Retiring Soon - open speculation

[ponderingzissou]

Brickset now has Daily Bugle retiring Dec 2023

[fossilrock]

 

42 minutes ago, mlc3423 said:

That's the boat i'm in.....I do lego mostly part time (Main thing i sell is records and baseball cards) and space is of the essence.....Looking to build a garage or pole barn next year cause i refuse to get anymore storage units....I'm sure like  most of you i dropped big $$$ on storage units for years and years

The set i wanna go deep in is Mos Eisley Cantina but i'm afraid it'll get delayed again like it did this year

I am a hobby seller as well.  I started by investing in a lot of architecture, star wars, and jurassic world sets.   Basically, over time, i've quit buying so many small sets, and just buy the bigger sets and hold them for about 5 years.  In 2018, I moved across the country, and my house size went from having a large shed where i'd store my stock, to living in a much smaller dwelling without a shed, so I ended up cutting my stock considerably and quit investing for about 4 years.  Now I live in New Mexico and have a decent size storage area, so i'm able to stock up on sets again.  

Personally, i've found that the large sets produce better profit margins than having a ton of smaller sets.  So, i'd rather spend my money on modulars, fairground themes, and basically sets from the icon range than invest in so many smaller sized sets.  So many themes are duds anymore.

Also, I think the Cantina will do well.  All the Master Builder series sets like the death star, ewok village, assault on hoth, cloud city, etc have all gone above 3x over RRP.  Assault on Hoth was panned by the community but it's now going for around 600 to 700.00.  Cloud City is over a grand, and so is the Death Star.   Death Star had a long shelf life, but Assault on Hoth and and Cloud City had only a couple years shelf life. So, I agree with buying the larger sets and holding them for about 5 years.  You dont need to buy as much and compete with the hoard at walmart *(even though that game can be fun).  

[raindog]

Man, this investing is really cylindrical.  When I started 12-14 years ago, modulars were a super hot investment.  Then, about the time of the Pet Shop, they became ice cold.  Now, the "gurus" (that were Funko Pop gurus three years ago) are raving about what a hot commodity modulars are.  The same with set size and hold time.  I've always been an investor in large sets.  And BTW, I consider anyone waiting until the last possible moment to buy and then selling at a certain ROI, say 200%, a speculator, not an investor.  But, as an investor that preached "go deep over the life of the set, to find the best prices" and suggesting that larger sets weren't hoarded as bad as small one, you would have thought that I was suggesting that I violate their grandmothers (and I am old enough to do it too!)  It's funny that, what is old, is new.  And life goes on......

[exciter1]

2 hours ago, BrickStanley74 said:

 

Nice Emazer reference 😁. Whatever happened to that guy??

He still sells some stuff, mostly horror. He pretty much got out of LEGO a year or two before COVID.

[gmpirate]

17 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

 

I am a hobby seller as well.  I started by investing in a lot of architecture, star wars, and jurassic world sets.   Basically, over time, i've quit buying so many small sets, and just buy the bigger sets and hold them for about 5 years.  In 2018, I moved across the country, and my house size went from having a large shed where i'd store my stock, to living in a much smaller dwelling without a shed, so I ended up cutting my stock considerably and quit investing for about 4 years.  Now I live in New Mexico and have a decent size storage area, so i'm able to stock up on sets again.  

Personally, i've found that the large sets produce better profit margins than having a ton of smaller sets.  So, i'd rather spend my money on modulars, fairground themes, and basically sets from the icon range than invest in so many smaller sized sets.  So many themes are duds anymore.

Also, I think the Cantina will do well.  All the Master Builder series sets like the death star, ewok village, assault on hoth, cloud city, etc have all gone above 3x over RRP.  Assault on Hoth was panned by the community but it's now going for around 600 to 700.00.  Cloud City is over a grand, and so is the Death Star.   Death Star had a long shelf life, but Assault on Hoth and and Cloud City had only a couple years shelf life. So, I agree with buying the larger sets and holding them for about 5 years.  You dont need to buy as much and compete with the hoard at walmart *(even though that game can be fun).  

really, hard to miss on anything if you are wiling to wait 5+ years . . .

[fossilrock]

3 minutes ago, raindog said:

Man, this investing is really cylindrical.  When I started 12-14 years ago, modulars were a super hot investment.  Then, about the time of the Pet Shop, they became ice cold.  Now, the "gurus" (that were Funko Pop gurus three years ago) are raving about what a hot commodity modulars are.  The same with set size and hold time.  I've always been an investor in large sets.  And BTW, I consider anyone waiting until the last possible moment to buy and then selling at a certain ROI, say 200%, a speculator, not an investor.  But, as an investor that preached "go deep over the life of the set, to find the best prices" and suggesting that larger sets weren't hoarded as bad as small one, you would have thought that I was suggesting that I violate their grandmothers (and I am old enough to do it too!)  It's funny that, what is old, is new.  And life goes on......

With modulars, how long they've been on the shelf matters.  The sets that have retired under 3 years tend to do well, while the sets that have been out for 5 years or so only see a spike under 2x.  That's why I assume Police Station will do much better than Assembly Square. 

[raindog]

 

17 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

while the sets that have been out for 5 years or so only see a spike under 2x.

I tend to think that way a lot but, I am constantly reminded about how the T1 VW Van went 2x almost immediately after retirement and how well 75159 is doing.  As for someone else stating that holding a set over 5 years after retirement will always produce a winner, allow me to introduce to you just one DC Comic set that I have tubs of.  I hate DC sets!
 

Retired 10 years and still just barely at 1.5x msrp.  I have other DC examples.........

Edited December 10, 2023 by raindog

[fuzzy_bricks]

That was a sure fire winner back in the day. 

[fossilrock]

28 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

really, hard to miss on anything if you are wiling to wait 5+ years . . .

Three words - Disney Star Wars!   Star Wars sets before disney took over didn't take much effort to make money off waiting to sell them a year or two after retirement.  Today, that's not as much of the case.  About 3/4 of the Star Wars theme that lego produces is garbage.   So, it's not like it used to be.  It's much more challenging today than it used to be.  That's why I'd rather just buy icons sets (that haven't been rehased, or remade) and hold them for a while, and stay clear of star wars.  I've taken haircuts on disney star wars sequel trilogy sets.

 

[mlc3423]

2 hours ago, ponderingzissou said:

Brickset now has Daily Bugle retiring Dec 2023

Everywhere else still shows show retiring December 2024

[Sozial]

1 hour ago, raindog said:

 

I tend to think that way a lot but, I am constantly reminded about how the T1 VW Van went 2x almost immediately after retirement and how well 75159 is doing.  As for someone else stating that holding a set over 5 years after retirement will always produce a winner, allow me to introduce to you just one DC Comic set that I have tubs of.  I hate DC sets!
 

Retired 10 years and still just barely at 1.5x msrp.  I have other DC examples.........

I think we are not allowed to post that image here. Just remindes me of pain!

[Billy Brick]

3 minutes ago, Sozial said:

I think we are not allowed to post that image here. Just remindes me of pain!

I feel like I doubled my money on those somehow, but I only had like 5.

[skinsfan0521]

1 minute ago, Billy Brick said:

I feel like I doubled my money on those somehow, but I only had like 5.

I did really well on mine. I bought them during some sale from Macy's for like 70% off msrp. I had like 100 or so and 2x or 3x my money on them. 

Goes to show that the buy in cost is the most important factor to making money in the LEGO game. 

[ponderingzissou]

12 minutes ago, mlc3423 said:

Everywhere else still shows show retiring December 2024

Yes. I'm seeing the same. Only Brickset has Daily Bugle retiring Dec 2023. Curious to see if it sticks until Dec 2024 or if others will update and change to Dec 2023 also

[Billy Brick]

8 minutes ago, ponderingzissou said:

Yes. I'm seeing the same. Only Brickset has Daily Bugle retiring Dec 2023. Curious to see if it sticks until Dec 2024 or if others will update and change to Dec 2023 also

Logically they wouldn't retire it as its boosted by the avenger tower. Also sales and stock have been telling that this is going nowhere. Bricktap had this at 2025.

Edited December 10, 2023 by Billy Brick

[raindog]

1 hour ago, fuzzy_bricks said:

That was a sure fire winner back in the day. 

What day was that because I sure as heck don't remember it?  

[Pseudoty]

23 minutes ago, raindog said:

What day was that because I sure as heck don't remember it?  

He meant: “Everyone THOUGHT it would be a sure fire winner back in the day”

Edited December 10, 2023 by Pseudoty

[redcell]

4 hours ago, raindog said:

 

I tend to think that way a lot but, I am constantly reminded about how the T1 VW Van went 2x almost immediately after retirement and how well 75159 is doing.  As for someone else stating that holding a set over 5 years after retirement will always produce a winner, allow me to introduce to you just one DC Comic set that I have tubs of.  I hate DC sets!
 

Retired 10 years and still just barely at 1.5x msrp.  I have other DC examples.........

Ouch.  That’s particularly painful given that, if memory serves, it’s retirement coincided with the retirement of the first Wolverine set which went to something like 8x-10x in a minute (I remember this because I made the same mistake).

2 hours ago, ponderingzissou said:

Yes. I'm seeing the same. Only Brickset has Daily Bugle retiring Dec 2023. Curious to see if it sticks until Dec 2024 or if others will update and change to Dec 2023 also

It’s actually scheduled for 2025 at the moment.

[exciter1]

4 hours ago, raindog said:

What day was that because I sure as heck don't remember it?  

Terry was the champion, he had the proof going Walmart to Walmart on his scooter.

[Bricklectic]

10266 gone everywhere!

[Pseudoty]

44 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

10266 gone everywhere!

 

[Stonebreaker]

3 hours ago, Bricklectic said:

10266 gone everywhere!

Except for Europe where you can still order a max quantity of 5 from LEGO directly.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Stonebreaker
Clarification

[Sozial]

7 hours ago, redcell said:

Ouch.  That’s particularly painful given that, if memory serves, it’s retirement coincided with the retirement of the first Wolverine set which went to something like 8x-10x in a minute (I remember this because I made the same mistake).

Without googling that was 6866, that set was banana. Had ",only" 50 pieces. Good Times.

7 hours ago, redcell said:

 

 

[Pseudoty]

On 12/10/2023 at 10:14 PM, Bricklectic said:

10266 gone everywhere!

Assembly Square looks to be the same. 

[bigfanofnu]

On 12/10/2023 at 9:58 PM, Pseudoty said:

 

I still have a $20 off code from the black friday deals if anyone in europe could use it. PM me for details.