10937 - Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout

[Guest TabbyBoy]

Since what I posted i have gotten 10 emails telling me to let people sell them cheap as it will be more for us to sell and make more money, one email said he sold most of his HH and now he is sorry, and another email from a guy that sold 2 SSD so he will have money to go after the clearance stuff after Christmas, for selling Lego for 14 years most of the people I have known regret buying the wrong sets and the main thing they regret is "Selling there stuff way way to early" Now like I said if you need the money well thats different, but people should not be spending hundreds and thousands of dollars using Rent,Car payments, Food,etc. Ed

 

I bought a lot of the wrong sets (mostly CITY) which wouldn't have happened if I came across BP a couple of months earlier.  I can only agree, I only spend disposable income on LEGO which I can let ride for a while or even lose.  I too was tempted once to sell my FB, TH, GE, SSD, B-Wing, R2-D2, etc. early but, I'm in no rush now.

[Ciglione]

Since what I posted i have gotten 10 emails telling me to let people sell them cheap as it will be more for us to sell and make more money, one email said he sold most of his HH and now he is sorry, and another email from a guy that sold 2 SSD so he will have money to go after the clearance stuff after Christmas, for selling Lego for 14 years most of the people I have known regret buying the wrong sets and the main thing they regret is "Selling there stuff way way to early" Now like I said if you need the money well thats different, but people should not be spending hundreds and thousands of dollars using Rent,Car payments, Food,etc. Ed

 

Ed, relax. I agree with you. But there are more roads that lead to Rome. I have to admit a 40% return is not bad. It is not my style. But if everyone would do the same the investment game would be over. Am I wrong?

[buidee]

I have followed Emazers advice since I joined this website.  Thanks to him, I have HH, SSD, TH, etc and he warned us time and again to pick up AA whenever we can.  I ordered my last AA when SAH had the promo with Jor-El polybag with 2/2 winter set.  I am keeping all of mine for the long haul but I do know there are storage space issues for most of us and some have to sell their AA right away which is understandable. 

[toycrazedchris]

I have followed Emazers advice since I joined this website.  Thanks to him, I have HH, SSD, TH, etc and he warned us time and again to pick up AA whenever we can.  I ordered my last AA when SAH had the promo with Jor-El polybag with 2/2 winter set.  I am keeping all of mine for the long haul but I do know there are storage space issues for most of us and some have to sell their AA right away which is understandable. 

 

I am also long on AA and this pretty much sums up my experience/thoughts as well. I can't see anyone making a huge mistake taking a profit. If you sell your AA and invest that money in another desirable and soon-to-be-retired set, then you are likely still ahead of the guy that held the AA long-term. 

Edited December 8, 2014 by toycrazedchris

[Mos_Eisley]

I feel like I've read this conversation before...

[stephen_rockefeller]

[ravenb99]

This set has really jumped the last 24-36 hours.  Just over the weekend they were $230-250 and $275-290 is already possible on this set.  The timing that it sold out at really helped and the fact is was sparse compared to the others to begin with is helping it even more.  So just in the last 3 weeks 3 sets are already in the $60-100 range over retail (AA, R2, ToO).  

[boliramirez]

I do not know why but I personally do not Like AA,  I will probably regret it but I only have one..... I been buying other exclusives rather than this...... and have no intention of buying more......

[33Lego]

I do not know why but I personally do not Like AA,  I will probably regret it but I only have one..... I been buying other exclusives rather than this...... and have no intention of buying more......

maybe it is because of the play set nature of it.

[asharerin]

This set has really jumped the last 24-36 hours.  Just over the weekend they were $230-250 and $275-290 is already possible on this set.  The timing that it sold out at really helped and the fact is was sparse compared to the others to begin with is helping it even more.  So just in the last 3 weeks 3 sets are already in the $60-100 range over retail (AA, R2, ToO).  

 

Supplies of this set on the secondary market are looking very thin (roughly half of R2).

[legokent]

I don't really like this set either. Probably because I'm not a master builder. I can't make the rest of the Asylum.....I need this set to be $599.99 MSRP......

 

 

but.... I have to admit, I still bought many AAs.....

[inversion]

Since what I posted i have gotten 10 emails telling me to let people sell them cheap as it will be more for us to sell and make more money, one email said he sold most of his HH and now he is sorry, and another email from a guy that sold 2 SSD so he will have money to go after the clearance stuff after Christmas, for selling Lego for 14 years most of the people I have known regret buying the wrong sets and the main thing they regret is "Selling there stuff way way to early" Now like I said if you need the money well thats different, but people should not be spending hundreds and thousands of dollars using Rent,Car payments, Food,etc. Ed

The problem is that most people don't have the 'investor' mindset. People are myopic, impatient, subjective perception of probabilities is heavily biased, fail to consider opportunity costs and expected rate of returns.

For example the principle of optimal selling date: when the expected return on the current value of your asset is surpassed by another one after the transaction costs (if they have the same variance). Simply, if you have the option to switch for another asset with a higher expected return. The grave mistake people do here is taking into consideration the original price they bought the asset at. It doesn't matter! Even if you received it free! Only the expected growth rate matters! They like to tell themselves that 'Oh great! I made 100$ on it! It's enough!'. But if you reinvest that 100$+original price into an inferior asset you just made a wrong decision by selling. 

The issue here is how you calculate expected return and the corresponding risk. The investment valuation method most people use here, even without knowing its name, is the 'comparables' approach. However, since the LEGO market is not exactly consistent over time and largely volatile, predictions are mostly inaccurate and people have to rely on their instincts.

 

But, the essence is still the same. When you want to make a decision about selling or not, you have to ask this question: if my asset has an expected return R, can I find another one with R'>R with transaction costs (shipping, fees, etc.) accounted for? If not, then just keep the set. Already realised return is irrevelant! 

 

For exclusives I found that 2-2,5 years is the sweet spot.

Edited December 9, 2014 by inversion

[biking_tiger]

Someone sold two on eBay this morning for $67/$69 USD. Either a mismarked Batcave or five finger discount? Maybe even Robin Hood.

[jaisonline]

my two arkham sets from dec 2nd shop@home order was just canceled.  anyone else?

[donliu]

my two arkham sets from dec 2nd shop@home order was just canceled. anyone else?

I just got my orders cancelled

[lego rules]

so it begins.

[legogregors]

my two arkham sets from dec 2nd shop@home order was just canceled.  anyone else?

Mine from the 3rd when it was flipping in and out of "call for availability" was also canceled from "in Warehouse".  At least we have the winter skating scene...

[boliramirez]

Mine too , this will be my third skating scene "free" due to cancellations.....

[wildkarrde5]

mine from Dec 2nd shipped and was received. 

[Gondorian]

I went into Lego Store in Milton Keynes today, and managed to find one of these babies!  When I was buying it, two employees said they were shocked it was there ("must have been a return"), so sounds like they were clued up that it's retired but not clued up enough to see it on their shelf.  I'm on 8 now.

[labfreak7]

I love the box art, and have been buying this since the summer, heeding Ed's warnings as I am yet to read bad advice from him. I only have 5-6, but that's what my budget can afford. I am still a noob, started investing in January, so it is hard getting the capital to make these investments. So far no real regrets except for the bricktober sets.

[tractorboy]

I went into Lego Store in Milton Keynes today, and managed to find one of these babies!  When I was buying it, two employees said they were shocked it was there ("must have been a return"), so sounds like they were clued up that it's retired but not clued up enough to see it on their shelf.  I'm on 8 now.

You know you can still buy it online from Smyths right? Limit of 3.

And you can get

Edited December 9, 2014 by tractorboy

[Gondorian]

You know you can still buy it online from Smyths right? Limit of 3.

And you can get

[johnwray]

I order on the 2nd arrived, and my orders on the 3rd were canceled.

[tractorboy]

Yes, I've used the voucher already.  Didn't know it was a limit of 3 though.  I bought 3 last week (2 then another 1) and then used the voucher this morning to get the 4th.  Is it 3 in total or 3 in one order?

Dunno, I just bought one today.