Australian General LEGO Update

[Alucard1982]

But other than that the Christmas stash is getting quite healthy, just picked up another 2 UA $20 sets.

[AFFOL]

I would not let them have it lego shop at home prices....I would say they are entitled to a 50% price bonus.

Someone tell me, I tried to quote Alucard and it posted my comment as if it was the original quote...what went wrong!

But other than that the Christmas stash is getting quite healthy, just picked up another 2 UA $20 sets.

How do you find all this with study? I am already in panic mode, hence the absence of comments on the forum.

[Alucard1982]

Someone tell me, I tried to quote Alucard and it posted my comment as if it was the original quote...what went wrong!

 

How do you find all this with study? I am already in panic mode, hence the absence of comments on the forum.

I'm able to multi-task!  

But seriously, I'm paid full time through my employer to study, so If I have a great deal of spare time to invest into my "hobby". A lot of my courses this year revolves around my investment strategy and I have access to lecturers that are more than willing to listen to my thoughts and theories. By doing this, I believe that my strategy has strengthened and hopefully it should pay off in the mid-term. So win-win on that side

What I do find that irks me with regards to eBay and the BSS pages is the lack of understanding of equilibrium pricing. The amount of consumer surplus floating around at the moment is crazy, I'm hoping now that we are nearing the silly season, it holds up.

 

[TheDarkness]

It definitely is like that. You see people flooding the pages when others are there. Particularly on the main BSS page you make have nearly 10k people there but how many people are actually buying?
And if you look the main people buying alot of the time are those trying to make money further down the line with it. 

[ED-209]

Luc and Darkness, I guess you guys have been around the block a few more times than me as I'm still new to this. My strategy is pretty simple; buy at a discount, hold (or flip) and sell when there is adequate profits to make. I calculate all expenses like fees, fuel for the car as well as packing and postage onto this equation.

Eq pricing and consumer surplus are terms that I only have a vague understanding of. As far as I know, equilibrium pricing is where price meets demand. Luc, are you trying to say that people don't know what the going rates for sets are and are dreamers, or are you saying that supply is exceeding demand (ie; too many hoarders), or something else?

I haven't noticed who buys what on BSS, but I'm sure there are plenty of sales that go to end users. Is it possible that people who are buying 100 buck 21103s or 500 buck HHs are resellers themselves? I understand if someone sells something at sale price because their investment strategy didn't work out (or whatever reason) and that these sets are bought by resellers.

If EOL sets which have already doubled in value are being bought by resellers, then there is a bigger Aussie lego bubble/ponzi than I thought.

 

[Alucard1982]

I'll jump onager and give you a run down. Consumer surplus is when a consumer purchases an item @ X and is prepared to pay "Y" for it. For example, I have a $100 set aside for a Winter Solider Poly, but I find one at $30, my consumer surplus would be $70. By undercutting and the tactics used on the BSS page it brings the equilibrium down (your right, ideal price & ideal demand meet) and creates an artificially low market. This is why Lego doesn't put the exclusives on sale in the U.S.

[Alucard1982]

I don't know what onager is, but it was supposed to be "I'll jump on later"

[Alucard1982]

I don't like the mobile app, I won't let me do spacings

[ED-209]

 no worries,  I hate the mobile browser,  extremely frustrating... 

[TheDarkness]

Luc and Darkness, I guess you guys have been around the block a few more times than me as I'm still new to this. My strategy is pretty simple; buy at a discount, hold (or flip) and sell when there is adequate profits to make. I calculate all expenses like fees, fuel for the car as well as packing and postage onto this equation.

Eq pricing and consumer surplus are terms that I only have a vague understanding of. As far as I know, equilibrium pricing is where price meets demand. Luc, are you trying to say that people don't know what the going rates for sets are and are dreamers, or are you saying that supply is exceeding demand (ie; too many hoarders), or something else?

I haven't noticed who buys what on BSS, but I'm sure there are plenty of sales that go to end users. Is it possible that people who are buying 100 buck 21103s or 500 buck HHs are resellers themselves? I understand if someone sells something at sale price because their investment strategy didn't work out (or whatever reason) and that these sets are bought by resellers.

If EOL sets which have already doubled in value are being bought by resellers, then there is a bigger Aussie lego bubble/ponzi than I thought.

 

The thing is there will always be investors buying from investors. You have people happy to offload due to reaching their targeted ROI, whilst having others hoping to capitalise on possible future profits. Example being the Haunted House. I know people who scored them for the $120 price from K-Mart and have offloaded them recently for $500. That was what they wanted out of it and moved onto the next thing.  I know people buying them for $500 expecting them to hit $1000. So it all depends on your strategy. You will always find people though buying from investors solely to reinvest in this hobby. People getting out of the market a few years ago selling Market Steet new for $500 could possibly be kicking themselves but which one of us would say you wouldn't buy it now for $500 without a second thought? It is why people are buying up Haunted Houses. 

Bss tends to lean itself towards end users. Your more sought after items like modulars tend to move fast and can be score by investors or end users, whereas some of the other stuff is pretty much useless to investors. Again though it all comes down to the mindset of the investor. I have seen one person buying up every high end collectible minifig on the site and now selling them via PM without announcing her costs. I have seen one guy try and accumulate every SSD (used or new) that shows up. 

[ED-209]

Thx for the input I wouldn't be kicking myself if I had sold Market Street at 500, as I still would've doubled money and moved on to the next purchase.  Sure, I could've made a lot more on it,  but that ROI  is what I would consider pretty good. I personally buy at or below retail as i see it less of a gamble than expecting to achieve 3- 4x RRP on an already appreciated eol set.

I guess the strategy might still work. Perhaps it's a more advanced type of investing than I do. You would still have to wait for value to go up, with the space constraints that go with it. I'd say it's more risky as prices can, and do plateau sooner or later.

Edited August 8, 2015 by ED-209

[slobey]

Sooo the Target sale ends today, anyone stock up on the Ewok Villages, TIE or Tumbler?

[slobey]

Sooo the Target sale ends today, anyone stock up on the Ewok Villages, TIE or Tumbler?

[TheDarkness]

Thx for the input I wouldn't be kicking myself if I had sold Market Street at 500, as I still would've doubled money and moved on to the next purchase.  Sure, I could've made a lot more on it,  but that ROI  is what I would consider pretty good. I personally buy at or below retail as i see it less of a gamble than expecting to achieve 3- 4x RRP on an already appreciated eol set.

I guess the strategy might still work. Perhaps it's a more advanced type of investing than I do. You would still have to wait for value to go up, with the space constraints that go with it. I'd say it's more risky as prices can, and do plateau sooner or later.

I haven't lost money on a single set but I have sold a bunch of Star Wars and Technic way too early for being impatient. So some harsh lessons along the way. There is always the risk of seeing sets plateau when paying above RRP. I have only done it twice and those were for sets aimed to go into my personal collection. Then they jumped in price and I sold them. I bought some sets a couple of years ago pretty much at 75% off. Whilst others ridicule certain themes when they jump even back to retail it's all gravy. I'm seeing a surge in Toy Story interest lately. It's funny because on this site it was considered a dud theme. I wish I had bought more when Big W were clearing them out instead of just for my sons collection

[TheDarkness]

Sooo the Target sale ends today, anyone stock up on the Ewok Villages, TIE or Tumbler?

I bought a couple of TIEs and EV but no Tumbler. The discount wasn't worth it when you pretty much get that goodies from LEGO Shop at Home

[Alucard1982]

I haven't lost money on a single set but I have sold a bunch of Star Wars and Technic way too early for being impatient. So some harsh lessons along the way. There is always the risk of seeing sets plateau when paying above RRP. I have only done it twice and those were for sets aimed to go into my personal collection. Then they jumped in price and I sold them. I bought some sets a couple of years ago pretty much at 75% off. Whilst others ridicule certain themes when they jump even back to retail it's all gravy. I'm seeing a surge in Toy Story interest lately. It's funny because on this site it was considered a dud theme. I wish I had bought more when Big W were clearing them out instead of just for my sons collection

Also been on the too early train...damn you HH! I'm also seeing a lack of patience from a lot of new investors, having said that, I'm not sure if it's patience, lack of strategy or purpose in life. Purchasing anything at 75% would be a low risk investment in my book, I recently grabbed 16 Hurricane Heists @ $20ea (RRP $90). If they "appreciate" to RRP I'll be ecstatic :)

[TheDarkness]

Also been on the too early train...damn you HH! I'm also seeing a lack of patience from a lot of new investors, having said that, I'm not sure if it's patience, lack of strategy or purpose in life. Purchasing anything at 75% would be a low risk investment in my book, I recently grabbed 16 Hurricane Heists @ $20ea (RRP $90). If they "appreciate" to RRP I'll be ecstatic

I think it is impatience, not knowing the markets and expecting immediate boom returns
I have left the Hurricane Heists alone for now, as I am focusing on getting quota for a few sets that may be near their end. To me $20 is a very low point and at worst they are easy to give to kids for presents. I have grown impatient with some Ninjago and Chima I scored cheap, solely because of the room it occupies and wanting to free some capital. Considering I bought those at something like 60% off it isn't a big deal as it is more about keeping some cash flow circulating and freeing up a bit of space. My LOTR sets I am more than happy just to let sit there now the entire theme has gone (but I didn't get enough Orthancs  )

[Out of the Dark Years]

Guess most or at least some of you have heard the news about all overseas sales getting taxed 10% from 1st July 2017. 

 

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/all-goods-bought-overseas-to-incur-10pc-gst-20150820-gj4ams

 

this will surely affect all us Lego hobbyists and investors, the extra cost will probably make it not worthwhile to order most things from overseas anymore. 

Edited August 22, 2015 by Out of the Dark Years

[Jules_K]

Guess most or at least some of you have heard the news about all overseas sales getting taxed 10% from 1st July 2017. 

 

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/all-goods-bought-overseas-to-incur-10pc-gst-20150820-gj4ams

 

this will surely affect all us Lego hobbyists and investors, the extra cost will probably make it not worthwhile to order most things from overseas anymore. 

I really don't understand how this is going to be implemented / policed? Every single delivery entering Australia will need to be monitored and the sender will need to complete paperwork declaring the value of the item? Seems like an absolute logistical nightmare.

And yet another reason the current Government is the worst ever (but let's not get into that!).

[ED-209]

Guess most or at least some of you have heard the news about all overseas sales getting taxed 10% from 1st July 2017. 

 

http://www.afr.com/news/politics/all-goods-bought-overseas-to-incur-10pc-gst-20150820-gj4ams

 

this will surely affect all us Lego hobbyists and investors, the extra cost will probably make it not worthwhile to order most things from overseas anymore. 

LEGO Shop at Home will become no longer so viable I guess.

[Alucard1982]

I really don't understand how this is going to be implemented / policed? Every single delivery entering Australia will need to be monitored and the sender will need to complete paperwork declaring the value of the item? Seems like an absolute logistical nightmare.

And yet another reason the current Government is the worst ever (but let's not get into that!).

Tony Abbot like Dorothy Mantooth is a Saint

I think they are relying on the fact that the online vendors will apply the 10% component at POS.

Tony Abbot like Dorothy Mantooth is a Saint

I think they are relying on the fact that the online vendors will apply the 10% component at POS.

Further to my last, you will probably find that it will be offset against a new range of "postal concessions" that will be offered by the vendors in an effort to bring back our market -Amazon, etc

LEGO Shop at Home will become no longer so viable I guess.

LEGO Shop at Home already adds the GST component to the order anyway. Trust me, I know

[Jules_K]

 

Tony Abbot like Dorothy Mantooth is a Saint

 

I think they are relying on the fact that the online vendors will apply the 10% component at POS.

That appears to be the plan, not sure exactly how that would work when buying from Ebay overseas, Bricklink or other small sellers.

To be honest I'm skeptical this will get passed in parliament (assuming that's how the changes will be made), and there's a good change we'll have a change in Government by the time they get around to putting together the bill on this.

"Mr Hockey said tax officials will "travel around the world" visiting companies with turnovers in Australia of greater than $75,000 to ensure they collect and forward to the government GST."

I can't even begin to imagine how many companies that would be,, looks like there will be a lot of travelling involved!
 

[Out of the Dark Years]

And what about International Bricklink sellers?

I order parts for my own builds and try to get from Australian sellers when possible but most of the time there just isn't the quantity available here or the price is ridiculous.

 

[Ryan Junior]

You may have to pay tax on it , before they release your parcel, when it enters Australia . That's why people from other countries ask you to tick that you are sending it as a gift. I don't really know what I am talking about here . But that is what I think will happen. 

[Alucard1982]

That appears to be the plan, not sure exactly how that would work when buying from Ebay overseas, Bricklink or other small sellers.

To be honest I'm skeptical this will get passed in parliament (assuming that's how the changes will be made), and there's a good change we'll have a change in Government by the time they get around to putting together the bill on this.

"Mr Hockey said tax officials will "travel around the world" visiting companies with turnovers in Australia of greater than $75,000 to ensure they collect and forward to the government GST."

I can't even begin to imagine how many companies that would be,, looks like there will be a lot of travelling involved!
 

Government is all smoke and mirrors, it will get pushed through due to the "pressure" placed on the government from the states. Regardless of who is in government, the senate will pass it as the blame will be directed towards the states (they receive all GST revenue).