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70810 - MetalBeard's Sea Cow


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On 1/1/2016 at 4:25 PM, valenciaeric said:

Ask 100 random adults in the street who are not on drugs which one in the photo is the most kick ass ship and see what they say.

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SC  is not bad but it has serious issues with its demographic that will make it hard to find a good home. I think it´s the 2014 Unimog, basically.

Can't disagree more.  Both of the other ships have almost no freeboard, carnival colored or straight black sails, no thanks.  The aft section construction on BP is weak at best, using arches and is the worst aft section on a lego ship I have ever seen, and they are both just tiny compared to SC which has nice classic tall ship colors.  Granted its a little fantasy oriented but seriously if I were choosing based on current prices after looking at that photo of the three its no contest, the other two just don't measure up.  The QAR is a little better still SC is a far larger, better proportioned and better equipped ship for current value. Uncertain if it will increase in value enough for good investment, but for todays prices SC all the way.

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I am very bullish on this set. What made a firm believer in this set was the build. The amount of detail that goes into this set is great. I do agree that the minifigs don't add or subtract to the awesomeness of this set. I have 3 of these and can't wait to see this set at least double one year after retirement . 

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27 minutes ago, allen9917 said:

Jumped to $349 on Amazon the 1st day it went out of stock. Just an observation.

I see people posting these things a lot these days but I don't see how it is relevant. Any retired set will jump in price immediately on secondary markets because there is a minimum price point for sellers where it is worth it for them to list it. The only thing that matters is the price of sold listings.

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9 minutes ago, bricketycricket said:

I see people posting these things a lot these days but I don't see how it is relevant. Any retired set will jump in price immediately on secondary markets because there is a minimum price point for sellers where it is worth it for them to list it. The only thing that matters is the price of sold listings.

I see 4 today sold on eBay for $300 with free shipping. 

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19 minutes ago, brad4815 said:

I see 4 today sold on eBay for $300 with free shipping. 

I wouldn't be surprised if those sales went to investors.  It's not that uncommon for speculative investors to purchase sets quickly once they disappear at retail.  That tends to drive the price up quickly.  Consumer demand will determine if that price is sustainable over time.

This strategy is being debated here:  

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/15553-buying-mint-sealed-retired-sets-as-investments-on-2ndary-market/?page=1

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Well I'm sad I missed out on this one. I'm a believer in this bad boy but being small time I can't collect them all. I could make the same post in the tumbler thread but at least I own one of those.

Good luck to those who have faith in the SC.

I can trade you one for your town hall :)

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Well I'm sad I missed out on this one. I'm a believer in this bad boy but being small time I can't collect them all. I could make the same post in the tumbler thread but at least I own one of those. Good luck to those who have faith in the SC.

I can trade you one for your town hall

I love your persistence red! Not for a sea cow but if you have a 10212 IS...

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Well I'm sad I missed out on this one. I'm a believer in this bad boy but being small time I can't collect them all. I could make the same post in the tumbler thread but at least I own one of those. Good luck to those who have faith in the SC.

I can trade you one for your town hall

I love your persistence red! Not for a sea cow but if you have a 10212 IS...

Oddly enough, I just built it, except for the stand. The feeling of new bricks was pretty nice.

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1 hour ago, BrickLegacy said:

I wouldn't be surprised if those sales went to investors.  It's not that uncommon for speculative investors to purchase sets quickly once they disappear at retail.  That tends to drive the price up quickly.  Consumer demand will determine if that price is sustainable over time.

This strategy is being debated here:  

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/15553-buying-mint-sealed-retired-sets-as-investments-on-2ndary-market/?page=1

I know that there are plenty of investors who think themselves savvy for purchasing at 10-20% above MSRP after a set has proven that it is sold out and will be imminently retired, but I question the viability of the strategy moving forward.

I believe we are living in a new age of investing where the buy-in price means everything. Margins are smaller, and every $10 less you paid for a set is $10 earned on the resale. I would much rather have my MSC, that I paid $193 for six months ago hoping that it would likely retire, than a $275 MSC today now that I am 100% certain it is retiring. That $82 difference might be quickly made up when you've got SSD or TH-type growth on your hands, but those are rare exceptions and becoming rarer. 

Make your picks, wait for the absolute best deals you're ever going to find, then pounce on them and wait it out. 

For a real investor:

Lower buy in > retirement certainty

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7 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

I believe we are living in a new age of investing where the buy-in price means everything. Margins are smaller, and every $10 less you paid for a set is $10 earned on the resale.

This is so true, as the market is becoming more and more competitive the lower the buy-in the better. This makes the snipping (mass purchase on rumor retirement) approach less appealing.

However, don't forget to factor in the opportunity cost. Just because a TFA set is on sale for 20% today, do you really want to tie up your capital for 12-18 months before it retires.

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29 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

I know that there are plenty of investors who think themselves savvy for purchasing at 10-20% above MSRP after a set has proven that it is sold out and will be imminently retired, but I question the viability of the strategy moving forward.

I believe we are living in a new age of investing where the buy-in price means everything. Margins are smaller, and every $10 less you paid for a set is $10 earned on the resale. I would much rather have my MSC, that I paid $193 for six months ago hoping that it would likely retire, than a $275 MSC today now that I am 100% certain it is retiring. That $82 difference might be quickly made up when you've got SSD or TH-type growth on your hands, but those are rare exceptions and becoming rarer. 

Make your picks, wait for the absolute best deals you're ever going to find, then pounce on them and wait it out. 

For a real investor:

Lower buy in > retirement certainty

I agree that it is more and more of a competition of low buy in, especially for non-exclusives, and I've said the same thing in other thread. However just want to point out the example is a bit off-base because 20% off exclusives are hell of a deal and very RARE, and hence the risk you take if the set lingers is limited. Also, seacow did exit as expected but what if it lingers for another year or two? I bet people bought the death star 4 years ago have a different story to tell.

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