Retiring Soon - open speculation

[roxio]

16 hours ago, chaozz said:

We put in another bulk order for it in December and they came back saying was Amazon UK exclusive, As well as B&N would not get anymore.Would love to load up again. But if Amazon UK has it,.they will list it on the USA side and kill the market

You think the Dec-22 date is wrong for Hedwig ? Promobricks had it as Dec-21 which hasn't happened. Brickfanatics had it as 2023 now brought forward to 2022. Before they took them down, Brickset had it as 2022.

[chaozz]

5 hours ago, roxio said:

You think the Dec-22 date is wrong for Hedwig ? Promobricks had it as Dec-21 which hasn't happened. Brickfanatics had it as 2023 now brought forward to 2022. Before they took them down, Brickset had it as 2022.

I think Dec 21 might be accurate for B&N, I'm not done digging on this one as it sells incredible fast.

[BrickLover80]

2 hours ago, chaozz said:

I think Dec 21 might be accurate for B&N, I'm not done digging on this one as it sells incredible fast.

Hedwig wasn't on Stonewars or Brickfanatics 2021 list. In fact, Brickfanatics had it for Dec 2022 on the HP list back in August last year:

https://www.brickfanatics.com/the-full-list-of-lego-harry-potter-sets-retiring-in-2021-and-beyond

 

[LegoPicker88888]

I'm back after a long hiatus, I forgot the password to my old account so I'm posting with a new account.

I sold all my sets briefly in 2017/2018 and now with inflation ramping up I thought it would be a good idea to park some cash back in Legos.

Whats everyones thoughts on 10273 & 71040?

[LegoTriathlete]

Howdy, curious folks opinion.  Don't want to miss out on the modular builds, which ones are expected to retire this year?  Is it bookshop and maybe assembly square?  Thx!

[redghostx]

Howdy, curious folks opinion.  Don't want to miss out on the modular builds, which ones are expected to retire this year?  Is it bookshop and maybe assembly square?  Thx!

Rumours lead to Bookshop this year.

Yay LEGO!

[Goblin]

58 minutes ago, LegoTriathlete said:

Howdy, curious folks opinion.  Don't want to miss out on the modular builds, which ones are expected to retire this year?  Is it bookshop and maybe assembly square?  Thx!

Assembly Square is around next year. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

https://www.brickfanatics.com/five-top-20-lego-sets-are-retiring-in-2022/

Brickfanatics noted that 5 of their Top 20 all time LEGO sets are "retiring":

Apollo SAturn V Rocket

Ninjago Gardens

Disney Castle (the big one)

Hogwarts castle (The big one)

Ideas Treehouse

 

IF these do retire which one appreciate the most straight out of the gate and then after 5 years?

this one is super tough for me...I guess I still doubt the castle and Hogwarts will ACTUALLY retire which is influencing my initial vote which is Ninjago Gardens

after a few years if they are all definitively "retired" (whatever that means nowadays) the winner is Hogwarts...my caveat is that LEGO does not continue w/ big Disney castles, otherwise completionist will super charge sleeping beauty's castle.

I would bet all 5 easily hold White Whale status for the future AfoLs currently in their caves.

Edited March 16, 2022 by $20 on joe vs dan

[Pseudoty]

Some more sets officially retired on Lego website today including 

https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/pirates-of-barracuda-bay-21322

[Captain_Obvious]

LEGO 60266 Ocean Exploration Ship - RETIRED!

Product page on LEGO: https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/ocean-exploration-ship-60266

Not sure if this one has been mentioned yet or if anyone even cares lol. I think it's a winner (maybe just a personal winner for my collection).

Just pulled the trigger on eBay for $185 with tax from a reputable seller in Japan (not sure about custom fees, but I double-checked Japan's official custom fee page, and it looks like 4.3% at most or maybe no fee at all). Still available on eBay at fair prices, but only from sellers in Japan.

Here are the eBay listings: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego 60266&_sacat=0&rt=nc&_udlo=100

Japan's Custom Fees Page: https://www.customs.go.jp/english/tariff/2011_8/data/i201108e_95.htm

 

[HandyHand]

On 3/16/2022 at 7:35 AM, $20 on joe vs dan said:

https://www.brickfanatics.com/five-top-20-lego-sets-are-retiring-in-2022/

Brickfanatics noted that 5 of their Top 20 all time LEGO sets are "retiring":

Apollo SAturn V Rocket

Ninjago Gardens

Disney Castle (the big one)

Hogwarts castle (The big one)

Ideas Treehouse

 

IF these do retire which one appreciate the most straight out of the gate and then after 5 years?

this one is super tough for me...I guess I still doubt the castle and Hogwarts will ACTUALLY retire which is influencing my initial vote which is Ninjago Gardens

after a few years if they are all definitively "retired" (whatever that means nowadays) the winner is Hogwarts...my caveat is that LEGO does not continue w/ big Disney castles, otherwise completionist will super charge sleeping beauty's castle.

I would bet all 5 easily hold White Whale status for the future AfoLs currently in their caves.

Interesting question. Here are my thoughts about those sets:

- Considering de Apollo rocket was a re-release of the first version I don't think it will hold that white whale status in future. Too many sets produced.

- The Ideas Treehouse has been in production for a much longer time than usual for Ideas sets. It wasn't very scarce most of the time so I don't think it will gain that status either.

- The Ninjago Gardens set belongs with the Ninjago City and Ninjago Docks sets. There's a  chance in a few years a 4th set in this series is released, boosting demand for the previous three sets, including the Gardens set. On the other hand, people who didn't get the first and second set are less likely to want the Gardens set.

- Disney Castle (71040) has not seen any big discounts. At least here in Europe I haven't seen it sold below €300. Also not widely available. This could very well become a future white whale. Limited chances it will be re-released any time soon.

- Hogwards Castle (71043) is a big and impressive eye catcher. Very limited chances it will be re-released within a decade. Could in time achieve the same status that the first UCS Millennium Falcon had before a remake was released. Good chances for future white whale status.

[HandyHand]

22 minutes ago, Captain_Obvious said:

LEGO 60266 Ocean Exploration Ship - RETIRED!

Product page on LEGO: https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/ocean-exploration-ship-60266

Not sure if this one has been mentioned yet or if anyone even cares lol. I think it's a winner (maybe just a personal winner for my collection).

Just pulled the trigger on eBay for $185 with tax from a reputable seller in Japan (not sure about custom fees, but I double-checked Japan's official custom fee page, and it looks like 4.3% at most or maybe no fee at all). Still available on eBay at fair prices, but only from sellers in Japan.

Here are the eBay listings: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego 60266&_sacat=0&rt=nc&_udlo=100

Japan's Custom Fees Page: https://www.customs.go.jp/english/tariff/2011_8/data/i201108e_95.htm

Why look at eBay for higher prices when you can find this set much cheaper on Bricklink from reputable European sellers? 

[Phil B]

19 minutes ago, HandyHand said:

Why look at eBay for higher prices when you can find this set much cheaper on Bricklink from reputable European sellers? 

I don't think that is cheaper for someone in the US. Even the cheapest EUR116.10 is $128, and then there is shipping which for a large set like this is likely going to cost $30-$40 for an international package.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

3 hours ago, Captain_Obvious said:

LEGO 60266 Ocean Exploration Ship - RETIRED!

Product page on LEGO: https://www.lego.com/en-us/product/ocean-exploration-ship-60266

Not sure if this one has been mentioned yet or if anyone even cares lol. I think it's a winner (maybe just a personal winner for my collection).

Just pulled the trigger on eBay for $185 with tax from a reputable seller in Japan (not sure about custom fees, but I double-checked Japan's official custom fee page, and it looks like 4.3% at most or maybe no fee at all). Still available on eBay at fair prices, but only from sellers in Japan.

Here are the eBay listings: https://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_from=R40&_nkw=lego 60266&_sacat=0&rt=nc&_udlo=100

Japan's Custom Fees Page: https://www.customs.go.jp/english/tariff/2011_8/data/i201108e_95.htm

 

I agree this one is a winner. 

It's the largest City ship...yet (Altho giant hole in the middle and uses two ship hulls so kinda cheating)

That aspect alone will keep it atop kids wish list.  Well reviewed by Jang

[gmpirate]

It would be a winner under normal circumstances for City sets but this was never on sale leaving only GWP's as viable purchases.  You're going to have to wait a long time to make a decent return on this set at RRP.  In certainly would be way down the list of winners in any case.

[pharmjod]

3 minutes ago, gmpirate said:

It would be a winner under normal circumstances for City sets but this was never on sale leaving only GWP's as viable purchases.  You're going to have to wait a long time to make a decent return on this set at RRP.  In certainly would be way down the list of winners in any case.

Zavvi had it on sale multiple times. My buy price was $128 I believe. Not stellar, but not bad either. 

 

Also, not being deeply discounted means pretty much everyone is operating from a similar buy price so that should keep prices up regardless. 

Edited March 25, 2022 by pharmjod

[Darth_Raichu]

18 minutes ago, pharmjod said:

Zavvi had it on sale multiple times. My buy price was $128 I believe. Not stellar, but not bad either. 

 

Also, not being deeply discounted means pretty much everyone is operating from a similar buy price so that should keep prices up regardless. 

Agreed. I had to make hard decisions on what to buy and skip based on previous bad investments. This was the hardest one to pass

[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, pharmjod said:

Zavvi had it on sale multiple times. My buy price was $128 I believe. Not stellar, but not bad either. 

 

Also, not being deeply discounted means pretty much everyone is operating from a similar buy price so that should keep prices up regardless. 

Yeah, the likelihood of less hoarders should mean less competition...better chance at a steeper appreciation curve (shorter hold time)..it's also a nice big box (wow factor for gifting)...I plan to sell locally.

...unless LEGO releases another one w/ subtle changes...maybe the next one will have 3 hulls put together 😁

Edited March 25, 2022 by $20 on joe vs dan

[freakchem]

2 hours ago, pharmjod said:

Zavvi had it on sale multiple times. My buy price was $128 I believe. Not stellar, but not bad either. 

 

Also, not being deeply discounted means pretty much everyone is operating from a similar buy price so that should keep prices up regardless. 

It is comparable to Lego Technic Ocean Explorer 42064. It will be a winner but I have to give it a hard since since it is seldom on sale. 

[gmpirate]

2 hours ago, pharmjod said:

Zavvi had it on sale multiple times. My buy price was $128 I believe. Not stellar, but not bad either. 

 

Also, not being deeply discounted means pretty much everyone is operating from a similar buy price so that should keep prices up regardless. 

I'm sure most people here can point to some place or circumstance where they got some kind of discount, but 15% is hardly a discount on a city set and most people will pay tax on that bringing it to a single digit discount.  A $150 City set with no appreciable discount is hardly a good investment.  In past years it would have been a great set to pick up via clearance and good sales but that never happened.

 

45 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Yeah, the likelihood of less hoarders should mean less competition...better chance at a steeper appreciation curve (shorter hold time)..it's also a nice big box (wow factor for gifting)...I plan to sell locally.

...unless LEGO releases another one w/ subtle changes...maybe the next one will have 3 hulls put together 😁

There are plenty of sets with hoarders that are and will do better.

Not saying it won't "eventually" do well, but time "should" figure into people's equations of good investments.  Buying sets too early and holding sets too long hurt your investment opportunities and growth.

[pharmjod]

I don't disagree with most of what you just said. Except that this set is / will be a winner and it won't take very long to get there. I don't have many, but I definitely like it a lot. $125 (checked my email) was including tax for the ones I have, so 21% off a huge, cool city set that wasn't really sold in many retail stores is as good a discount as I ever expected to get. We will see. Few sellers, decent rank and already profitable on Amazon. I could see this potentially being $300+ by Christmas.

[redcell]

Boat sets like this have always done well.  I wish I had more.

[glucapg]

3 minutes ago, redcell said:

Set di barche come questo sono sempre andati bene. Vorrei averne di più.

The wise guy

Lego rule: boat = money 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

11 minutes ago, pharmjod said:

I don't disagree with most of what you just said. Except that this set is / will be a winner and it won't take very long to get there. I don't have many, but I definitely like it a lot. $125 (checked my email) was including tax for the ones I have, so 21% off a huge, cool city set that wasn't really sold in many retail stores is as good a discount as I ever expected to get. We will see. Few sellers, decent rank and already profitable on Amazon. I could see this potentially being $300+ by Christmas.

well during CV scarcity this set was going for close to $300 

so there's the precedent already...that's what put it on my radar.  Watching Jang's review sold me...has a ton of wow factor

[gmpirate]

1 hour ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

well during CV scarcity this set was going for close to $300 

so there's the precedent already...that's what put it on my radar.  Watching Jang's review sold me...has a ton of wow factor

Lol, Covid made everything look good!  😜  But yeah, boats like this normally do very well.  I'm just not a big fan of buying at RRP.  I bought some when I knew they were done on impulses but probably wouldn't have otherwise.