6860 - The Batcave

[Grynn]

On eBay, this is $85 - $90 + shipping.  That's after the initial post-EOL price jump (such as it was).  Buy at $70, sell at $90, eBay + PayPal takes $10 in fees (more if you're not a top-rated seller).  So you clear $10 on a $70 investment.  Awesome.  I have no idea how one of these was sold for 130 euro.  Maybe to a buyer without internet access?

Sure, it could go up by Christmas.  Or it might go nowhere like dozens of other Super Heroes sets.  What seems pretty clear now, at least in hindsight, is that the original Batman theme benefitted enormously from a short life, followed by no remakes for half a decade or so.  Lego has thoroughly saturated this market, to say nothing of counterfeits.

Obviously this is not a set for a new investor to try and flip at MSRP. No point in illustrating that fact is there?

Christmas will no doubt bring the price up. I have no idea how much. 10%-100% is a possible range in my mind right now.

There is also not much point in comparing this set to 7783 (or any others from the Batman I line) from an investment standpoint. The similarities are the name of the set and the fact that it has Batman in it. After that, I'd consider almost all aspects to be differences.

As for market saturation, I agree that superheroes may be ramping up a bit fast, and the counterfeit game seems to hit this theme the hardest for now. But, um, it's not the pile of turds that Chima and Ninjago are. THAT is saturation, in my mind.

To the person who asked if it is worth picking up at $70, I'd say for long term (3+ years), absolutely. However, many sets will perform much better. If you need to turn a profit by the end of the year, it's probably a high risk place to put limited funds, so not recommended. In the intermediate time frame, you will find opportunities to turn a nice profit if you work at it, or maybe even if you don't.

[GhostDad]

Obviously this is not a set for a new investor to try and flip at MSRP. No point in illustrating that fact is there?

Christmas will no doubt bring the price up. I have no idea how much. 10%-100% is a possible range in my mind right now.

There is also not much point in comparing this set to 7783 (or any others from the Batman I line) from an investment standpoint. The similarities are the name of the set and the fact that it has Batman in it. After that, I'd consider almost all aspects to be differences.

As for market saturation, I agree that superheroes may be ramping up a bit fast, and the counterfeit game seems to hit this theme the hardest for now. But, um, it's not the pile of turds that Chima and Ninjago are. THAT is saturation, in my mind.

To the person who asked if it is worth picking up at $70, I'd say for long term (3+ years), absolutely. However, many sets will perform much better. If you need to turn a profit by the end of the year, it's probably a high risk place to put limited funds, so not recommended. In the intermediate time frame, you will find opportunities to turn a nice profit if you work at it, or maybe even if you don't.

I think it's always helpful to take a look at what happens if you want or need to sell in the very short term.  Because for the very short term, we have actual data.  For Christmas 2015, we have only speculation.  If you bought TH for $200 from one of the brief Walmart appearances late last year, you could see that you were up $100 or so (at the time), even if you sold the set on eBay the day it arrived at your house.  Also, the steepest price jump for a set is usually right after EOL, so when it moves by less than 50% in the first six months (like Batcave), I have real doubts about performance going forward.

[Ciglione]

Obviously this is not a set for a new investor to try and flip at MSRP. No point in illustrating that fact is there?

Christmas will no doubt bring the price up. I have no idea how much. 10%-100% is a possible range in my mind right now.

There is also not much point in comparing this set to 7783 (or any others from the Batman I line) from an investment standpoint. The similarities are the name of the set and the fact that it has Batman in it. After that, I'd consider almost all aspects to be differences.

As for market saturation, I agree that superheroes may be ramping up a bit fast, and the counterfeit game seems to hit this theme the hardest for now. But, um, it's not the pile of turds that Chima and Ninjago are. THAT is saturation, in my mind.

To the person who asked if it is worth picking up at $70, I'd say for long term (3+ years), absolutely. However, many sets will perform much better. If you need to turn a profit by the end of the year, it's probably a high risk place to put limited funds, so not recommended. In the intermediate time frame, you will find opportunities to turn a nice profit if you work at it, or maybe even if you don't.

Here is where things go wrong. The times for quick flipping recently retired sets is as good as over. This set is not for quick flipping. Certainly not if bought at RRP. I admit. I was lucky selling it at 130 euro. But around here it is far more scarce as in the US. And that is the secret. Scarcety.

Stop about calling Ninjago and Chima failures. Cause they are absolutely not. Ninjago is a winner and some Chima sets are as well. MISB they are scarce. Cause people buy these sets for their kids. Boxes get teared open, get build, pieces get lost, etc. 

7783 was far less produced. And yes, I am sure it was. Burn me if you disagree. These sets are scarce. Especially MISB. And it was a very nice set as well. That sure helped too. 

I am in this game for 1,5 years now. I am still a rookie compared to others here. But I already noticed how this game has changed in such a short period of time. Yes, one has to adapt to the new situation. That is correct. But how can you adapt? I mean... the last week I made several road trips to hunt for lego. What did I find? Nada! Either shops I bought nice things before have failed or they have nothing left. All was robbed away. Only new stuff to find and too expensive compared to SaH. The last weeks... even in this normally slow time I have sold sets like it was Xmas. People buy anything! This is what worries me. How can you adapt if there is nothing to buy? 

Let me keep my "failed" 6860 batcave. Cause I am sure it will become at least 200 euro in a couple of years. I am not sure if the new unretired sets will give the same return. 

"Positive results in the past are no guarantee for the future". 

[zskid00]

Comparing the Batcave to any exclusive is not apples to apples.  Comparing it to Town Hall is just unfair.  Sets either go up or they don't, huh?  This one has gone up, has it not?

[ravenb99]

In general, sets go up or they don't.  Six months after EOL, FB was nearly 2 x MSRP.

you're looking at current sales at the lowest sell through period of the summer when prices are the lowest to begin with and saying its not good.  This set hits 120+ every xmas, even while it was not retired.

You could say the same thing about other sets that just "retired" by looking at current prices.  FW sells at 130 shipped , so is that a terrible investment???  

Farnsworth house is $80 at the moment on ebay.  Bad investment??

Minecraft 21102 , same thing recently part of the last retired batch, $40 on ebay right now

Using what a set is selling at in June is not a good example.  

As migration stated and Exciter it will be 120-130 at Xmas.  Buying at $70 for a few month hold is not bad.

Just coming out and saying its a terrible investment at retail to someone asking if that is a bad price doesn't make sense and using current ebay price makes even less sense.

 

 

 

 

[Ed Mack]

Batman sets are quality LEGO investments.  They might not always explode, but they will produce given time.  The 6860 Batcave will be a mid range set on the "Appreciation Scale," but it will not be a loser.  If LEGO never develops another Batcave, this set can do extremely well.  If it does (and probably will) produce another Batcave, this set's growth will be stunted.  Once again, it is about what price you bought this set at.  Many people bought this set around the $50 mark, so $90 right now looks pretty good to me.  It has shown slow and steady growth and I look for that to continue.  

[GhostDad]

Batman sets are quality LEGO investments.  They might not always explode, but they will produce given time.  The 6860 Batcave will be a mid range set on the "Appreciation Scale," but it will not be a loser.  If LEGO never develops another Batcave, this set can do extremely well.  If it does (and probably will) produce another Batcave, this set's growth will be stunted.  Once again, it is about what price you bought this set at.  Many people bought this set around the $50 mark, so $90 right now looks pretty good to me.  It has shown slow and steady growth and I look for that to continue.  

Sure, but $50 is not $70.  The OP was asking if he should buy it at $70.  Anyway, I could point to a whole range of sets for which people had very high expectations that have gone nowhere pricewise in the last 12 months.  Say, just about the entire LotR lineup.  And any number of Super Heroes sets.  Buying in on most non-exclusives at MSRP is a bad move.  Better to buy Batcave at MSRP now than a year ago, but still bad.

And yes, Ninjago and Chima are disaster zones.  Everything post 2011 in the Ninjago world, except Destiny's Bounty, was a terrible buy, up to and sometimes including 50% off.

[Grynn]

I think it's always helpful to take a look at what happens if you want or need to sell in the very short term.  Because for the very short term, we have actual data.  For Christmas 2015, we have only speculation.  If you bought TH for $200 from one of the brief Walmart appearances late last year, you could see that you were up $100 or so (at the time), even if you sold the set on eBay the day it arrived at your house.  Also, the steepest price jump for a set is usually right after EOL, so when it moves by less than 50% in the first six months (like Batcave), I have real doubts about performance going forward.

I absolutely agree with considering an early exit strategy, but to let that perspective dominate investment decisions without the intention to flip is just silly. The truth is, we don't know what time frame micbelt had in mind when the question was asked (perhaps he didn't either), yet we are throwing our opinions around like they are a bit heavier than they really are (myself included). 

As others have already pointed out, there are lots of sets that incubate for months or years post EOL before catching on, as well as the ones that never do. I often wonder how much of an impact TRU has on this phenomenon. This Batcave isn't quite in the same quality league as, say Black Pearl or Queen Anne's Revenge, yet it could follow a similar pattern of increasing value. Personally I think that is wishful thinking - but not impossible. It could also act like Whitecap Bay, to be fair. I agree with Ed's prediction that it will fall somewhere in the middle, with moderate returns. I'm happy to drop my half dozen Batcaves at the end of the year above $150 but also content to hang onto them 1-2 more years until they get there.

 

Stop about calling Ninjago and Chima failures. Cause they are absolutely not. Ninjago is a winner and some Chima sets are as well. MISB they are scarce. Cause people buy these sets for their kids. Boxes get teared open, get build, pieces get lost, etc. 

I am in this game for 1,5 years now. I am still a rookie compared to others here. But I already noticed how this game has changed in such a short period of time. Yes, one has to adapt to the new situation. That is correct. But how can you adapt? I mean... the last week I made several road trips to hunt for lego. What did I find? Nada! Either shops I bought nice things before have failed or they have nothing left. All was robbed away. Only new stuff to find and too expensive compared to SaH. The last weeks... even in this normally slow time I have sold sets like it was Xmas. People buy anything! This is what worries me. How can you adapt if there is nothing to buy? 

 

I admit my statement was a bit harsh, but I stand by it in a general sense. I have nothing but respect for those such as yourself who have done well with the last 2 years' sets in these themes, but it just isn't reality for the VAST majority of investors, especially in the States. I too made some $$$ off the right Chima/Ninjago sets and am still sitting on even more others obtained at deep discounts which still won't cover fees if I dump them now. These themes as a whole have become very poor performers. I'm finished with speculating on them to the point where I will grab most Star Wars or Super Hero sets at 30% off long before I even think about 95% of Ninjago or Chima at less than 75% off. 

I completely agree with your point about things changing quickly especially in retail stores. The difference between last year and this year will probably be the greatest we see in this Lego investing "era". It's a brand new world... now I am going to read about the good ol' days, lol.

[legodelorean]

Maybe more Brickpickers should look at the slow and steady method of making money.  

Slow and steady wins the race..........

[Migration]

Anyone seen the Batcave 6860 thread? I can't seem to find it.

Edited June 21, 2015 by Migration

[justapilgrim]

Batcave thread

that is all

[jaisonline]

I do think this Batcave will end up getting refreshed soon enough and should hit a MISB ceiling not that far from the 2006's 7883's used price (if a refresh is 2+ years away). Demand and the the relatively cheap price is what kept 6860 at retail so long. Kids always want a Batcave and Batmobile.

[TheDarkness]

I have certainly eased up. Sets that have key figs in which I think will be less likely to rock up again I try acquire. It is so frustrating that they feel the need to include Batman In almost every DC set and took forever to get decent variation in Spiderman. 
The Batcave looked strong initially but now has stagnated. Considering how many Batmobiles we have seen already I don't think another Batcave is far away. 
Right now my money is looking at Guardans of the Galaxy and the X-Men set where refreshes seem a lot less likely. 

[cmartin33]

Yes, refreshes play a major role. When I was writing the book, Jeff and I basically took a look at ALL of the major themes (30+) and I wrote a chapter on each. You would be surprised how many sets are out there that currently sell for hundreds of dollars and people on this site never talked about them or know they exist. Ghost Dad said something to the effect that if the Brickpicker members don't discuss it than it must not be worthy of investing in. I'm here to tell you we all miss a lot of opportunities everyday on passing on certain sets.

Where is this book you are talking about Ed? I'd love to read it.

[iahawks550]

Pairing the Batcave with the Funhouse will bring $200 at the end of the year. Considering the buy-in most had with these sets, it will be almost a double-up deal after fees (and shipping)

[exciter1]

I think everyone agrees that Chima and Ninjago posts belong elsewhere and that this conversation/discussion has been driven into the ground so let's summarize so we can move on.

I'm moving the whole thing here shortly.

[El Guapo]

it would be most helpful if we go back to the batcave. My 2 cents .

most of what is being said have been said over and over on many threads . 

 

Yeah, sorry.

Purchasing the Batcave at retail today, is not an investment decision that I would make.  It isn't a TERRIBLE one, but just not what I would say is the best use of funds.  To me this set is entrenched in the slow but solid mover category.  You would also be competing with most that have bought in at around $50 so would be at a disticnt disadvantage there. 

If you like it, and want to build it, that is a great price.

[Ciglione]

The Batcave is a wonderful set. It will do good in the future. I am very positive. It has a killer boxart. Nice minifigs. And as others have mentioned... it is the freakin' batcave! The reason why it is a slow grower is that many people invested in it. So you have to be patient for it to become scarce. But when it does... you can cash in.

And that is what I have been trying to say in my posts previously. If you want to pick winners you have to go your own way. Discover the new fronteer. Look at what works for you. What works in your piece of the world. I always compare it with playing the lotto lottery. If you pick numbers that are picked by others as well and you win you will have to share the pot. If you pick numbers that are not picked normally you probably will be the only one and have the whole pot for yourself. There is an actual science behind this. 

 

[Val-E]

Yes indeedy. Going deep into  Pet Shops or Tower Bridges may not be the best decision as so many others have already tread and are treading those waters. 

Going it your way has inherent risks but if you know your market well enough you can minimise them. The way that the Lego investment club is becoming more and more oversubscribed, it may even be the key to long term survival.

[Ed Mack]

Where is this book you are talking about Ed? I'd love to read it.

The book with all the secrets to LEGO investing in it....  Editor's Pick of the Month and #1 New Release as well!

[exciter1]

The book with all the secrets to LEGO investing in it....  Editor's Pick of the Month and #1 New Release as well!

I already have several pre-orders sold in my EBay Store.

[Ed Mack]

I already have several pre-orders sold in my EBay Store.

Cool.  Sell it for $100.00.  It's worth it.  LOL

[El Guapo]

Cool.  Sell it for $100.00.  It's worth it.  LOL

Quick Flipping the Macks book = irony. 

I will definitely pick one up.  You should start a thread, I think most on here would support your book. 

[Ed Mack]

Quick Flipping the Macks book = irony. 

I will definitely pick one up.  You should start a thread, I think most on here would support your book. 

Unlike LEGO, we don't care if you flip the book for a profit.  God Bless Flippers!!!

[Darth_Raichu]

Quick Flipping the Macks book = irony. 

I will definitely pick one up.  You should start a thread, I think most on here would support your book. 

You meant like this one ?

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/14064-brickpicker-collecting-price-guide-book-coming-soon/#comment-457749