I don't like The Hobbit

[bg2001]

Re: reseller v. investor -

 

Being an investor doesn't mean buying something when it is flat and expected to be flat for the forseeable future.  If it doesn't have near term growth prosepects then you might as well have your money in an interest bearing checking account, CD or even just cash.

 

Further, it is smart to lock in a return at the time of purchase.  That means being able to resell it at a profit right away (if you want) or being able to hold it for longer term investments. It doesn't mean you are buying it to resell and not to invest.  You are reducing your risk.

[justafrog]

On topic: I love the Hobbit and LoTR sets. This is a iconic fantasy classic that crosses the "Lego" barrier right into "every fantasy geek, like, ever" market.

 

Off topic:

Also, the Cave troll doesn't stand up. That figure should have been a $25-$30 figure, but its riding $12-14 because of it.

 

 

Sure he does. Just position his arms for balance, I stood mine up yesterday when we took photos of the fig to sell. I didn't try with the weapon though, maybe that throws him too far off?

[turbomattk]

Re: reseller v. investor -

 

Being an investor doesn't mean buying something when it is flat, expected to be flat for the forseeable future.  If it doesn't have near term growth prosepects then you might as well have your money in an interest bearing checking account. 

 

Further, it is smart to lock in a return at the time of purchase.  That means being able to resell it at a profit right away (if you want) or being able to hold it for longer term investments. 

 

I'm going to disagree with you on that one as well.  I think that with all the Hobbit sets marked down 30%'s across the country will dry up and once that happens the prices online are going to start to creep closer to MSRP around Christmas.  Which at that point is a locked in return.

[El Guapo]

To be honest, I am a big fan of the Hobbit, but I don't really own a ton of it as investment yet. I got some Wargs at 50% off and parted some out (as used...ha ha see Funhouse thread for three pages on this). I have 3 AUG's one I built, one I think I am going to give to my GF and the other...well just saving it now. Got these at 30%. So while my initial reaction was that BG2001 was crazy...now that I think about it I am doing pretty much the same thing.

[Gondorian]

If something is at 30% off and it's quite new, then I will buy one just so I have it.  Later on, I might start stocking up on more, but you've got to get that first one in case the 30% off never comes back.  With The Hobbit, I've bought 4 Wargs and 4 Mirkwood Spiders at about 40% off.

[Alcarin]

One thing I would like to aks is: Why is there so much separation between the Hobbit and LOTR? I feel like the sets are aimed at the same audience, have a ton in common and are basically the same theme. It seems as if a lot of people on here say "I love LOTR but hate the Hobbit". I am not trying to hate, just wonder why this is. On that same note, if we do want to separate themes, why not Star Wars? To be honest the Hobbit and LOTR are MUCH MORE CLOSELY related then the Original Trilogy and the Prequels --- totally different target audiences as these movies came out 25 years apart. OT is typically my generation and Prequels are the youngsters. Clone Wars has almost nothing to do with the OT. Not saying you can't like all three, but if we are going to use "Sub-themes" these seem like much more likely candidates...anyways...sorry...end rant.

 

Hobbit is a tale for CHILDREN.

 

LOTR is a tale for teenagers and adults...

 

Did you ever read them both?

 

Did you notice any difference in the tale and story concept? 

[Anakinisvader]

bg2001 you make some really good points.  I predict the Hobbit to go the way of POTC (minus the ships).  Everyone and their dog who likes it will have it already and there won't be much of a secondary market.  I wouldn't touch LOTR or the Hobbit for less than 50% off with a 10 foot pole.

[justafrog]

Hobbit is a tale for CHILDREN.

 

LOTR is a tale for teenagers and adults...

 

Did you ever read them both?

 

Did you notice any difference in the tale and story concept? 

 

This is not inaccurate, but a very large number of adult fantasy fans are happy to read tales for children and that will always, always, always be true - Madeleine L'Engle, JK Rowling, and about a billion of their talented author friends.

 

Hobbit fits well within the scope of what most adult fantasy readers love.

[El Guapo]

Yeah dude I get it. Read them both a bunch of times. My point is "I feel like the SETS are aimed at the same audience, have a ton in common and are basically the same theme." Where did story ever come into this? Most of the people buying these sets never read the books..and The Hobbit MOVIE (Which is what the sets are based on) is NOT for Children (well at least anymore then LOTR is).

[El Guapo]

 

This is not inaccurate, but a very large number of adult fantasy fans are happy to read tales for children and that will always, always, always be true - Madeleine L'Engle, JK Rowling, and about a billion of their talented author friends.

 

Hobbit fits well within the scope of what most adult fantasy readers love.

 

Yeah..take the Harry Potter series. Books 1-3 definitely childrens books...books 4-7 not so much. Guess we should separate these themes too. Wait...Hogwarts (Bag End) is the same the whole way through?

[adewar]

The only thing that makes me nervous about this theme is the fact that it seems to be very popular with other investors.  As such, I've tried to hold more of the less obvious sets.  The obvious sets (to me at least) are MoM, Helm's Deep and Orc Forge.  I have more MoM than I would like due to coming across so many at $54.  I'll have to build one - I hope my troll stands up!  

The less obvious ones I like are Unexpected Gathering, Barrel Escape, and even Goblin King at 50% off.  I'm glad to see some folks are down on the theme though.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

On topic: I love the Hobbit and LoTR sets. This is a iconic fantasy classic that crosses the "Lego" barrier right into "every fantasy geek, like, ever" market.

 

Off topic:

 

Sure he does. Just position his arms for balance, I stood mine up yesterday when we took photos of the fig to sell. I didn't try with the weapon though, maybe that throws him too far off?

 

Its the weapon. He can't hold it and not look like an idiot unless you want him to fall down.

[Studebricker]

I think the problem with the Hobbit movie and consequently, the Lego sets, is that it is being spread much too thin.  Jackson and co. have had to create a lot more non-book characters, conflicts, etc, to stretch the book into three movies -- whereas in LOTR the opposite was true, and they had to cut a lot out to make the film.

 

To me that translates into less interest in the Hobbit trilogy and less interest in Lego Hobbit sets.  I could be proven wrong, but I just don't see real enthusiasm for the Hobbit movies like I did for the LOTR movies.

[sadowsk1]

I like the title of the thread.  I don't like traffic.

[sadowsk1]

Its funny I have to keep saying - you can pick up unexpected gathering on Ebay for under $50 - there are no listings right now, but I have seen several:

 

http://www.ebay.com/itm/LEGO-The-Hobbit-An-Unexpected-Gathering-79003-Brand-New-Sealed-/281153142836?pt=Building_Toys_US&hash=item4176088034

 

This title reminded me of that Family guy episode where Peter just says:

 

I did not like the God Father.

The listing you provided with shipping it brings it up to Amazon.com prices.  I probably would go through them first.

[Spartikis]

No.  Star Wars has a proven track record.  The Hobbit does not.

well the older star wars sets did, most of whats released now isnt investment worthy.

[emes]

Evem at 30% off.  I've stumbled across a bunch of Escapes, Attack of Wars, Unexpected Gathering, Riddle for the Ring and Goblin King Battle at 30% off.  Picked up some but I'm returning them all minus the 2 Riddle for the Ring I bought.

 

Also not a believer in Mines of Moria.  I will probably keep 1 for myself but the rest are going back.  Even at 30%.

 

I think one thing valuable for you to consider is that a few sets or a theme not moving at your 1, 2, 5, or 10 local WalMarts (for example) is in no way an adequate indicator of performance in the overall domestic market, and certainly not representative of performance in a global market.

 

Additionally, while it's nice to buy things prior to EOL with a profit locked in, that's hard to do, and will not work with every theme. Bottom-line, in all of these purchases you're making a bet that at some point in the future the item will be worth significantly more than your purchase price. You might lose some of those bets, but I think you're safe with Hobbit and LOTR sets, especially at a 30% discount.

 

This thread title is a really good example of why some won't make it in the secondary market. It's not what "you" like that's important, it's what the market is willing to buy at the price you're charging.

[bg2001]

I think one thing valuable for you to consider is that a few sets or a theme not moving at your 1, 2, 5, or 10 local WalMarts (for example) is in no way an adequate indicator of performance in the overall domestic market, and certainly not representative of performance in a global market.

 

Additionally, while it's nice to buy things prior to EOL with a profit locked in, that's hard to do, and will not work with every theme. Bottom-line, in all of these purchases you're making a bet that at some point in the future the item will be worth significantly more than your purchase price. You might lose some of those bets, but I think you're safe with Hobbit and LOTR sets, especially at a 30% discount.

 

This thread title is a really good example of why some won't make it in the secondary market. It's not what "you" like that's important, it's what the market is willing to buy at the price you're charging.

 

I think I spelled out pretty clearly why I don't like the Hobbit as an investment.   A few others did a pretty good job here too.

 

Second, seeing excess inventory at approximately 30% off at 6+ big box retailers in a major market, on ebay, Amazon, and big box retailers online is a pretty good indicator of performance of the overall domestic market. 

[Sauromosis]

They DEFINITELY overproduced, but that doesn't mean it will be a bad investment.  Might just have to wait longer, like these Harry Potter sets that are on fire after 10 years.

[emes]

I think I spelled out pretty clearly why I don't like the Hobbit as an investment.   A few others did a pretty good job here too.

 

Second, seeing excess inventory at approximately 30% off at 6+ big box retailers in a major market, on ebay, Amazon, and big box retailers online is a pretty good indicator of performance of the overall domestic market. 

 

Good luck then! Sounds like you have it all figured out.

[Anakinisvader]

well the older star wars sets did, most of whats released now isnt investment worthy.

 

I second that for pretty much everything out there right now not just Star Wars.  CHIMA?  Really?

[Ed Mack]

I second that for pretty much everything out there right now not just Star Wars.  CHIMA?  Really?

They said that about Ninjago as well.  Sometimes the real winners are what the kids want, not what the adults think the kids should want. 

[Ronda]

They said that about Ninjago as well.  Sometimes the real winners are what the kids want, not what the adults think the kids should want. 

 

That would be tough to play with my kids if they like the sets I don't like  

 

Speaking of the Hobbit, this far I see Unexpected Gathering attractive for my own collection 'cause of dining setting - and a lot of green bricks.  I don't like the minifigures they've put in it besides Bilbo and Gandalf, but it doesn't matter if I find it at a good price.

 

Other sets?  I have enough of the castle-building elements, so probably no.

 

The set I would be excited to get would be a tavern if they ever make it.