70810 - MetalBeard's Sea Cow

[stephen_rockefeller]

7 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

Because like many others, you probably did not expect it to be a winner anyway. I used to ask myself: why didn't I put every penny of saving in Tesla stock when it was only $20 a share?  

Because emazers didn't tell you to

[steveviscious89]

There's a lesson to be learned here. If it has a hull and sails and at least 900 pieces, you should buy it. 

[MathBuilder]

9 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

Because like many others, you probably did not expect it to be a winner anyway. I used to ask myself: why didn't I put every penny of saving in Tesla stock when it was only $20 a share?  

I actually did expect Sea Cow to be a winner back then when it came out and bought 2 copies early on, was planing to get more eventually but then completely forgot. Oh well, 2 is better than 0.  

 

 

 

[Loghamel]

19 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

Because like many others, you probably did not expect it to be a winner anyway. I used to ask myself: why didn't I put every penny of saving in Tesla stock when it was only $20 a share?  

I didn't put every penny in it, but I did get a nice chunk just under $17.

[Robb]

Prime price up to $500!

nobody believed in this one.

[stephen_rockefeller]

9 minutes ago, Robb said:

Prime price up to $500!

nobody believed in this one.

False sir........read through this thread, there were beleibers!

[Robb]

7 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

False sir........read through this thread, there were beleibers!

I know, I was! not my normal 4x but that has more to do with price and funds than my thoughts on the set.

[tacsniper]

24 minutes ago, Robb said:

Prime price up to $500!

nobody believed in this one.

 

 

 

[Ed Mack]

 

As stated many times on these forums, the Sea Cow was either a hit or sh*t. It seems to be a hit and its rapid growth shows the market is still strong. While other investments are tanking, this is a great example of why LEGO investing is still worthwhile if you pick the right sets.

- Posted 7 hours ago: "I would caution getting too optimistic on this set right now. There are a lot if investors and resellers buying these sets up now because they missed it earlier."

- Posted 2 hours ago: "It seems to be a hit and its rapid growth shows the market is still strong."

-> Now I'm getting confused about your actual opinion...

My opinion on this set, as it always has been, was that it was a unique set that would do well after retiring. It was overlooked, or maybe purposely ignored, by many and had a short production run. It seems to be appreciating well, which would indicate a good future for the set. My only issue is that some of this buzz is created by the resellers themselves, so interest in the set might not be as strong as people think. Something similar to the Town Hall. Regardless, both are top notch sets that will appreciate nicely, but it could definitely reach a point here soon where it will plateau for awhile.

[Ciglione]

8 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

My opinion on this set, as it always has been, was that it was a unique set that would do well after retiring. It was overlooked, or maybe purposely ignored, by many and had a short production run. It seems to be appreciating well, which would indicate a good future for the set. My only issue is that some of this buzz is created by the resellers themselves, so interest in the set might not be as strong as people think. Something similar to the Town Hall. Regardless, both are top notch sets that will appreciate nicely, but it could definitely reach a point here soon where it will plateau for awhile.

I agree. 

I never bought the cow cause I did not like it. Did I think it would not do good? No. But I just could not convince myself buying it regardless.

TH seems to have plateaud for now. I even noticed a light decrease in value. Maybe the resellers had enough and it will adjust to a more realistic value. Then to slowly grow in a healthy manner. 

[Ed Mack]

In defense of many non Beliebers, there are so many options currently to invest in. Do you take a chance on a non traditional set like the Sea Cow or a known commodity like the Red 5 or Modular.? LEGO is releasing sets at a record pace and most people just cannot buy them all. This is good for the market because people cannot stockpile them all, but there are still plenty of gems out there for those who choose wisely.

[jaisonline]

We'll see what happens when resellers finish getting their sea cow "on".

great design pirate mashup ship but nothing else really. i do think many folks will "try" to bricklink the ship w/ sub elements because these owners prob already bought the DoubleDecker Couch and Metalbeard's battle set.

current "used" bricklink price (no instructions, no instructions, no minifigs) =  $373.03. instructions could be a problem as well as some of the elements (e.g. globe that's in the TH). 

in summary, supply and being hard to bricklink will def help the set's value but i seriously doubt demand will remain high (think The Zombies. once that set hit $200, buyers started to look at other sets due to the price).

 

[Quacs]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

We'll see what happens when resellers finish getting their sea cow "on".

great design pirate mashup ship but nothing else really. i do think many folks will "try" to bricklink the ship w/ sub elements because these owners prob already bought the DoubleDecker Couch and Metalbeard's battle set.

current "used" bricklink price (no instructions, no instructions, no minifigs) =  $373.03. instructions could be a problem as well as some of the elements (e.g. globe that's in the TH). 

in summary, supply and being hard to bricklink will def help the set's value but i seriously doubt demand will remain high (think The Zombies. once that set hit $200, buyers started to look at other sets due to the price).

 

There doesn't need to be high demand for prices to rise if supply is very low.  Besides, what's the expectation?  If it hits Zombie level performance, it would plateau around $550-600.  Most would consider that a more than acceptable yield.  

Also calling it a "pirate mashup" is missing the true essence of The Sea Cow - it's a whimsical story book ship that oozes creativity, detail and fun.  The Sea Cow has excellent minifigures that include the exclusive QueasyKitty and micro scale Metalbeard.  And let's face it - Lego is light on these types of exclusives.  For one Sea Cow, there are twenty Star Wars UCS models, ten modulars and five vehicles to choose from.   Perhaps that's another reason people are drawn to it - there's an over saturation of "true to life" models, and this one breaks the mold.  It's a counterculture set that appeals to the Wyldstyles instead of just the Emmets. 

[Val-E]

It will be interesting to see how the theme´s CAGR is affected by continued sea cow appreciation in the US. I guess that it won´t change much until stuff like Benny´s become scarce.

[Quacs]

6 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

It will be interesting to see how the theme´s CAGR is affected by continued sea cow appreciation in the US. I guess that it won´t change much until stuff like Benny´s become scarce.

Agreed.  It's too early to measure CAGR for this theme.  It needs a chance to retire to Boca for a year before assessing it.

[jaisonline]

27 minutes ago, Quacs said:

There doesn't need to be high demand for prices to rise if supply is very low.  Besides, what's the expectation?  If it hits Zombie level performance, it would plateau around $550-600.  Most would consider that a more than acceptable yield.  

Also calling it a "pirate mashup" is missing the true essence of The Sea Cow - it's a whimsical story book ship that oozes creativity, detail and fun.  The Sea Cow has excellent minifigures that include the exclusive QueasyKitty and micro scale Metalbeard.  And let's face it - Lego is light on these types of exclusives.  For one Sea Cow, there are twenty Star Wars UCS models, ten modulars and five vehicles to choose from.   Perhaps that's another reason people are drawn to it - there's an over saturation of "true to life" models, and this one breaks the mold.  It's a counterculture set that appeals to the Wyldstyles instead of just the Emmets. 

The zombies set was used only as a comparison for what happens when a set begins to plateau as Ed mentioned could happen sooner than later (it's an unknown)

there is nothing wrong with calling it a mashup. That is what makes the sea cow unique and very special. 

People are prob drawn to it because it's from a great movie , is very well designed and minifigure selection.

[steveviscious89]

33 minutes ago, Quacs said:

There doesn't need to be high demand for prices to rise if supply is very low.  Besides, what's the expectation?  If it hits Zombie level performance, it would plateau around $550-600.  Most would consider that a more than acceptable yield.  

Also calling it a "pirate mashup" is missing the true essence of The Sea Cow - it's a whimsical story book ship that oozes creativity, detail and fun.  The Sea Cow has excellent minifigures that include the exclusive QueasyKitty and micro scale Metalbeard.  And let's face it - Lego is light on these types of exclusives.  For one Sea Cow, there are twenty Star Wars UCS models, ten modulars and five vehicles to choose from.   Perhaps that's another reason people are drawn to it - there's an over saturation of "true to life" models, and this one breaks the mold.  It's a counterculture set that appeals to the Wyldstyles instead of just the Emmets. 

This is exactly right. As a collector, I like to have a variety of things on display. It's nice to have the star wars ships and city stuff and whatnot, but having something like the Sea Cow brings a little flair to it. Actually when people see my collection their eyes are usually drawn to it first because it stands out so much. HH is the same way.

[steveviscious89]

By the way....in the same manner, I have avoided the sand crawler because it doesn't seem like an attractive display piece. Sure it would be great for play, but I don't really play with them...haha. So there's some food for thought. I don't know if all collectors think like I do though.

[lego rules]

39 minutes ago, steveviscious89 said:

By the way....in the same manner, I have avoided the sand crawler because it doesn't seem like an attractive display piece. Sure it would be great for play, but I don't really play with them...haha. So there's some food for thought. I don't know if all collectors think like I do though.

that's a mistake...............actually..........yes, avoid it!

[lego rules]

3 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

....., but there are still plenty of gems out there for those who choose wisely.

But choose wisely, for while the true Lego will bring you life, the false Lego will take it from you.

[Alpinemaps]

Like or don't like it, it seemed to perform well in the secondary market whenever it was TOOS at S@H. I tried many times to get one off of eBay for less than RRP, and never could find one.  That, combined with investor disinterest, told me to take a chance on it.

[exciter1]

By the way....in the same manner, I have avoided the sand crawler because it doesn't seem like an attractive display piece. Sure it would be great for play, but I don't really play with them...haha. So there's some food for thought. I don't know if all collectors think like I do though.

Not an attractive display piece? It's my favorite vehicle from the OT.

[steveviscious89]

9 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Not an attractive display piece? It's my favorite vehicle from the OT.

Oh it is an impressive model for sure, but....well there were other things I'd rather have. Just my taste I guess.

[BrickLegacy]

If you haven't seen the Sea Cow in person, you really can't appreciate it. It's one of the most unique sets ever designed and its HUGE .

[Cravacor]

Why are BPers generally so bearish on TLM sets? Seems to me the movie was quite popular with non-pros and non-Lego purists. Those people, either just coming in from their Dark Ages, or families with children, seem like a good market with strong demand, especially when TLM 2 drops.