10220 - Volkswagen T1 Camper Van

[JM123]

Maybe you're right, inside information is not very likely.. but always possible. I also think because of the cooper, now the time has come that the VW camper will retire during summer. Think they want to create room for the MINI and retiring the VW camper should have influence that people buy the MINI instead of this nice VW camper.

 

We'll see the following months what will happen with this set. Got already a bunch of them and for me its an investment for the long time, so I don't really care if it sticks around for the time being.

[biniou]

Hej guys,

 

Here in Holland a large toy shop states that is is out of production since 1st April 2014. The last inventory is sold now online via webshops.

 

You can see the link here:

 

http://otten-speelgoed.nl/op-op/38505742.html

 

Translated to English it says: Out of production!!!! Last chance to get it.

 

Some other online Lego shops which are popular here in Holland don't have it in stock anymore. 1 shop didn't have a re-supply since week 11... So I really think and believe that if you want this set before retirement: Get it now before it is too late! ;-)

Never believe a seller who puts some "!!!" in their sells.

Only one is still too much. It's not serious.

The same for the /!RARE/!  sells and words in capital letters.

 

This one has two of them :

 

UIT PRODUCTIE !!!! ( LAATSTE KANS )

 

I don't mean this set is not near EOL (it is, because of the mini cooper).

I just mean this source (seller) can not be trusted. Well, no more or less than you and me.

[Ciglione]

Never believe a seller who puts some "!!!" in their sells.

Only one is still too much. It's not serious.

The same for the /!RARE/!  sells and words in capital letters.

 

This one has two of them :

 

 

I don't mean this set is not near EOL (it is, because of the mini cooper).

I just mean this source (seller) can not be trusted. Well, no more or less than you and me.

 

The price is not bad though.

[knarrff]

Never believe a seller who puts some "!!!" in their sells.

Terry Pratchett:

 

'Multiple exclamation marks,

[CNH1974]

Terry Pratchett:

Haha, those were my exact thoughts when I saw the post.

But I could not remember the quote. :)

[boliramirez]

well the Mini cooper is already in production, so probably T1 needs to fade out....

[wesman888]

I wouldn't say that the 10220 is either exclusive or hard to find in the UK. All major retailers seem have plenty of them. I have 22 and will buy a lot more if they drop to my trigger price. Just a shame it's been made in bucket loads compared to the Beetle.

What is your trigger price? I just bought a few of them at $87 each...

Sent from my SM-N900T using Brickpicker mobile app

[kingleonidas]

its still an excellent investment set 

[stephen_rockefeller]

I'm trying to figure out why so many people think that just because the mini is coming out that the T1 has to go. Is there some rule I don't know about that says there can only be a certain number of vehicle sets out?

[Darth_Raichu]

I'm trying to figure out why so many people think that just because the mini is coming out that the T1 has to go. Is there some rule I don't know about that says there can only be a certain number of vehicle sets out?

There can be only one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AoOa-Fz2kw

[JosephMali]

What is your trigger price? I just bought a few of them at $87 each...

Sent from my SM-N900T using Brickpicker mobile app

How did you do that? I would love to get them at that price.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I'm trying to figure out why so many people think that just because the mini is coming out that the T1 has to go. Is there some rule I don't know about that says there can only be a certain number of vehicle sets out?

That's correct,  its like saying the TB has to go because the Opera House is out.  

How many modulars are now available.  GE, PS, TH, PC, PR

[asharerin]

So TLG keeps production info a secret, but they've decided to give this store the inside scoop? Right, because no store has ever tried methods like this to move product.

 

TLG production is as about as secretive as what components Apple is currently buying in China lol.

[inversion]

TLG production is as about as secretive as what components Apple is currently buying in China lol.

TLG produces as long as there is significant demand and they don't have a product that could substitute it entirely. Nothing secretive about it. It was not like this always, but at least from 2009-2010 it is (lego retirement policy changed after, so that is why the Beetle argument is not valid).

 

Regarding why the Mini is not a substitute of the T1 is the following: they behave if they were complements. If somebody likes one of them it is very probable he/she will like the other one too and the price points are reasonable enough to buy them both. Just like the modulars, which are true complementary goods because they are connectable and that is why we won't see significantly pricier buildings. LEGO wants people to buy all, not at once, but presumably in a reasonable time interval while still serving those who can only afford to buy one.

 

On the other hand large SW UCS are more like substitutes in the mid term, they are too expensive to consider more than one for an average buyer in the short/middle run and LEGO does not have to keep many in production. 2 are just like enough, DS and SSD currently, SSD probably being replaced by the Sandcrawler. But why 2 then instead of one? It is answered in my other argument.

 

If we look at the large exclusives, either landmarks or SW, it can be spotted that generally they cater for different tastes. TB is a classical building while Sydney Opera House is a modern landmark. DS is a playset, SSD is a display model (that is why  I think that the Sandcrawler is a replacement for the DS in the long run and we will have another large display model at the latest in the beginning of the next year). LEGO wants to give some choice, regardless of them expecting you to buy only one to maximize the possbility of a purchase.

 

So, my conclusion: smaller exclusives can be designed as complements and there is reason to keep more in the market at once (modulars!). The Mini is very similar to the T1, but LEGO can sell them both at once. On the other hand we can generally assume that large exclusives will only stay on the market in the middle run simultaneously if they are differentiated enough. Both arguments follow simple demand analysis logic, and I doubt it that LEGO would think another way.

[biniou]

I'm trying to figure out why so many people think that just because the mini is coming out that the T1 has to go. Is there some rule I don't know about that says there can only be a certain number of vehicle sets out?

It's only guess based on the fact that the VW Beetle and VW van weren't available at the same time.

And the VW beetle has been available for 1 year and a half, and the van is 2 years and a half old.

So there's no "rule" but I think it's kind of logical to think the van will be retired soon.

[Mos_Eisley]

It's only guess based on the fact that the VW Beetle and VW van weren't available at the same time.

And the VW beetle has been available for 1 year and a half, and the van is 2 years and a half old.

So there's no "rule" but I think it's kind of logical to think the van will be retired soon.

 

The Beetle and T1 weren't available at the same time because the Beetle was gone almost 2 years before the Camper was released.  Inversion nailed it on the head - it's more likely that the Camper will stick around a while longer because the Mini is coming.  A lot of people will want to buy both.

[jaisonline]

I agree with inversion and mos. I do think both will co-exist for at least 6 months.

The VW Bug prob only lasted 18 months because it wasn't a good seller like 10220. Additionally, most sets had a shorter lifespan before 2011.

[inversion]

The VW Bug prob only lasted 18 months because it wasn't a good seller like 10220. Additionally, most sets had a shorter lifespan before 2011.

 

Exactly. LEGO was following the same routine with their exclusives as with the general themes before 2010. One after the other. Release a new, retire an old. No 2 police headquarters at the same time. It was only then that they realized that the market for excluisves follows different rules.

[knarrff]

But at the same time, every set Lego produces adds to their cost. They simply have to retire some sets if they want to come out with new sets. Now - the few exclusives are nothing compared to the number of other sets they have. They might simply decide to produce more exclusives with only a small impact on the others. In the end we are back to guessing.

[emazers]

The Big Question is how long does Lego Have the License for on the Camper, the end of this year will be 3 years, when the License is up production has to stop. And its not cheap for Lego to get the rights to make sets. So this should be it on the Camper with the Mini Cooper coming out. But Everybody should be getting one or so whenever they can, don't wait until Dec and say why didn't I start getting these a year or so ago.

[IMDeus]

The Big Question is how long does Lego Have the License for on the Camper, the end of this year will be 3 years, when the License is up production has to stop. And its not cheap for Lego to get the rights to make sets. So this should be it on the Camper with the Mini Cooper coming out. But Everybody should be getting one or so whenever they can, don't wait until Dec and say why didn't I start getting these a year or so ago.

 

But is there a rush for these now? I could pick them up later and put money into something that has The Signs right now. I know we don't know when these will go but why the rush when there are no signs yet? I am still learning so I am not contesting this, just inquiring.

[knarrff]

I don't think there is a rush right now. Just make sure you get one if you really want to build one yourself. Otherwise you can probably put your money elsewhere. Think back to the tower bridge. It was supposed to be retired by now, and is still easily available.

[jaisonline]

The Big Question is how long does Lego Have the License for on the Camper, the end of this year will be 3 years, when the License is up production has to stop. And its not cheap for Lego to get the rights to make sets. So this should be it on the Camper with the Mini Cooper coming out. But Everybody should be getting one or so whenever they can, don't wait until Dec and say why didn't I start getting these a year or so ago.

 

totally agree with Ed here.  i started buying these while the retailer exclusive discounts were allowed.  now i've been buying 1-3 per month using my amazon points to create my own discount after using the bricklink clic-thru.  it's a great set to build or invest in. 

[jaisonline]

But is there a rush for these now? I could pick them up later and put money into something that has The Signs right now. I know we don't know when these will go but why the rush when there are no signs yet? I am still learning so I am not contesting this, just inquiring.

 

the signs are not easy to spot like before 2012.  this can retire at anytime and the mad rush will began.  regardless, i would wager that we are closer to the retirement date (whenever that is) than not. 

 

please remember that i'm one of the older members around that DO NOT advocate buying sets early in the retail life-cycle.  i usually go with my gut and it's telling me we are 2/3rds to 3/4ths into it's retail life.   ** i might be totally wrong here but i'm not taking chances with this and Sopwith Camel.  **

[inversion]

The Big Question is how long does Lego Have the License for on the Camper, the end of this year will be 3 years, when the License is up production has to stop. And its not cheap for Lego to get the rights to make sets. So this should be it on the Camper with the Mini Cooper coming out. But Everybody should be getting one or so whenever they can, don't wait until Dec and say why didn't I start getting these a year or so ago.

If a license agreement is non-exclusive, which means that the seller sells it to multiple buyers then a dynamic license agreement is very likely. Fix fee for the first X years and/or a share from all sales, and after the years only the share remains. This is beneficial to both parties, because in this case they can produce exactly as long as the demand is satisfactory, and the licenser has nothing to do just receive the contribution.

 

We don't know what type of agreement LEGO has. And lots of people forget the benefits of the licenser aside the fee. SW is profitable because of the merchandise mostly, and in that case the movies sell the merchandise.

 

VW produces cars, it has no direct interest in profits from toy sales. In fact, VW toys carry a very strong marketing value. If I were a car company, I would give these licenses for free for such a quality partner as LEGO. Don't forget that nowadays car companies pay huge sums to Hollywood for product placement. 

 

In summary, speculation about certain license agreements is pointless, especially the ones which represent companies not living from merchandise.