70810 - MetalBeard's Sea Cow

[justapilgrim]

I completely agree with everything you wrote here. The more I look at the ship, I like it. But, from an investor's and collector's standpoint, it's questionable whether the ship and Lego Movie sets, in general, will be desirable in the long term despite a second movie.

Agree here. For all we know they produced/sold a ridiculous amount of TLM sets. Look how long some of them lingered with deep discounts. Time will tell. I'm more bullish on this set than Bennys. Lots of people here have 10-20 benny's and zero sea cows

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[snot]

I'm still new at investing in Lego's, and although I really like the Sea Cow, I'm not sure about investing in it.  I'm having trouble convincing myself that people would want to collect every set from the Lego Movie.  It's not LOTR or Star Wars.  With the modulars it easy to understand a collector would pay 2-3x or more for a building like the GG or Town Hall because they just have to complete their collection.   But with the Lego Movie, is there that much demand to have a Benny's Spaceship and a Sea Cow?  And would they pay a premium for it?  I'm guessing that no, a Lego Movie fan could live without it.  So maybe it fits better in a pirate ship collection, but even then it is so unusual for that type of collection too.  Maybe this is one of those sets that everyone is going to hesitate on and come EOL find it in high demand from both Lego Movie and pirate ship collectors.  Buy 10 just to be safe?

[TheOrcKing]

True a lot is up in the air whether The LEGO Movie related sets and items would be remembered or worthwhile later on considering it is a homebrew theme and we have seen how low on the totem pole similar original lines have gone (although some have yielded a select winner or two from time to time). The Sea Cow is a wildcard not really fitting under anything previously released with the build being half Pirate while the other half is steampunk; something LEGO has not yet tried. Such uniqueness could be what shall set it apart or bring the whole thing down. Who truly knows what the current generation will remember let alone the next. Heck, how many people know Godzilla's original name of Gojira or the fact that famous kaiju was inspired by The Beast From 20,000 Fathoms or even why do people remember 'it' in the first place after all this time?

Moving along, all of the sets for this theme are basically City vehicles featuring an alternate mode with the exception of a few including the topic in question's design. While each captures the beauty that LEGO offers in freeform creativity, people typically purchase for just what it is. Maybe that soaring destroyer of lavatories will pique someone's interest or perhaps the western tavern turned biplane shall catch somebody's attention or perhaps not. Each set was based on something with little time on screen in a few shots after all so who knows.

For me the characters who stuck out were Lucy "Wyldstyle" simply for being her awesome self, Vitruvius since it's difficult to not notice Morgan Freeman ever, and 1980s something astronaut Benny because same as his spaceship he encompasses everything that made Classic Space a classic. He also reminds me of the enthusiastic passion one had when building as a youngling that seems to get forgotten over time. On that note I feel like Benny's Spaceship is a good set; possibly the best from the line. It is not a perfect recreation of Classic Space but makes for a nice nod towards it while bringing forward something new. The Sea Cow does something similar nodding at everything Pirates yet being different at the same. Whether that will be enough is anyone's guess.

[GhostDad]

Very well put.  I've been burned on so many Lego investments -- basically every time I thought "outside of the box" -- that I really try not to take chances these days, and $250 a pop is a big chance.  On the other hand, give me a Lego gift certificate for $250 with the condition that I have to keep and build whatever set I buy, and I'll go straight for the Sea Cow.  Sometimes you can go around in circles on these decisions.  Something like GE was easy -- I liked the set and modulars have a track record.  So do pirate ships, but... steam punk pirate ships?

 

I'd feel better about it if the ship were longer and the back were a bit lower, even if that made it less true to the movie.  But it still is pretty cool, with some amazing detail (more than the Imperial Flagship, frankly).  My feeling is that our target market is not Lego Movie fans, but rather collectors who want to display the ship, either by itself of with the Black Pearl, Queen Anne's Revenge, and so on.  And I think they'll probably go up to $400 or so within a year if EOL, which isn't a TH level gain, but is still decent, at least if you're buying the set during 2 x VIP.

 

Oh, and bonus points to Lego for including all six cannons.  It's nice to be able to fully arm the ship without resorting to bricklink for extra cannons.  Combined with the superior maneuverability offered by steam versus sail power, the Sea Cow should be able to outfight a whole armada of standard Lego pirate ships...

Edited March 23, 2015 by GhostDad

[Ed Mack]

With some investors on the fence about this set, those who do take a chance and buy a few might see strong gains once retired because of the lack of stockpiling...or not.????

[biniou]

^ this man saw something of interest in the BP data

[Neosphinx]

I tried to understand this set but cannot... Even if I was a fan of steampunk, this set would not satisfy me. It doesnt look serious (cow in the front, omg), sails are strange, its far from steampunk classic like this:

Also the licence and figs are worthless, since it is from a children movie without a value for AFOLs in future.

To sum up, I would use EUR 250 better than for this set. Far better is to buy 2 more modulars for example...

I would have never stated my opinion so boldly but I completely agree. never understood that set.

[beartrapper]

At LEGOLAND California they have one built in the store window, with a little bit of an MOC of the ocean underneath that really makes it look good. I'm working on recreating that look for the one I will be building.

 

I don't have a sea cow yet, but I do have that same bench. It was a steal 2 years ago on BF at Home Depot for $19.

[@rtisan]

I think the issue of people being on the fence is because it`s such a "weird/foreign" concept. You really have to have a different perspective to see the potential of a set like this as opposed to UCS sets or Modulars, or even the larger Creator sets. This set is weird. I prefer to say unique, and it`s clear that many others think the same. That`s the issue. I`d say expand your thinking and buy at least a couple, if you`re spending hundreds on Modulars already (not that those aren`t great investments, obviously) but adding some of these even if not just 1 isn`t going to hurt. I think many will be surprised for better or for worse what ends up happening when it is finally gone. 

 

When to buy, well it never hurts to do so early, but I believe it`s got some time left on the clock. If you really want to invest though, of course do it asap to make sure it doesn`t leave unexpectedly. 

[biking_tiger]

It's an eye-catcher and a conversation starter (debate/argument starter?). Whether you "like" it or not, those two facts will propel it. Will LEGO every make another Sea Cow? Doubtful.

 

I'm not wagering my children's future on this one, but I do have a few and will acquire a few more before the end.

[Grynn]

^ this man saw something of interest in the BP data

 

Very little disparity between new/used prices?

 

People who are buying this set are building this set, it would seem.

 

 

I think many of us can agree on moderately high risk / high reward for the line as a whole.

 

Personally, I bought Benny right away last year, with a TRU coupon / discount. Bit of a high price now, but who could have predicted it would be so widely available at 50% off? Besides, the idea was that my son could have it as a gift at some point.

 

Sea Cow was always interesting, but not a priority of any sort until late last year. Once these sets started drying up a bit, I realized I always lingered just a bit in stores looking at details on many of these sets (even on the "toilet/trash" stuff) just like I did my favorite themes, and figured if sales really were as poor as they seemed on the line as a whole, and TLM became any kind of an enduring franchise, I would seriously regret not having any. So I bought up one of each, as well as any real hot deals. Sea Cow, again, is basically just a magnified version of this description to me. I'm not a ship or steampunk nut, but I think it is pretty awesome just for what it is, and wouldn't want to fork over $500+ for it years down the road.

 

The sooner it goes EOL the higher the potential reward for stocking up on them. The longer it lingers, the more potential downside if it never takes off "long term".

 

I am also curious what some of you mean when you say "long term".  In this period of hyper-flipping, some people think a year is a long hold. Is anyone seriously considering Sea Cow as a 5+ year investment? Do you believe it will follow a pattern similar to the norm, and plateau approximately 2 years after sold out / eol? I personally think it won't have the endurance of the iconic SW sets or something like the Batmobile/Tumbler/Helicarrier, but then if many less Sea Cattle are produced and TLM endures at all, that line of thinking is more or less nullified. It could go completely bonkers 3 years from now, similar to what PotC ships appear to be doing, or faster and stronger.

 

This one really remains a mystery. Maybe Lego put it out there as a sort of experiment, not knowing what to expect from it, either. TLM sets have probably been a mild disappointment to both them and us so far, overall, but is that because they just weren't popular, or were significantly overproduced?

[biking_tiger]

I liked your post simply because of this phrase:

"In this period of hyper-flipping"

 

Because that's where/when we are, isn't it? That's how many (some, not all) "investors" feel. I'd love to have a time machine and travel five years down the road and see what happens to LEGO investing after years of "hyper-flipping." Will it make sets more valuable for those who actually do buy and hold?

 

And the Sea Cow... even if it isn't in the next film, what will happen to its value when the next movie resurrects interest in the core characters? High risk items often do carry the greatest rewards... or bust.

[asharerin]

This set looks to be an interesting build. Part out value is quite decent. I don't think it is going to have the large audience of modulars, UCS or landmark sets but from what I am reading it doesn't sound like it is being stockpiled either. I don't believe the movies will play a big role in helping or hurting this set so I have to judge it on its own merits. Second round pick for me. It looks like a good option, just not the best IMO.

[fantomas007]

 Will LEGO every make another Sea Cow? Doubtful.

 

Yes, but using this logic you can buy all Chima, Lone Ranger or Toy story sets, because Lego will never produce such sets in future.

I can imagine that some people in future will like this set. Question is different - how much money will they be ready to pay for it? Is real to expect EUR 500 for this set? Because it is a EUR 250 monster, which is horrible start price. It is a price of big UCS SW or a famous landmark set. We must think in percentage. I remember when I bought Imperial flagship, I had some doubts to pay EUR 150 for it (double price of standard pirate ship). Now it is on EUR 500. But it is a biggest ship ever and every pirates collector MUST have it. Can Sea Cow reach this price? It is not classic ship, so pirates collectors dont need it. It is unstandard ship without any connection to real life (or fantasy life from Verne novels), because the construction is unlogic, unproportional, etc. I dont want to see same effect, as I had with Harry Potter Diagon Alley, which was praised as a biggest HP set with rarity figs, I bought it for EUR 150 and after 2 years hardly sold for EUR 250 - after falling of HP mania. Just 66 % profit - not bad, but if you spend same money for Imperial flagship or some UCSs, I would have much bigger profit. Even if I take few Sea Cow, it is EUR 1000 for 4 pieces! Its horrible amount of money, for which I can have 10 Campers, which can easy reach EUR 200 without any problem.

Thatswhy I will buy this set only with a special discount - for example during black friday or New years sale - if it wont go to the discounts, sorry I will miss this set. EUR 250 is too much for this unreal, fairy-tale looking set from the theme, which will not be remembered after few years.

[biking_tiger]

I wasn't exactly trying to imply anything like a HH slam dunk with my "doubtful" comment. And let's be honest: The Lone Ranger was a stinker of a movie; TLM wasn't. Toy Story and Chima have little adult appeal. The Sea Cow is a strange and somewhat wonderful (or just strange) boat. I know plenty of weird adults with expendable income who will spend in strange and wonderful ways. (Anyone who has been to a Comic-Con knows of what I speak.)

 

I can see a big difference between US and European markets on the Sea Cow. Americans like big, loud things (before the hate mail--not necessarily all Americans, but it's a stereotype for a reason), and the Sea Cow is a big, brash, loud, "hey look at me" thing.

 

"second round pick" sounds about right.

[GhostDad]

Funny thing about the Lego movie: It is an "adult" movie (for kids too, obviously), only most adults don't seem to realize it.  That five minutes in the beginning right after Emmett wakes up is pure anti-establishment, anti-military/industrial complex gold.  I would have expected anyone who came of age in the 60s and 70s to get that, but nope.  Adults, at least those I've talked to about it, went into the movie with their kids thinking it was just for the little people, and completely missed the point.  I'm honestly surprised Warner Brothers got behind a movie that makes fun of giant media and entertainment companies.  Maybe the Warner Brothers execs missed the point too.

 

Anyway, I do think we have some time on this one, since new TLM sets came out this year.  When Sea Cow is the last set left in the theme, or Lego introduces another TLM exclusive, I expect that will start the clock ticking.  I still might buy a few during 2x VIP, though, just for lack of appealing alternatives (I've already got my fill of the obvious retirement candidates, excepting 10240 and 10241, which I'm passing on).

[fantomas007]

I can see a big difference between US and European markets on the Sea Cow. Americans like big, loud things (before the hate mail--not necessarily all Americans, but it's a stereotype for a reason), and the Sea Cow is a big, brash, loud, "hey look at me" thing.

 

 

Yes, you are right, we must think of these differences. Another sample is Marvel / DC sets, which are not so popular in Europe as they are in USA. Or Simpsons - although they are popular here in Europe, in USA are much more popular. Thatswhy I dont buy so much such sets for investment. On the other side, I can imagine that Tower Bridge is more popular in Europe than in USA.

Edited March 23, 2015 by mesje

[Neosphinx]

It reminded me a bit of this when I first saw it, a little of everything.

 

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=6493-1

 

I think as said before. Like it or hate it, there will be people wanting to buy it and because of the smaller number of investors investing in this, there will be some money to be made.

 

As for DC comics and Marvel being less popular in Europe, Maybe. Batman remains an icon and Iron Man simply is..... cool... but Spidey or Avenger doesn't have the same fan-base. But then again, isn't it the same in the US?

 

The simpsons on the other hand have always been popular with me and the people I went to school with, work with. Perhaps they are not that popular as in the US, but they have a very large fanbase too.

[speedsausage]

At LEGOLAND California they have one built in the store window, with a little bit of an MOC of the ocean underneath that really makes it look good. I'm working on recreating that look for the one I will be building.

Here are some pics

ImageUploadedByBrickpicker Forum1426996812.092666.jpgImageUploadedByBrickpicker Forum1426996828.302612.jpgImageUploadedByBrickpicker Forum1426996841.989609.jpgImageUploadedByBrickpicker Forum1426996857.511930.jpg

That's actually pretty slick looking. I would even it out to make it look a little more like waves but I really like how they make the colours fade into white caps.

[rcdb1984]

it is one of the largest, (if not that) of the pirate ships. It has to have some appeal

[Frogger21]

I think this has a similar feel to ToO in a sense that it has unlimited potential but it could also die out at $350 or $400. If I had enough of other sets I would pick some up but its definetly not my first choice just because of the unknown factor. People who buy this set could build their own real Sea Cow or they might have 1 big LEGO Sea Cow that they can take down to the pond.

[Sozial]

I think for investment purposes that set is a fail. The movie is for kids, so only their parents would be potential buyers. Of course you can argue that some Chima and Ninjago Sets have done well and have the same targeting Group, but this ship is more expensive, that means less potential buyers.

Imho the chance/risk with a selling target at 350-400

[stephen_rockefeller]

I only partially agree that the movie was for kids. Have you seen it? There is an AFOL element there for sure.

[trekgate502]

I love the movie as much as my kiddo and I am 47.  It is great.  I play it in the office even if by myself...

[GhostDad]

I'm surprised Lord Business allows that.  Doesn't he realize the movie makes him look bad?