Why has the POTC theme failed to appreciate in value?

[StarCityBrickCompany]

When this theme was announced it seemed like it would be a sure winner.

[401G]

There are a small handful of reasons why POTC has not appreciated...yet. 1. The sets are just now entering the end of the production cycle, but most are still widely available on discount. 2. The co-marketing that takes place between a movie and a toy line is only as effective as the movie is popular. Noting that, the movie was released in May 2011, eons ago for the public attention span. The sets saw an initial demand, but have continued to slide in popularity since then. 3. The general public is not aware of the volume of units LEGO will produce of any given set, however, one can reasonably conclude that since they have been on discount pretty much since the movie advertising waned that production vastly exceeded demand. It will be a long while before POTC appreciates. 401G

[Ed Mack]

There are a small handful of reasons why POTC has not appreciated...yet.

1. The sets are just now entering the end of the production cycle, but most are still widely available on discount.

2. The co-marketing that takes place between a movie and a toy line is only as effective as the movie is popular. Noting that, the movie was released in May 2011, eons ago for the public attention span. The sets saw an initial demand, but have continued to slide in popularity since then.

3. The general public is not aware of the volume of units LEGO will produce of any given set, however, one can reasonably conclude that since they have been on discount pretty much since the movie advertising waned that production vastly exceeded demand.

It will be a long while before POTC appreciates.

401G

Excellent points. I think it's a little early to expect the POTC theme to appreciate. These sets are still getting discounted and the old inventory sold, so there is no reason to see them increase in value. The POTC theme has two potential big gainers IMO, the 4184 Black Pearl and 4195 Queen Anne's Revenge.

[sgoldham]

I hope you are right Ed, because I picked up a couple of both.

[Ed Mack]

I hope you are right Ed, because I picked up a couple of both.

You can take that to the bank! LOL...I hope I'm right. Ships, like trains, usually do well in the secondary market.

[StarCityBrickCompany]

Yes - It seems like everyone (including Lego) thought this would sell huge. I personaly never loaded up on them, but would have thought that I would have. It seemed like the discounts started right away & never stopped - so I never pulled the trigger. Even the new minifigs listed alone on eBay never really took off.

[Doofy McGee]

I expect the PotC sets to experience a resurgence when the next movie comes out. The franchise itself is pretty big, so when it is back in the public eye due to a new movie, it should work out well for the LEGO sets. It may not lead to huge gains by any means, but it will sure make the sets look better than they do right now.

[Spartikis]

The POTC theme is just about retires, both ships are sold out. on a side note they are making a 5th movie and Johnny Depp has already signed up for the movie. not sure if they will bring the theme back or just let it die. Either way will cause the old sets to appreciate in value significantly IMO.

[Brickmythic]

The answer is simple. its not even EOL yet. Its just starting to EOL. Potc was intended as a short cycle much like Prince of Persia. Disney can only have a limited number of Licensed lego themes. Marvel is a Disney Property now. From Lego's perspective PotC Lego was successful. Black Pearl maintained a top seller status on amazon.com its entire production run and was rarely discounted outside of Walmart and Target clearances. I could see this being a valid question 1-2 years from now for sure. Other than a few sleepers and select Harry Potter sets, PotC QAR and BP are probably the easiest money some of us will make next few years.