7965 - Millennium Falcon

[jerryherb]

im dumping all mine, even at the lower price (amazon down only about $20) still making killer profit. once the general public gets a whiff and its on the shelves early at TRU its game over.

[Sandwraith]

I believe the window is still wide open . still early in the game and most of the general public have no idea about the new set . I see the price rising again in the next few weeks . 

​Exactly.

Still money to be made on this set even at full retail here in Canada. Walmart.ca is still finding stock every few weeks and I've been ordering them and selling them off pretty quick for a decent profit. The general public won't know about a new MF coming at this point. And until box art surfaces and people on ebay start doing "pre-orders" for it; most will still just be searching "LEGO Millenium Falcon" and getting 7965 results.

Even if hints were there from Ed; it was pretty obvious a new one was coming no matter what. Especially we saw "Hero Vehicle" at $179.99CAD. So i got rid of my hold stock, and now all i have is sets coming in that will quickly be flipped.

[legoray01]

This makes the one I sold at a garage sale a few weeks ago for $200 and lot less painful.  I have two  I was holding anyway so I am okay with what ever happens.  The hints have been there and so that is why I was willing to let it go.  A nice profit from a set I bought in December.  Thanks to those on Brickpicker who have been discussing themed sized MF for months now.

[jerryherb]

​Exactly.

Still money to be made on this set even at full retail here in Canada. Walmart.ca is still finding stock every few weeks and I've been ordering them and selling them off pretty quick for a decent profit. The general public won't know about a new MF coming at this point. And until box art surfaces and people on ebay start doing "pre-orders" for it; most will still just be searching "LEGO Millenium Falcon" and getting 7965 results.

Even if hints were there from Ed; it was pretty obvious a new one was coming no matter what. Especially we saw "Hero Vehicle" at $179.99CAD. So i got rid of my hold stock, and now all i have is sets coming in that will quickly be flipped.

​i see box art up in a month and pre-orders in 2 months time.

[BrickLegacy]

We know the new MF will be released in September.  Does that mean it most likely will or won't have characters from the new movie?  Is it common for toy manufactures to release new toys with characters for a movie that hasn't been released yet?

Just trying to guess what minifigures will be in this set...OT or Ep 7.  I only have one left but if the new MF is another OT version I might dump sell it.

[Sandwraith]

Just trying to guess what minifigures will be in this set...OT or Ep 7.  I only have one left but if the new MF is another OT version I might dump sell it.

​My bets would be on EP 7 most likely.

[Val-E]

We know the new MF will be released in September.  Does that mean it most likely will or won't have characters from the new movie?  Is it common for toy manufactures to release new toys with characters for a movie that hasn't been released yet?

Just trying to guess what minifigures will be in this set...OT or Ep 7.  I only have one left but if the new MF is another OT version I might dump sell it.

​You would hope this has been agreed with Disney in their release strategy. I mean a Lego minifigure is not exactly the world´s most accurate likeness to a film character and most of them wear helmets anyway so it doesn´t hurt. Han and Chewie will probably be in the pack at any rate so no revolution there.

One would expect that in Sept. they will release another teaser trailer for the film and some stills for promo too which will help people identify with the characters.

[Locutus001]

We know the new MF will be released in September.  Does that mean it most likely will or won't have characters from the new movie?  Is it common for toy manufactures to release new toys with characters for a movie that hasn't been released yet?

Just trying to guess what minifigures will be in this set...OT or Ep 7.  I only have one left but if the new MF is another OT version I might dump sell it.

​... it's in the Episode VII LEGO Sets series... so what do you think? :-P

Also see Ant Man: LEGO before Movie...

[DFC01]

Also see Ant Man: LEGO before Movie...

Jurassic World also.

​

[fossilrock]

It's interesting watching everyone just dump their stuff over jitters and speculation.  The market is obviously not as strictly controlled by supply and demand, but jitters of "inverstors" not willing to wait.  Ahh this is like just about everything, it seems, whether it's real estate or stocks. 

Personally, I look at collectibles as something with long term strategy.  There is no doubt in my mind that this set will increase back up to 250 or higher in the near future.  It might just take holding it until 2017.  With each set that is dumped, and then opened, that's one less pristine box out in the wild.  As more sets are opened, the less sets there will be that are sealed and mint.  Over time, those that hold the sets in pristine boxes will benefit.  Just look at Indiana Jones/Harry Potter as a prime example of this.  Mint and sealed sets from these two lines go for a premium compared to used sets.  As time goes on, there are less mint boxes out there, so, this benefits the long termers willing to wait out the jitters.  I personally, think holding sets long term is the way to go.  Granted, if you stocked 20 or more of these and just made 100 on each set, then that isn't a bad strategy either.  But the people that are now "dumping theirs RIGHT NOW" are going to be caught in a mosh for the next few months, but once that phase plays out, sets that are still unopened and mint in the box will still perform well in a few more years.

Edited June 5, 2015 by fossilrock

[jerryherb]

It's interesting watching everyone just dump their stuff over jitters and speculation.  The market is obviously not as strictly controlled by supply and demand, but jitters of "inverstors" not willing to wait.  Ahh this is like just about everything, it seems, whether it's real estate or stocks. 

Personally, I look at collectibles as something with long term strategy.  There is no doubt in my mind that this set will increase back up to 250 or higher in the near future.  It might just take holding it until 2017.  With each set that is dumped, and then opened, that's one less pristine box out in the wild.  As more sets are opened, the less sets there will be that are sealed and mint.  Over time, those that hold the sets in pristine boxes will benefit.  Just look at Indiana Jones/Harry Potter as a prime example of this.  Mint and sealed sets from these two lines go for a premium compared to used sets.  As time goes on, there are less mint boxes out there, so, this benefits the long termers willing to wait out the jitters.  I personally, think holding sets long term is the way to go.  Granted, if you stocked 20 or more of these and just made 100 on each set, then that isn't a bad strategy either.  But the people that are now "dumping theirs RIGHT NOW" are going to be caught in a mosh for the next few months, but once that phase plays out, sets that are still unopened and mint in the box will still perform well in a few more years.

​they are listed at a premium, how much liquidity is there compared to 7965 sales? just because you hold onto something for 10 years and its worth 5 times the price you paid for it, it does not mean its a better investment than holding it for 1 year and doubling it.

Edited June 5, 2015 by jerryherb

[Val-E]

It´s the same as stocks or commodities. What people think may or may not happen is often more important than what actually does happen. The idea of going over the fiscal cliff is more dangerous than actually going over it.

The smart people are trying to create uncertainty and swoop in on the values that drop to sell them again when euphoria strikes.

[mscheaf]

It's interesting watching everyone just dump their stuff over jitters and speculation.  The market is obviously not as strictly controlled by supply and demand, but jitters of "inverstors" not willing to wait.  Ahh this is like just about everything, it seems, whether it's real estate or stocks.

​

Agreed.

[tacsniper]

This is interesting... I still have 3 sealed cases or 6 sets... the regular Joe consumer is not gonna knowa bout the rumor of a new MF until at least leaked images start to surface and ebayer taking pre-orders. I dont see the need to quickly dump this set yet... instead let it slowly flow into the market so we as resellers are not flooding the market

[biking_tiger]

It's interesting watching everyone just dump their stuff over jitters and speculation.  The market is obviously not as strictly controlled by supply and demand, but jitters of "inverstors" not willing to wait.  Ahh this is like just about everything, it seems, whether it's real estate or stocks. 

Personally, I look at collectibles as something with long term strategy.  There is no doubt in my mind that this set will increase back up to 250 or higher in the near future.  It might just take holding it until 2017.  With each set that is dumped, and then opened, that's one less pristine box out in the wild.  As more sets are opened, the less sets there will be that are sealed and mint.  Over time, those that hold the sets in pristine boxes will benefit.  Just look at Indiana Jones/Harry Potter as a prime example of this.  Mint and sealed sets from these two lines go for a premium compared to used sets.  As time goes on, there are less mint boxes out there, so, this benefits the long termers willing to wait out the jitters.  I personally, think holding sets long term is the way to go.  Granted, if you stocked 20 or more of these and just made 100 on each set, then that isn't a bad strategy either.  But the people that are now "dumping theirs RIGHT NOW" are going to be caught in a mosh for the next few months, but once that phase plays out, sets that are still unopened and mint in the box will still perform well in a few more years.

​Holding until 2017... what is the CAGR in that time? Yes, it matters. A big 7695 takes storage space and ties up capital. I'm not a short hold flipper at heart, but with some sets, like 7965, it makes sense to sell it before the drop. I made about 70% profit on my 7965 sales for less than 6 months in storage (I bought them last winter/fall). I sold mine before the official list of new sets was out, and must say I'm very happy with that gain. Why hold for another two years or more for only an additional modest increase? 

It all comes down to strategy, and for often rehashed sets, holding long term isn't always the best choice. 

*edited to add*

I will say this: if I hadn't already sold, I'd hold right now. No need to compete with the panic. Let the dust settle. 

Edited June 5, 2015 by biking_tiger

[fossilrock]

Well take 7190 as an example.  If you still have a mint in the box version of this, you can net anywhere between 300 to 400 for this set.  Out of the box, but still complete, you might land 180.

[biking_tiger]

Well take 7190 as an example.  If you still have a mint in the box version of this, you can net anywhere between 300 to 400 for this set.  Out of the box, but still complete, you might land 180.

​Look at 7190's sales rate. This isn't the stock market--meaning I can't simply tell my broker to sell and it's gone. 

[fossilrock]

​Holding until 2017... what is the CAGR in that time? Yes, it matters. A big 7695 takes storage space and ties up capital. I'm not a short hold flipper at heart, but with some sets, like 7965, it makes sense to sell it before the drop. I made about 70% profit on my 7965 sales for less than 6 months in storage (I bought them last winter/fall). I sold mine before the official list of new sets was out, and must say I'm very happy with that gain. Why hold for another two years or more for only an additional modest increase? 

It all comes down to strategy, and for often rehashed sets, holding long term isn't always the best choice. 

​I tend to agree with your statement, if you are one of those people that buy a LOT of the sets to flip.  I personally think having 20 of 7965 for long term is not going to be worth it, because that does take up a lot of space, and at best, you might net 150 more dollars than what you could have at the peak of the market if you wait 5 years or more.  So those that sold 18 of them at 250 really did well, and I did say that in my post. 

I personally don't play that game where I go out and buy 20 to 50 of a set.  I personally, only buy a few extras of a set, so for me, my maximum benefit is waiting a lot longer.

[Val-E]

​

This is interesting... I still have 3 sealed cases or 6 sets... the regular Joe consumer is not gonna knowa bout the rumor of a new MF until at least leaked images start to surface and ebayer taking pre-orders. I dont see the need to quickly dump this set yet... instead let it slowly flow into the market so we as resellers are not flooding the market

Well take 7190 as an example.  If you still have a mint in the box version of this, you can net anywhere between 300 to 400 for this set.  Out of the box, but still complete, you might land 180.

​

Yeah but your CAGR is much worse than selling it for slightly less 2 years ago. With 7965 the smartest tactic will probably sell final quarter for around 300-350 when SW mania goes crazy and stock hs thinned out and reinvest in the Exclusives that retire.

[fossilrock]

​Look at 7190's sales rate. This isn't the stock market--meaning I can't simply tell my broker to sell and it's gone. 

​True, but on ebay right now, there are only about 10 sets listed.  There are around 5 or so listed that are mint, but the sellers want over 700 for them.  Granted at that price, few bite on that.  They do seem to bite at the 300 to 400.00 ones, because there is some sales history with it, but they aren't put up there that often.

[biking_tiger]

Liquidity of an asset matters. That's why, as stated above, Q4 is always the best time to sell. It's also the time with highest level of supply and competition--both by sellers and other products. 

 

Edited June 5, 2015 by biking_tiger

[jerryherb]

a widget is worth nothing until its sold

[Val-E]

Liquidity of an asset matters. That's why, as stated above, Q4 is always the best time to sell. It's also the time with highest level of supply and competition--both by sellers and other products. 

 

​It´s also the time when most people buy. I have developed an unhealthy obsession with comparing new Lego listings with sold items every day and for most of the year the former outnumber the latter by a huge amount. Nov-Dec is when things change and some days there are more sales than new listings.

[Darth_Raichu]

The price drop in the past 2 days has been a very interesting spectacle.  If the rate of drop continues, we will see sub-$200 next week.  Speaking strictly in regards to eBay

[jaisonline]

The price drop in the past 2 days has been a very interesting spectacle.  If the rate of drop continues, we will see sub-$200 next week.  Speaking strictly in regards to eBay

I just sold my last one (used. No box. Some stickers not applied). $155 plus postage. Used prices should get closer to retail. It might even get below retail since many sellers purchased MISBs for $110 or less. I have no idea how low MISB boxes will go. Maybe $150-$175 depending on how good the refresh is.