10237 - Tower of Orthanc

[HappyHawkeye]

Since it is against the law, the short answer is NO.  Discussions on this subject will be deleted from the forum

whoa there big shooter, that was a joke!

[biking_tiger]

Of course profits have fallen over the past 5 years. I used to be able to make money on a common, non-exclusive purchased at MSRP. With clearance hunters and all kinds of GC wizardry, those days are long gone. Scarcity and price do have a positive correlation, but scarcity isn't the only thing driving profits. 

[mfortunek]

No. Scarcity creates demand. If the market is flooded, that added incentive is not going to help boost prices. The fact remains that there are still a lot of them out there and that will keep prices down. Do you think Town Hall is expensive now because it's the coolest modular? Nope. It's the least hoarded of all of the newer modulars because of the short lifespan and resellers weren't able to stockpile it as much as they would have liked.

I get that.  But Town Hall was the most expensive modular; it was priced 33% higher than GE and FB (its contemporaries) and it was the largest by a similar percentage.  

And it was available for 2.5 years.  That's not so short a lifespan.  

According to this website, its current value is 2.66 times retail whereas GE (just an arbitrary exemplar) is 1.93 times retail.

I attribute the Town Hall's success to its size, MSRP, and the fact that it's the "center" of the town. It's the hub, man. 

I'm with you when you say scarcity creates demand.  That's definitely true.  But I still think the coolness of a set will ultimately be the determining factor.  I think it trumps an extra 10% or 15% availability in supply

[thekragle]

Since it is against the law, the short answer is NO.  Discussions on this subject will be deleted from the forum

lol ... price collusion on the secondary toy market is laughable when you are dealing with individuals.... 

[bricketycricket]

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

Quality of the set isn't the only factor in determining reseller supply levels. Many people are trying to constantly time the market, so you get sets like the Haunted House that was always considered a quality set but many thought they had more time to acquire them. On the flip side, you get people snapping up Red 5s and Pet Shops like crazy this year, not because they're necessarily better than other available sets, but because they are expected to retire soon.

[Guest]

I get that.  But Town Hall was the most expensive modular; it was priced 33% higher than GE and FB (its contemporaries) and it was the largest by a similar percentage.  

And it was available for 2.5 years.  That's not so short a lifespan.  

According to this website, its current value is 2.66 times retail whereas GE (just an arbitrary exemplar) is 1.93 times retail.

I attribute the Town Hall's success to its size, MSRP, and the fact that it's the "center" of the town. It's the hub, man. 

I'm with you when you say scarcity creates demand.  That's definitely true.  But I still think the coolness of a set will ultimately be the determining factor.  I think it trumps an extra 10% or 15% availability in supply

TH was a short lifespan compared to most modulars. GE was much more hoarded than TH and available for 4.5 years, so that kind of goes along with what I said.

[pete411]

If I got a dollar for how many times I've seen "in for 2 more" in the PS thread, I could retire from Lego reselling!

[Darth_Raichu]

whoa there big shooter, that was a joke!

lol ... price collusion on the secondary toy market is laughable when you are dealing with individuals.... 

Either way, it is in our best interest to keep discussions about breaking the law away from the BP forums.

[FISHERDUYU]

Don't want to distract the thread any more.

But I think that the best retired set last year is BTTF.  90+ with 100+ resellers on amazon. Crazy.

My lesson is that never put all eggs in one bucket.

Clean your inventory earlier if you feel that one set is not good.

 

Edited August 5, 2015 by FISHERDUYU

[tonysbricks]

I am afraid there are delusions of grandeur if people think a couple individuals talking about price matching on a forum is price collusion.

[brickology101]

Received mine from Amazon today...25R5.

Box is in great shape :-) which is always a plus.

I am at 3 now, I will get one more later to reach my quota of 4.

[Ciglione]

What is the predominant theory about why hoarding lowers the future value of a retired set?

Is it because Lego ended up making more of the set than it would have if so many copies hadn't been purchased by said hoarders? 

Or is it because there will be more supply held specifically for resale in the future?

Or is it something else?  Frankly there are so many counterpoints to both theories raised above that I don't really see how hoarding has much to do with it.

Maybe someone can enlighten me.

I also have the feeling that nowadays a bigger percentage of (exclusive) sets remain sealed and may never be opened for building. So the availability of a set (in time) increases.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

This thing is not going away easily, available on Target, Amazon and Lego.com.....All at msrp.

[Wildemar]

It's a different story in EU and now you can be sure that it is on its last legs:

[S.African.AFOL]

It's a different story in EU and now you can be sure that it is on its last legs:

€230 doesn't seem so bad now Ciglione? ????

[botchy123]

Thank you ! As my favorite set ever, I am really expecting great profits on this one. The last time I had this feeling was for the Haunted House. I just cannot see what could go wrong with this set.    

And I perfectly agree on the number of minifigs. Even if in the end, you understand it is not really a playset. There is a ton of details, but very little room for playing. It is more of a majestic piece of work made of LEGO bricks. 

 

I hope you make good profits as well, just i thought there are better current sets to buy than this. If it goes to 2000 Dollars it does not matter to me as i bought none, Certainly wont lose any sleep over it 

[Sozial]

I hope you make good profits as well, just i thought there are better current sets to buy than this. If it goes to 2000 Dollars it does not matter to me as i bought none, Certainly wont lose any sleep over it 

I am in the same boat, I got none. Just look at 9474, I know 10237 is more special but bought at retail it will take some time until you will see some $$, but I wish you the best of luck.

[mudcatsfan]

Ironically, you can now add to bag in the US with a ship date just 2 weeks out.

The hilarious part of this, the TOO was the only set that said NOTHING about either Temp out of Stock, nor the message about, don't worry we're making more. It only said SOLD OUT.

And yet, it's now back and orderable.

Let that be proof that you CAN NOT TRY TO INFER ANY LOGIC from these crazy stock descriptions.

Man this game is fun though isn't it ? :)

[jay4e]

Ironically, you can now add to bag in the US with a ship date just 2 weeks out.

The hilarious part of this, the TOO was the only set that said NOTHING about either Temp out of Stock, nor the message about, don't worry we're making more. It only said SOLD OUT.

And yet, it's now back and orderable.

Let that be proof that you CAN NOT TRY TO INFER ANY LOGIC from these crazy stock descriptions.

Man this game is fun though isn't it ?

I suspect it is done in the US as well.  It is not uncommon for this in and out of stock to happen when a set is approaching the end.  Its a combination of stock redistribution and re-inventorying.  I assume as stock runs out they redistribute between LEGO Shop at Home regions, LEGO stores, and may even buy back from retailers. Currently the US dollar is strong so extra stock will likely end up here first.  plus they always find a few boxes they did not expect.

Edited August 6, 2015 by jay4e

[Val-E]

For me, how this set performs on the secondary market will say a lot about the evolution of Lego investing since the big cull of 2014. An (in theory) not very hoarded large exclusive set with license, reasonably short production and not many opportunities to get it on discount are all in its favour. Will the market be flooded by too many resellers vs customers, though????

[S.African.AFOL]

For me, how this set performs on the secondary market will say a lot about the evolution of Lego investing since the big cull of 2014. An (in theory) not very hoarded large exclusive set with license, reasonably short production and not many opportunities to get it on discount are all in its favour. Will the market be flooded by too many resellers vs customers, though????

Many people are doubting this set and haven't bought in...perhaps also a good sign.

[Mathew]

For me, how this set performs on the secondary market will say a lot about the evolution of Lego investing since the big cull of 2014. An (in theory) not very hoarded large exclusive set with license, reasonably short production and not many opportunities to get it on discount are all in its favour. Will the market be flooded by too many resellers vs customers, though????

I like Orthanc as a set but I don't think that there will be a lot of demand for it down the road.  It's one of those sets that I think is appreciated by a small, clutch of collectors who have already purchased it.  It's retirement is not catching people off guard like HH, TH or even R2.

[Val-E]

 

I like Orthanc as a set but I don't think that there will be a lot of demand for it down the road.  It's one of those sets that I think is appreciated by a small, clutch of collectors who have already purchased it.  It's retirement is not catching people off guard like HH, TH or even R2.

Yup, it even seems like it outstayed its welcome. I suspect that a lot of us have invested in this set but maybe with less units than usual. This could mean there is a big initial bump as no one can or wants to sell cheap, but then very little forward movement, as with AA.

[legoray01]

 

I like Orthanc as a set but I don't think that there will be a lot of demand for it down the road.  It's one of those sets that I think is appreciated by a small, clutch of collectors who have already purchased it.  It's retirement is not catching people off guard like HH, TH or even R2.

The retirement of this set is easily predictable.  The movies are done.  The other LOTR sets are all gone.  IT was inevitable that it would retire this year.  Investors don't see the large demand that the death star has drought at EOL as those who have bought in have done so already where Death Star was "get your last one" as the hoard moved.  Here the hoard that was going to be in front of it already were in front of it.  IMHO

[biking_tiger]

I think it will see it's day, but new fans need to come into the fold. An AFOL LOTR fan who wasn't able to purchase/didn't know about it during production is your customer of the future. This will be sought after years to come--just not next month.