Minecraft - general discussion

[jaxman]

47 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

It has more of a story than Angry Birds yet we get almost 2 hours of that drivel soon

Well Angry Birds is a story old as time.  Who isn't familiar with the classic tale of pigs stealing some bird eggs,  then those birds building catapults and explosives to get the eggs back by knocking pigs off of random structures.  Cave people were drawing those stories on cave walls long ago.

[Armor]

Quote

You just lost all of your credibilities right there 

I have the grammar and spelling of a 15 year old . 

[justapilgrim]

I think the ship has sailed on Minecraft. The new ones this christmas weren't flippable. The new ones from the previous year linger on shelves at discount everywhere. And no one, I mean NO ONE wants the microworld sets. With the exception of the Village, most of them can still be found for around msrp. Minecraft was fun for a couple QFLL seasons, but I am out of the QFLL game now and see no investment potential in these sets. Good luck!

Still see these occasionally on discount $19 range and sell on amazon for $50+. Sold plenty at double what I paid. The nether one is the only one people don't want

[Armor]

There is 2 large and diffrent groups that have played minecraft. Those that played during alpha and beta and those that play now. The ones that played mincraft in alpha and beta are around 19 to 21 years old now. They have yet to reach any kind  of decent paying job and a chunk of them are heading off to college. Once they get out I'm betting that they will want to remember there child hood a little. Now they can play the game but they will most certainly have less time, I see the lego sets as one way to fill the void.

I don't believe minecraft sets will be good at flipping. I am holding minecraft sets for those who get out of college and start going to work full time. There should be only 1 more round of sets to cover the last of the biomes in the game. Minecraft might have the investment potential of Chima or they can do ok to good. I don't think minecraft sets will be 4x the base price in 5 years.

[charger465]

Never played the game itself but my nephew is a huge fan. Built many of the sets with him and I must say they are pretty cool and unique. Probably going to try to pick up some for my collection as well. 

[Drejk]

Minecraft is a seasonal Christmass winner. For example 21113 is all year long available for 20-25USD and during December can be sold up to 50USD. I do not see minecraft as good theme for investment, but good for a flip. And what I learned it is very risky. One day you can sell for 50USD (double your money) and the other day when retailers restock you end up with tied-up capital and have to wait a year for next X-mas.

So, still thinking about buying 1-5pieces  21113, 21119 and 21116 in November for 2016 X-mas flip

[Substored]

On 1/13/2016 at 4:42 AM, thoroakenfelder said:

I am not sure that success in the gaming industry (which is fickle and not generally long lasting) translates into long term success in other arenas. Sure, some of these sets might be good, if well done, but current fans of the game aren't likely to be looking for Minecraft merchandise in 3 or 5 years. Gamers are constantly looking for the next big game, and when it comes along they move on. The good news is, if the fans want to build blocky structures and environments out of square blocks, they could just buy regular LEGO buckets and have the minecraft experience at a better price per piece.

 

A little late into this conversion, but here it goes. If we were talking about most new games now i would have to agree with you. However we are talking about mine craft. I played this game in beta 8-9 years ago. I played it again after Launch and even after it sold millions of copies. Had kids and stopped some time ago. Now my daughter plays minecraft (6 years old.) and I didnt even introduce her to it. She asked me if she could play it because of EVERY kid at school is into it. This game is popular for multpile generations so far and shows no signs of stopping. We even recently had students from China stay with us who also played it a TON. Some of the top YouTube streamers are on Minecraft with millions of followers. This game is not fickle and will out last most if not all games produced now.

That being said. How does this translate to Lego. Well if you think about it kids ages 5-12 are very into minecraft. these kids will for the next 3-5 years keep asking for minecraft stuff and play it. Then they will grow out of it and "grow up" even then the next generation will no doubt in my mind pick it up. Anyways the original group now will after college or University gets jobs make $$. Then go search stuff on the web and see OLD 15-25 year old minecraft sets for sale on ebay and start to remember there childhood and want to relive it. Just look at Star Wars, Transformers ect. At this point WATCH out because the prices will go through the roof. I think this is what the OP had in mind when he said sleeper set. not for the fact no one knows about it or is not buying them but no investor now will hold them long enough to realize potential HUGE gains. Only the Collectors will see the Largere gains from this product. 

[Guest]

On Saturday, February 06, 2016 at 4:23 PM, Substored said:

A little late into this conversion, but here it goes. If we were talking about most new games now i would have to agree with you. However we are talking about mine craft. I played this game in beta 8-9 years ago. I played it again after Launch and even after it sold millions of copies. Had kids and stopped some time ago. Now my daughter plays minecraft (6 years old.) and I didnt even introduce her to it. She asked me if she could play it because of EVERY kid at school is into it. This game is popular for multpile generations so far and shows no signs of stopping. We even recently had students from China stay with us who also played it a TON. Some of the top YouTube streamers are on Minecraft with millions of followers. This game is not fickle and will out last most if not all games produced now.

That being said. How does this translate to Lego. Well if you think about it kids ages 5-12 are very into minecraft. these kids will for the next 3-5 years keep asking for minecraft stuff and play it. Then they will grow out of it and "grow up" even then the next generation will no doubt in my mind pick it up. Anyways the original group now will after college or University gets jobs make $$. Then go search stuff on the web and see OLD 15-25 year old minecraft sets for sale on ebay and start to remember there childhood and want to relive it. Just look at Star Wars, Transformers ect. At this point WATCH out because the prices will go through the roof. I think this is what the OP had in mind when he said sleeper set. not for the fact no one knows about it or is not buying them but no investor now will hold them long enough to realize potential HUGE gains. Only the Collectors will see the Largere gains from this product. 

I have to agree with this. Look at all those people buying The Simpsons, Ghostbusters, and StarWars most of them were kids who watched their shows and it adds a bit of a nostalgic feeling to buyers same thing can be said of games. I bet if a Legend of Zelda lego set comes out people who loved the game when they were kids will surely buy it!

[Kenxxx]

I'm loving reading up on this theme... really appreciate the thoughtful comparisons and predictions presented here.  I've yet to really start investing in this theme, and I'm trying to decide where to put my money.  Based on what I read here (and see on Amazon and eBay), naturally I have to lean towards 21113 The Cave and 21114 The Farm.  I like 21118 The Mine, just because it's the flagship of the first series... but I'm not so sure I want to invest in it at less than 50% off.  Many have picked these up at $69 Walmart clearance, and that's probably a safe buy, but I'm not so sure that you wouldn't make more money on that $69 if you bought 4 copies of 21113 instead. It's a tough call. The Cave has been an Amazon top seller forever.  In fact, the only thing that makes me nervous about investing in it is that it is so popular... there are so many sets out there already... I'm sure big resellers have stocked up thousands. Aside from being the cheapest (currently around $17), I was surprised to discover today that it also has the lowest cost per brick. $17 / 249 pcs = $0.068 per brick - cheaper than 21116 The Crafting Box (even at current sale prices of $41 / 518 pcs = $0.079 per brick).  In fact - if you can live without a Mooshroom, a Skeleton, and a few other special pieces - Buying 2 copies of 21113 will cost you $34, and give you nearly the same piece count as the $41 Crafting Box.

So it's easy to see why The Cave is doing so well. It's harder for me to understand why 21114 The Farm is so popular, and also why 21115 The First Night tends to be a slower seller of the theme. I like The First Night. It has a complete "house" which I think looks great in Lego... so much better than the typical "vignette" designs (a "wall" with figures to pose in front of it). Is it all about the minifigures?

[Adobo]

In my opinion this set has a lot of potential buyers and it would not matter which set you invest on. The children of today who love the game will buy it probably 10-20 years from now, maybe even in 30 years. Even if it goes 50% off today there would be only be a few surviving sets as years go by.

Edited February 27, 2016 by Adobo

[pete411]

4 hours ago, Adobo said:

In my opinion this set has a lot of potential buyers and it would not matter which set you invest on. The children of today who love the game will buy it probably 10-20 years from now, maybe even in 30 years. Even if it goes 50% off today there would be only be a few surviving sets as years go by.

I don't want to sell sets while on my deathbed. No thanks 

[Adobo]

That's what is fun about investing. Everyone has a different view about how things are and what doesn't work for you might work for others and vice versa.

[TheOrcKing]

Well the 1.9 Battle Update finally happened just a few days ago. For the heck of it I created a new world using "LEGO" of course for the seed generation. (A lot of nearby resources and livestock in this world.) It still is the same Minecraft and while taking some time to get the hang of, being able to dual wield has been great. I have not crafted the shield yet though but being able to quickly switch between an axe or pickaxe with the sword on the fly helps. Also being able to mine with a pickaxe in your main hand while wielding torches in the other makes mining more efficient. I can't wait to see all the latest changes for The End when I get there and on that note I wonder if there could be any new sets based around such developments.

[Stud-Flipper]

I feel that LEGO picked up the license too late. I would imagine the game was a relatively much more popular game several years ago before the PS4 and XBOX One really monopolized the video gaming markets and the latest installments of popular franchises like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto became even more commercially sucessful. I mean I'm sure it's still very popular, but I don't think Minecraft is at its peak level of overall interest anymore. I think it's become outdated and players are moving on to bigger and better things. The same goes for the Simpsons. I think had the sets been released say 15 years ago or even around 2007 when the movie was big, it wold've done much better. But instead it got released after the show has run for literally over a quarter of a century. And season after season, it gets lackluster Nielsen ratings, at levels that most new shows would be canceled within a season or 2, but they keep the Simpsons around just due to its cult classic status.

[lostontheverglow]

6 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

I feel that LEGO picked up the license too late. I would imagine the game was a relatively much more popular game several years ago before the PS4 and XBOX One really monopolized the video gaming markets and the latest installments of popular franchises like Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto became even more commercially sucessful. I mean I'm sure it's still very popular, but I don't think Minecraft is at its peak level of overall interest anymore. I think it's become outdated and players are moving on to bigger and better things. The same goes for the Simpsons. I think had the sets been released say 15 years ago or even around 2007 when the movie was big, it wold've done much better. But instead it got released after the show has run for literally over a quarter of a century. And season after season, it gets lackluster Nielsen ratings, at levels that most new shows would be canceled within a season or 2, but they keep the Simpsons around just due to its cult classic status.

Minecraft is also on X1 and PS4. And Microsoft and Sony are doing just fine with it right now. Just did a little digging around and found that Microsoft paid $2 billion for the rights to the game about 1 1/2 years ago. Microsoft is obviously very confident in this game.

Regardless, this has been debated on this thread for a bit. I haven't read the entire thread, and I'm sure the comparison has been made. Minecraft is like the digital version of LEGO which is why I see it having a long lasting appeal.

[Stud-Flipper]

13 minutes ago, lostontheverglow said:

Minecraft is also on X1 and PS4. And Microsoft and Sony are doing just fine with it right now. Just did a little digging around and found that Microsoft paid $2 billion for the rights to the game about 1 1/2 years ago. Microsoft is obviously very confident in this game.

Regardless, this has been debated on this thread for a bit. I haven't read the entire thread, and I'm sure the comparison has been made. Minecraft is like the digital version of LEGO which is why I see it having a long lasting appeal.

And I said relative. As each year goes by, it's having to compete with higher-budget, more heavily advertised games. Even back in say 2012, the video game market was far less polluted than it is now. More games are coming out than ever before. Not only that, but people are also spending their time playing alot of the mobile, facebook-type games, as can be seen with the crazy sucesses of games such as Flappy Bird and Candy Crush Saga. I don't think that Minecraft is pulling as many new players as say Halo, Call of Duty, GTA, etc. Eventually Minecraft will be stolen of almost all of it's players, except for the most loyal, traditional players. It will become like Runescape. The players will move to whatever is currently trending, or more flashier.

Not only that, but the sets don't decipher from each other enough, they all look too much alike. It's like, let's take a generic brick bucket of classic LEGO bricks, and slap a Minecraft logo on it.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Stud-Flipper

[Phil B]

4 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

And I said relative. As each year goes by, it's having to compete with higher-budget, more heavily advertised games. Even back in say 2012, the video game market was far less polluted than it is now. More games are coming out than ever before. Not only that, but people are also spending their time playing alot of the mobile, facebook-type games, as can be seen with the crazy sucesses of games such as Flappy Bird and Candy Crush Saga. I don't think that Minecraft is pulling as many new players as say Halo, Call of Duty, GTA, etc. Eventually Minecraft will be stolen of almost all of it's players, except for the most loyal, traditional players. It will become like Runescape. The players will move to whatever is currently trending, or more flashier.

As someone with two kids right smack in the target age for Minecraft (almost 10yr olds), and as a business owner who regularly hosts Minecraft camps, I can safely say that Minecraft is as popular as ever. There are very few kids who are NOT into Minecraft when they are between 6 and 12 years old. Sure there are other games (Terraria for example) but this age group is massively interested in MC, and has been for a long while. And MSFT/Mojang are keeping them hooked with new updates, new features etc. Pocket Edition only recently gained Redstone, The Nether and Hunger upgrades, while Minecraft PC got the aforementioned Battle Upgrade with tons of new cool features. The Minecraft Universe is so big with all the Mods and Custom Maps - Minecraft is going to be around for a while for sure.

Add to this that you can soon play Minecraft on the Oculus Rift VR headset (http://www.theverge.com/2015/9/24/9393163/minecraft-oculus-rift-windows-10) and you can see how the game will stay relevant for quite a while. Now, do the LEGO sets get played with as much as the game does, I don't know. My kids got most of the early sets but never played with them beyond the initial build, although the minifigs often feature in other play settings :).

[Alpinemaps]

I've got an 8 year old, and I have a 12 year old nephew.  My 12 year old has been playing Minecraft for years now, and still loves it.  I see the kids at my 8 year old's school (1st, 2nd, and 3rd grade) walking around with Minecraft shirts, Minecraft books, and talking all about it.  It's definitely still big for those ages.

[Phil B]

Heck, I used to play with my kids and alone a while ago (had to stop as I had to focus on my regular business and my LEGO reselling interests ) but just yesterday I picked up my tablet just to see what had changed between 0.12 and 0.14 and immediately got sucked in again. The game is awesome beyond belief.

[Stud-Flipper]

And are those 6, 8,10, and 12 year olds going to bother to buy the sets when they can just play the game, since it's apparently so awesome? 

And 5 years from now, will they stil care? Do you go out and buy memorabilia for games you played when you were 6?

Edited March 6, 2016 by Stud-Flipper

[Phil B]

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 11:32 AM, Stud-Flipper said:

And are those 6, 8,10, and 12 year olds going to bother to buy the sets when they can just play the game, since it's apparently so awesome? 

And 5 years from now, will they stil care? Do you go out and buy memorabilia for games you played when you were 6?

The point is: I don't think 6-12 year olds buy the Minecraft sets. I think parents/grandparents/family/friends of the 6-12 year olds think "hey, (s)he loves Minecraft, let's give him this Minecraft LEGO set". Given that LEGO just released a third series of Minecraft-themed sets (1st was the microworlds, second were the 2015 sets) with a good selection of sets (not just 1 or 2, but 5-6 new sets) these sets have no problem selling, even if it is not the kids themselves who ask for the sets.

BTW, what I said about my kids not playing with the Minecraft LEGO sets holds equally well for other Minecraft merchandise - they really wanted the Papercraft Minecraft folding sets, so we got them some for their birthday - some of it is still not put together and the parts that are are rarely touched. Granted, when I was a kid I had playmobil, lego and some matchbox(or Hotwheels) cars and that was all I had to play with, nowadays kids have way more choice in physical toys as well as digital toys so their focus on one specific play item is less.

[Loghamel]

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 11:32 AM, Stud-Flipper said:

And are those 6, 8,10, and 12 year olds going to bother to buy the sets when they can just play the game, since it's apparently so awesome? 

And 5 years from now, will they stil care? Do you go out and buy memorabilia for games you played when you were 6?

Really?  A toy must be purchased by a 6, 8, 10 or 12 year old to be successful?  How many 75120 Raptor Escape were bought by 12 yo last Christmas?  How many do you think were sold?  LEGO investing might not be the right game for you if you believe a toy must be bought by the targeted demographic for it to be successful.  That's what parents and grandparents are for.  And as mentioned earlier, if a kid plays a game all the time and loves LEGO, most parents and grandparents equate that to a sure fire win at Christmas.  If you doubt that, check the sales figures for every Minecraft set from late October to December the last 2 years.

[Stud-Flipper]

21 minutes ago, Loghamel said:

Really?  A toy must be purchased by a 6, 8, 10 or 12 year old to be successful?  How many 75120 Raptor Escape were bought by 12 yo last Christmas?  How many do you think were sold?  LEGO investing might not be the right game for you if you believe a toy must be bought by the targeted demographic for it to be successful.  That's what parents and grandparents are for.  And as mentioned earlier, if a kid plays a game all the time and loves LEGO, most parents and grandparents equate that to a sure fire win at Christmas.  If you doubt that, check the sales figures for every Minecraft set from late October to December that last 2 years.

It may do well in the short term, but not the long term. LEGO will make the large profit, not the resellers. If in 5 years, the theme is still around and those kids are still playing, those parents and grandparents will buy the current sets they can find in their local Wal-Mart, not something old that they have to pay for an extra fee on Amazon or Ebay. And the sets aren't distinct enough from each other for any particular set to matter. A grandparent will see them all the same.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Stud-Flipper

[Loghamel]

7 minutes ago, Stud-Flipper said:

It may do well in the short term, but not the long term. LEGO will make the large profit, not the resellers. If in 5 years, the theme is still around and those kids are still playing, those parents and grandparents will buy the current sets they can find in their local Wal-Mart, not something old that they have to pay for an extra fee on Amazon or Ebay.

That's a fair argument, though different than the one you posed earlier.  To this I would say I am no longer interested in holding ANY set for 5 years anymore.  It is more work to sell sets after only a few months hold as you have to wash and repeat each year.  But I believe this is a much safer bet than holding a set for 5 years and hoping it will not be re-made.  Too many remakes are occurring and they are either almost identical to the most recent version or are superior to the most recent version and this will kill your 5 year hold, both in ROI and opportunity costs.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Loghamel

[terrymc4677]

21116 Crafting Box - I can pick up five or six of these at 41% off, $29.xx each. I'm not into Minecraft at all, so from my perspective I would think this set would be popular since you can do so much with it. Looking at current eBay sold listings though seems to tell a different story. It's currently selling new substantially below retail. Has the hype for this theme finally disappeared? My only experience with Minecraft was quick flipping a few Mines the Christmas of 2014. If I pick these up I would probably sell this coming holiday season. Any thoughts?