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Retiring Soon - open speculation


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Time for me to dump my LOTR for 7965's. :D

Not so fast.  I really don't think LEGO will replace this set with another similar set.in size and pieces.  It is time for this set to retire and recent events indicate that it will retire, but like any set, does that mean retiring this November or next May? 

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If the new MF is a bigger, better, and updated version of 7965 in the $200 range, then 7965 is doomed.

Yes, if the new set is in the low $200 range, it will be doomed.  If it is another UCS set or large playset in the $400 range, it will have less effect.  Regardless, there will be a new Falcon coming out, so one of the older sets(7965, 10179) will be affected in positive or negative ways, depending on the new set's size.

 

Hey, it can be a 3000 piece, $300 set and everyone is happy...

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I never felt good about accumulating a large number of 7965s but there we some good deals on these over the past 12 months so I'm sure most savvy investors will do well.  Unfortunately I wasn't so savvy and ended up with my goal/limit before the Amazon BOGO which was a great deal.

 

Hopefully the new Falcon is unique enough to make both solid investments down the road.  

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It's hard to see why LEGO would release a $300 set to paid with the current $12 75030 set, thus leaving a HUGE price gap for one of the most iconic Star Wars toys.  There would be huge demand for something bigger/better than 75030, and smaller than a $300 set.  For example something in the $70-$120 range, like that where the current 7965 set resides.  For them to leave that price point open for any extended period of time would be pretty silly.  

 

Having a $350-$500 UCS variant to pair with a $70 model does seem feasible, but would they release two at the same time?  Seems unlikely.

 

Lots of conjecture, blah blah, just retire the 7965 already.

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According to current trends that is a very likely outcome, being around $300-350 and 10-13 minifigs.

 

I would prefer it if the rumored UCS MF was just the ship itself. I would rather it not have any minifigures and have a lower price point. But with how 10221 was released, I don't think that's going to happen. I still can't believe they released that set with a tiny bridge and figures. SMH  I might be in the minority with that thinking though.

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Enlighten me please.

The MF 4504 with 985 pcs released in 2004 (10 years ago) for $100,  its currently est. value here is $188.

That is a piss poor return.

What was wrong with that set?

Will the current MF 7965 go down the same path?  

6212 is another example of this effect.  You take a big risk buying a set that Lego tries to always have in production in one form or another.

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Enlighten me please.

The MF 4504 with 985 pcs released in 2004 (10 years ago) for $100,  its currently est. value here is $188.

That is a piss poor return.

What was wrong with that set?

Will the current MF 7965 go down the same path?  

 

Yep. Never buy a MF at MSRP. The returns aren't worth it. But if you bought a 4504 for say $60 when they were out, $188 ain't so bad. I will still buy 7965, as long as they are $40+ below msrp. Which is not that hard to find right now.

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If I am lego exec, I would release new MF in $400 - 600 range to take advantage of the secondary market value of 10179. First, there will be a lot of AFOL who will buy as the new UCS MF is "only" a tenth of value of 10179. Second, this would push the price envelop of new lego sets so that lego can gradually raise the prices of the new range of lego products. Once people see a highly desirable $499 new UCS MF, then any $300 UCS set will look affordable in comparison.

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If I am lego exec, I would release new MF in $400 - 600 range to take advantage of the secondary market value of 10179. First, there will be a lot of AFOL who will buy as the new UCS MF is "only" a tenth of value of 10179. Second, this would push the price envelop of new lego sets so that lego can gradually raise the prices of the new range of lego products. Once people see a highly desirable $499 new UCS MF, then any $300 UCS set will look affordable in comparison.

 

I had so many chances to buy that MF back in the day. I will not make that mistake again.

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