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10237 - Tower of Orthanc


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I think once we see the remaining sets at TRU go away, and the hobbit line disappears from retail that it will start to gain.  I'm still a believer in the sets with wargs, cave trolls, smaug, and ringwraiths.  Technically, this series is not completely done yet, but I think will be by years end.

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As a fan, I am still a believer in LOTR/Hobbit.  They won't all do well, but I have inventory of most sets from the beginning that have done decent so far.  I wish I had bought more Shelob's Lair at a discount though.  Who knew that would be the only set with Sam in it?

Edited by zskid00
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So it was like last year again?

sets marked as sold out in July and retire in the year end / next year beginning?

 

The only LOTR and Hobbit sets that haven't had the retirement tag applied is the Tower of Orthanc, 2 of the Desolation of Smaug sets (Dol Guldur Battle, and Mirkwood Elf Army), and all 4 of the Battle of the Five Army Sets. 

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LOTR sets will probably do well, but it will take 5 years, and that's assuming they haven't brought out a better Castle/Kingdom line of sets that create better castles and fantasy themed builds because if they do it will further decrease interest in LOTR.  Helms Deep has been retired about a year now and it's still holding strong at $150-180 even though it's the best castle set available for a few years, several other sets are only $10-30 over MSRP.  I would have been sure 2 years ago that Helms Deep would have been $250-300 right now for what you get, but that's not in the foreseeable future and it seems like there are tons of these sets available still.  It's just going to take much longer for these second tier popularity themes to increase in value, and even then the buying market is far more limited than to people looking for Star Wars or Super Heroes.   The gravy train has ended.

Edited by JRandall
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My two cents...I think the biggest limit to the value of ToO is that TLG never made the tower of barad-dur. If that had happened I think each set would have made the other more collectible. But I'm a little bias because personally I would have preferred ToBD over ToO. 

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My two cents...I think the biggest limit to the value of ToO is that TLG never made the tower of barad-dur. If that had happened I think each set would have made the other more collectible. But I'm a little bias because personally I would have preferred ToBD over ToO. 

Here it is

Tower of Barad-dur.jpg

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Boy, they are full of a bunch of "psyche's" lately.  Of course, the last time Tower came back in was just a few weeks back, so it was only in stock for about 2 weeks before it sold out again.  I bet the next run is about the same. 

This is why I refuse to buy another EV just yet too.  I'm sticking to my guns and waiting another month or two..

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And that's the key. As long as you follow an strategy with the sets you like (say, I'll buy 5 TOO by the time it reaches 2 years on the shelves or whatever), retirement talk shouldn't matter too much. The idea is to have your target amount before the thing goes, and once you really believe it is about to be retired, make the decision to try and get more if you can. The difference is that once you reach your target goal, whether you get more or not shouldn't matter. Buying more would be a positive, but failing to would not be a disaster. As with any investment, you can make tactical deviations from these. If you believe RE will be very unique or whatever, then buy some and be comfortable with the risk. I'm not the first to say this by any stretch of the imagination, but it's good to bring it up every so often.

Amen brother! All newbies pay attention to this.
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And that's the key. As long as you follow an strategy with the sets you like (say, I'll buy 5 TOO by the time it reaches 2 years on the shelves or whatever), retirement talk shouldn't matter too much. The idea is to have your target amount before the thing goes, and once you really believe it is about to be retired, make the decision to try and get more if you can. The difference is that once you reach your target goal, whether you get more or not shouldn't matter. Buying more would be a positive, but failing to would not be a disaster. As with any investment, you can make tactical deviations from these. If you believe RE will be very unique or whatever, then buy some and be comfortable with the risk. I'm not the first to say this by any stretch of the imagination, but it's good to bring it up every so often.

Amen 2.0. Sticking with a strategy can help control the irrational, emotional decisions that sink many investors (in anything). Relying on emotions for investment decisions is more like gambling, and the house always wins. 

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