Australian General LEGO Update

[Sprocket77]

6 hours ago, ED-209 said:

I can tell you, however, that over the last year my return on investment (after expenses incl fuel) has been anywhere from 15-100% but no more than 2x RRP, with an average of 40% and a lot of time put in hunting, stalking forums/blogs, packaging, listing items and kindly telling GT lowballers that my price was specifically stated as non-negotiable etc..

You've made some good points, for example I'd much rather swap some of my exo-suits for a few more Birds, but hey no point in buyers remorse.

But I think you've missed one big point and that's that you've only been doing this a year, the double RRP's are generally longer term holds. I'm heading towards a year doing this too and my numbers are very similar to yours, but I realise that some of the sets I bought straight out of the gate, like you Pet Shop, Palace Cinema etc. weren't meant to be sold anytime soon. 

[Jules_K]

18 minutes ago, Ryan Junior said:

Has anyone noticed Paypal holding their money for up to 3 weeks from sales , and asking you to supply tracking . they say they will release the money to you when they have confirmation that the sale went well . I have had it happen from 3 different buyers in the last 2 days . Paypal ask for tracking details ,and only give you a few days to supply tracking details . Some of the purchases are for $2 postage (minifigure) , which doesn't come with tracking . 

This happens if you've less than 25 sales on Paypal from memory, have you only started selling relatively recently?

[Skunk]

Rohan.46 and Jules_K, where have you seen the Slave I at Myer? It's not on their website and I've never seen it in store (Brisbane Myers).  

The Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle I ordered from Myer during their 20% off and the eBay 10% off came in great shape Gazza. 

[gazza]

as a novice to lego for the purposes of collecting/investing, i can't begin to thank you all enough for your input. you're all champions!

 

[legonk]

1 hour ago, Ryan Junior said:

Has anyone noticed Paypal holding their money for up to 3 weeks from sales , and asking you to supply tracking . they say they will release the money to you when they have confirmation that the sale went well . I have had it happen from 3 different buyers in the last 2 days . Paypal ask for tracking details ,and only give you a few days to supply tracking details . Some of the purchases are for $2 postage (minifigure) , which doesn't come with tracking . 

I had the same problem with minifigs. Try going to the tracking entry and just mark as shipped, the tracking data is optional. Worked for me and cut a week off the wait for funds.

[Skunk]

Another question, does the Australian SaH Lego store ever get nice discounts like the US has at the moment? I've only seen discounts on accessories. 

[whoisbiggles]

No I haven't noticed this. Is this on ebay transactions?

[legonk]

On 24 February 2016 at 0:21 PM, whoisbiggles said:

No I haven't noticed this. Is this on ebay transactions?

No, on PayPal. I find when I put the tracking information there first it shows on ebay afterwards without me doing anything. I only use parcel post so it may not work for other services.

Ah, you weren't talking to me. nvm.

Selective sets 10-20% off at toysrus. Don't know how long it will last though, they are mainly new releases.

Edited February 25, 2016 by legonk

[Steigen86]

On 2/23/2016 at 6:33 PM, Ryan Junior said:

Has anyone noticed Paypal holding their money for up to 3 weeks from sales , and asking you to supply tracking . they say they will release the money to you when they have confirmation that the sale went well . I have had it happen from 3 different buyers in the last 2 days . Paypal ask for tracking details ,and only give you a few days to supply tracking details . Some of the purchases are for $2 postage (minifigure) , which doesn't come with tracking . 

I have recently sold two lots on eBay, one was Lego and the other was not.  Both were paid for via PayPal. The auction that wasn't Lego cleared straight away, whereas the auction that was Lego is being held with the approximate date of funds being released the 13th of March. WTF??

[Ryan Junior]

I did not aggree to allow paypal to hold my funds for 3 weeks. And  how are buyers are getting paypal to do this? It may be that paypal is sick of refunding buyers due to scammers with lego. Or it may be that it profits paypal to use our money for the three weeks (to gain interest on it or something) . Another gripe that I have with paypal, is why does it take so long for them to send money to our bank accounts . ( 3-5 days)  I send money to my account from Paypal on a Friday , and sometimes it is not there till Wed. And the cycle happens every week .  

[firos]

I recently started selling on ebay and had the same paypal restrictions. First sell was on Feb 3rd and got the funds unlocked yesterday. That sell was marked as received by the buyer with positive feedback. Today paypal unlocked the funds from a sell dated Fed 5th and that sale isn't yet marked as received neither has feedback.

All sells were Lego minifigs.

[ED-209]

On 23/2/2016 at 5:49 PM, Sprocket77 said:

You've made some good points, for example I'd much rather swap some of my exo-suits for a few more Birds, but hey no point in buyers remorse.

But I think you've missed one big point and that's that you've only been doing this a year, the double RRP's are generally longer term holds. I'm heading towards a year doing this too and my numbers are very similar to yours, but I realise that some of the sets I bought straight out of the gate, like you Pet Shop, Palace Cinema etc. weren't meant to be sold anytime soon. 

Yes, you are right. In the long term, there are likely to be good gains. Just gotta hold on that bit longer.

My post was a bit of a 'train of thought' monologue. I have only been collecting since last Jan, so 40% after expenses in the first year is pretty good, and most of my sets are still on ice. I try to avoid any flipping for small gains as I'm in it for the long haul.

It does take time for reseller stock to be cleared out before real EOL gains can be made. Some sets like Raptor Escape went nuts straight away, and Ant Man has also gone quite well. When the new Cap Am film comes out, they'll be sweet. It's already almost doubled in Aus.  Haunted House and Town Hall were, in my opinion, the last 'white whale' sets. Grand Emporium is actually going for less than double RRP if you factor in ebay fees etc and there are still a good number of sellers. Pet Shop and Palace Cinema will see even lower returns if and when they retire, but after a few years they may still turn to gold. How many years that will take is anyone's guess. It took gold prices 5 years to triple in value from 2006-2011, so I doubt Lego is a better investment but long term is the word IMO. 

 

Edited February 27, 2016 by ED-209

[Alucard1982]

On 25 February 2016 at 9:46 PM, Ryan Junior said:

I did not aggree to allow paypal to hold my funds for 3 weeks. And  how are buyers are getting paypal to do this? It may be that paypal is sick of refunding buyers due to scammers with lego. Or it may be that it profits paypal to use our money for the three weeks (to gain interest on it or something) . Another gripe that I have with paypal, is why does it take so long for them to send money to our bank accounts . ( 3-5 days)  I send money to my account from Paypal on a Friday , and sometimes it is not there till Wed. And the cycle happens every week .  

You quite possibly did agree to it in their T&Cs. Give them a call and they will most likely point you to the direct line.

If it is taking your funds that long to clear maybe look at switching banks, I use ING Direct. I normally have the funds in my account at 8pm provided I transfer them before 2pm and on a business day.

Edited February 27, 2016 by Alucard1982

[Alucard1982]

On 23 February 2016 at 0:31 PM, ED-209 said:

 

 

Some interesting info and no doubt some useful advice for Gazza. I've only been doing this for a year now and I'm pretty small fry but I am fairly business savvy (in addition to loving lego) and in my short experience Ive learned some lessons which I'd like to share.

I did get some Dr Who sets from Myer during the sale and I was shocked at the speed at which they were gobbled up. Furthermore, on Facebook I see more and more (ad nauseum) lego fans posting "to build or store away?" (insert Iron Man eye roll here). I feel like to my mind sometimes I'm going from bull to bear in the course of one day. It's strange times indeed. A race to the bottom perhaps?

Ideas and modulars are way too hoarded, and, while I believe that money will be made on them, I don't believe that 100% ROI will be achievable. Alucard has addressed this topic a few months ago and, while initially skeptical with beer-goggles on, now I believe him to be right. The days of doubling in value will not apply to these IMO. 12 month cycle? You can maybe tell that to my one Birds set, but not my 11 Ectos (which used to be a higher number before I liquidated a few at Xmas).  Dr Who is almost literally flying off the shelves, so why would TLG pull the plug on it? Perhaps they got a 4 year licence for it? I've never ever known of a company that makes such strange business decisions as TLG so WTF knows. Maybe the Delorian has tripled in value, but what about the Exo suit or Research institute? They've made money, but they are really small sets and you would have to sell a few to make any decent coin.

At the beginning of last year, my targets were Palace Cinema, Pet Shop and Ecto. All are still collecting dust. There's a lesson to be learned there.

Dark Years has a point about international resellers. It is a real phenomenon that's a perverse form of globalisation as well as being a massive waste of fossil fuels. However, 11th hour purchases at retail price for just-retired sets has worked well for me. You need to do some legwork though. Even those sets haven't doubled in price yet but we'll see how they go. New listings seem to appear frequently even for highly-prized sets that were retired after less than a year. I can see many sets plateauing indefinitely.

My biggest wins have been smaller sets which have flown under the radar and most of which do not have their own thread on this forum. I won't say what they are because at this stage in the investing game I reckon it's better to use the info you have and keep your cards close to your chest. I can tell you, however, that over the last year my return on investment (after expenses incl fuel) has been anywhere from 15-100% but no more than 2x RRP, with an average of 40% and a lot of time put in hunting, stalking forums/blogs, packaging, listing items and kindly telling GT lowballers that my price was specifically stated as non-negotiable etc...

 

 

Of course I'm right, i'm always right

Edited February 27, 2016 by Alucard1982

[Alucard1982]

On 23 February 2016 at 0:31 PM, ED-209 said:

 

 

Some interesting info and no doubt some useful advice for Gazza. I've only been doing this for a year now and I'm pretty small fry but I am fairly business savvy (in addition to loving lego) and in my short experience Ive learned some lessons which I'd like to share.

I did get some Dr Who sets from Myer during the sale and I was shocked at the speed at which they were gobbled up. Furthermore, on Facebook I see more and more (ad nauseum) lego fans posting "to build or store away?" (insert Iron Man eye roll here). I feel like to my mind sometimes I'm going from bull to bear in the course of one day. It's strange times indeed. A race to the bottom perhaps?

Ideas and modulars are way too hoarded, and, while I believe that money will be made on them, I don't believe that 100% ROI will be achievable. Alucard has addressed this topic a few months ago and, while initially skeptical with beer-goggles on, now I believe him to be right. The days of doubling in value will not apply to these IMO. 12 month cycle? You can maybe tell that to my one Birds set, but not my 11 Ectos (which used to be a higher number before I liquidated a few at Xmas).  Dr Who is almost literally flying off the shelves, so why would TLG pull the plug on it? Perhaps they got a 4 year licence for it? I've never ever known of a company that makes such strange business decisions as TLG so WTF knows. Maybe the Delorian has tripled in value, but what about the Exo suit or Research institute? They've made money, but they are really small sets and you would have to sell a few to make any decent coin.

At the beginning of last year, my targets were Palace Cinema, Pet Shop and Ecto. All are still collecting dust. There's a lesson to be learned there.

Dark Years has a point about international resellers. It is a real phenomenon that's a perverse form of globalisation as well as being a massive waste of fossil fuels. However, 11th hour purchases at retail price for just-retired sets has worked well for me. You need to do some legwork though. Even those sets haven't doubled in price yet but we'll see how they go. New listings seem to appear frequently even for highly-prized sets that were retired after less than a year. I can see many sets plateauing indefinitely.

My biggest wins have been smaller sets which have flown under the radar and most of which do not have their own thread on this forum. I won't say what they are because at this stage in the investing game I reckon it's better to use the info you have and keep your cards close to your chest. I can tell you, however, that over the last year my return on investment (after expenses incl fuel) has been anywhere from 15-100% but no more than 2x RRP, with an average of 40% and a lot of time put in hunting, stalking forums/blogs, packaging, listing items and kindly telling GT lowballers that my price was specifically stated as non-negotiable etc...

 

 

I just want to further touch on a vital point that ED has made in that LEGO investing is heading towards a bear market. I like to use Kenny Rodger's The Gambler as an analogy to LEGO investing and from the signs and the writing on the wall I think that we are at, or at least getting close to the "...know when to walk away, know when to run". Whilst I warmly welcome you to the fold Gazza, I think your arrival couldn't have been at a worse time.

Whilst I welcome a plethora of new people to the game around this time every year, fast forward a couple of months and a vast majority of them fade into obscurity, never seen or heard from again. However, signs have been appearing that have me slightly worried about any future prospect or viable return in investing short/long term. Facebook, as ED has eluded to has seen a significant increase in (clueless) investors and for those with a keen eye a lot of major players on the BSS pages are dumping their stock. While this maybe the time of the year to offload inventory to payoff credit cards, take a holiday, etc; it is quite heavy compared to the inventory "dumping" that occurred this time last year.

Another is the constant refresh of highly collectable items (I used items for a reason) that have retired, this is evident in the Winter Toy Shop, Bumble Bee & Hot Dog Keychains, and now the Chicken costumed CMF. Whilst it is widely known that LEGO refresh/rehash their sets every few years, a big one being the City theme, however this is starting to spill out into other theme, possibly negating any returns for a longterm hold strategy.

Where does this thought process stem from - Is it a result of LEGO being lazy? A combat measure against resellers? Cyclic Market? 

While others firmly believe that LEGO is gunning for the investors, I personally think its a little of column A and a little of column C. From a personal viewpoint, I think LEGO has fallen victim to its ego, believing that consumers will purchase anything and everything from them regardless of quality due to the fact they are the biggest Toy maker in the world. This is evident by themes such as Chima, Ultra Agents and now Nexo Knights, whilst these themes appeal to a certain market - my point is evident by what is left after a sale/christmas rush in the LEGO isle.

Another sign would be the increase in the LEGO currency that is more valuable than gold, well it is, if tabloids are to be believed. We all know where I am going with this point, so I'll leave it there.

Anywho, happy to welcome all the new members, I can't stress enough - DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Those with experience are more often than not willing to provide guidance and help out with potential winners/losers - but we will not assist those who simply come on here without doing the regulatory reading and ask "What should I buy for max $$$".

- J

 

[Ryan Junior]

1 hour ago, Alucard1982 said:

I just want to further touch on a vital point that ED has made in that LEGO investing is heading towards a bear market. I like to use Kenny Rodger's The Gambler as an analogy to LEGO investing and from the signs and the writing on the wall I think that we are at, or at least getting close to the "...know when to walk away, know when to run". Whilst I warmly welcome you to the fold Gazza, I think your arrival couldn't have been at a worse time.

Whilst I welcome a plethora of new people to the game around this time every year, fast forward a couple of months and a vast majority of them fade into obscurity, never seen or heard from again. However, signs have been appearing that have me slightly worried about any future prospect or viable return in investing short/long term. Facebook, as ED has eluded to has seen a significant increase in (clueless) investors and for those with a keen eye a lot of major players on the BSS pages are dumping their stock. While this maybe the time of the year to offload inventory to payoff credit cards, take a holiday, etc; it is quite heavy compared to the inventory "dumping" that occurred this time last year.

Another is the constant refresh of highly collectable items (I used items for a reason) that have retired, this is evident in the Winter Toy Shop, Bumble Bee & Hot Dog Keychains, and now the Chicken costumed CMF. Whilst it is widely known that LEGO refresh/rehash their sets every few years, a big one being the City theme, however this is starting to spill out into other theme, possibly negating any returns for a longterm hold strategy.

Where does this thought process stem from - Is it a result of LEGO being lazy? A combat measure against resellers? Cyclic Market? 

While others firmly believe that LEGO is gunning for the investors, I personally think its a little of column A and a little of column C. From a personal viewpoint, I think LEGO has fallen victim to its ego, believing that consumers will purchase anything and everything from them regardless of quality due to the fact they are the biggest Toy maker in the world. This is evident by themes such as Chima, Ultra Agents and now Nexo Knights, whilst these themes appeal to a certain market - my point is evident by what is left after a sale/christmas rush in the LEGO isle.

Another sign would be the increase in the LEGO currency that is more valuable than gold, well it is, if tabloids are to be believed. We all know where I am going with this point, so I'll leave it there.

Anywho, happy to welcome all the new members, I can't stress enough - DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Those with experience are more often than not willing to provide guidance and help out with potential winners/losers - but we will not assist those who simply come on here without doing the regulatory reading and ask "What should I buy for max $$$".

- J

 

I agree with Alucard1982.  We have been doing this for 8 years.. And are right at the cross roads of deciding if this is still worth doing. I definitely think there is still money to be made with selling lego , but it is not easy to make money selling lego, and there is more risk involved now.  It requires a lot of research and strategy. Timing has a lot to do with it. And like Alucard1982 has said, there are so many people dumping their stock (me included) . (It is the big players and the little players dumping their stock.) .And it is hard to compete with stock being sold below retail. It also has gotten buyers on the  BSS pages used to getting bargains. And in turn demanding them, and refusing to pay what we think are "Reasonable Prices" .  I will probably still sell lego , but I will be much more strategic, and lower volume . You just have to stay a few steps ahead of the bulk of the competition. And any of you who have been doing this for a while , will already know how to do that. Any new to the game will have to learn fast. Probably a good idea is to start out slow.  See if you can actually make money selling lego , before buying too much. 

[gazza]

thanks, gang

i'm not one to fade in obscurity so rest assured, i won't be! 

as i said in an earlier post, i've been doing my homework for some time but have just happened to start buying.

while a novice to lego collecting/investing, i'm certainly not a novice with respect to investing generally. 

we all have to start buying sometime, irrespective if it was 10 years ago or a month ago.

personally, i see myself more as a collector. i just like knowing that i have the sets that i've purchased.

yes, it's an expensive hobby but it beats going out every weekend hitting the turps and generally wasting money imo.

the minute it stops becoming fun is the minute when you have to question yourself and your motives.

 

 

 

[ED-209]

I'd say dumping stock might have something to do with job losses and the fact that the economy is going down the tube and people need money. They may well be liquidating because they need cash to pay down debts, which are the Achilles heel of this country's economy. I read somewhere that 50% of Aussies don't even know how much interest they are paying in their credit cards. It is also a slow time of the year. Are we in a bear market I don't know but bear markets can be a good thing as the less competitive players will get flushed out.

I reckon anyone with experience selling City or Star Wars knows that reissues/new models are part of the game and timing is everything. This isn't new. I do agree that Lego is dropping the ball, with lower quality such as cracked bricks in sets, the cheaper feel of CMFs (that are Chinese made) and obvious cash cow/ money grab crap coming out this year. TLG is a weird beast and IMO as far as investors go, I think that they are not trying to destroy them, but more so manage them. The re release of the Chicken guy will help calm down people who are unhappy about paying high prices for a single figure. Not sure if you've all noticed you get 5 shark guys in a box, whereas older suit figs were rarer. However, I don't think they will do anything crazy like re release 10179 but then again who knows. One thing that Lego must know is that resellers are a necessary evil and they are a big source of revenue for them. It's not the 80s and 90s anymore where the market was kids and parents.

As far as BSS goes, I no longer sell there as I can't and/or won't compete. I've heard of people stealing sets and others getting 20% off for sets, plus another 20% through store connection cronyism. Whatever it is, it seems like it has reached saturation point. eBay is where I sell most stuff.

I'd say if you find it fun go for it Gazza. You can make some good returns but at the end of the day that's what this realistically is. It's not an easy investment and despite what some might say you won't get rich from it. The logistics are too much. If I were rich, I'd consider equities, property or commodities or EFTs, as they require much less physical maintenance. Property, like lego is not liquid, but if you manage to make money flipping a property it's akin to selling one big lego set, rather then selling a thousand of them. FWIW, I'm bearish on the Aus property market, but that's another story.

[whoisbiggles]

21 hours ago, Alucard1982 said:

Another is the constant refresh of highly collectable items (I used items for a reason) that have retired, this is evident in the Winter Toy Shop, Bumble Bee & Hot Dog Keychains, and now the Chicken costumed CMF. Whilst it is widely known that LEGO refresh/rehash their sets every few years, a big one being the City theme, however this is starting to spill out into other theme, possibly negating any returns for a longterm hold strategy.

Where does this thought process stem from - Is it a result of LEGO being lazy? A combat measure against resellers? Cyclic Market?

While others firmly believe that LEGO is gunning for the investors, I personally think its a little of column A and a little of column C. From a personal viewpoint, I think LEGO has fallen victim to its ego, believing that consumers will purchase anything and everything from them regardless of quality due to the fact they are the biggest Toy maker in the world. This is evident by themes such as Chima, Ultra Agents and now Nexo Knights, whilst these themes appeal to a certain market - my point is evident by what is left after a sale/christmas rush in the LEGO isle.

Another sign would be the increase in the LEGO currency that is more valuable than gold, well it is, if tabloids are to be believed. We all know where I am going with this point, so I'll leave it there.

Anywho, happy to welcome all the new members, I can't stress enough - DO YOUR HOMEWORK. Those with experience are more often than not willing to provide guidance and help out with potential winners/losers - but we will not assist those who simply come on here without doing the regulatory reading and ask "What should I buy for max $$$".

- J

 

To add my 2 cents.

If you are collecting and looking to resell Marvel sets, are you aware that there are some 10+ movies slated for release between now and 2019. I believe that kids demand for the associated Lego sets to be high. But how many new and original minifigures, etc can Lego realistically design. Each new movie gets 4-8 new sets plus a couple of polybags.

How many kids care what version of iron man they have as long as they have one?

So who is your market for the sets you are investing in?

I expect there to be quite a few reissues of minifigures in the Marvel line over the coming years, and more than a few lazy novice resellers getting their fingers burnt.

[Skunk]

I think my posts above got lost in the newbie approval process so I'll try again and expand. 

Does the Australian LEGO Shop at Home store ever have decent sale discounts (not including 2x VIP) and what kind of O/S fee are people paying on their purchases? I'm paying 3% on my ANZ visa :-(

[Lachy]

In regards to the 3% I would dispute those fees with your bank. I had a long lasting argument with Westpac about this. If the invoice is presented in AUD and your card is AUD there is no argument for a fee. I initiated charge backs every single time I got hit with the fee and got it reimbursed. I am now with Bankwest and they are not charging this fee.

In regards to the decent sales I would tend to say 'no'. Last discount I remember worth buying was Exo Suit for $35. But other members may not share this view.

 

[Skunk]

Wow that's great @Lachy I'll give it a shot. It's a bit dodgy on TLGs behalf since you browse the site in AUD and its only right at the end they put the warning up. 

[Lachy]

I probably had something to do with the warning as well. It was not there when I initiated the charge backs. I work in the payments industry and this fee is dodgy as. There is no currency conversion taking place and as such the banks are making up this fee. It is not TLGs fault.

[Skunk]

Yeah I don't think I've ever see it before when a transaction is all in the same currency. The credit card statement says 'overseas transaction fee' (and the amount in the description).  It's the Financial ombudsman that deals with these types of disputes isn't it. Just want to be prepared when the bank tries to fob me off. 

[gazza]

2 hours ago, Skunk said:

Yeah I don't think I've ever see it before when a transaction is all in the same currency. The credit card statement says 'overseas transaction fee' (and the amount in the description).  It's the Financial ombudsman that deals with these types of disputes isn't it. Just want to be prepared when the bank tries to fob me off. 

Correct re FOS.

You'll have to go through your FSPs Internal Dispute Resolution process first though.

How do I know this? I used to work at FOS