Retiring Soon - open speculation

[Robby99x]

What about the Ideas Tree House 21318? I hope it will retire this year.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

19 hours ago, Robby99x said:

What about the Ideas Tree House 21318? I hope it will retire this year.

If this is the set you have your hopes on

...prepare yourself for disappointment

[freakchem]

11 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

If this is the set you have your hopes on

...prepare yourself for disappointment

This is next T1 camper van or Death Star

[spener90]

3 minutes ago, freakchem said:

This is next T1 camper van or Death Star

The Tree of Life.

[TheBrickClique]

10 hours ago, spener90 said:

The Tree of Life.

The Great Basin Bristlecone Pine claims to be the world’s oldest living tree species due to the adaptations required to survive its harsh growing conditions.

Some can boast an age of 5000 years. 
 

21318: “Hold my beer.”

[stuco191]

42083 Bugatti Chiron in stock at Amazon US

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07C8L9CRJ/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_gl_i_P21KCQFVAXVH6CQMZDY2


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[thedingman5]

On 5/26/2022 at 8:06 AM, stuco191 said:

42083 Bugatti Chiron in stock at Amazon US

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07C8L9CRJ/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_gl_i_P21KCQFVAXVH6CQMZDY2


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One more run at Amazon now…Ships July 2.  Grabbed one for the personal collection.

Left it late….

[vasp]

20 Left

[vasp]

Amazon reloaded yesterday. Down to 11 again

[cuttingcorners47]

71040 Disney Castle and 71043 Hogwarts castle. Does anyone know if the jury is still out on these two sets, or are they definitely retiring this year?

[RDales]

71040 is still slated to retire this year.    71043 hogwarts castle was pushed back to 2024 i believe  (for sure it was pushed back to at least 2023 , its not retiring this year)

[chaozz]

Big sets seem to live on forever, I won't buy them anymore

[Bricklectic]

5 minutes ago, chaozz said:

Big sets seem to live on forever, I won't buy them anymore

Treehouse is top contender for sure.

Hagrids Hut, San Francisco, Dubai, Corvette, Baronyx & Bowers Castle still available at amazon really throws a curveball...

You can be right with your entry price, right at picking a winning set, right in trusting the retiring list, and still not make money on the investment because amazon stockpiled 7 bajillion of your set you thought was a sure fire winner for the next 5 years post retirement. 

I really wish there was a way to see how many amazon has in stock for something beyond the limit 20. Keepa is worthless for this particular data point.

[chaozz]

17 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

Treehouse is top contender for sure.

Hagrids Hut, San Francisco, Dubai, Corvette, Baronyx & Bowers Castle still available at amazon really throws a curveball...

You can be right with your entry price, right at picking a winning set, right in trusting the retiring list, and still not make money on the investment because amazon stockpiled 7 bajillion of your set you thought was a sure fire winner for the next 5 years post retirement. 

I really wish there was a way to see how many amazon has in stock for something beyond the limit 20. Keepa is worthless for this particular data point.

Hagrids Hut, San Francisco, Dubai, on my list EOL end of 2022

other 2 are not

[pharmjod]

They are all retired. Now. 

[Beatz]

About the Hogwarts Castle this was postponed to 2024 if I'm not mistaken...or maybe someone has other news about this? I really appreciate the set and will get it but if it's 2024 then I'll wait a bit....

[$20 on joe vs dan]

10 hours ago, Beatz said:

About the Hogwarts Castle this was postponed to 2024 if I'm not mistaken...or maybe someone has other news about this? I really appreciate the set and will get it but if it's 2024 then I'll wait a bit....

it should be worth noting that the recent trends for big sets are...if the set is "actually" going to retire...they start becoming scarce 6 to 8 months prior (ie no chance at ANY discounts even if you're able to find one)...sometimes it may be OOS at LEGO Shop at Home even long before that.

I find that, for big sets, if I really want it...the best time is actually 1.5 years or so prior to "actual" retirement if I hope to find any deals.  For the Big Hogwarts...I have noted that on Ebay there are some decent deals (save 50-75 bucks so so). This has happened to me  bunch...where I see a deal on a set I want...but I figure I will have more opportunities (and deals) closer to retirement...and then POOF...radio silence until the set is officially retired.

That said, there is always the chance LEGO Shop at Home may have a BF/holiday promo on some soon to retire big sets.

Edited June 29, 2022 by $20 on joe vs dan

[coelian]

In recent memory the last time there was a decent deal on big sets just prior to retirement was carousel. Last year there was a mad scramble for Disney trains. Discounts for big sets on SAH have been rare since covid started with the increased demand. 

[Bricklectic]

Barrucuda Bay was available for 160 right b4 retiring....

[$20 on joe vs dan]

39 minutes ago, coelian said:

In recent memory the last time there was a decent deal on big sets just prior to retirement was carousel. Last year there was a mad scramble for Disney trains. Discounts for big sets on SAH have been rare since covid started with the increased demand. 

Jurassic Park Gate, Disney Trains, and 1989 Batmobile are fresh in my mind as "sudden"...no wonder they are all around x2 RRP already.

(I have to kick myself for not getting an extra Jurassic Gate...I literally had the 2nd box on the counter at the LEGO store and then change my mind thinking it wasn't a popular set)

[$20 on joe vs dan]

48 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

Barrucuda Bay was available for 160 right b4 retiring....

with BB many were skeptical that such a great and popular set was going to retire so soon.

(seriously, I think the Tree House traumatized many here) I was in that boat...

[starwarsxpress]

42 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Jurassic Park Gate, Disney Trains, and 1989 Batmobile are fresh in my mind as "sudden"...no wonder they are all around x2 RRP already.

(I have to kick myself for not getting an extra Jurassic Gate...I literally had the 2nd box on the counter at the LEGO store and then change my mind thinking it wasn't a popular set)

My planning says to buy within 6 months of retirement date with promotions and for all of the above I bought according to that plan at my local lego store.  I just bought a batwing with double vip and a forest gwp.  My store was out of stock so that doesn’t always work so got it while on vacation.  In my opinion it will mirror the above 3 in retirement.

[gmpirate]

26 minutes ago, starwarsxpress said:

My planning says to buy within 6 months of retirement date with promotions and for all of the above I bought according to that plan at my local lego store.  I just bought a batwing with double vip and a forest gwp.  My store was out of stock so that doesn’t always work so got it while on vacation.  In my opinion it will mirror the above 3 in retirement.

Lol, yeah.  Gotta love those projected retirements!

[coelian]

On 6/29/2022 at 10:13 PM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Jurassic Park Gate, Disney Trains, and 1989 Batmobile are fresh in my mind as "sudden"...no wonder they are all around x2 RRP already.

(I have to kick myself for not getting an extra Jurassic Gate...I literally had the 2nd box on the counter at the LEGO store and then change my mind thinking it wasn't a popular set)

Yea those were gone quickly after announcements, there was a small window to get the Disney trains on the Swiss lego SAH after eu went oos but I was busy that morning and was too late.... Had only one for myself. 

[redcell]

A few new changes to retirement dates:

City Ice Cream Truck
Poly juice Potion Mistake
Speed Champs 76900 & 76901

All pushed back to 2023


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