10237 - Tower of Orthanc

[landphieran]

Back in stock with: Order fulfill date of August 20

Have to go to the product page.

[Brian Briggs]

I just looked up the latest ToO listing sold on German ebay: price was 254,99€ including shipping. Cheapest ebay listing is now at 276,90€ shipped, cheapest listing on German amazon is 252,99€ including shipping. It will be interesting to see how prices will evolve from now on.

[Cardiff]

I just looked up the latest ToO listing sold on German ebay: price was 254,99€ including shipping. Cheapest ebay listing is now at 276,90€ shipped, cheapest listing on German amazon is 252,99€ including shipping. It will be interesting to see how prices will evolve from now on.

Well, I think this set is a winner. Lifespan of approx. 2 years, popular theme, not to overpriced, ...

[Ciglione]

Well, I think this set is a winner. Lifespan of approx. 2 years, popular theme, not to overpriced, ...

Yes, you can compare this one with HH in the monster theme. Just I think it will not rise that fast.

[S.African.AFOL]

I'm starting to think that my 5 may not be enough. I can still get at least another 5 without raising eyebrows at the main Cape Town shop, but it will take a long time to move 10 of these in our small market. And with the Depreciation of our currency I'm currently paying about $185... Decisions decisions!

[Cardiff]

Yes, you can compare this one with HH in the monster theme. Just I think it will not rise that fast.

Guess next cristmas we'll see Depends on how many were stocked by reselleres. Think it's far less horded than other exclusives, Modulars especially.

[Ciglione]

Guess next cristmas we'll see Depends on how many were stocked by reselleres. Think it's far less horded than other exclusives, Modulars especially.

Offcourse, time will tell. People who are expecting TH gains will be very disappointed.

[S.African.AFOL]

Yes, you can compare this one with HH in the monster theme. Just I think it will not rise that fast.

HH scored a lot from it's ability to fit into people's towns. I think 10237 will cast a bit of an ominous mood over a bright and sunny modular town! The other side of the argument is that LOTR is a franchise that will never die whereas HH has no mainstream franchise. I also think that the ToO is more unique and it is the only decent castle that TLG has made in a decade.

[S.African.AFOL]

Similar to 10210 being the only standout ship they made in a decade. QAR and BP were awesome, but the IF just appeals to a much larger audience because of it's conventional sailing ship theme. The detail on the QAR is much cooler though. Going off topic...sorry.

[inversion]

I think Orthanc will be okay. Its success shouldn't be exactly tied to the movies. The books are classics. We will have lots of UCS SW sets, but this is the only one from LotR. Think about that.

[rebuild]

People who are expecting TH gains will be very disappointed.

That should be your signature at the end of every post.

[pete411]

In the US where LOTR is still quite popular, I think it will double after two years and plateau there. All exclusive sets are hoarded these days so expecting much more than that is not reasonable.

Edited August 5, 2015 by pete411

[mfortunek]

What is the predominant theory about why hoarding lowers the future value of a retired set?

Is it because Lego ended up making more of the set than it would have if so many copies hadn't been purchased by said hoarders? 

Or is it because there will be more supply held specifically for resale in the future?

Or is it something else?  Frankly there are so many counterpoints to both theories raised above that I don't really see how hoarding has much to do with it.

Maybe someone can enlighten me.

[Sozial]

What is the predominant theory about why hoarding lowers the future value of a retired set?

Is it because Lego ended up making more of the set than it would have if so many copies hadn't been purchased by said hoarders? 

Or is it because there will be more supply held specifically for resale in the future?

Or is it something else?  Frankly there are so many counterpoints to both theories raised above that I don't really see how hoarding has much to do with it.

Maybe someone can enlighten me.

Well more sets being hoarded --> more supply --> slower gains

[Mos_Eisley]

What is the predominant theory about why hoarding lowers the future value of a retired set?

Is it because Lego ended up making more of the set than it would have if so many copies hadn't been purchased by said hoarders? 

Or is it because there will be more supply held specifically for resale in the future?

Or is it something else?  Frankly there are so many counterpoints to both theories raised above that I don't really see how hoarding has much to do with it.

Maybe someone can enlighten me.

Supply and demand.  If the secondary market is flooded with sets, prices will stay down unless every person across the globe agrees to keep their price above a certain point.

[LegoSeneity05]

I'm really excited to see where this one goes! This is my first Lego investment but I'm small time.

[mfortunek]

 

Supply and demand.  If the secondary market is flooded with sets, prices will stay down unless every person across the globe agrees to keep their price above a certain point.

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

[pete411]

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

No. Scarcity creates demand. If the market is flooded, that added incentive is not going to help boost prices. The fact remains that there are still a lot of them out there and that will keep prices down. Do you think Town Hall is expensive now because it's the coolest modular? Nope. It's the least hoarded of all of the newer modulars because of the short lifespan and resellers weren't able to stockpile it as much as they would have liked.

[FISHERDUYU]

The latest tragedies are T1 camper and WVM. Though they are good sets.

[Guest]

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

Unfortunately one's perception doesn't change the reality of falling secondary market profits over the last 5+ years. Global demand for Legos is at an all time high, so the only way that secondary market prices could possibly fall is if supply is increasing even faster.

Edited August 5, 2015 by MarxMarvelous

[biking_tiger]

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

Yes, it's a much more complex system than simple supply vs. demand, because the demand for certain sets--even if they have very limited supply--isn't that high. I've posted this too often (likely), but a retired Lego set is no different than other collectibles in one key way: it's only worth what a buyer is willing to pay. As a collector, of course I'd pay more for a HH than a retired fire station. 

Okay, bad example because there's always a new fire station...

But the meaning is there. A highly desirable set which sells well will garner a better price than an unpopular set with less supply. This is the beauty of uber-popular lines like the modular buildings. I will pay more for something I want. I'm not paying for scarcity, although scarcity does come into play. It's what has made TH the "perfect storm" of the last year. 

TH = cool theme + high desirability + relative scarcity = 

The latest tragedies are T1 camper and WVM. Though they are good sets.

Don't count on T1 being a tragedy. 

[El Guapo]

This is what I've long assumed the theory to be.  However, I guess I just see it a different way.  My perspective is this: a set that is heavily hoarded is a set that we all agree is going to remain popular.  And a non-hoarded set is a set that many people don't think is going to be that popular post-retirement.

I am operating under the basic premise that this community (the hoarders) is generally right.  We know what is cool and what isn't.  We know what we like, and what other AFOLs are going to like in two or three or six years. So if we all hoard something thinking it's super awesome and lots of people are going to want it later, aren't we usually going to be correct?  And isn't that extra demand going to balance out with the extra supply?

That's the way I've always seen it.

 

Hoarders (including me), have hit some home runs with some sets and then been caught looking with the bases loaded on others.  So don't put too much stock into what everyone else is doing.  Some sets do well because they are just too awesome not to (modulars and Haunted House, for example) while other do well because they are overlooked by the masses until it is too late (Town Hall).

[FISHERDUYU]

The latest tragedies are T1 camper and WVM. Though they are good sets.

Extremely hoarded. No hope unless you do not have any better choice.

[HappyHawkeye]

Do we have a price fixing collusion thread somewhere? 

[Darth_Raichu]

Do we have a price fixing collusion thread somewhere? 

Since it is against the law, the short answer is NO.  Discussions on this subject will be deleted from the forum