What is the best way to know when a set will be retiring?

[Hosamov]

I've just recently gotten into the LEGO investing game after having picked up the [popular] Kindle book: Brickvesting, by Alex Stewart. After semi-learning the ropes of the sites mentioned in the book (including Brickpicker.com, which I visit, by far, the most), I still have the unanswered question, as to how you might figure out if a set will soon be retiring. I've seen the set years listed on the BP item pages, but there is no release date to get an idea of EOL, which I don't know if it's intentional, or just nobody knows the info. I've also tried the LEGO website. 

 

Ok, so what brings this up, is I recently bought 9516 - Jabba's Palace on-sale for $89.xx. As I was researching whether or not I should put down that chunk of change, I came across quite a few of the above named up for sale on eBay that list/advertise the set as RETIRED, or RARE, etc. Nowhere have I seen that this set is retired or "rare" at this point...even after researching the "Soon Retiring" section of the LEGO website. I'm just trying to get a feel for HOW to best know when a set gets released, so I can tactfully plan for investing before those nice juicy investment sets retire.

Thanks for helping a newbie!

 

-Hosa 

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

If you want to know if a set is retired or not, Brickset has the info and we will have it soon on the BP pages.

 

If you want to know when a set will retire while its still out, you can take a piece of gum, chew it, then put it on a ruler and flip it towards a calendar. Thats about as effective a method as any other.

[jaisonline]

If you want to know if a set is retired or not, Brickset has the info and we will have it soon on the BP pages.

 

If you want to know when a set will retire while its still out, you can take a piece of gum, chew it, then put it on a ruler and flip it towards a calendar. Thats about as effective a method as any other.

 

ha.  what?  you don't like spit-balls?  seriously though, great advice.  it is an unknown even for most lego employees (i asked a few).

[justafrog]

Welcome, Hosa. In addition to the excellent advice above, you have probably already learned my next advice: pay no attention at all to eBay sellers who use the words "rare!" "retired!" without independently verifying that that is true.

 

Sadly, some people who want your money have no issue at all about lying to you to get it.

[Hosamov]

If you want to know if a set is retired or not, Brickset has the info and we will have it soon on the BP pages.

 

 

 

I didn't think to check Brickset for that info! Thanks for pointing me in the right direction there!

 

 

 

If you want to know when a set will retire while its still out, you can take a piece of gum, chew it, then put it on a ruler and flip it towards a calendar. Thats about as effective a method as any other.

 

 So you're telling me that if I flick a wad of ABC gum toward my calendar, that the date it lands on will magically turn into the retirement date?    OR, will it just make a mess for my wife to clean up?

 

 

Welcome, Hosa. In addition to the excellent advice above, you have probably already learned my next advice: pay no attention at all to eBay sellers who use the words "rare!" "retired!" without independently verifying that that is true.

 

Sadly, some people who want your money have no issue at all about lying to you to get it.

 

Thanks! Yes, I figured that people were just trying to con innocent buyers/collectors there. I just wasn't aware of HOW to know if it was fact or fiction. Thanks again!

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Asking people around here is honestly the best resource.

 

Ebay is a silly place sometimes. You will see unretired sets listed at 4 times their MSRP and everyday sets called "limited quantity" and "exclusive", etc. Its frustrating sometimes, but if you start selling stuff, those terrible prices make yours look better I guess.

[sadowsk1]

I would say once a set receives the temporarily out of stock or sold out tag along with retired through Lego.com.

[MartinP]

The method I have been using is seeing if the set is retired in other countries like the UK, and Australia. If the set is retired in those areas, then it will likely retire shortly in the US. Just noticed that with the Vampyre Castle. It is retired in the UK, so it will be on its way out in the US soon.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

The method I have been using is seeing if the set is retired in other countries like the UK, and Australia. If the set is retired in those areas, then it will likely retire shortly in the US. Just noticed that with the Vampyre Castle. It is retired in the UK, so it will be on its way out in the US soon.

 

I think it now says retired in the US. May be wrong though

[Hosamov]

The method I have been using is seeing if the set is retired in other countries like the UK, and Australia. If the set is retired in those areas, then it will likely retire shortly in the US. Just noticed that with the Vampyre Castle. It is retired in the UK, so it will be on its way out in the US soon.

 

That sounds like a good way! I noticed when I was doing some research earlier on Brickset.com, that a lot of the sets retired a couple months earlier abroad than in the US. A lot also said they retired on the same day in the US as the UK.

[c666187]

I think it now says retired in the US. May be wrong though

 

shop.lego.com US, does not say anything about "retired" or "retiring soon" for the US. However, it is currently "sold out".

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

shop.lego.com US, does not say anything about "retired" or "retiring soon" for the US. However, it is currently "sold out".

 

Lol, I was in the wrong region.

[MartinP]

That sounds like a good way! I noticed when I was doing some research earlier on Brickset.com, that a lot of the sets retired a couple months earlier abroad than in the US. A lot also said they retired on the same day in the US as the UK.

There is one downside to this strategy. You may have to wait one month to six months for the set to retire. It is pretty much a waiting game. Also, some sets do not follow this pattern. Those sets retire first in the US, and they last longer in the UK. It all depends on the set.

[agp548]

if you wanna know when a lego set is gonna retire, ask a lego store employee. They are loaded with all types of information. They know everything.

[MartinP]

if you wanna know when a lego set is gonna retire, ask a lego store employee. They are loaded with all types of information. They know everything.

Just most of the time they are lying to you and giving you false information.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

if you wanna know when a lego set is gonna retire, ask a lego store employee. They are loaded with all types of information. They know everything.

 

You should have put this in comic sans font

[agp548]

 

Just most of the time they are lying to you and giving you false information.

 

lol I was being sarcastic. IMO they know next to nothing.

[MartinP]

   

lol I was being sarcastic. IMO they know next to nothing.

They do not know next to nothing. They do not know ANYTHING about EOL information. Lego employees can speculate as much as we do, and both of us can still be wrong. I am wondering if Lego employees use DNIIM method of randomly picking a day on a calender.

[Grolim]

Trying to pick an EOL time for a current set can be very difficult and it's something we devote a lot of time on speculation and research here on the forums.  In my opinion this is a list of things that factor into decisions on estimating a projected EOL date:

 

• Brickset have info on already retired set dates (as mentioned Brickpicker has started collecting this as well now)
• Lego S@H tags that say "retired".  "Sold out" and "retiring soon" give some insight into future retirement but it has been proven these tags are not to be 100% relied on
• The time the set has been out - things like Ewok Village or Tower of Orthanc have just been released and you can reasonably expect them to be around for a good while longer.  The average of 2 years retail is a decent yardstick for most average sets, but larger SW and modulars have pushed well past that.  That leads into;
• The theme a set is from - Some themes have a reliable track record of EOL turnover.  City sets for example.  Is the set from a "one off" theme like Monster Fighters etc?  How long have others within the theme stuck around for?
• Retail stock levels - is the set getting hard to find on store shelves.  Talked to the manager about ordering more and they can't get any?  This adds to the picture.
• Rumors and aggregate opinions of store employees - Yes Lego or other store employee information is usually meaningless and baseless when taken at an individual level.  However, did the information come from a store drone or from a manager - even then it's still not bankable.  But start to hear the exact same story from 5 or 10 different sources and you can put greater strength in the information being accurate.  That leads into;
• Information from the forums - people spend a lot of time talking EOL dates here.  Again, isolated information needs to be examined as to its source (is the member reputable and well known for providing a proven track record of insight etc?).  People discuss the above factors and more and often come up with a loose consensus of when a set may EOL.  Take that information and apply your own logic to it and come up with your own gut feelings - then share it back on the forums like others do to help refine it.
• Is the set the 10188 Death Star? - If so all bets are off! 

 

Sometimes it isn't even necessary to predict EOL dates.  If you are an investor that just wants 1 or a small handful of a set due to budget or storage limitations etc then you can often just wait until it is certain or almost certain that the set has gone EOL and then hunt around and snag any remaining retail stock you can find.  If you're a bigger investor it's harder as you may need to stagger your purchases and build inventory over time.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Put it this way, you have plenty of time to go to the toilet.