Star Wars CAGR

[MartinP]

I was just looking at the CAGR by theme and I noticed that the Star Wars CAGR for the theme had dropped significantly. The last time I checked, the CAGR was around 9%. Now the CAGR is 5.73%. Does this mean that the Star Wars theme will not be a good theme to invest in. I was checking some individual set CAGR and I noticed that a lot of sets dropped in value and in CAGR. I also heard that Ed Mack's collection lost $900 in Star Wars sets. I was wondering what everyone else thinks. Is this an indicator that Star Wars will not be good for investing in the future?

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

In general I think it means that Star Wars has lost steam and that the sets are so overmade and redone that it is starting to filter out great returns.

 

All it means is that you have to be more selective. You can't just buy any stars set and thing it is going to gain. You have to be selective. UCS sets, special sets, etc.

[MartinP]

In general I think it means that Star Wars has lost steam and that the sets are so overmade and redone that it is starting to filter out great returns.

 

All it means is that you have to be more selective. You can't just buy any stars set and thing it is going to gain. You have to be selective. UCS sets, special sets, etc.

Investing just gets harder and harder. I will have to invest in Lego Star Wars exclusives.

[Alcarin]

Hard to predict... I think LEGO investing with this TLG waging ''war'' on us will soon be kinda way way harder than before

[MartinP]

Hard to predict... I think LEGO investing with this TLG waging ''war'' on us will soon be kinda way way harder than before

Investing is becoming hard to predict. I saw that some of the worst themes for investing are making a comeback. Those themes are Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Toy Story, and Prince of Persia.

[Ed Mack]

I hoping that the new STAR WARS movies will stimulate these old SW LEGO sets...

[Guest eightbrick]

Investing is becoming hard to predict. I saw that some of the worst themes for investing are making a comeback. Those themes are Atlantis, Pharaoh's Quest, Toy Story, and Prince of Persia.

Well, they aren't necessarily out of the gate yet. Star Wars may be too successful for its own good, with so many sets and remakes people can just get a similar set without having to pay market prices. Also keep in mind that as time goes on, CAGR for a theme is bound to lower, especially when it has been around for over a decade.

[TheOrcKing]

One thing to consider is how many sets have come out recently and been added to the list of Star Wars. A whole lot of zeros will bring down the average of anything considerably. There also have been a handful of duds (even exclusives) which haven't really been worth diddly for a while. I'm seeing across the board of themes and their values many have gone down with a select few going up. The Star Wars theme has a humongous list of sets contributing to its overall CAGR; it's bound to take a hit when anything new comes along.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

One thing to consider is how many sets have come out recently and been added to the list of Star Wars. A whole lot of zeros will bring down the average of anything considerably. There also have been a handful of duds (even exclusives) which haven't really been worth diddly for a while. I'm seeing across the board of themes and their values many have gone down with a select few going up. The Star Wars theme has a humongous list of sets contributing to its overall CAGR; it's bound to take a hit when anything new comes along.

 

Exactly. We all know what sets to invest in at the top of the theme. There are ones where you just know they don't look good enough to do anything. The recent sith infiltrator, the Z-95 headhunter, etc.

[Grolim]

One thing to consider is how many sets have come out recently and been added to the list of Star Wars. A whole lot of zeros will bring down the average of anything considerably. 

 

 

I was just going to throw that out as well as a possible cause.  Plenty of newly released SW sets over the last few months.  The is an awful lot of SW sets available at retail and most have a negative CAGR due to retail discounting, so that pulls the Theme average down.

[El Guapo]

I was just going to throw that out as well as a possible cause.  Plenty of newly released SW sets over the last few months.  The is an awful lot of SW sets available at retail and most have a negative CAGR due to retail discounting, so that pulls the Theme average down.

Not trying to be argumentative....but....

 

We are looking at the theme as a whole.  MOST of the Star Wars sets that make up the theme are retired...unlike LOTR where over half are still on shelves, and the Hobbit that are ALL still on the shelves.  I think the SW theme is just stale.  I consider myself a pretty big fan...have shirts, toys, quote movies, etc.  But what the heck is that Bounty Hunter Assault Ship?  The Geonosian Cannon? Nope. Some random Jedi that was in the movie for 9 seconds' ship?  Nope. Even the Droid Escape doesn't excite me.  Tie fighter 4.0 or whatever number they are on.  I am going to buy some stuff at the store on Sept 1 so I can list that Clone Trooper on Day 1...but really none of the stuff available is very exciting for me (Okay the Gunship is COOL and for some reason I really like that desert skiff...just looks pretty spot on to me).

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Not trying to be argumentative....but....

 

We are looking at the theme as a whole.  MOST of the Star Wars sets that make up the theme are retired...unlike LOTR where over half are still on shelves, and the Hobbit that are ALL still on the shelves.  I think the SW theme is just stale.  I consider myself a pretty big fan...have shirts, toys, quote movies, etc.  But what the heck is that Bounty Hunter Assault Ship?  The Geonosian Cannon? Nope. Some random Jedi that was in the movie for 9 seconds' ship?  Nope. Even the Droid Escape doesn't excite me.  Tie fighter 4.0 or whatever number they are on.  I am going to buy some stuff at the store on Sept 1 so I can list that Clone Trooper on Day 1...but really none of the stuff available is very exciting for me (Okay the Gunship is COOL and for some reason I really like that desert skiff...just looks pretty spot on to me).

 

Yeah this is part of it - once they started making a bunch of stuff from the lesser known series, things got rough.

[comicblast]

As much of a SW fan as I am, I think it may be time to move onto other themes, like LoTR and beyond. SW has lost a lot of steam, and we can only hope that the movies in a few years will help stimulate some response amonst consumers. Until then, I'm leaning towards other themes, like LoTR, Creator, and other licensed themes.

[MartinP]

Not trying to be argumentative....but....

 

We are looking at the theme as a whole.  MOST of the Star Wars sets that make up the theme are retired...unlike LOTR where over half are still on shelves, and the Hobbit that are ALL still on the shelves.  I think the SW theme is just stale.  I consider myself a pretty big fan...have shirts, toys, quote movies, etc.  But what the heck is that Bounty Hunter Assault Ship?  The Geonosian Cannon? Nope. Some random Jedi that was in the movie for 9 seconds' ship?  Nope. Even the Droid Escape doesn't excite me.  Tie fighter 4.0 or whatever number they are on.  I am going to buy some stuff at the store on Sept 1 so I can list that Clone Trooper on Day 1...but really none of the stuff available is very exciting for me (Okay the Gunship is COOL and for some reason I really like that desert skiff...just looks pretty spot on to me).

I agree with you on all of that. As soon as there are sets that are less iconic, then you start losing popularity and sales. That is what is happening with some of the new sets. On another point, it is not just the new sets that are bringing the CAGR down. Some of the retired sets have gone down in value contributing to this effect.

[glucapg]

I hoping that the new STAR WARS movies will stimulate these old SW LEGO sets...

wise man

[El Guapo]

My son is gonna turn 6 in September.  He wants a Star Wars Lego party...he is also planning on being Darth Maul for Halloween, for the 3rd straight year LOL.

 

I am sure that Lego is more then happy with how Star Wars is doing...do they care that the Sail Barge from 8 years ago took a hit in CAGR because a new one got released?  Nope.

 

I think there is a ton of great source material to come up with some really cool playsets...(Aunt Beru/Uncle Owen's compound complete with skeletons anyone?) but they don't have to.  Just keep cranking out X-Wings and Tie Fighters with the occasional Clone Wars set thrown in.

 

BTW...joking about the skeletons.  Realize it'd never happen.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

As much of a SW fan as I am, I think it may be time to move onto other themes, like LoTR and beyond. SW has lost a lot of steam, and we can only hope that the movies in a few years will help stimulate some response amonst consumers. Until then, I'm leaning towards other themes, like LoTR, Creator, and other licensed themes.

 

I am doing this too. But I think there are definitely some sets that are worth looking at. Jabba and the rancor pit, and the Falcon are worth the chance provided you get a good deal.  You just have to be a little more picky.

[exciter1]

I hoping that the new STAR WARS movies will stimulate these old SW LEGO sets...

 

Being a Star Wars fan and attending Celebration III in 2005, the hype around "Revenge of the Sith" was tremendous and it rode the wave into all types of marketing.  Star Wars toys really had another rebirth then (like they did with POTF and the Special Editions in 1995) and Hasbro has been hashing/rehashing stuff for the last 10 years.  I think the Lego Star Wars theme rode that wave as well until about 2010.  As much as I love and loath the "Clone Wars" series, interest in Star Wars has waned the past few years.  I hope we have another rebirth with the new movies.  We'll wait and see...

[glucapg]

what about the scandal of 9516? no more scandal, no more quick EOL? 

[Darth Nader]

The reason behind this, like others have mentioned, is that Lego has made too many un-necessary redesigns. Many sets out there are still great for investment, you just have to know which ones.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Another big part of it is the ships they have made that weren't a big part of the movies. And several of them have just been sub par.

[beeblet65]

lets not forget about the B-Wing - that is a big part for the drop!

[Grolim]

Not trying to be argumentative....but....

 

We are looking at the theme as a whole.  MOST of the Star Wars sets that make up the theme are retired...unlike LOTR where over half are still on shelves, and the Hobbit that are ALL still on the shelves.  I think the SW theme is just stale.  I consider myself a pretty big fan...have shirts, toys, quote movies, etc.  But what the heck is that Bounty Hunter Assault Ship?  The Geonosian Cannon? Nope. Some random Jedi that was in the movie for 9 seconds' ship?  Nope. Even the Droid Escape doesn't excite me.  Tie fighter 4.0 or whatever number they are on.  I am going to buy some stuff at the store on Sept 1 so I can list that Clone Trooper on Day 1...but really none of the stuff available is very exciting for me (Okay the Gunship is COOL and for some reason I really like that desert skiff...just looks pretty spot on to me).

 

Very good points, have an upvote

 

Your feelings on the SW theme seem to be exactly the same as mine.  Big fan, but once they went down the Clone Wars, expanded universe, and scraping the bottom of the barrel for ships no one really knows or cares about then I lost interest as well.  I've sold off almost my whole SW collection and moved into LOTR.  I think this lack of great recent sets (compared to the past) have resulted in some of the lower theme average results we see.

 

You still have to take care when comparing CAGR by theme.  The retired set vs current set ratio does play a big part.  As do things like comparing a theme with 25 sets like LOTR/Hobbit against one with hundreds like SW.  The LOTR set average is influenced a lot more by something like the Mirkwood Elf polybag with 170% CAGR.  A true fair comparison would take out retail sets and would also perhaps look at weighted average CAGR and not just the raw average.

[TheOrcKing]

Big fan, but once they went down the Clone Wars, expanded universe, and scraping the bottom of the barrel for ships no one really knows or cares about then I lost interest as well.

My response is not directed at you specifically; I just think it's funny how one minute we complain about seeing the same familiar spaceships time over again and yet at the same time have disdain when something different comes along. Guys, make up your mind. It can't exactly be both all the time. I'm okay with something we have seen before every now and again but most of the time I enjoy seeing something fresh like the Bounty Hunter Assault Gunship or TIE Defender or Z-95 Headhunter. It keeps things interesting.