The Anti-BrickPicker Effect

[Jackson]

Also, I think there is a large percentage of the population here that ascribes some kind of nobility to the term "investor", when in fact they are really just hard core LEGO fans that are using the "investor" angle as a way to justify why they are a 20, 30, or 40 year old dude that plays with LEGO.

 

 

 

Haha!  Comedy!

[emes]

Haha!  Comedy!

 

Oh I was serious. 

 

Nothing wrong with liking LEGO and enjoying it at any age, but playing with or collecting LEGO and being a steely-eyed investor that's focused on generating a return are often incompatible.

 

This is exactly what Grolim is saying in the 4x4 Crawler thread when he asked people if opening their is worth $500 (or whatever number it was) to them....

[Jackson]

Oh I was serious. 

 

Nothing wrong with liking LEGO and enjoying it at any age, but playing with or collecting LEGO and being a steely-eyed investor that's focused on generating a return are often incompatible.

 

Oh, I know.  The best drug dealers are the ones who have no interest in using the product.

[ExoBro94]

Oh I was serious. 

 

Nothing wrong with liking LEGO and enjoying it at any age, but playing with or collecting LEGO and being a steely-eyed investor that's focused on generating a return are often incompatible.

People collect all kinds of things at all points of their lives. Collecting LEGO for some is the same as old women who collect dolls. To each their own, and their should be no judgement.

[emes]

Collecting LEGO for some is the same as old women who collect dolls. To each their own, and their should be no judgement.

 

Yeah, I sell stuff to them too.

 

There is judgment involved, or else I wouldn't choose to feed their needs...

[spener90]

Oh I was serious. 

 

Nothing wrong with liking LEGO and enjoying it at any age, but playing with or collecting LEGO and being a steely-eyed investor that's focused on generating a return are often incompatible.

 

This is exactly what Grolim is saying in the 4x4 Crawler thread when he asked people if opening their is worth $500 (or whatever number it was) to them....

I like Lego and I am 23.  Nothing is wrong with that.  Although my building sets are much less in number then my investments.  

 

As for the Crawler, well I am struggling with the idea of building it.  Lego is a secondary hobby to travel.  And if it goes for $1000 soon, well that is a lot of potential travel!

[sadowsk1]

This isn't a bubble thread, I think I've been pretty clear about that.  For me, this site has had an impact on my purchasing, just not in the same direction it has for many others.  I still have a ton of stuff to sell and will continue to buy things to sell in the future, just not following the buying habits of the majority.  When I see posts about loading up on this or that, I will be running in the other direction.  

Lol, I know it wasn't started as a bubble thread.  I'm saying I'm looking forward to it evolving into one.

[redcell]

Couldn't agree more.  Selling on Ebay isn't as easy as people think.  You definitley need a system in place to sell effectively...The bottom line is you better enjoy it, cause it IS work and can sometimes be a PITA.  I just had a buyer open up a case cause he didn't get his item in a week....and another cause he claims the item was never received (tracking # says differently).  There are pitfalls everywhere on Ebay.

 

I am guessing, though, that some of the people with huge quantities will use Amazon or a fulfillment center, so they will pay higher fees but won't have all the headaches.  Anyone that is ammassing a ton of sets have any plans on doing this?

 

I've looked at FBA on Amazon, but the fees kill it for me.

[justafrog]

FBA isn't for me, either, and the main reason is I don't trust them to pack things. I get some doozy packages from Amazon, they can't be trusted with collectibles.

[Alcarin]

You (Original poster) explain exactly what i ''predicted'' long ago....

 

Soon (around 6-12 months from now on) we will see smart people faking their buying and make the majority buy something and them doing the exact opposite...

 

 

Example:

 

Everyone here says this will be great (set number whatever)

 

And the small majority agree of those reliable like emazers and others

 

And that minority buys something else that is overlooked and makes profit and majority suffers low returns.

 

Thats invitable to happen.

[El Guapo]

I like Lego and I am 23.  Nothing is wrong with that.  Although my building sets are much less in number then my investments.  

 

As for the Crawler, well I am struggling with the idea of building it.  Lego is a secondary hobby to travel.  And if it goes for $1000 soon, well that is a lot of potential travel!

There is a good test if you should sell at a certain price:

 

Would you BUY the Crawler for $1,000?  If you answer "no" then you should sell (for whatever price you decide...just using $1000 for this example)

[justafrog]

Soon (around 6-12 months from now on) we will see smart people faking their buying and make the majority buy something and them doing the exact opposite...

... snip...

Thats invitable to happen.

 

You're mostly wrong.

 

There will always be a few trolls and would-be amusing people who will intentionally try to steer others wrong on forums like these.

 

But the majority of site users on selling sites of this type, when they post advice, are actively trying to be helpful.

 

The trick with this as with any site is to learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff. There is plenty of bad advice, it's just coming from people with good intentions.

[Darth_Raichu]

You (Original poster) explain exactly what i ''predicted'' long ago....

 

Soon (around 6-12 months from now on) we will see smart people faking their buying and make the majority buy something and them doing the exact opposite...

 

 

Example:

 

Everyone here says this will be great (set number whatever)

 

And the small majority agree of those reliable like emazers and others

 

And that minority buys something else that is overlooked and makes profit and majority suffers low returns.

 

Thats invitable to happen.

 

Anyone who buys without doing their own due diligence deserves whatever outcomes 2 or 3 years down the road.

 

ETA: I think the above line applies not just to buying but life in general

[emes]

There is a good test if you should sell at a certain price:

 

Would you BUY the Crawler for $1,000?  If you answer "no" then you should sell (for whatever price you decide...just using $1000 for this example)

 

 

 

The trick with this as with any site is to learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff. There is plenty of bad advice, it's just coming from people with good intentions.

 

 

Anyone who buys without doing their own due diligence deserves whatever outcomes 2 or 3 years down the road.

 

ETA: I think the above line applies not just to buying but life in general

 

These posts should get an award.

[Alcarin]

You're mostly wrong.

 

There will always be a few trolls and would-be amusing people who will intentionally try to steer others wrong on forums like these.

 

But the majority of site users on selling sites of this type, when they post advice, are actively trying to be helpful.

 

The trick with this as with any site is to learn how to separate the wheat from the chaff. There is plenty of bad advice, it's just coming from people with good intentions.

 

 

Well lets be honest... while you might be 1000% true... you have to understand anyone even emazers telling us whats best to buy is like kicking his profits in return.... the less he tells us (or tells us wrong) the better for him... in the end everyone is out on the market for HIMSELF and himself only...

 

There is no good reason but naive generosity of people like emazers and others of giving info because its reducing their potential profits.

 

There is no better explanation... imagine if everyone bought as many sets as emazers and same as he buys... he would have to hold MUCH MUCH longer to make profit.

 

Its logical math.

 

 

 

 

There is a good test if you should sell at a certain price:

Would you BUY the Crawler for $1,000? If you answer "no" then you should sell (for whatever price you decide...just using $1000 for this example)

 

I have to say thats FAR FAR from logical really...

 

I would be willing to pay 350$ for Helm's Deep in LEGO but I would not be willing to pay 50$ for 4x4 Crawler...

 

is that a good test? No because each and everyone of us is INDIVIDUAL person and does not sresemble ANY market share overall. 

 

To me Friends are not worth 5$ (any set) but Castle from 1990s is worth 100$+

 

Its subjective and such irrelevant...

 

 

 

 

Anyone who buys without doing their own due diligence deserves whatever outcomes 2 or 3 years down the road.

ETA: I think the above line applies not just to buying but life in general

 

You are right Raichu, but same people help choose/tell others on this site what to do and were pretty unhappy or displeased when i told newcomers TO DO THEIR OWN RESEARCH.... isn't that illogical? when a new member comes to the site he is easily deceived by senior members (but they look helpful) instead i tell them take 2 days off and READ IT ALL to learn... then ask silly questions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Its quite obvious that what the thread creator (Mos Eisley) said is true to a degree....  I limited myself heavily (partly due to cash) because I see no bright future in LEGO investing.... LEGO investing as such I predict will last until 2020 then it will fall as a life cycle of all things to come. I hope I am wrong but i fear I might be even over generous.

 

I just hate seeing someone taking their lives for investing too much.

[Mos_Eisley]

 

 

I took your post as saying the equivalent of "lots of people have bad kids because they're bad parents, therefore I'm not going to have kids.

This is not where I'm coming from either.  In the end, it doesn't matter if the people here or wherever they are who are hoarding sets are good investors or bad, if a couple years from now there are hundreds of sealed XXXXX sets sitting on ebay, I just wasted my time with those sets.  Like I said, money can be made various ways with LEGO products and I've tried a lot of them.  For me, the only one that was worth the effort to me, with regard to regularly released sets,  was buying and holding for a while.  I already know I don't want to get involved with short term selling again and I don't think the way I feel comfortable doing business will be as profitable in the future, so that leaves me with just being less involved with the the buying and selling of regular releases.  I'm not trying to convince anyone else that they should do the same.  I'm just stating my feelings about the current and future marketplace.  Everyone else should be happy that they will have one less reseller to worry about when it comes time to unload their stash of Palace Cinemas.     

[segreto]

You should also consider the growth in the future interest of Lego (Market Potential).  This is all speculation, and that is all it will every be.  The more Lego expands and creates new markets, the larger the collector base will be.  I keep thinking about an article I read a month ago about a family who spent $100,000 on Beanie Babies, and ended up with nothing but crappy stuffed animals.  They actually invested the money from their children's college fund, hoping to double or triple it.  I think about that every time I buy a set for investment.

 

Lego has a few major differences, however: 1. We are able to purchase sets as deep discounts, if you know where and how to find them.  2. The bricks themselves have actual physical value.  People will always play and use Lego blocks, as something doesn't come along and take its place.  Looking at the Lego knockoffs, I don't think that is every going to happen.  3. Lego sets are not priced to sell as collectibles.  We can watch for a product and purchase it at normal retail price or below.  I do not think any Target, Walmart, or Lego.com will every sell an item at an increase because it is a 'collectable'.  We might not be able to get every set or LE set, but those sets will enter the market at a regular retail price.  4. And this is the big one for me:  I love playing with Lego sets, and I am 42.  My son and daughter love playing with Lego sets, and they are 2 and 10.  

 

Lastly, as a former stock market trader (Options), I see the risk inherent in purchasing something and losing money, maybe even everything.  To say something is a sure thing and will 100% assuredly make money is the fastest way to going broke.  That being said, let me add that I believe the worst vice is advice, and I never give it unless asked.  My reasons for collecting and investing in these products are my own, and I question them every time I purchase a set.  

 

Right now I only have 20+ sets set aside for investments, so my risk right now is negligible. If I do decide to amass 100+ sets for investment purposes, there will be much research and decision making hours taking up a portion of my time.  Right now, I enjoy it because I like Lego sets and I find the whole market interesting and something I want to invest both my time and money to.  

 

Here are some quick reads about Market Potential.  I see some usefulness in the analogous products, and it is an interesting concept to add to your buying/selling habits. 

 

About plants, but has a nice equation:

http://plantsforhumanhealth.ncsu.edu/extension/marketready/pdfs-ppt/business_development_files/PDF/estimating_market_potential.pdf

 

Bottom up and top down:

http://mpd.me/addressable-m-1/

 

Market size hypothesis:

http://ultralightstartups.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Steve-Blank-Market-Sizing.pdf

 

Another calculation:

http://www.marsdd.com/articles/estimating-the-market-size/

 

 

Good luck, and thanks for posting your ideas.  They made me think a lot more about choices I will have to eventually make.

[cohens714]

If you want out of this market then by all means get out.  There isn't a single person on this site that can tell what the future holds with this stuff so make your own decisions and by all means stop buying if you think it isn't worth it.  I do believe people on this site greatly overestimate their impact on Lego as a company and the secondary Lego market.  We are all barely a blip on the overall Lego market but there is no question that more people holding will impact the overall profit to be made by all of us.

[lowillsw]

I understand it's not the intent to turn this into a bubble thread.  From everyone who is voicing their opinions and concerns on this thread, it definitely sounds like it.

 

I consider myself a Lego speculator and don't consider myself an Lego investor at all.  If I'm a true investor I would be able to quantify my expected value of each set like I would with a share of stock.  When I invest in a company, I have the faith the company is honest about their current and be able to forecast future income and retain earnings.  I can't do that with a Lego set because most of us would agree Lego is a collectible.  We ask ourselves why we would or would not pay a certain dollar amount for a set.  How do we genuinely arrive to that certain dollar amount when we buy or sell a set?  It is based on each buyer putting in a vote of how much he/she will pay for a set or how much it is retailed.  It is because somebody paid a certain amount for it on Ebay for us to justify that value.   So some of us will call that person who pay $3,000 for a mint UCS Millennium Falcon an idiot or sucker.  Are we all speculators or suckers after all since we can't derive an actual value aside summing up what each element is worth on Brinklink?  Are we all just waiting for a greater fool to pay more than you did?

 

I definitely do agree with integrating investment principles when it comes with Lego or any collectibles.  We all have to have a plan when it come to buying and selling since we can only based on the crowd to realize a certain the dollar value of each set.  According to Warren Buffett, there are 3 I(s) to investing: The Innovator, The Imitator, and The Idiot.  We definitely don't want to be The Idiot when the value of all Lego sets come crashing down.   The moderator of this thread in summary discuss his contrarian stance staying away from excess speculation of certain set(s) discussed on this site.  Isn't that the definition of a bubble when there is excess speculation so he don't become The Idiot following the crowd? 

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

If you want out of this market then by all means get out.  There isn't a single person on this site that can tell what the future holds with this stuff so make your own decisions and by all means stop buying if you think it isn't worth it.  I do believe people on this site greatly overestimate their impact on Lego as a company and the secondary Lego market.  We are all barely a blip on the overall Lego market but there is no question that more people holding will impact the overall profit to be made by all of us.

 

Yes definitely. And I think at a certain point it all flattens out - it will be less lucrative for some and they will get out, whereas those of us who see it as a hobby and are fine with small profits will be fine.

 

Plus Lego is combating resellers which will push people out as well.

 

Another current advantage - used to be just about anyone could buy sets wholesale provided they bought a lot. not like that now - so we don't have to compete with those people.

 

Bottom line - want to limit how much this will hurt the market? As an investor, get as many people into Lego as possible. I have a friend at work and since I mentioned it to him and started pushing him - he has about 25 sets now. And he will never invest.

[RGriebling]

You should also consider the growth in the future interest of Lego (Market Potential).  This is all speculation, and that is all it will every be.  The more Lego expands and creates new markets, the larger the collector base will be.  I keep thinking about an article I read a month ago about a family who spent $100,000 on Beanie Babies, and ended up with nothing but crappy stuffed animals.  They actually invested the money from their children's college fund, hoping to double or triple it.  I think about that every time I buy a set for investment.

 

Lego has a few major differences, however: 1. We are able to purchase sets as deep discounts, if you know where and how to find them.  2. The bricks themselves have actual physical value.  People will always play and use Lego blocks, as something doesn't come along and take its place.  Looking at the Lego knockoffs, I don't think that is every going to happen.  3. Lego sets are not priced to sell as collectibles.  We can watch for a product and purchase it at normal retail price or below.  I do not think any Target, Walmart, or Lego.com will every sell an item at an increase because it is a 'collectable'.  We might not be able to get every set or LE set, but those sets will enter the market at a regular retail price.  4. And this is the big one for me:  I love playing with Lego sets, and I am 42.  My son and daughter love playing with Lego sets, and they are 2 and 10.  

 

Lastly, as a former stock market trader (Options), I see the risk inherent in purchasing something and losing money, maybe even everything.  To say something is a sure thing and will 100% assuredly make money is the fastest way to going broke.  That being said, let me add that I believe the worst vice is advice, and I never give it unless asked.  My reasons for collecting and investing in these products are my own, and I question them every time I purchase a set.  

 

Right now I only have 20+ sets set aside for investments, so my risk right now is negligible. If I do decide to amass 100+ sets for investment purposes, there will be much research and decision making hours taking up a portion of my time.  Right now, I enjoy it because I like Lego sets and I find the whole market interesting and something I want to invest both my time and money to.  

 

Here are some quick reads about Market Potential.  I see some usefulness in the analogous products, and it is an interesting concept to add to your buying/selling habits. 

 

About plants, but has a nice equation:

http://plantsforhumanhealth.ncsu.edu/extension/marketready/pdfs-ppt/business_development_files/PDF/estimating_market_potential.pdf

 

Bottom up and top down:

http://mpd.me/addressable-m-1/

 

Market size hypothesis:

http://ultralightstartups.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Steve-Blank-Market-Sizing.pdf

 

Another calculation:

http://www.marsdd.com/articles/estimating-the-market-size/

 

 

Good luck, and thanks for posting your ideas.  They made me think a lot more about choices I will have to eventually make.

The exact reason I have been reintroduced back into Lego.  My kids.  I have a 3 and a 5 year old, the five year old is playing with Lego's as I type.  This site, along with investing in bricks, is also a great way to get kids involved in how a market works.  The time spent building Lego's with my children is priceless, but allowing them to see how Lego's are invested in the future is educational in its own right.  

[justafrog]

There is no good reason but naive generosity of people like emazers and others of giving info because its reducing their potential profits.

 

There is no better explanation... imagine if everyone bought as many sets as emazers and same as he buys... he would have to hold MUCH MUCH longer to make profit.

 

Its logical math.

 

 

 

 

Emes has already provided the answer to this concern. It is easy as pie to go out and buy something for resale.

 

The hard work is in knowing what to buy, where to buy it, how much to pay, how to price it, whether to hold it or sell it now or later, where to sell it, how to work within the rules of those sales venues for success and longevity, how to provide great customer service, how to pack and ship, and how to reinvest a portion of the profits. AND you (generic seller you, not you Alcarin), have to learn how to do all that in an organized and methodical fashion so you're not just wasting your time.

 

Those of us already running full time or professional part-time businesses buying and selling know that most people just can't hack it for the long term. I've been doing this for almost 16 years now, eBay and other sites, professionally, both full time and part time. I could sit down with an auditorium full of 1000 people and tell them EXACTLY, step by step, every secret revealed, how to buy and sell books, and only 10 of them would ever end up making a profit and only 2 would be any real good at it.

 

Lego and anything else is the same. Generosity can be afforded because in the end it doesn't cost the real pros anything.

[Ed Mack]

I highly respect Mos Eisley and his opinions on LEGO investing.  He is a valued member on this site as indicated by his Moderator status and I know he speaks from experience.  His collection far exceeds mine and he is one person I always look to for wise tips and comments.  But don't let his perspective dampen your view on LEGO investing.

 

Mos Eisley is a "one percenter."  In other words, he owns more LEGO sets than 99% of the AFOL population.  He is at the top of the LEGO investment food chain.  So what's my point?  My point is that  Mos Eisley has been doing this for quite some time, long before it was coined "LEGO investing."  He has seen the days where any person with a pulse could buy an exclusive LEGO set and flip it quickly for a profit.  His point of view is an extreme one, from the very top, so his risks are greater than most on this site.   With LEGO investing becoming more mainstream, it would appear to be more difficult to make quick profits, so I cannot blame him for being at least slightly pessimistic on the future of LEGO investing.  But is the pessimism really warranted for the average investor?

 

One only has to look at the recent Minecraft and SE Crawler as examples of the health of LEGO investing.  I know that Mos Eisley is referring to other large sets, like the Fire Brigade and Tower Bridge, when he speaks of the market being saturated with sets.  In the "good ole' days," those sets would be easy peasy LEGO investment winners, but with the mass amounts in storage across the world, who knows what will happen to these sets after EOL.  Also, with more restrictive rules from retailers, it is harder for the big time investor like Mos Eisley to buy multiple exclusive LEGO sets at discounted prices.  

 

But for the average LEGO investor, buying 20 of each LEGO set is not practical.  There are ample opportunities to make nice profits if you choose under the radar sets and on a smaller scale.  Who would have thought that back in 2007 that a rather unimpressive $89.99 set called Market Street would end up selling for $1300 six years later?   Maybe a handful of people, but point is that there are still Market Streets out there, you just have to be the one who is smart enough to find them.   Many long term LEGO investors have been spoiled by huge and easy profits, but there are still plenty of new and RETIRED sets that are viable investments.

 

I wrote about the Toy Story Construct-a-Zurg yesterday.  A year ago, it was the set with the worst CAGR in the entire catalog of LEGO sets, yet over the last six months, it appreciated over 40%.  Some smart people might have bought a couple and made some quick money.  This is just one example of many potential great investments out there.  It might be a little more difficult to predict winners and losers now and to make a quick buck, but the possibility is still there.  

 

Now I know what you are saying...Ed Mack owns a LEGO investing site, so his positive outlook is self serving.  Well, there might be a smidgen of truth to that, but I also know the impression that everyone owns 50 Fire Brigades, Haunted Houses and Tower Bridges is an exaggerated one.  I know that the internet enables people to lie and stretch the truth.  The perception that many members on this site go out and buy 10, 20 or 30 of each set is contradicted by actual sales data we see from LEGO, Amazon and eBay.  Just because you hear LEGO profits are up again, doesn't necessarily mean it is because of resellers and investors.  

 

In no way is this response an anti-Mos Eisley one.  I just wanted to explain where he is coming from and that many of you are not in the same boat as he is.  The smaller investor has more options and less risk, but there is still room to hit a home run on occasion.  Good luck...

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

I highly respect Mos Eisley and his opinions on LEGO investing.  He is a valued member on this site as indicated by his Moderator status and I know he speaks from experience.  His collection far exceeds mine and he is one person I always look to for wise tips and comments.  But don't let his perspective dampen your view on LEGO investing.

 

Mos Eisley is a "one percenter."  In other words, he owns more LEGO sets than 99% of the AFOL population.  He is at the top of the LEGO investment food chain.  So what's my point?  My point is that  Mos Eisley has been doing this for quite some time, long before it was coined "LEGO investing."  He has seen the days where any person with a pulse could buy an exclusive LEGO set and flip it quickly for a profit.  His point of view is an extreme one, from the very top, so his risks are greater than most on this site.   With LEGO investing becoming more mainstream, it would appear to be more difficult to make quick profits, so I cannot blame him for being at least slightly pessimistic on the future of LEGO investing.  But is the pessimism really warranted for the average investor?

 

One only has to look at the recent Minecraft and SE Crawler as examples of the health of LEGO investing.  I know that Mos Eisley is referring to other large sets, like the Fire Brigade and Tower Bridge, when he speaks of the market being saturated with sets.  In the "good ole' days," those sets would be easy peasy LEGO investment winners, but with the mass amounts in storage across the world, who knows what will happen to these sets after EOL.  Also, with more restrictive rules from retailers, it is harder for the big time investor like Mos Eisley to buy multiple exclusive LEGO sets at discounted prices.  

 

But for the average LEGO investor, buying 20 of each LEGO set is not practical.  There are ample opportunities to make nice profits if you choose under the radar sets and on a smaller scale.  Who would have thought that back in 2007 that a rather unimpressive $89.99 set called Market Street would end up selling for $1300 six years later?   Maybe a handful of people, but point is that there are still Market Streets out there, you just have to be the one who is smart enough to find them.   Many long term LEGO investors have been spoiled by huge and easy profits, but there are still plenty of new and RETIRED sets that are viable investments.

 

I wrote about the Toy Story Construct-a-Zurg yesterday.  A year ago, it was the set with the worst CAGR in the entire catalog of LEGO sets, yet over the last six months, it appreciated over 40%.  Some smart people might have bought a couple and made some quick money.  This is just one example of many potential great investments out there.  It might be a little more difficult to predict winners and losers now and to make a quick buck, but the possibility is still there.  

 

Now I know what you are saying...Ed Mack owns a LEGO investing site, so his positive outlook is self serving.  Well, there might be a smidgen of truth to that, but I also know the impression that everyone owns 50 Fire Brigades, Haunted Houses and Tower Bridges is an exaggerated one.  I know that the internet enables people to lie and stretch the truth.  The perception that many members on this site go out and buy 10, 20 or 30 of each set is contradicted by actual sales data we see from LEGO, Amazon and eBay.  Just because you hear LEGO profits are up again, doesn't necessarily mean it is because of resellers and investors.  

 

In no way is this response an anti-Mos Eisley one.  I just wanted to explain where he is coming from and that many of you are not in the same boat as he is.  The smaller investor has more options and less risk, but there is still room to hit a home run on occasion.  Good luck...

 

Definitely agree. Easy example - Harry potter was being redone again just two years ago. Where is it now?

 

One of the best investments of the last two years...

[MartinP]

I highly respect Mos Eisley and his opinions on LEGO investing.  He is a valued member on this site as indicated by his Moderator status and I know he speaks from experience.  His collection far exceeds mine and he is one person I always look to for wise tips and comments.  But don't let his perspective dampen your view on LEGO investing.

 

Mos Eisley is a "one percenter."  In other words, he owns more LEGO sets than 99% of the AFOL population.  He is at the top of the LEGO investment food chain.  So what's my point?  My point is that  Mos Eisley has been doing this for quite some time, long before it was coined "LEGO investing."  He has seen the days where any person with a pulse could buy an exclusive LEGO set and flip it quickly for a profit.  His point of view is an extreme one, from the very top, so his risks are greater than most on this site.   With LEGO investing becoming more mainstream, it would appear to be more difficult to make quick profits, so I cannot blame him for being at least slightly pessimistic on the future of LEGO investing.  But is the pessimism really warranted for the average investor?

 

One only has to look at the recent Minecraft and SE Crawler as examples of the health of LEGO investing.  I know that Mos Eisley is referring to other large sets, like the Fire Brigade and Tower Bridge, when he speaks of the market being saturated with sets.  In the "good ole' days," those sets would be easy peasy LEGO investment winners, but with the mass amounts in storage across the world, who knows what will happen to these sets after EOL.  Also, with more restrictive rules from retailers, it is harder for the big time investor like Mos Eisley to buy multiple exclusive LEGO sets at discounted prices.  

 

But for the average LEGO investor, buying 20 of each LEGO set is not practical.  There are ample opportunities to make nice profits if you choose under the radar sets and on a smaller scale.  Who would have thought that back in 2007 that a rather unimpressive $89.99 set called Market Street would end up selling for $1300 six years later?   Maybe a handful of people, but point is that there are still Market Streets out there, you just have to be the one who is smart enough to find them.   Many long term LEGO investors have been spoiled by huge and easy profits, but there are still plenty of new and RETIRED sets that are viable investments.

 

I wrote about the Toy Story Construct-a-Zurg yesterday.  A year ago, it was the set with the worst CAGR in the entire catalog of LEGO sets, yet over the last six months, it appreciated over 40%.  Some smart people might have bought a couple and made some quick money.  This is just one example of many potential great investments out there.  It might be a little more difficult to predict winners and losers now and to make a quick buck, but the possibility is still there.  

 

Now I know what you are saying...Ed Mack owns a LEGO investing site, so his positive outlook is self serving.  Well, there might be a smidgen of truth to that, but I also know the impression that everyone owns 50 Fire Brigades, Haunted Houses and Tower Bridges is an exaggerated one.  I know that the internet enables people to lie and stretch the truth.  The perception that many members on this site go out and buy 10, 20 or 30 of each set is contradicted by actual sales data we see from LEGO, Amazon and eBay.  Just because you hear LEGO profits are up again, doesn't necessarily mean it is because of resellers and investors.  

 

In no way is this response an anti-Mos Eisley one.  I just wanted to explain where he is coming from and that many of you are not in the same boat as he is.  The smaller investor has more options and less risk, but there is still room to hit a home run on occasion.  Good luck...

I agree with you on everything you said. Since Lego investing is becoming more mainstream, people are trying it out, but many will stop because they cannot find the time, money, and energy to do it, so there would be some people trying it out, but out of those people only a few will actually want to continue investing. On another point, the larger investor has a LOT more risk involved. They have possibly thousands of dollars in Lego sets waiting to be sold for a profit. Being a smaller investor has its pros and cons. After all of this, Lego investing is hard, you have to have patience, money, time, and energy, to do it properly.