet sure how to do this.  Apparently most resellers are equally unsure, or the strategy wouldn't work.  But it's definitely something to consider going forward.

I'm just giving you my perspective as a collector since I don't resell. Really it's for both the build and the display. Of course the one difference with me is that I didn't spend $450 on it, I bought it at retail. And I try to get most of the sets I like before they retire since I'm kind of able to do that. I just knew the Sea Cow was something I had to have the first time I saw it, and I don't even like steampunk.

[Val-E]

The thing, is folk that pay over RRP will convince themselves it was a good purchase too, whatever the price - see 10179. It´s more a question of how many people actually want one in their home.

[Alpinemaps]

6 hours ago, GhostDad said:

But if you pay the current $450 for a Sea Cow, are you primarily buying the build or the display piece?  The build is, barring calamity, a one-time affair.  The display aspect is for as long as you like, or are willing to put up with dusting it...

Why does someone pay $1000 for a SSD?  Why does someone pay $2000 for a Grand Carousel?  Why does someone pay $5000 for a 10179?

[steveviscious89]

20 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

The thing, is folk that pay over RRP will convince themselves it was a good purchase too, whatever the price - see 10179. It´s more a question of how many people actually want one in their home.

Oh man but that's 10179. Pretty much the holy grail of Lego sets and for that the sky is probably the limit. If I were to get one I would just get it used, and even then I can't really justify the price so more than likely I'll just be living without it. The reason I couldn't get that one was because I didn't have the money back then. Now I'm in a position where if a four or five hundred dollar set comes out, I can probably get it whether it just be on impulse or bday or Christmas present. But I suppose a lot people don't have that luxury so perhaps I shouldn't assume other collectors are like that.

[GhostDad]

8 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

Why does someone pay $1000 for a SSD?  Why does someone pay $2000 for a Grand Carousel?  Why does someone pay $5000 for a 10179?

The sets you mentioned would seem to have a lot more going for them than Sea Cow.  Star Wars OT sets have decades of movies, books, and games behind the brand.  The Carousel just looks awesome, like an actual carousel.  Sea Cow looks like someone decided to build a lego boat using literally all their spare lego pieces.  That was the Lego Movie idea, I know, but I'm not sure it works outside the movie.

Now this part is obviously very subjective, but the only reason I'd display a big lego set is if I could imagine myself in it somehow, like a kid flying around a model X-wing, playing that he's Luke taking on the Empire.  I can't see myself in the Sea Cow.  It's a cartoon ship from a cartoon world.

[stephen_rockefeller]

How many times are we going to hear your opinion on the sea cow? If you don't like it move along.....it's  pretty simple.

[JRandall]

The Sea Cow was a lazy average design.  The only reason for the pop in price is that so few were purchased and it started at a $250 price point which was dumb in and of itself when the movie is directed primarily towards kids.  They could have done with a $100 ship set and spent time elsewhere. There's nothing special about this thing, in fact they should have put the effort into making a few more better larger Pirate Ships and another Imperial Flagship with a different design when they re-released those few Pirate sets last year.  Some of the decisions made by the LEGO group are irrational.

[justapilgrim]

The Sea Cow was a lazy average design.  The only reason for the pop in price is that so few were purchased and it started at a $250 price point which was dumb in and of itself when the movie is directed primarily towards kids.  They could have done with a $100 ship set and spent time elsewhere. There's nothing special about this thing, in fact they should have put the effort into making a few more better larger Pirate Ships and another Imperial Flagship with a different design when they re-released those few Pirate sets last year.  Some of the decisions made by the LEGO group are irrational.

Spoken like someone who hasn't seen or built it. There are plenty of pirate ships. There is only one sea cow

[Val-E]

17 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

How many times are we going to hear your opinion on the sea cow? If you don't like it move along.....it's  pretty simple.

It´s been pages of the same  opinions from fanboys and haters for a while now so I suggest leaving this set alone to do the talking with its post EOL performance and checking back this time next year for an appraisal.