Selling of 10179, am I crazy?

[Huskers1236]

I have been contemplating selling my used copy of 10179 because I would like to use the money for soon to be EOL'ing sets. One has to think that the cap for this set HAS to be coming at some time. At its current prices ~$1400, I do stand to make some money. Is this crazy talk? I love the set, but really don't have anywhere to display it where it doesn't stand out like a sore thumb, and could use the money to buy several sets that would, in turn, appreciate.

[Ed Mack]

No you are not crazy. That is what investing is all about. Sell now and you are assured of a certain profit. Wait and the price can level off and drop. BUT...wait and a new STAR WARS movie comes out in 2015 and the Millennium Falcon is still in that movie and that set can go into the stratosphere.

From what I've read, the next STAR WARS movie is a total crap shoot as to when and where it takes place and what characters and ships will be in it. See Article. It is quite possible the Millennium Falcon will be in the next episode, so all bets are off as to where the ceiling is for this set.

[azalon]

Think of the opportunity that you might be able to take advantage of. Sell your 10179 for $1400 as you mentioned. You get both your profit and initial investment. Now you can afford to go out and buy, say, 12 Maersk Trains or 13 MMVs or 9 GEs.

Question being, would it be better to ride the 10179 for another 2-3 years or could you create a higher value by reinvesting. If the Maersk trains hit $200, I would think you would be better off at $2400 from those than the chance a used MF hits $2400 at the same future point.

Personally, given the same choice, I would sell and buy other key sets I thought were close to retirement. The key is to choose wisely. If I thought the GE is going to retire in 3 months, but it turns out to be 10 and I'm sitting on 10 of them, it could still be a much wiser choice than to just buy quantity of other sets because they're retiring soon or TRU has a 10% sale. The MMV could retire sooner but in 1-2 years, the GE might have a better ROI.

Sometimes the key to increasing your investment is buying AND selling, not just buy and hold. Although I'm terrible at it--I just buy and hold. And run out of room.

[Huskers1236]

Think of the opportunity that you might be able to take advantage of. Sell your 10179 for $1400 as you mentioned. You get both your profit and initial investment. Now you can afford to go out and buy, say, 12 Maersk Trains or 13 MMVs or 9 GEs.

Question being, would it be better to ride the 10179 for another 2-3 years or could you create a higher value by reinvesting. If the Maersk trains hit $200, I would think you would be better off at $2400 from those than the chance a used MF hits $2400 at the same future point.

Personally, given the same choice, I would sell and buy other key sets I thought were close to retirement. The key is to choose wisely. If I thought the GE is going to retire in 3 months, but it turns out to be 10 and I'm sitting on 10 of them, it could still be a much wiser choice than to just buy quantity of other sets because they're retiring soon or TRU has a 10% sale. The MMV could retire sooner but in 1-2 years, the GE might have a better ROI.

Sometimes the key to increasing your investment is buying AND selling, not just buy and hold. Although I'm terrible at it--I just buy and hold. And run out of room.

Unfortunately, I didn't buy mine when it was $400, but I will still make several hundred, even after fees if I go ebay. You are right though, chances are better and buying several sets ready for EOL, and having those sets double in price, than for 10179 to double again. I am wary on GE and FB, I really feel there are going to be TONS of them out there sealed. It will take 5-10 years to get a whole lot back out of them. I love them, own them, but not sure about their potential.

I am personally a huge Haunted House proponent right now, think they won't be around forever, and it is an amazing model.

[azalon]

I can understand about the FB--I have a few but from when Amazon had them for $105. The GE is different in my opinion, since it's a corner building. I think once it gets past a few curves, it's a great long term set. I can see the FB hitting $200-250 but very, very slowing rising past that. The GE can exceed that, I think(maybe a 60% Green Grocer comparison). But there's a ton of sets out there in people's closets, garages and warehouses, all sitting sealed for years. People sell at different times based on different margins or goals or needs. Some won't be sold for another 10-20 years until the human owners of those sets are the ones who retire )

[Huskers1236]

I can understand about the FB--I have a few but from when Amazon had them for $105. The GE is different in my opinion, since it's a corner building. I think once it gets past a few curves, it's a great long term set. I can see the FB hitting $200-250 but very, very slowing rising past that. The GE can exceed that, I think(maybe a 60% Green Grocer comparison).

But there's a ton of sets out there in people's closets, garages and warehouses, all sitting sealed for years. People sell at different times based on different margins or goals or needs. Some won't be sold for another 10-20 years until the human owners of those sets are the ones who retire )

I agree with your assessment of GE and because of it being a corner, and I think it is a nicer set overall, one of my personal favorites due to the interior. I really wish I would have pounced on some GG's a year ago when they were $400, as I had the cash at the time, but not the foresight. At $600 now, a guy would have to tie up over $1000 for a pair of them. While you would make a lot of money I think, that's a lot to have in a couple sets, even though they will probably end up close to Cafe Corner and Market Street.

This conversation has made me feel better about the decision, since I had kind of made my mind up. My wife will think I'm crazy that I spent the time on that set, only to turn around and sell it, but she thinks I'm crazy for the most part anyway. She never understood sports cards either, but at least they only took up a few boxes. I am on my way to taking up half of the basement.

[sadowsk1]

A good return is hard to turn down in favor of buying even more. I have one and the thing that stops me from selling it is that I don't think I could invest in anything and make the money fast enough to buy the set back. With that in mind, if I did have that kind of money in front of me I don't think I could justify spending it on a Lego set. Let's all hope it just keeps climbing in value!

[Ed Mack]

I agree with your assessment of GE and because of it being a corner, and I think it is a nicer set overall, one of my personal favorites due to the interior. I really wish I would have pounced on some GG's a year ago when they were $400, as I had the cash at the time, but not the foresight. At $600 now, a guy would have to tie up over $1000 for a pair of them. While you would make a lot of money I think, that's a lot to have in a couple sets, even though they will probably end up close to Cafe Corner and Market Street.

This conversation has made me feel better about the decision, since I had kind of made my mind up. My wife will think I'm crazy that I spent the time on that set, only to turn around and sell it, but she thinks I'm crazy for the most part anyway. She never understood sports cards either, but at least they only took up a few boxes. I am on my way to taking up half of the basement.

As they say, you have to bet big to win big.

[Huskers1236]

They also say you have to HAVE big money to bet big.

[Ed Mack]

They also say you have to HAVE big money to bet big.

Credit cards are the betting LEGO investor's best friend... ;-)

[Rich B]

I agree with your assessment of GE and because of it being a corner, and I think it is a nicer set overall, one of my personal favorites due to the interior. I really wish I would have pounced on some GG's a year ago when they were $400, as I had the cash at the time, but not the foresight. At $600 now, a guy would have to tie up over $1000 for a pair of them. While you would make a lot of money I think, that's a lot to have in a couple sets, even though they will probably end up close to Cafe Corner and Market Street.

This conversation has made me feel better about the decision, since I had kind of made my mind up. My wife will think I'm crazy that I spent the time on that set, only to turn around and sell it, but she thinks I'm crazy for the most part anyway. She never understood sports cards either, but at least they only took up a few boxes. I am on my way to taking up half of the basement.

Huskers my girlfriend thinks I'm crazy too! I totally feel your pain brother. My basement is full of Lego and she thinks I am nuts. She hasn't even began to see what I have stashed away at my parents house 15 minutes up the road. It's all good though, people like you and I and everyone else on here are just doing what love, building and collecting Lego, oh and selling it too, which I don't get around to doing enough.

As far as the used 10179, if I were you I would go ahead and sell it as you'll clearly make a nice profit. Pick up some more Maersk Trains, QAR's, and/or holiday sets, especially 10216 since it should be EOL after this year and should double in price next year. This is all EOL info I'm sure you already know haha. I love the GE and FB and have built both and have some as investments, but like you said it seems like everyone has these. I am a firm believer that both the GE and FB will do well once EOL but I also believe it will take a long time since soooo many people seem to be sitting on them. The Maersk Train, QAR, and 10216 are all sold out and should be EOL (fingers crossed) and should all be investment winners that people haven't hoarded as much. Plus who knows when the FB and GE will ever retire, they may be the next "Live Stars" LOL

[stephen_rockefeller]

What gets everyones attention about the 10179 is the price.....I am not discounting that it is a phenomenal set but there are sets that have done way better in the aftermarket % wise. I personally think it will continue to go up in price, but I also think there are better investments % wise. If you have already built it and don't really have the room to display it I say sell it. Bottom line is that every investor/collector is different and I think its good to see what other people have to say but at the end of the day you have to do what you think is best for you and what you feel is right. No one here is gonna condemn you for either keeping it or selling........both options are solid ones!!

[M4x18]

You want to see a set which has skyrocketed? Try 10196. I don't know if it has gone over 10179 but man, those figures are amazing.

[Huskers1236]

I was pretty sure I put it in the "What did you sell today" thread, but I did indeed sell my 10179 a few weeks ago. Got about $1400 for it, which is about what I figured it would sell for. I have used the money so far to buy a 10174, 10175, 10186, and 10215 for $550. Haven't received them yet, but pretty happy about those. I'm not a big train guy, but I do have one Maersk set, and have started to load up on the previous 2 holiday sets since they will be gone this next year I assume. I really wanted to get one more QAR, but they are gone now and price is already jumping. I am really liking the prices of the SSD right now, but have so much I want for 2013 for building, like LotR and Hobbit sets, not to mention the rumored SW summer sets which sound awesome. Like Rich, my wife is not on board, mainly because I haven't been doing this long enough to start selling yet the new sets yet. Once that happens, and she sees the inventory even out every year, there will be more understanding I would think. Right now, she sees a mountain of piled cardboard boxes marked with set numbers.