7965 - Millennium Falcon

[ToysPT]

Hi there,

 My first post, to let you know that after the "dance" between expected ship date and "in Stock", now has gone on Lego LEGO Shop at Home Europe.-Sold Out.

Glad that i have bought mine 1 month ago, tomorrow we have 50% discount at a big supermarket, maybe can find another.

 For what i am reading, it's hard to believe that some Star Wars Sets can be EOL because the New Movie it's coming, but there is a probability that Lego thinks the opposite about the oldest sets because they have many more to release, and something have to be done to sell the newest ones.

 So, i think that there is a probability that R2-D2 can be almost at EOL too as started to do the same dance 2 months ago.

[Val-E]

It

Edited November 9, 2014 by valenciaeric

[Locutus001]

like the Bat signal ... youde need to turn on the Ed signal if you want him ...

 

Lol, I haven't been on this forum long enough. What does that even mean!

 

Here on the forum there are some people who play the investment game longer and more intensive than other people do...

As far as I can tell (from what is said here) Ed and Ed and emazers are pretty serious players. If LEGO investment would be game of thrones then Ed and Ed probably would be Lord Tywin Lanister and Lord Mace Tyrell, while emazers probably would just have hatched three dragons.

 

(So some people like to hear their thoughts on some of the sets).

Edited November 9, 2014 by Locutus001

[Bold-Arrow]

Emazers is ED, unless there is a third one now. Hard to keep up with all the posts this weekend . Lol

[Locutus001]

Emazers is ED, unless there is a third one now. Hard to keep up with all the posts this weekend . Lol

Always thought there would be a third Ed ;-)

But I bet there is at least a third big player here... so just add his name to the list so that I can keep my GoT metaphor alive

[ToysPT]

Valenciaeric,

 I didn't say for you to buy as much as you can, or that tomorrow are not on the stores anymore.

  Only posted the info that is sold out on LEGO Shop at Home and maybe that info can help someone deciding the next buy

 as helped me to decide my latest buys.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

i am really jonesing for a good MF sale.

this set is always excluded from sales because it sells so well usually w/o much discount.

the bigger question to ask is what will the price do when it goes eol. 

 

this set gives me a death star vibe like it isn't ever gonna leave, but when it does, the price will go up.

this is one of the few $50+ star wars sets that consistently sells in the hundreds per month on ebay - this is more than 3 years into its life cycle.

when it goes eol and the supply dries up that type of demand isn't just going to disappear and prices will rise briskly.

if there is no MF remake, i think will give the recent modulars a run for their money in the short term.

this is one set where the enduring demand more so than the supply or rarity of distribution makes it a winner.

 

if there is a new MF, this is the depiction of 7965 price curve.

 

 

Eh the last MF was almost the same, just slightly smaller. I think this is one of those short term gainers when it retires. Last year I had about 4 of these, I sold them all during Christmas for double what I paid for them (170$).

 

I have 4 more this year. I will definitely buy more if they go on sale again. But in general I think if these retired this year, they would skyrocket for a bit. But chances are with the new movie, new Falcon. Can't imagine we wont get one. This one will still be sought after, but I think it could be one of those quick gainers that kind of slows down, like The Hulk Helicarrier set.

 

I would just say it will hit 200$ and then slow way down.

[Val-E]

For me there are 2 short term windows of opportunity to sell - this Christmas if there really is a stock shortage and the period from EOL until the remake is released. Later on there might be a third when the new film is released.

[biniou]

It's not that simple. This set can be a long term winner.

 

I mean, lego will certainly make a new MF. But the new one will be the one from the new trilogy and have a new crew inside -it will not include Leia for example-.

And what if it's rusted with brown pieces ? It will look not exactly the same as the one in the original trilogy.

 

Also, look at the new versions of the Imperial star destroyer, the B-wing... They are small/not that big compared with the older versions.

And it's been a long time since we didn't get a medium-sized MF (500 pieces).

 

That's why I think we'll have:

1) a $69-$99 version of the MF (autumn 2015 ?), about 600-900 pieces. Most likely from the new trilogy, but a MF from the original trilogy is possible if a UCS MF from the new trilogy is scheduled shortly after.

and

2) a UCS MF from the new trilogy (2016 ? 2017 ?), $250, about 2500 pieces

 

So whatever the scenario, in my opinion it is very unlikely to see a MF from the original trilogy bigger than the 7965. We'll have to wait something like 4 years to see one bigger (if it happens).

 

Aside note:

Set / year / pieces
7965 / 2011 / 1254
7778 / 2009 / 356
10179 / 2007 / 5195
4504 / 2004 / 985
7190 / 2000 / 663

Edited November 10, 2014 by biniou

[hannibal]

It's not that simple. This set can be a long term winner.

 

I mean, lego will certainly make a new MF. But the new one will be the one from the new trilogy and have a new crew inside -it will not include Leia for example-.

And what if it's rusted with brown pieces ? It will look not exactly the same as the one in the original trilogy.

 

Also, look at the new versions of the Imperial star destroyer, the B-wing... They are small/not that big compared with the older versions.

And it's been a long time since we didn't get a medium-sized MF (500 pieces).

 

That's why I think we'll have:

1) a $69-$99 version of the MF (autumn 2015 ?), about 600-900 pieces. Most likely from the new trilogy, but a MF from the original trilogy is possible if a UCS MF from the new trilogy is scheduled shortly after.

and

2) a UCS MF from the new trilogy (2016 ? 2017 ?), $250, about 2500 pieces

 

So whatever the scenario, in my opinion it is very unlikely to see a MF from the original trilogy bigger than the 7965. We'll have to wait something like 4 years to see one bigger (if it happens).

 

Aside note:

Set / year / pieces

7965 / 2011 / 1254

7778 / 2009 / 356

10179 / 2007 / 5195

4504 / 2004 / 985

7190 / 2000 / 663

Amazing analogy with a lot of good info to back it up!

 

What you say makes a lot of sense to me! There is a lot of reason to believe the design of the MF will be slightly altered in the new movies, this is what I would do if I was JJ Abraham or the Creative/Art Director. Being in the creative field I know this new movie is an excellent opportunity to introduce some tweaks to the well known & loved star ships of the galaxy. After all...long time has passed since Leia & Luke were young

 

Another thing to point out though. IF there is an updated MF which is featured in the Movies, we won't see a glimpse of it until Dec/January when the new movies reach the Cinemas. Lego can not leapfrog Disney and present it's new product before the movie has been seen in the Cinemas wordlwide. Therefore its highly unlikely a new MF will be shown any time before Dec/Jan 2015. Which automatically excludes seeing a new MF (whether small, mid size or UCS version) in 2015.  

[mudcatsfan]

Amazing analogy with a lot of good info to back it up!

 

What you say makes a lot of sense to me! There is a lot of reason to believe the design of the MF will be slightly altered in the new movies, this is what I would do if I was JJ Abraham or the Creative/Art Director. Being in the creative field I know this new movie is an excellent opportunity to introduce some tweaks to the well known & loved star ships of the galaxy. After all...long time has passed since Leia & Luke were young

 

Another thing to point out though. IF there is an updated MF which is featured in the Movies, we won't see a glimpse of it until Dec/January when the new movies reach the Cinemas. Lego can not leapfrog Disney and present it's new product before the movie has been seen in the Cinemas wordlwide. Therefore its highly unlikely a new MF will be shown any time before Dec/Jan 2015. Which automatically excludes seeing a new MF (whether small, mid size or UCS version) in 2015.  

 

toy companies frequently (almost always) release their wares well ahead of a movie's release. They try not to make them plot spoilers, but all the Episode 1, 2, & 3 toys came out well ahead of their theater releases.

 

I'm sure we'll see TONS of Episode 7 toys in stores next black friday.

[Spanky]

Another thing to point out though. IF there is an updated MF which is featured in the Movies, we won't see a glimpse of it until Dec/January when the new movies reach the Cinemas.

 

I disagree. The marketing drumbeat for Episode VII will begin months ahead of movie release (in some regards it has already begun). There is no reason to keep the appearance of the MF secret unless there is some big surprise associated with it. Purposeful leaks have already show parts of the exterior and interior appearance; the only change that is speculated for the MF so far is the round sensor dish (which was destroyed in Episode VI) has been replaced with a square sensor dish.

 

The leaks I've read so far suggest that the appearance of every ship other than the MF has changed.  For example, the X-Wings in the movie are "New X-Wings" with only 2 engines instead of 4. But the MF will still be the MF.

 

Coming back to point; I've speculated elsewhere here about 7965. I'm certain that TLG will discontinue it before Episode VII because it has the wrong minifigs to tie into the movie. I'm also pretty certain that there will be a new MF to tie into Episode VII.  The big unknown is what size will the new MF be?

[biniou]

Therefore its highly unlikely a new MF will be shown any time before Dec/Jan 2015. Which automatically excludes seeing a new MF (whether small, mid size or UCS version) in 2015.  

 

Thanks for the kind compliments.

But IMO, with the multiple trailers (let's say one month or two before the movie is on screens), and the need to "warm up" interest in movie, it's very likely to have a MF in stores on (let's say) november 2015 (movie on mid-december 2015). Toys are on shelves for a longer time compared to movies on theaters screens. So they have to be available before, at the same moment, and after the movie theater.

 

By the way look at the Ghost (spaceship) from SW rebels. It was available before the serie was on TV.

 

edit: oh and BTW when I told to a friend that the 7965 may retire and then he will have to buy the new version of the MF (he still doesn't have a MF), he told me "No way ! I want the one from SW IV/V/VI ! Not the new version !" so he asked me to grab one 7965 with a nice discount (35% off) as soon as I can...

Edited November 10, 2014 by biniou

[meowingthings]

These are now deleted in Walmart's Inventory. What is left is it (at Walmart).

Edited November 11, 2014 by meowingthings

[Guest TabbyBoy]

My 2p worth is that a newer/better MF will be out by episode 7 to supercede this or the 10179 or.... both!  This may be why this version is hanging on for so long.

[trekgate502]

These are now deleted in Walmart's Inventory. What is left is it (at Walmart).

 

I can order 5 at Walmart.com do you mean store inventory?

[fuzzy_bricks]

These are now deleted in Walmart's Inventory. What is left is it (at Walmart).

 

I can order 5 at Walmart.com do you mean store inventory?

Me too, not sure what they're referring too.

Batcave made a disappearance from Target's website last year and it ended up coming back.

[Ed Mack]

I disagree. The marketing drumbeat for Episode VII will begin months ahead of movie release (in some regards it has already begun). There is no reason to keep the appearance of the MF secret unless there is some big surprise associated with it. Purposeful leaks have already show parts of the exterior and interior appearance; the only change that is speculated for the MF so far is the round sensor dish (which was destroyed in Episode VI) has been replaced with a square sensor dish.

 

The leaks I've read so far suggest that the appearance of every ship other than the MF has changed.  For example, the X-Wings in the movie are "New X-Wings" with only 2 engines instead of 4. But the MF will still be the MF.

 

Coming back to point; I've speculated elsewhere here about 7965. I'm certain that TLG will discontinue it before Episode VII because it has the wrong minifigs to tie into the movie. I'm also pretty certain that there will be a new MF to tie into Episode VII.  The big unknown is what size will the new MF be?

With the new movies being set in the future, I would expect a change in vehicle appearance.  I see the new sets and versions having very little effect on the older set's values.  If anything, the new movies will help the older versions increase in value.

[biniou]

These are now deleted in Walmart's Inventory. What is left is it (at Walmart).

 

I checked this afternoon on the internet and more often than usually, sets are from third-party sellers.

I'm a little surprised because Xmas is in 44 days. Right now is not a moment buyers check for Xmas gifts, it's too early.

I would expect a retirement about 2 weeks before Xmas, not that soon.

Hmmm I don't know what to think. A best seller, not available for Xmas ? If I were lego, I would make another run for retailers.

[Val-E]

Stil lots on Amazon DE and ES. I agree that there is probably going to be at least one other big delivery at the end of November to meet demand as this one is in all the catalogues. Might be a couple of weeks with low stock in the meantime though.

[meowingthings]

These are now deleted in Walmart's Inventory. What is left is it (at Walmart).

I apologize, yes the Walmart store. Walmart has 4 general inventory statuses,

 

Active - can be manually or system ordered, has a home on the shelf.

Deleted - can not be ordered, fill space with other product  when sells through

Non Replenish - Can not be ordered at store level, 1 step away from deleted. Currently Olivia's House has this status.

Not Traded - store specific, for example one store may carry the GE the other may not be traded for it so it doesn't.

[M4x18]

It's Sold Out at LEGO Shop at Home ES at the moment.

Edit: didn't read the earlier post from ToysPT. Move along, nothing new to see here.

Edited November 12, 2014 by M4x18

[trekgate502]

Something is compelling me to buy a stack of these from Target at $119

Not sure which side of the force is calling.

[Val-E]

Amazon ES are price matching some supermarkets so it is now down to 117 euros max purchase 3 units. Not  a bad Price if EOL is imminent,

[Val-E]

So the deal is I can get them for 89 euros (MSRP 159 and out of stock). We know this one is likely to be gone in the near future but I suspect there will be another production run before Christmas. We also know there will be a remake next year but in what price bracket?

 

Do I get them at 89 and try to flip betting on an EOL or shop shortage at Christmas? Will the long term investment potential not be affected by the remake e.*** people will prefer to ge the new version at list Price if it is say 300 euros than to pay 200 euros or so for the older one?

 

Interested to know your thoughts. I have one MF already but it cost 113 so I am hanging on to it until EOL.