Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Bricklectic]

13 minutes ago, redcell said:

Does anyone remember Amazon playing the market pricing game this explicitly in the past?  It seems like they're riding the price up now that supply has started to dry up, rather than just sitting still at MSRP.

DOZENS of times over last few years. Only on certain sets. Some time of algo mayhem methinks. Typically comes back to MSRP unless it runs oos 

[fossilrock]

What do you guys think of 10265 Creator Expert Ford Mustang as an investment?  I was hard pressed to find something to buy to get the winter carriage and christmas bulb gifts with purchase on lego, so I decided to go with the Mustang so I could get the promos.  Almost bought the Vette instead.  I may build it but I might leave it in the box and hold it for a few years.  I believe this is supposed to retire mid next year.  Think this one could go like the Ferrari or more like the other ones that didnt really go too far above RRP?

[spener90]

12 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

What do you guys think of 10265 Creator Expert Ford Mustang as an investment?  I was hard pressed to find something to buy to get the winter carriage and christmas bulb gifts with purchase on lego, so I decided to go with the Mustang so I could get the promos.  Almost bought the Vette instead.  I may build it but I might leave it in the box and hold it for a few years.  I believe this is supposed to retire mid next year.  Think this one could go like the Ferrari or more like the other ones that didnt really go too far above RRP?

Your guess is as good as anyone’s in this market. With the saturation of buyers be prepared for suppression of growth for several years. But you never know though?

[marcandre]

Mustang is a great set but it's been out 4 years. I have picked up a few over the years when I could get a discount. Going to be a slow climb but I would think it does ok.

Gone from target & amazon so far. Still limit 5 at Lego. At least we know amazon isn't sitting on a surplus.

[gmpirate]

37 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

What do you guys think of 10265 Creator Expert Ford Mustang as an investment?  I was hard pressed to find something to buy to get the winter carriage and christmas bulb gifts with purchase on lego, so I decided to go with the Mustang so I could get the promos.  Almost bought the Vette instead.  I may build it but I might leave it in the box and hold it for a few years.  I believe this is supposed to retire mid next year.  Think this one could go like the Ferrari or more like the other ones that didnt really go too far above RRP?

If your goal is just to get the promos its probably not a bad move.  Sometimes I'll buy things like this thinking I can at least break even and keep the promos.  There are definitely better pure "investments" but this won't hurt you -- especially if you are considering building it!

[cladner]

46 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

What do you guys think of 10265 Creator Expert Ford Mustang as an investment?  I was hard pressed to find something to buy to get the winter carriage and christmas bulb gifts with purchase on lego, so I decided to go with the Mustang so I could get the promos.  Almost bought the Vette instead.  I may build it but I might leave it in the box and hold it for a few years.  I believe this is supposed to retire mid next year.  Think this one could go like the Ferrari or more like the other ones that didnt really go too far above RRP?

mustang is retiring this year, like now.

its been out since  march 2019 so almost 5 years of availability.  length of production over 48 months is not associated with rapid price appreciation post eol.  the box itself, its mostly empty and for whatever reason, the grade of cardboard used on this box is extra thin so very tough to get and send a mint box.  i think this will do about as good as the harley davidson set did which is to say, not good.  

 

[fossilrock]

17 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

If your goal is just to get the promos its probably not a bad move.  Sometimes I'll buy things like this thinking I can at least break even and keep the promos.  There are definitely better pure "investments" but this won't hurt you -- especially if you are considering building it!

I really wanted the promos...that was the main reason I bought the set.  It was also one of the few that's retiring that was still not on backorder, and i'm really leaning on building this one christmas day. 

 

9 minutes ago, cladner said:

mustang is retiring this year, like now.

its been out since  march 2019 so almost 5 years of availability.  length of production over 48 months is not associated with rapid price appreciation post eol.  the box itself, its mostly empty and for whatever reason, the grade of cardboard used on this box is extra thin so very tough to get and send a mint box.  i think this will do about as good as the harley davidson set did which is to say, not good.  

 

I was kinda surprised the Harley Davidson set hasn't gone better than it has.  Really none of the creator expert/icon vehicles have done very well except for the Ferrari.  

[fossilrock]

The 10276 Colosseum is looking like the investment winner of the year so far.  It's already selling for 865 plus shipping on ebay.  If you bought at RRP, you're gaining 300.00 off the set.  This one will easily be doubling it's price in a 2 year span.

[Bricklectic]

25 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

I really wanted the promos...that was the main reason I bought the set.  It was also one of the few that's retiring that was still not on backorder, and i'm really leaning on building this one christmas day. 

 

I was kinda surprised the Harley Davidson set hasn't gone better than it has.  Really none of the creator expert/icon vehicles have done very well except for the Ferrari.  

Fiat, Harley davidson have both done terrible. Even the almighty beetle has tumbled from 230 to 190. 

Outlook for the ducati and the Vespa is weak, particularly the Vespa which is a european type vehicke but not popular in USA as far as I understand. Ive never seen a Vespa in my life. Should  be an epic dud here in USA methinks. Buyin for me would need to be $60

[gmpirate]

3 hours ago, Bricklectic said:

Fiat, Harley davidson have both done terrible. Even the almighty beetle has tumbled from 230 to 190. 

Outlook for the ducati and the Vespa is weak, particularly the Vespa which is a european type vehicke but not popular in USA as far as I understand. Ive never seen a Vespa in my life. Should  be an epic dud here in USA methinks. Buyin for me would need to be $60

$50 from Costco.  Still only bought one at that price.

[Sozial]

4 hours ago, Bricklectic said:

Fiat, Harley davidson have both done terrible. Even the almighty beetle has tumbled from 230 to 190. 

Outlook for the ducati and the Vespa is weak, particularly the Vespa which is a european type vehicke but not popular in USA as far as I understand. Ive never seen a Vespa in my life. Should  be an epic dud here in USA methinks. Buyin for me would need to be $60

Vespa will bomb imho in EU as well.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Sozial

[$20 on joe vs dan]

18 hours ago, cladner said:

mustang is retiring this year, like now.

its been out since  march 2019 so almost 5 years of availability.  length of production over 48 months is not associated with rapid price appreciation post eol.  the box itself, its mostly empty and for whatever reason, the grade of cardboard used on this box is extra thin so very tough to get and send a mint box.  i think this will do about as good as the harley davidson set did which is to say, not good.  

 

The '64 mustangs is on my all time Best sets...top 10

so with that bias, I think it will do well once it's a couple years removed from the shelves.  IMO, it's easily a $300 retired set...that car is an ICON and LEGO hit it out of the park (despite minor QC issues).  I think of it this way... Let's say you're a recent AFOL.  An you're into cars (a fairly common pairing)... If you're already dazzled by LEGO's current offerings, with fresh eyes you see this Mustang.  It's aged really well (imo).  It's a must have for any young collection.

[freakchem]

I still have a couple of Harley Davidson cup sets which come with the Lego set when purchased from Harley Davidson directly.

[Pseudoty]

[Pseudoty]

[$20 on joe vs dan]

is it just me or are BHz loosing it's appeal...going by the way of Funko POps...I have seen some great sets, but not much appreciation in recent years...I don;t think any has popped in the last 3-4 years

[BrickLover80]

29 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

is it just me or are BHz loosing it's appeal...going by the way of Funko POps...I have seen some great sets, but not much appreciation in recent years...I don;t think any has popped in the last 3-4 years

There are just too many. So almost impossible to have a complete set. There are a few nuggets. Belle from Minions did well while the movie was out but now back down.

 

[brickvoyeur]

Yep, it's oversaturation. They key for every line seems to be get in early, and sell before it becomes fatigued.

You want to catch completionists before they realize they'll never be able to afford/complete the series. Once they do, they will either focus on the cheaper options, or move on to a different series they can get into early. 

[Pseudoty]

2 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

You want to catch completionists before they realize they'll never be able to afford/complete the series.

If you want to speculate and have 5 years and money to burn the T Rex Skull might be the 1st in a series set. 

ETA: At least that is what the YouTube Speculators are saying  

Edited December 7, 2023 by Pseudoty

[Keyser Soze]

34 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

If you want to speculate and have 5 years and money to burn the T Rex Skull might be the 1st in a series set. 

ETA: At least that is what the YouTube Speculators are saying  

Had a strong feeling this would be the case when the Frankenstein BHZ came along. Still waiting on the rest of the Universal Monsters lineup.

[ManAetherslime14]

Investment thoughts on all LEGO Minecraft sets retiring this year?

Especially 21184 The Bakery, 21185 The Nether Bastion, and 21188 The Llama Village. Those three sets have exclusive characters/mobs such as the Strider in 21185, and the Snow Villager in 21184.

[brickvoyeur]

12 minutes ago, ManAetherslime14 said:

Investment thoughts on all LEGO Minecraft sets retiring this year?

Especially 21184 The Bakery, 21185 The Nether Bastion, and 21188 The Llama Village. Those three sets have exclusive characters/mobs such as the Strider in 21185, and the Snow Villager in 21184.

Let's use my magic 8 ball and look at how the Minecraft sets retired 2 years ago are doing. It tells me most are struggling around RRP on Amazon. 

How much do you trust those "unique mobs" to not be remade by the time any of these sets become profitable enough at your buy-in? And will they carry the set post retirement?

[fossilrock]

8 hours ago, Pseudoty said:

If you want to speculate and have 5 years and money to burn the T Rex Skull might be the 1st in a series set. 

ETA: At least that is what the YouTube Speculators are saying  

I'm hoping the Jurassic line takes a hiatus with the T Rex Skull.

They still need to make a Stegasaurus and Mososaurus, but the lineup needs to halt for a while as they are just rehashing the same 5 dinos.

[ManAetherslime14]

7 hours ago, brickvoyeur said:

Let's use my magic 8 ball and look at how the Minecraft sets retired 2 years ago are doing. It tells me most are struggling around RRP on Amazon. 

How much do you trust those "unique mobs" to not be remade by the time any of these sets become profitable enough at your buy-in? And will they carry the set post retirement?

You're right, the Minecraft theme for investing has gone downhill. The last set to do fairly well was 21163.

[pharmjod]

2 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I'm hoping the Jurassic line takes a hiatus with the T Rex Skull.

They still need to make a Stegasaurus and Mososaurus, but the lineup needs to halt for a while as they are just rehashing the same 5 dinos.

Yes. I desperately want a stegosaurus.