Retiring Soon - open speculation

[redcell]

13 hours ago, belljohn said:

Well, since my name was called out, I can throw you a few Fire Bikes worth of knowledge.  If you want the synopsis, here it is: 

There is no one watching youtube videos that will influence the secondary value of a lego set, so don’t worry about it.

 

I would not discount the potential impact that content can have.  My decision to grow the scale of my reselling business was heavily influenced by an offhand comment made by Legofantexas on the old Brickset forum.  It wasn't anything profound, but was the lightbulb moment for me.  In the intervening years, I have grown my business to the point where I can influence the secondary market price of a set even if only temporarily.

[brickvoyeur]

11 minutes ago, redcell said:

I have grown my business to the point where I can influence the secondary market price of a set even if only temporarily.

Dear Redcell,
Please influence them all dramatically upwards.

Thanks,
Everyone

[redcell]

15 minutes ago, brickvoyeur said:

Dear Redcell,
Please influence them all dramatically upwards.

Thanks,
Everyone

I would if I could...I meant that I could influence things the other way and keep prices down by dumping inventory onto the market.

[Darth_Raichu]

5 minutes ago, redcell said:

I would if I could...I meant that I could influence things the other way and keep prices down by dumping inventory onto the market.

Looks like it is the current trend on Amazon.

[landphieran]

Not the same scale as @redcell but I was influenced by an offhand comment at my workplace six years ago. He mentioned he broke down sets and sold minifigures on Bricklink. I had been very successful selling high end monitors from outlets on Amazon to help get through college and wanted to keep up that additional income. With a little research and my roommate loaning me 10k at the time its turned into quite the business.

Yes, most people don't have the means to get to a point of influential success, whether that is fiscal, intelligence or motivational however small influences on the wrong people can cause impacts.

[brickolodon]

 

[Bold-Arrow]

2 minutes ago, brickolodon said:

 

in for a couple of hundreds....of everything. also in for his privates.

[Shortbus311]

So...are the hordes going in deep on meditation chamber with the sale? It's the pick everyone loves but.....the dirty little secret is.... no one seems to actually like the set. Personally, To my non star wars eyes seems uber boring, no exclusive minifigs, comprised mostly of base pieces, top isnt closed in a satisfying way. Awful sales rank on amazon. Yes i realize its exclusive but so is aquarium and thats 17k vs 150k. Subject material is awesome tho. An exclusive fig and more stable top and id be more gung ho

Both of the figures in this set are basically exclusive... General Veers is a exclusive print and the Darth Vader figure is only in this set and Bespin Duel which basically makes that one exclusive too. Both are selling at close to $20 each on Bricklink... pair that with being a Walmart exclusive and this set will do just fine for everyone who bought them at $50. Of course right now I don't even see a listing for it on Amazon.... regular pages nor in the seller app.

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[chaozz]

On 9/21/2022 at 6:44 PM, Bold-Arrow said:

in for a couple of hundreds....of everything. also in for his privates.

76902 is not in this decade going to $50 LOL

 

[Sozial]

30 minutes ago, chaozz said:

76902 is not in this decade going to $50 LOL

 

I mean I find that Speed Champion ugly as well, but why shouldnt it reach 50 $ easily within 2 years after eol? I am speaking FBA. All those predictions lack of the information of the selling platform, a set can be moving in decent numbers via FBA and is a total dud on eBay/craigslist.

[chaozz]

23 minutes ago, Sozial said:

I mean I find that Speed Champion ugly as well, but why shouldnt it reach 50 $ easily within 2 years after eol? I am speaking FBA. All those predictions lack of the information of the selling platform, a set can be moving in decent numbers via FBA and is a total dud on eBay/craigslist.

Rank and amount of sellers are both to high, 2 years this will top out around $30 to $35 just like 75895 and 75891 with a good rank still, 4 years down the road it will be higher but with a rank of 100K plus and not many sales. 

[Sozial]

33 minutes ago, chaozz said:

Rank and amount of sellers are both to high, 2 years this will top out around $30 to $35 just like 75895 and 75891 with a good rank still, 4 years down the road it will be higher but with a rank of 100K plus and not many sales. 

Well I am on my cell but FBA in US is 36.88$, then 45-55$ during Xmas should be doable. I just fear thus Xmas will be a bummer at least here in Europe.

Another thing to mention is the different price points of the Sets (15 vs 20), so in think 2,5x should be achivable within 2 years for the ugly blue one. But what do I know with my armada of green dinosaurs walking through London.

[vasp]

12 minutes ago, Sozial said:

But what do I know with my armada of green dinosaurs walking through London.

I'm with you on this one.

[chaozz]

1 hour ago, Sozial said:

Well I am on my cell but FBA in US is 36.88$, then 45-55$ during Xmas should be doable. I just fear thus Xmas will be a bummer at least here in Europe.

Another thing to mention is the different price points of the Sets (15 vs 20), so in think 2,5x should be achivable within 2 years for the ugly blue one. But what do I know with my armada of green dinosaurs walking through London.

it's 15.99 and does not exit till end of this year, I don't see this getting over $25 by xmas

[Sozial]

9 hours ago, chaozz said:

it's 15.99 and does not exit till end of this year, I don't see this getting over $25 by xmas

With 36,88 $ I was refering to 75895.

[chaozz]

19 hours ago, Sozial said:

With 36,88 $ I was refering to 75895.

I'm down to my last 80 or so of those, Last xmas think it hovered around $25 slowly has gone up,

but there is still 60 sellers,  I would never wait for something like this to hit $50, I don't want to store them for 2 or 3 years. I can be using the money I made at $25 and buy something new and start over. 

[Sozial]

16 hours ago, chaozz said:

I'm down to my last 80 or so of those, Last xmas think it hovered around $25 slowly has gone up,

but there is still 60 sellers,  I would never wait for something like this to hit $50, I don't want to store them for 2 or 3 years. I can be using the money I made at $25 and buy something new and start over. 

Okay then you do have another game plan as I do. Since the space in my warehouse is limited and its not my main job, I cant do the volume volume game.

[landphieran]

I have a feeling a bunch of harry potter sets are going to get delayed retirements. Waiting... impatiently.

[pharmjod]

When has that ever happened this late in the game without notice?

[landphieran]

Usually postponements happen pretty late into the holidays after they have sales figures on hot sets

[pharmjod]

Again, name a set that got a delayed retirement after the summer wave that wasn't announced or known about from vendor lists well before this time of year? Amazon getting a massive order doesn't count. It is entirely possible I'm forgetting something, but I don't recall it ever happening.

Edited September 30, 2022 by pharmjod

[redcell]

Baking Competition and Friendship Bus


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[raindog]

7 hours ago, pharmjod said:

Again, name a set that got a delayed retirement after the summer wave that wasn't announced or known about from vendor lists well before this time of year? Amazon getting a massive order doesn't count. It is entirely possible I'm forgetting something, but I don't recall it ever happening.

Treehouse?  I can't remember the timeline.

[redcell]

It does bear mentioning that whatever happened in the last two years is not necessarily indicative of what is going to or is likely to happen going forward.  LEGO's supply chain was all kinds of screwed up from March 2020 through the end of December 2021 for obvious reasons.  Things have been back on track this year so it remains to be seen whether we'll see the same pattern of late changes in retirement dates and massive Amazon restocks like we saw last year.

[exracer327]

14 hours ago, redcell said:

It does bear mentioning that whatever happened in the last two years is not necessarily indicative of what is going to or is likely to happen going forward.  LEGO's supply chain was all kinds of screwed up from March 2020 through the end of December 2021 for obvious reasons.  Things have been back on track this year so it remains to be seen whether we'll see the same pattern of late changes in retirement dates and massive Amazon restocks like we saw last year.

I agree but I also hope LEGO made the same mistake the big box stores made in the USA and stocked too much product so we can have some decent sales in the next few months.