I have four of these now, I purchased them for about $60 on average ($55 after CC discounts ect), I thought the deals were too good to pass up but after seeing this set slump by, I have to wonder if I will ever get my money back. I know I have my own investment strategy here and getting stuff for as cheap as possible is part of it, but I am curious what your thoughts on this set. It is the biggest of its lineup, but if it isn't a disappointing set, I don't know what is. What are your thoughts on this set?

This set is -50% at Argos as even they are struggling to get rid of it.  I'm not too keen either and will only buy for parts if it ever reaches -75%.  LOL if this is a sleeper set that bites us in the arse next Xmas!

I think a couple of things:

 

1. Box sucks. It just isn't appealing. Can't put my finger exactly on why.

2. While the set looks nice once built, it just doesn't have a lot going on and doesn't have the insane detail that UG or HD has as bigger sets.

3. Goblin King looks weird. I don't know why, but it just looks kind've weird.

4. Overpriced

 

In all honesty, this set is probably undervalued. I think there is a case to be made that it could be a sleeper just because it may be one of those sets everyone puts down, forgets about, passes up, and then it surprises when people decide they want it later.

 

Overpricing  a set has a bigger impact than gets stated sometimes. If everyone sees it and says "I wouldn't pay for that", it starts to look worse and worse. Eventually you wont pay anything for it. I didn't bite for my collection until I found it for 44.99 which is a stupid price for a $100 set.

I bought this set for my collection at Target for $40.  Honestly, looking at pictures online I wasn't impressed by this set at all.  However, it was a fun build (gotta love that brick built rope bridge).  I think the biggest issue is that Lego decided to make this the flagship set.  I think it would have been better for Lego to have just the throne part as a set in the $30-$40 range, then make Unexpected gathering larger and have it as the flagship.  But, UG doesn't have room for many play features while GK does, which is probably why they went the way they did.  It seems like play features trump set design in today's Lego sets.

I'm on the opposite side of the fence - clear winner in my mind at 50% off in the future.  Perhaps part of the problem is psychological - when there are plenty on store shelves and discounts are huge investors tend to be a little wary.  We ask ourselves why they aren't moving sets at this price...and some of the above posts are some good reasons.  That being said, it comes from a great theme with probably at least another wave coming next year (I think Emazers said the license was until 2015) and once they dry up at retail and have been retired a year or two...

I am on the opposite side as many are on this set.  I believe that once this is done, it will be one of those that you wished you would have purchased.  At 50% off to me this is a no brainer.  I don't think you will get insane money for it in the future, but it should give you good returns at the 50% off amount.  It also displays well in my opinion and will provide many key minifigs that you won't be able to get in the future unless they release the dwarfs in a newer set.  Many people will part this out right away or try to flip for an easy profit.  Once these dry up it will be a nice sleeper in my opinion.  

yeah, at 50% off I picked up a couple more...there are still some available at my local TRU but I think it's just one of those stash away sets and being realistic about profit potential.  If you flip a few and make some cash, the rest of your Goblin King sets are even cheaper which is already 50% off retail.  The set still has 8 minifigs and decent pieces to do custom builds/models.   

I agree that under $50, this is great.  Lego has put it on sale at a deep discount and now is Sold Out.  Most of the time when a sale product goes to Sold Out it is a sign that it is almost EOL.  Sometimes small amount of stock will come back in like with the Orc Forge a month ago.  If this set goes EOL, it will have been out for only 1 year along with Attack of the Wargs (sold out) and Riddles for the Ring (sold out).  To me that is sign this set will hit retail or more without any trouble because of the figures alone.

 

I have picked up a bunch at $45.  I think that is a great price on a chance this EOLs early.  

I bought many more than 4 @ 42.75 w.target red card when target had the sale. Its a no brainer under $45 or either under $50. Just the price per brick cost makes a sweet deal. I am using the dwarfs and adding them to my unexpected gathering MOC and using others parts for MOC creations in LOTR sets. The color theme of bricks is homogeneous for other sets.

I'm on the opposite side of the fence - clear winner in my mind at 50% off in the future.  Perhaps part of the problem is psychological - when there are plenty on store shelves and discounts are huge investors tend to be a little wary.  We ask ourselves why they aren't moving sets at this price...and some of the above posts are some good reasons.  That being said, it comes from a great theme with probably at least another wave coming next year (I think Emazers said the license was until 2015) and once they dry up at retail and have been retired a year or two...

I agree.  People have a herd mentality and want to buy what everyone else is buying fulfilling their own prophecy.  Sound investing is doing your due diligence on risk, price, longevity, demand/supply, needs, goals, liquidity etc.  Then make your decision.  I am of a belief that some of the greatest investments in the lego world are that way today due to people that were not paying attention, and now they are.  I remember having two 10179 in my cart when they were brand new and thought to myelf "this is stupid who spends $800.00 on Lego".  The advantage we have today is that the market is huge and no one individual here has enough lego to move that market.  Global is a big deal.

I have 1 of these and it isnt great by any means but at

I had 10 and returned 9 couldn't find the receipt for the last 1. Not sold on The Hobbit sets. It seems people are buying the sets only to collect the 12 or so midgets in the movies. I have not heard anyone mentioned building Goblin armies either. You can think that's a contraian indicator since no one want it. IMO you are catching a falling knife keeping these.

At 50% off, even selling it back at retail gets you a reasonable return. Not every set has to go for hundreds of

Something is definately wrong with this set!
I pass by it all the time without giving a second look.  
I had a chance at it the other day on Amazon @$45, Passed!
I'll take chance on if it ever makes it to deep clearance at say (8 minifig x $3 =$24)  $24.

I sold one two this season for $70 shipped, but they both sat for about 20 days before it sold.  If it EOLs this winter, I would guess you could get at least that much for one in the future.  If it doesn't EOL, no telling how far the price on these will drop after the holidays. 

keep returning them I'm buying at 50% off then you will all want one when

 they are gone ha ha

keep returning them I'm buying at 50% off then you will all want one when

 they are gone ha ha

 

Then they drop to 75% off and you can smack your head 

 

haha

Most of these are still rotting in my dead Walmarts at $69. I'm hoping maybe they'll hit them with a 50% reduction off that price after Christmas.

I picked one up at K-Mart when they were doing one of their extra 50% off clearance toys sales. Paid just under $50. I built it once. It's not a bad build except the entire thing is modular. And there are no pieces connecting all the different modules. They're just supposed to sit there on the table next to each other. I'm tempted to try and part it out, although I've already applied the decals. I've got this compulsion to build sets the way Lego intended them to be built...

Probably wont be a big winner but what makes this set tempting was the massive discounts, i think i go all of mine around $60 and am hopping to pick up a few more near that price before it gets hard to find. Even if this set sells for retail of $100 you can still get 100% ROI if you bought at $50, given the lego investing market right now im fine with those numbers.

This set is solid.  It has been discounted since it first came out.  Why?  Who knows.

I currently have two of there I paid about $60 for, I would be happy selling them for $100.

This set is solid.  It has been discounted since it first came out.  Why?  Who knows.

I disagree. For $100US, $130 CAN, I`d much rather buy an Unexpected Gathering, and a Funhouse. If I was a parent, no doubt I`d be thinking the same thing. It sucks in comparison, only the dwarfs for collectors and pieces for builders could serve as somewhat of a  redemption, but definitely not for more then 1/2 MSRP. 

I find it a tad baffling that this set was down to like $45, and the Mirkwood spiders was down to $17, and now the spiders are up to $37 and this is over $100 again on Amazon.

 

Meanwhile, Weathertop drops under $70...

 

No one said this was easy to predict

 

But my 2 cents on this (and pretty much any set) is at 50% off,  you're going to make money. No matter what. If you bought these at 50% and returned them, you're wasting time and energy.

Probably wont be a big winner but what makes this set tempting was the massive discounts, i think i go all of mine around $60 and am hopping to pick up a few more near that price before it gets hard to find. Even if this set sells for retail of $100 you can still get 100% ROI if you bought at $50, given the lego investing market right now im fine with those numbers.

 

 

I agree.  Buying this set at 50% off discount can't go wrong.  There are always weird buyers that never buy any Lego sets until they go EOL or OOS, then all of a sudden they are willing to pay for more than MSRP for the sets.