10237 - Tower of Orthanc

[fantomas007]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

We have seen that there is a 300 euro ceiling on FB and GE and PS won´t get there for at least 18 months.

 

I think 300 euro ceiling for any new modular is just a fantasy. Look at the performance of PS - even it finished just 2-3 months ago, its interesting that there is no increase in prices and bricklink is full of offers for EUR 150, what is just RRP. I expect that a ceiling for PS and newer modular (except Assembly square of course) is EUR 200-220, maybe after 7-8 years can go higher. Look at GE - sleeping for more than a year on EUR 260-270 level... next year maybe EUR 300.

In new age it would be better to sell something for 50 % profit, rather than waiting 7-8 years for 100-150% profit (which is horrible per annum). Or buying anything in big discounts (50% at least).

[Val-E]

While there is no rarity value prices won´t increase on modulars, Tumbler or Red5. For ToO or Seacow, the problem is lack of demand not overhoarding. DS10188 got dinged by the remake.

If you check out my performance analysis table, sets like SW or Maze are growing much faster, heck even the classic XXL box is doing better than any exclusive. I don´t think the reward of high long-term appreciation outweighs the risks of remakes, scammers, space taken up and higher buy-ins on larger sets anymore.

 

Edited March 3, 2017 by Val-E

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, Val-E said:

It would have been better to have bought the Star Wars AT AT or ISD than any of the 2015 retired exclusives, even at full RRP and at 40% off  no brainer.

I have moved away from Exclusives because they are just not performing anymore.

I did mostly that (buying At-Ats, ISDs and Cantinas over most of the modulars and I've been laughing with each sale this year.  I can't believe what people are paying for those sets.  I still do have all 3 of the ToO that I bought for investment, but I always thought this is one of those sets to hold long long long term.  I still have yet to sell a single one of my LOTR/Hobbit investments, because I just see this theme being something that 5 to 6 years from now will be rare"r" to come by, and by then pristine"r" boxes will be harder to come by, and that's when it will be a good time to sell, because they should have the collectibility aspect to it, sort of like the Indiana Jones and Harry Potter theme do today.

I personally, can't understand why this set hasn't taken off past $300.00, since it's a beautiful set when built, and it's just a great display piece - one of Lego's best designed sets.  However, I think quite a lot of people have hoarded these, and that's a big part of it.

Regardless, I think this theme will do well, but it's going to take some time.  This is also a theme that I would find very hard to part with.  My son and I spent a lot of time accumulating the entire LOTR/Hobbit theme and it was our "obsession" from when they first came out until the last sets with the Battle of the Five Armies, and so I will not sell our personal collection.  This is one theme that my sons going to pass on to his kids.

[Wazzapova]

I would not be surprised if Lego came out with a set for Barad-dûr, the “Dark Tower,”. I'll be keeping all of my ToOs until that time and count my $$$ then.

[thebluewizard]

2 minutes ago, Wazzapova said:

I would not be surprised if Lego came out with a set for Barad-dûr, the “Dark Tower,”. I'll be keeping all of my ToOs until that time and count my $$$ then.

I doubt it. The license has surely expired by now, I don't think that Lego would create a one off/stand alone LOTR set.

[Wazzapova]

56 minutes ago, thebluewizard said:

I doubt it. The license has surely expired by now, I don't think that Lego would create a one off/stand alone LOTR set.

But nothing surprises me anymore with Lego. What a wondrous set the Dark Tower would be. Imagine this, the first set with multiple/glowing light bricks! Lava bricks around, a Gollum falling into the pit with ring feature! If Lego can make a Sally Ride minifigure, THREE Cate Blanchett minifures (Hela coming soon) and a One-Eyed Willy skeleton organ, anything is possible! 

[emonster]

Someone brings this thread back from the dead and boom!!! 20 replies overnight. That speaks volumes

I keep an eye on the price appreciation(barely anything!) and am sometimes tempted to buy more, but there are better places to park money in the short term. I think the price may even drop a little as sellers are getting itchy with overstock. IMO, in 3 or 4 years, this will be a winner for reasons mentioned by others; Awesome sets, and sellers are getting rid of stock cheap, so people are building the sets and not stocking them.

 

 

 

[jaylay]

Plus it's in the Lego Batman movie.

[Rodeogeorge]

This theme is problematic. On the one hand I am a big fan of the source material and I do like a few of the sets. The mini figs are great. However, lego dropped the ball with this theme. No nazgul fell beast. No baradur. Minas Tirith?No Sauron? He's the lord of the rings for crying out loud. All that said I do have faith in ToO.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

7 minutes ago, jaylay said:

Plus it's in the Lego Batman movie.

Funny if ToO is resurrected with a Batman logo on the box? ;-)

I've advertised my last one locally for £225 and little interest apart from an offer of £150. If I get £200, it's gone!

[Guest xuesongc]

I had 10 of these, found a buyer willing to take all 10 off me for RRP + $10. They have more faith in the set than I do, sold and happy I did.

[Rodeogeorge]

Plus it's in the Lego Batman movie.

Nerd alert: Sauron is in the second of the two towers, tower of baradur. Orthanc is sauruman.

[pete411]

2 minutes ago, xuesongc said:

I had 10 of these, found a buyer willing to take all 10 off me for RRP + $10. They have more faith in the set than I do, sold and happy I did.

Can you point him my way? I have 7 more for him lol.

[Kenxxx]

I've had mine listed on local craigslist for months at $199. No inquiries... nada.

[njseale]

2 minutes ago, Kenxxx said:

I've had mine listed on local craigslist for months at $199. No inquiries... nada.

Same here TOO @ $200 and DS @ $400 and I never even get lowballs.

 

Just horrible

[beatpoppa]

I will go down with the ship on these.

Either I watch this set go ugly duckling to swan or it'll forever remain my beloved ugly child.  

My favorite set in my favorite lego line.

Edited March 3, 2017 by beatpoppa

[Mathew]

Great set.  Never bought any for resale.  For financial reasons sold my built copy last year for close to what I paid for it ($170).  The big problem is that it's from a movie that was released over ten years ago.  Add to the fact that it has limited appeal to begin with.  As a side note (and it's probably already been mentioned) is how similar Darth Vader's lair in Rogue One is to Orthanc.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Mathew

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, Rodeogeorge said:

This theme is problematic. On the one hand I am a big fan of the source material and I do like a few of the sets. The mini figs are great. However, lego dropped the ball with this theme. No nazgul fell beast. No baradur. Minas Tirith?No Sauron? He's the lord of the rings for crying out loud. All that said I do have faith in ToO.

I don't think lego was going to produce 3 giant sized exclusives for this theme, so I can understand why they chose Orthanc over Minas Tirith and Barad-dûr.

However, they still could have made the fell beast, and Durin's Bane.  Overall, the theme is solid.

[Alpinemaps]

47 minutes ago, njseale said:

Same here TOO @ $200 and DS @ $400 and I never even get lowballs.

 

Just horrible

Here, I'll help. I'll take both off your hands for $200.

[njseale]

3 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

Here, I'll help. I'll take both off your hands for $200.

Both of my TOO at $200 each. No problem. ?

[Rodeogeorge]

28 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Overall, the theme is solid.

 

[zskid00]

This theme definitely had too much Hobbit and not enough LOTR, but I can see why they pushed the former with the movies being released at the time.  Outside of Unexpected Gathering, the Witch King Battle, and the Lonely Mountain there were a lot of Hobbit sets I could do without.  Having said that, I have made good money with both LOTR and Hobbit due to the right buy in prices.  It took them longer to get where I wanted though and I do still have some left to sell.

[junkrigger]

Its all a matter of choice and what you grew up with. Would rather read LOTR and build these sets rather than watching foul mouthed superheroes movies with their predictably boring and repetitive sets. Unexpected gathering is the only set I have personally opened and built in a long time. ToO is probably next.  If these never get remade that is significant as most that are bought now will get opened and enjoyed.  As an afol I can also appreciate how nice it must be for LoTR and Hobbit fans who missed these for whatever reason to be able to afford them now as a reasonably priced retired theme. This might actually help their performance long term.

Edited March 3, 2017 by junkrigger

[pete411]

In the US at least, I think that LOTR has just slipped from the collective consciousness. The Hobbit did nothing to restore the its popularity as the films were poorly received. At it's height, I think people thought that LOTR would join Star Wars, Indy, and Harry Potter in the pantheon of beloved franchises but it just hasn't. I don't think that more time will restore this. The franchise will slip farther and farther from people's memory.

[junkrigger]

2 minutes ago, pete411 said:

In the US at least, I think that LOTR has just slipped from the collective consciousness. The Hobbit did nothing to restore the its popularity as the films were poorly received. At it's height, I think people thought that LOTR would join Star Wars, Indy, and Harry Potter in the pantheon of beloved franchises but it just hasn't. I don't think that more time will restore this. The franchise will slip farther and farther from people's memory.

This could be ideal. No mainstream popularity would imply no remakes ever. Simply based on these being the original, possibly still best fantasy books of all time there will always be a following and new Lego LoTR/Hobbit fans.

Edited March 3, 2017 by junkrigger