71006 - The Simpsons House

[johnwray]

I just noticed that LEGO Shop at Home dropped the "Check back in September" blurb, so the Simpsons House is now labeled only as "Temporarily Out of Stock". Any guesses as to what that means? I can only surmise that their production schedule has changed so they don't want to tie themselves to any particular restock date, but I have no idea if it would be sooner or later than September.

[Flippingbricks]

Looks like stores around me still have plenty. Is any one who been doing investing for the past few years even remotely concerned about these going anytime soon. I wasn't here last yr so I missed all the retirements. Would like a few SH especially with the Kwiki mart coming but at the present my funds were going to other sets

[Grynn]

I just noticed that LEGO Shop at Home dropped the "Check back in September" blurb, so the Simpsons House is now labeled only as "Temporarily Out of Stock". Any guesses as to what that means?

 

Dance puppets, dance!

[zskid00]

I still see the "check back in September" under the TOOS status.

[Ciglione]

They are still available almost everywhere in physical shops and they have multiple copies on the shelf. That is probably why Lego feels comfortable enough to cease production until September.

[diablo2112]

This set is one of slowest moving exclusives in the EU SAH inventory data. FYI.

[Val-E]

Yes, stopping prouction will have m

[Ciglione]

Maybe Lego will do an Architecture Studio on us???

[johnwray]

I still see the "check back in September" under the TOOS status.

 

Yeah, I see it there now. Weird. I was looking at it on my mobile earlier, so maybe it just wasn't loading the page correctly.

[hxckid88]

Looks like stores around me still have plenty. Is any one who been doing investing for the past few years even remotely concerned about these going anytime soon. I wasn't here last yr so I missed all the retirements. Would like a few SH especially with the Kwiki mart coming but at the present my funds were going to other sets

it concerned at all. Excited. I hope it goes. I met my quota. I keep telling everyone to buy a few a month. I'm at 50. No f5 game needed for me. My time Is too valuable. How many times did is a buy hh, buy ssd, I'm at 57 ds now. Keep buying that target clearnece junk. Hogwash. Ed's prodigy

[zskid00]

Did emazers steal hxc's site password?

[GhostDad]

I honestly couldn't tell if that was sincere or a parody.  I'm sure emazers has lots of Simpsons Houses, and the 'buy every large exclusive' strategy is sort of like stock index fund investing -- simple but tough to beat, especially if you don't live near brick and mortar stores that regularly mark stuff down 80% or whatnot.  I'm really on the fence about SH though.  I watched SpongeBob and Ninjago sets nosedive last year, and it's made me very cautious about animated themes with motifs and minifigures that don't really fit in anywhere else (don't look now, but a walking sea cucumber just walked into the Town Hall, followed by a grinning snake holding a mystical dagger)!

[exciter1]

I honestly couldn't tell if that was sincere or a parody.  I'm sure emazers has lots of Simpsons Houses, and the 'buy every large exclusive' strategy is sort of like stock index fund investing -- simple but tough to beat, especially if you don't live near brick and mortar stores that regularly mark stuff down 80% or whatnot.  I'm really on the fence about SH though.  I watched SpongeBob and Ninjago sets nosedive last year, and it's made me very cautious about animated themes with motifs and minifigures that don't really fit in anywhere else (don't look now, but a walking sea cucumber just walked into the Town Hall, followed by a grinning snake holding a mystical dagger)!

 

I did very well with Spongebob sets last Christmas.

[Neosphinx]

I honestly couldn't tell if that was sincere or a parody.  I'm sure emazers has lots of Simpsons Houses, and the 'buy every large exclusive' strategy is sort of like stock index fund investing -- simple but tough to beat, especially if you don't live near brick and mortar stores that regularly mark stuff down 80% or whatnot.  I'm really on the fence about SH though.  I watched SpongeBob and Ninjago sets nosedive last year, and it's made me very cautious about animated themes with motifs and minifigures that don't really fit in anywhere else (don't look now, but a walking sea cucumber just walked into the Town Hall, followed by a grinning snake holding a mystical dagger)!

Biggest spongebob set is 471 pieces. The display value for a Simpsons-house is much higher. That may play in the advantage of SH.

[jerryherb]

Biggest spongebob set is 471 pieces. The display value for a Simpsons-house is much higher. That may play in the advantage of SH.

 

sorry but a million bobs are not equal one homer. its like comparing a kia to a rolls royce 

[brickolodon]

3818 SBob did well last 12 months...was on sale for 30 and now 99.99 and above...

[legowalker]

3818 SBob did well last 12 months...was on sale for 30 and now 99.99 and above...

You have GOT to be kiddin me. That POS is $99.99???

 

I am DEFINITELY investing in TSH.

[isocleas]

Almost all of the spongebob sets have appreciated nicely. Even the Flying dutchman which hung around Walmart at $17 for a few months is up to $38 on amazon.

 

Despite the Euro sales data portraying SH as a poor seller I think its going to sell out quickly in the next month or two here in the states. According to 3camel its basically maintained a top 3000 sales rank on amazon since it came out which not many exclusives do. I think lego maybe overproduced the set to some degree but that doesn't mean its unpopular. 

Edited April 11, 2015 by isocleas

[Neosphinx]

sorry but a million bobs are not equal one homer. its like comparing a kia to a rolls royce 

I tried to set aside the popularity of the show, chars etc. Just comparing the sets, SH is more detailed, more accurate and has more display value. Imo Simpsons is far more popular here than Spongebob (at least to the people that have the money)

[Ciglione]

You cannot compare Spongebob with the Simpsons I think.

 

Spongebob is for kids. And isn't there a new spongebob movie coming?

 

Simpsons is a bit more for adults. For AFOLs like us. That is why the Simpsons sets are more detailed. Spongebob sets are more playsets.

 

If the Simpsons House is to retire soon it may turn out to be a good investment in a couple of years. Even in Europe. But it will take time. In that way you can compare it to Spongebob. It needs time to ripe as an investment.

[diablo2112]

According to 3camel its basically maintained a top 3000 sales rank on amazon since it came out which not many exclusives do. 

 

Simpsons has been a below-average performer in sales rank for Lego exclusives on Amazon.  Here's data from Camel^3.  This is the highest sales rank achieved by a number of Lego exclusives over the last 3 months.  Nearly all Lego exclusives rank in the top 3000.  The popular ones usually rank in the top 50.

 

DO   9

PS    9

PC   11

Tumbler 14

PR   32

Simpson

[diablo2112]

You can read the relatively weak sales and unpopularity of Simpson's House in 2 ways.  On the supply side, they haven't had a lot of sales.  This is actually pretty good news for investors, you'll have less competition compared to hugely popular lines like the modulars.  On the other hand, it also indicates suppressed demand, at least at this stage while selling to the Lego masses.  

 

A key question then becomes, what will demand do in the long term, after EOL?  That's a judgement call.   

 

My opinion, nothing more, is that this set may gain in popularity after retirement, especially with KM and possibly additional sets in the theme.  Also, this is an AFOL set, and many AFOL don't know they want Lego yet; we get a steady stream of new adults (often new parents buying for kids) that "find" Lego each year, then proceed to build collections for themselves.  A Simpsons theme is well-aligned with AFOL collectors (as previously mentioned in this thread).  This gives retired sets new life, and explains why the collectable themes raise the value of early entries (Modulars, Star Wars UCS sets, etc.)

 

Now here's the trick: how do you combine these bits of data to find the relative desirability for investment?  Stated differently, how do you find sets where the demand/supply ratio may move upwards after EOL?   Low initial supply as evidenced by weak sales + delayed demand (speculating here) is a pretty good flag.  Given that, I actually think SH is a decent investment, even though sales have been lackluster.

Edited April 11, 2015 by diablo2112

[isocleas]

 

Simpsons has been a below-average performer in sales rank for Lego exclusives on Amazon.  Here's data from Camel^3.  This is the highest sales rank achieved by a number of Lego exclusives over the last 3 months.  Nearly all Lego exclusives rank in the top 3000.  The popular ones usually rank in the top 50.

 

DO   9

PS    9

PC   11

Tumbler 14

PR   32

Simpson

[diablo2112]

Nice post. You know I thought about editing out the "not many exclusives do" part since you're right there are alot of popular exclusives. However I do question the sets you choose for comparison as most of the ones ranked higher are either hot new sets that people desire to build or just to flip, or are sets speculated to retire soon thus driving the demand. Also by choosing to rank them by their sales rank high point it maximizes that advantage as the Simpsons house until now never had a strong EoL driving force. 

 

Just looking at the data, PR is neither a hot new set or slated to retire soon, its just popular, as the modulars always are.   My points were more to show that Amazon sales and EU inventory data are fairly well aligned.  Personally, I find that good news.  We have extensive EU inventory data, and it can be used for a number of good analysis.

Edited April 11, 2015 by diablo2112

[isocleas]

Just looking at the data, PR is neither a hot new set or slated to retire soon, its just popular, as the modulars always are.   My points were more to show that Amazon sales and EU inventory data are fairly well aligned.  Personally, I find that good news.  We have extensive EU inventory data, and it can be used for a number of good analysis.

 

Yes, PR is just a superior set all around. Honestly I thought the Euro data was showing SH was a weaker seller than what you're saying. If I knew the data sets were that close I probably wouldn't have said anything so I'm glad you pointed out the similarity. You've been drawing some great analysis from the euro data sales and I look forward to reading more in the future.