79007 - Battle at the Black Gate

[mudcatsfan]

I have to say that I agree with what everyone has said in the last 10 or so posts, both for and against the LOTR theme.

 

The LOTR theme has disappointed investment-wise so far, but it's too early to define it a failure IMO.  Bricketycricket is right to question whether the steep discounts on a number of sets  because of a lack of sales currently will lead to poor secondary sales in the future.  The current Lego buyers that are into LOTR have likely purchased their sets and won't be buyers in the future given no new sets on the horizon.

 

However, from my own point of view, I'm also a collector who just got back into Legos.  My primary interest is Star Wars, but have also started buying LOTR sets after watching the movies again recently.  So, I've purchased the available sets from retailers currently available (or that were available) to add to my collection.  I've also started looking at ebay and other places to get the first-wave sets I've missed out on, such as Helms Deep, Orc Forge, etc...  I missed them at their big discounts on clearance, but it doesn't make me less interested in them, especially if I can get them just above MSRP currently on good deals.

 

If the entire theme is gone after the last Hobbit line, then secondary markets have a chance to take advantage of the people like me who missed out when the sets were available and that want them when they get into the hobby over the next few years.  Few people currently buying, other than investors, know that Black Gate was available for $18, $22, or $29 on clearance over the past year if they are just starting to buy into the theme over the next year when Black Gate is gone, or mostly gone, from retailers.  I picked up two from Target recently for $41.99, which is a 30% discount off the $59.99 MSRP, and thought wasn't a bad deal until I heard of the earlier clearance prices.

 

This post is exactly why i think (most) LOTR will do well, but not until they're all gone.

 

Future buyers won't care whether something was once 29 on clearance, they'll see a set with 600 pieces and exclusive figures, and they'll figure well that was 69 retail, and i can't find it anywhere so i'm stuck paying 99 (or much more).

 

As to the point about it being clearanced because it didnt sell well.............THAT"S GREAT for future sales. If it didnt sell well, that means there's less of them out there in the wild.

 

I WILL agree that many of the LOTR sets lack cool display ability that star wars sets have. Lego seems to translate best to vehicles and buildings, but not vast expanses of walking (LOTR burn right there). Many of the LOTR locations are not distinctive enough, or far too big to capture in brick. I do think that they make up for that with outstanding mini figs. And as i mentioned, i'm not saying the whole line will do well, but many will.

 

So combine a line that has 75 years worth of fans (thus far), a line that likely was not produced in huge numbers (since we're all saying it didnt sell well), and has fans with disposable income.

 

My LOTR was all purchased at between 25-70% off so i can break even right now even after fees, shipping, etc. I'm not trying to convince any of you guys to buy from me, My future customers are hopefully working on their website or waiting in line for the Hobbit, or perfecting their elf ear prosthetics right now. ANYTHING but reading this forum and realizing they can get amazing LOTR legos for less than retail right now, but will have to pay 2x that 2 years from now.

Edited December 21, 2014 by mudcatsfan

[templesweeper]

Since the sets aren't worth that much, anyone want to sell me a Helm's Deep at MSRP?  I mean, the theme is a bomb so I'll help you out. 

[justapilgrim]

On topic

Aragon $10

Mouth of sauron w horse $15-17

Orc X2 $10

Eagle $15

Gandolf $12

Black gate $30

If you got at $40 you can double up right now if you are patient and part it out.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app

[bricketycricket]

This post is exactly why i think (most) LOTR will do well, but not until they're all gone.

 

Future buyers won't care whether something was once 29 on clearance, they'll see a set with 600 pieces and exclusive figures, and they'll figure well that was 69 retail, and i can't find it anywhere so i'm stuck paying 99 (or much more).

 

As to the point about it being clearanced because it didnt sell well.............THAT"S GREAT for future sales. If it didnt sell well, that means there's less of them out there in the wild.

 

I WILL agree that many of the LOTR sets lack cool display ability that star wars sets have. Lego seems to translate best to vehicles and buildings, but not vast expanses of walking (LOTR burn right there). Many of the LOTR locations are not distinctive enough, or far too big to capture in brick. I do think that they make up for that with outstanding mini figs. And as i mentioned, i'm not saying the whole line will do well, but many will.

 

So combine a line that has 75 years worth of fans (thus far), a line that likely was not produced in huge numbers (since we're all saying it didnt sell well), and has fans with disposable income.

 

My LOTR was all purchased at between 25-70% off so i can break even right now even after fees, shipping, etc. I'm not trying to convince any of you guys to buy from me, My future customers are hopefully working on their website or waiting in line for the Hobbit, or perfecting their elf ear prosthetics right now. ANYTHING but reading this forum and realizing they can get amazing LOTR legos for less than retail right now, but will have to pay 2x that 2 years from now.

See, I agree that 2x in 2 years is theoretically plausible. But it requires a bit of a leap of faith, whereas putting that money into stuff like AA, R2, SSD, etc. required no such leap and likely less time to see bigger gains. Sure, hindsight is 20/20 but at least the demand for Star Wars et al is proven.

[Lmhelmick]

Just bought one of these sets off amazon after seeing they're sold out on the lego website.

[hermez]

Usually just lurking around, so yay - my first post!

 

Anybody ordered 79007 in the German SAH when it was on sale and still available? I ordered mine on Jan 1 and it still says "Not in stock - more on the way". Same with 10245 BTW

 

Any chance this order will be fulfilled?

[MarleyMoose]

Not sure, welcome to the site though!

[Ciglione]

Usually just lurking around, so yay - my first post!

 

Anybody ordered 79007 in the German SAH when it was on sale and still available? I ordered mine on Jan 1 and it still says "Not in stock - more on the way". Same with 10245 BTW

 

Any chance this order will be fulfilled?

 

I got an email from Lego today and it said my outstanding orders are to be cancelled due to a stock software error. The orders included two 79007's and a Santa's Workshop. They would send me the details soon which would be cancelled. Lets wait and see.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Ciglione

[hermez]

Thx guys - received the same email yesterday afternoon. Bummer.

[Bernard74]

They said your orders were outstanding? I never get any compliments from Lego ;)

Edited January 20, 2015 by Bernard74

[Ciglione]

They said your orders were outstanding? I never get any compliments from Lego

 

I was wondering if you would catch this.

[Ciglione]

Order 1 of 2 cancelled by Lego today.

[JoshTX]

I only purchased one black gate, only ever found one on clearance. I may end up letting it go, because if I was going to build it I wanted to get at least two to try to make a bigger gate and make it look more realistic. I'm definitely not enthusiastic enough about it to pay at or above MSRP.

[c666187]

I only purchased one black gate, only ever found one on clearance. I may end up letting it go, because if I was going to build it I wanted to get at least two to try to make a bigger gate and make it look more realistic. I'm definitely not enthusiastic enough about it to pay at or above MSRP.

Wow, i havent seen you in a while. Good to see you here JoshTX..

[justapilgrim]

I've parted some of my clearance ones out, you can buy just the gate for $20 if you looo

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[JoshTX]

Wow, i havent seen you in a while. Good to see you here JoshTX..

 

Thanks. I've been bouncing in and out, still buying Lego, but I'm in the final semester of school for my Bachelor's program and the classes and family life are taking up way too much time to log in here as much as I want to. I can't wait till it's over, "higher education" is killing me.

[tonysbricks]

Thanks. I've been bouncing in and out, still buying Lego, but I'm in the final semester of school for my Bachelor's program and the classes and family life are taking up way too much time to log in here as much as I want to. I can't wait till it's over, "higher education" is killing me.

Not to be Debbie Downer but after working a professional job for a few years you will look back and say "wow, I had a lot of free time in college". Enjoy the experience my man and do not rush it.

[JoshTX]

Not to be Debbie Downer but after working a professional job for a few years you will look back and say "wow, I had a lot of free time in college". Enjoy the experience my man and do not rush it.

 

Community college felt that way, but now I'm an over the hill 36 year old going back for the 4 year degree because I got the GI bill. I see what you mean though, I would rather just spend time with the kids for the most part nowadays, but the degree became necessary, being a vet only goes so far without the education.

[Hayttees]

Thanks. I've been bouncing in and out, still buying Lego, but I'm in the final semester of school for my Bachelor's program and the classes and family life are taking up way too much time to log in here as much as I want to. I can't wait till it's over, "higher education" is killing me.

The biggest problem with higher education is that education never ends

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[nolanfan34]

Some possible weird eBay -> Amazon arbitrage coming soon...(US)

[jaisonline]

7 minutes ago, nolanfan34 said:

Some possible weird eBay -> Amazon arbitrage coming soon...(US)

What do you mean?    You seeing buy and sell trends?

[nolanfan34]

Just now, jaisonline said:

What do you mean?    You seeing buy and sell trends?

Just weird that there are only 14 sellers on Amazon, and the buy price could jump to $160 if the $119 seller sells out. I'm sure volume is low. On eBay they are going for $80-ish still. 

Basically I'm bored and looking around at sets in my office. :-)

[Jackson]

There are two listings on Amazon for the Black Gate set. The other listing has 33 sellers; the buy box is $108.58.

[nolanfan34]

19 minutes ago, Jackson said:

There are two listings on Amazon for the Black Gate set. The other listing has 33 sellers; the buy box is $108.58.

That is weird, I can't get that one to come up. Have searched on a few terms, will try again. Mods feel free to delete these lol.

[Jackson]

17 minutes ago, nolanfan34 said:

That is weird, I can't get that one to come up. Have searched on a few terms, will try again. Mods feel free to delete these lol.

You are right. That listing is hard to find via the search. It is clickable in the "Customers who viewed this item also viewed" section of the listing you first posted about.

This is irritating because my sets are stuck at FBA on the hard-to-find listing.

Doesn't make sense why it is not appearing in the search results. It has 88 customer reviews, more sellers, and a better sales rank. Amazon's catalog is an awful mess.