10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van

[Crustybeaver]

I don't want to be a buzzkill on sets that have been out forever like the T1, but you gotta wonder what the demand would be for something that has been widely available for so long.

There will ALWAYS be serious demand for this set. Feel free to quote me on this at any point once retired.

[nolanfan34]

There will ALWAYS be serious demand for this set. Feel free to quote me on this at any point once retired.

 

And the same argument was used for Fire Brigade and many others. With the rising price of exclusives, this one is going to seem like a deal in hindsight IMO.

[CNH1974]

If this set is so over produced and so over hoarded, why are the prices at RRP or RRP +10-20% ?

The set may perform like the FB. So it will double in price in 3 months, then hold for approx 6-9 months, then start to rise. Not exactly bad.

[biniou]

The set may perform like the FB. So it will double in price in 3 months

The T1, double in 3 months ? Quite optimistic IMHO.

[Frank Brickowski]

The T1, double in 3 months ? Quite optimistic IMHO.

 

Generally Europeans seem to have to substract around 20-30% from numbers concerning profit for virtually all sets - be it future growth or ebay prices at the moment. Gains in Europe are just not as big/fast as in the US. This is at least what I concluded from searching for actual EU auction prices compared to the numbers on Brickpicker database or stated in forum discussions. Question is: Is the slower ("more normal"?) EU growth due to a lesser interest in LEGO or due to a smaller number of resellers (not) hyping up the post-EOL prices? (Or is it something else?)

[Val-E]

Yeah, you are right that here growth is usually more gradual - see Sopwith Camel as a prime example.

 

I guess the number of resellers is one controlling factor and maybe another is socio economic in that there are also less people with such disposable income willing to spend it on lego.

 

It seems that after a year or two post EOL numbers eventually converge.

[stuturners]

There was one of these for sale in Toyrus today, pretty shocked as I didn't think they stocked them?

[Yinchuan]

There was one of these for sale in Toyrus today, pretty shocked as I didn't think they stocked them?

They appear to be pretty wide-spread...including car dealerships apparently!

[stuturners]

Here in the UK they are exclusive to Lego.com and John Lewis, they have never been available at Toyrus as far as I know.  Hence being a bit shocked.

[10230]

Generally Europeans seem to have to substract around 20-30% from numbers concerning profit for virtually all sets - be it future growth or ebay prices at the moment.a

Tax in Europe is usually in the >20% range, which might have something to do with it. Seen "from the US" you might not see the tax that Europeans always see as part of the final price (unlike in the US).

[holleman67]

This set won't die, cashing out.

Sent from my HTC6525LVW using Brickpicker mobile app

[baldilocks]

Holleman I just pmed you

Edited April 2, 2015 by baldilocks

[CNH1974]

A London lego store had about 15 on the shelf yesterday.

It's still going strong.

[Yinchuan]

I still subscribe to my own theory that a new auto model this summer will ultimately signal the end of this set. My guess is the final run on these will be during October VIP. Again just my theory.

[exciter1]

I still subscribe to my own theory that a new auto model this summer will ultimately signal the end of this set. My guess is the final run on these will be during October VIP. Again just my theory.

 

What did the Mini-Cooper replace?

[baldilocks]

Hopes and dreams of T1 money

[Val-E]

All this "can

[exciter1]

I think they need a license w/ National Lampoon.  I need a LEGO family truckster.

 

[Yinchuan]

All this "can

[bricketycricket]

The T1 isn

[Yinchuan]

This is a ridiculous extrapolation of what was said. He's just saying that he thinks there may be a limit on how many advanced model sets based on consumer vehicles Lego sells at a time, and even qualified it as his own "theory". Only time will tell but it's not the absurd premise you're making it out to be.

Thank you. This is exactly what I am saying. Number of models from same product line. And personal theory means just that and nothing more.

[Val-E]

I would love it to retire as much as you guys do and while I respect the theory mentioned, saying it will poof because a Ferrari is coming along is not necessarily going to make it so -  based on past evidence.

 

Exciter asked a valid question about the Mini which is still waiting to be answered- last year people rushed to buy campers on the premise it was going because the Mini was coming and it didn

Edited April 4, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Crustybeaver]

I would love it to retire as much as you guys do and while I respect the theory mentioned, saying it will poof because a Ferrari is coming along is not necessarily going to make it so

While not conclusive it's certainly more feasible. When the Ferrari is released there will be three Creator exclusives in the licensed vehicle theme. Sets need to be retired to make way for new lines, after all there's only so much space on the shelves.

[Val-E]

Only if the sets are on shelves! The Mini is just arriving in shops now as a non lego shop exclusive and f40 won

[biniou]

While not conclusive it's certainly more feasible. When the Ferrari is released there will be three Creator exclusives in the licensed vehicle theme. Sets need to be retired to make way for new lines, after all there's only so much space on the shelves.

Yes but who knows, if it's such a good seller and B&M stores need some space, it can be a LEGO Shop at Home exclusive... (another good way to promote the LEGO Shop at Home, what Lego is focused on)

Edited April 4, 2015 by biniou