Retiring Soon - open speculation

[pharmjod]

@redcellthere is no place for logic and rational thought here. We armchair CEOs know what we are ranting about 😜

[$20 on joe vs dan]

first off, not every set should be treated the same, so grossly grouping them all together would results in mixed and potentially misleading conclusions.

So if we're talking specifics I think there are some facts here in this recent discussion:

Great Hall (license) retirement was likely extended due to resellers hoarding

Treehouse (non-licensed but Ideas) almost definitely was extended due to resellers hoarding

Gingerbread (non-licensed but seasonal) House TBD

A couple that should have been extended due to reseller activity but weren't:

Diner (non-license)

Tantive IV (Licensed)

Complicating the analysis are the COvid related stuff and supply chain issues. Not sure where I'm going, but I wanted to distill some potentially helpful data amongst the talk of fleas and whales

[redcell]

I hate to break it to y'all, but resellers are not the center of the Lego universe.  Correlation does not equal causation, particularly in the aftermath of a market disruption as large as the one caused by COVID over the last 13-14 months.  Just apply Occam's Razer...what is a more likely explanation for the extension of Tree House: (a) it is a wildly popular set and TLG fell so far short of fulfilling its outstanding orders from retailers during the pandemic that it decided to extend it to meet the market demand, or (b) a small group of Lego customers who buy for resale single-handedly bought so many copies of one of the most in-demand sets during the pandemic from Walmart, Amazon, and Target (because LEGO Shop at Home was sold out for months) that Walmart, Amazon, and Target placed restock orders with TLG that were so large that TLG decided to extend the life of the set, which it would have retired had resellers not been buying?  

At the end of the day, you realize that we all make money reselling Lego when the sets we choose are popular enough that the demand for them outstrips the available supply?  If resellers were the driving force behind the extension of certain sets, where would the demand that drives prices increases come from?

[ravenb99]

Everything will be magical.  Things just got shaken up.  No reason to cause a stir.  

Edited June 28, 2021 by ravenb99

[keymomachine]

3 hours ago, redcell said:

Take us away and the product remains just as popular and does just as well...the products that we purchase are simply purchased by someone else.

This right here. Lego is not Funko pops, there is an inherent desirability to it as it's a toy that people actually enjoy and play with.

[donbee]

Y'all crack me up.  I hate to break it to you, but the Lego world does not revolve around you and the other Lego resellers out there.  And there isn't a group of sales executives sitting around a room in Enfield or Billund scheming on how best to manipulate resellers into buying more of a given set.  Lego is operating on a scale far larger than anything the reselling community could impact.   

Umm… correction. The Lego world does revolve around me. The execs have me on speed dial. You should know better than to say something silly like that.


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Ill attempt for fun. $100M+. Minimum.
PFT alone (largest usa reseller afaik) likely sells more than 10M+ each year. and there are other whales out there as well.
Treehouse likely extended due to resellers.
Even amazon kinda paid attention late last year when we saw for the first time on many occasions on many sets amazon pricing their inventory at resellers prices altho possibly that was just pricing algos doing their thing.

You do know that $100mill is not even 2% of $7bill!?


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[donbee]

At the end of the day, you realize that we all make money reselling Lego when the sets we choose are popular enough that the demand for them outstrips the available supply?  If resellers were the driving force behind the extension of certain sets, where would the demand that drives prices increases come from?

Wait, resellers do more than just buy,buy,buy and hoard,hoard,hoard?


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I think Great Hall was extended to flow more smoothly in to the anniversary. It was probably eft easy to continue because there aren’t many unique pieces or colors.


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[$20 on joe vs dan]

1 hour ago, redcell said:

I hate to break it to y'all, but resellers are not the center of the Lego universe.  Correlation does not equal causation, particularly in the aftermath of a market disruption as large as the one caused by COVID over the last 13-14 months.  Just apply Occam's Razer...what is a more likely explanation for the extension of Tree House: (a) it is a wildly popular set and TLG fell so far short of fulfilling its outstanding orders from retailers during the pandemic that it decided to extend it to meet the market demand, or (b) a small group of Lego customers who buy for resale single-handedly bought so many copies of one of the most in-demand sets during the pandemic from Walmart, Amazon, and Target (because LEGO Shop at Home was sold out for months) that Walmart, Amazon, and Target placed restock orders with TLG that were so large that TLG decided to extend the life of the set, which it would have retired had resellers not been buying?  

At the end of the day, you realize that we all make money reselling Lego when the sets we choose are popular enough that the demand for them outstrips the available supply?  If resellers were the driving force behind the extension of certain sets, where would the demand that drives prices increases come from?

Other than the past 3 years...what are some examples of TLG changing their minds and extending previously planned retirements?  Are their older Promobricks, Stonewars articles where they stated that TLG changed their plan and decided to extend? because these seems to be the norm nowadays with their predictions.

Ultimately, I think the truth is somewhere between flea and whale on where resellers fall into TLG equation.

I think the bigger factor is whatever was a max number of sets LEGO could keep active at a time went WAY up recently; hence longer lives. IMproved manufacturing and shipping and consumer tolerance for TOOS are definitely allowing LEGO to keep more dishes spinning.  Also Amazon and their instant data analysis provides LEGO w/ a direct connection to their customers like never before.

no one can argue that the game has changed...most would argue it's always been changing, but slower in the past.

[SpaceFan9]

5 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Other than the past 3 years...what are some examples of TLG changing their minds and extending previously planned retirements? 

 

I'll start...

1. Volkswagon T1 (10220) (2011 - 2020)

2. Death Star (10188) (2008 - 2015, replaced by 75195 in 2016)

some sets never retire.

[ravenb99]

6 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Other than the past 3 years...what are some examples of TLG changing their minds and extending previously planned retirements?  Are their older Promobricks, Stonewars articles where they stated that TLG changed their plan and decided to extend? because these seems to be the norm nowadays with their predictions.

Ultimately, I think the truth is somewhere between flea and whale on where resellers fall into TLG equation.

I think the bigger factor is whatever was a max number of sets LEGO could keep active at a time went WAY up recently; hence longer lives. IMproved manufacturing and shipping and consumer tolerance for TOOS are definitely allowing LEGO to keep more dishes spinning.  Also Amazon and their instant data analysis provides LEGO w/ a direct connection to their customers like never before.

no one can argue that the game has changed...most would argue it's always been changing, but slower in the past.

every year some get extended and some get bumped up,  nothing has really changed other than last year being ********* up.  Now they have a crap ton of $200+ sets and stores can't even display them all.  So yes a lot will be going this year.   Only different thing that changed is bringing **** back with new numbers.  Problem with that is you have more expensive sets still available.  Most people only have so much money to spend so that will eventually just hurt and hopefully go away in the long run.   They can produce a lot quicker now too so other than the covid stuff sets get replenished quicker.  Still some weird **** going on like with Tuk Tuk  and the small flower stuff,  some stuff just disappears out of production for months at a time.   I'd be more concerned with the GWP vs PWP possible changes than over retirement changes.  

[Bricklectic]

12 minutes ago, donbee said:

You do know that $100mill is not even 2% of $7bill!?


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The argument that lego cares about resellers does not relate to the amount of $$$ taht the resellers purchase collectively and directly targeting resellers to hurt them or to milk them but rather  we are speculating as to specific sets eol dates getting postponed in reaction to stronger than anticipated eol sales.

Typically what used to happen was over the length of say a 2 year lego sets shelf life sales would start to dwindle and lego would retire them. 

Recently with the increases awareness if the lego investing game, certain sets have been selling like hotcakes even in their final scheduled year. like 20 on joe pointed out the treehouse and great hall are prime examples. 

Lego sees them selling like nuts and extends by 6 months or a year. Its a simple and eminently reasonable reaction. Theyd be fools not to extend. So the argument is we sometimes hurt ourselves with our buying frenzies.

[jbacunn]

5 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

The argument that lego cares about resellers does not relate to the amount of $$$ taht the resellers purchase collectively and directly targeting resellers to hurt them or to milk them but rather  we are speculating as to specific sets eol dates getting postponed in reaction to stronger than anticipated eol sales.

Typically what used to happen was over the length of say a 2 year lego sets shelf life sales would start to dwindle and lego would retire them. 

Recently with the increases awareness if the lego investing game, certain sets have been selling like hotcakes even in their final scheduled year. like 20 on joe pointed out the treehouse and great hall are prime examples. 

Lego sees them selling like nuts and extends by 6 months or a year. Its a simple and eminently reasonable reaction. Theyd be fools not to extend. So the argument is we sometimes hurt ourselves with our buying frenzies.

This exactly. Lego sees some sets selling well in planned last year and extend. They don’t know or care if it’s resellers or normies buying the sets. All they see is increased sales. We screw ourselves by over buying. 

[Goblin]

Lego have a vested interest in the resale market with Bricklink too. Double dip diet, like Jeff Bezos.

If the average punter bought 5 more Great Halls because of the prolonged retirement speculation, someone at Lego HQ just may be smiling a little more. 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

5 hours ago, SpaceFan9 said:

I'll start...

1. Volkswagon T1 (10220) (2011 - 2020)

2. Death Star (10188) (2008 - 2015, replaced by 75195 in 2016)

some sets never retire.

yes, they were long in the tooth but were they "scheduled" for extension or they simply had a long life?

I am trying to distinguish between sets where TLG actually changed their mind and opted to extend (which we think was due to their popularity spiking close to retirement than overall popularity through their shelf life)

[$20 on joe vs dan]

For those that do not think resellers move the needle

I personally remember seeing 999 units of Razor Crest sellout on Amazon in less than a minute.

something like that raises eye brows..no?

[Goblin]

Saturn V. 

1) Did Lego resurrect it because of demand? If so, was a significant percenatge of this demand fuelled by hoarders? 

2) Did Lego get complaints from customers about the price of buying from resellers? From memory I believe it reached 2 x RRP pretty quickly. 

3) Did Lego re-release it to frustrate resellers?

4) Or was it just re-released without any consideration given to the after-market? 

Maybe Lego do just ignore the resale market, but in a hypothetical world void of resellers, I doubt Lego would have brought it back so quickly. Didn't I see a website a few months ago saying it was retiring again? And so it continues...

[coelian]

20 minutes ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

For those that do not think resellers move the needle

I personally remember seeing 999 units of Razor Crest sellout on Amazon in less than a minute.

something like that raises eye brows..no?

How many sets of Nebulon B were cleared out on Amazon, was it in the thousands? I think the general public don't really care about lego reseller scum but that move made collectors pissed. I remember even Jang wrote a comment on brickset. 

If I were lego I don't think I will be mad at resellers hoarding stuff, they are like an extended warehouse and help keep the brand valuable whilst reducing inventory risk for them. If things are impossible to get once they retire very quickly people will get tired of collecting, end of the day it's all basic demand and supply. 

 

4 minutes ago, Goblin said:

Saturn V. 

1) Did Lego resurrect it because of demand? If so, was a significant percenatge of this demand fuelled by hoarders? 

2) Did Lego get complaints from customers about the price of buying from resellers? From memory I believe it reached 2 x RRP pretty quickly. 

3) Did Lego re-release it to frustrate resellers?

4) Or was it just re-released without any consideration given to the after-market? 

Maybe Lego do just ignore the resale market, but in a hypothetical world void of resellers, I doubt Lego would have brought it back so quickly. Didn't I see a website a few months ago saying it was retiring again? And so it continues...

Maybe they will bring it back a second time with another set number! 😃

[Goblin]

19 minutes ago, coelian said:

Maybe they will bring it back a second time with another set number! 😃

It's an interesting scenario. When there is another leak in September, what are people going to do? 

How does it go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

[coelian]

3 minutes ago, Goblin said:

It's an interesting scenario. When there is another leak in September, what are people going to do? 

How does it go? Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

More likely an extension than another set number if it sells that well.

[Pseudoty]

7 hours ago, ravenb99 said:

Still some weird **** going on like with Tuk Tuk  and the small flower stuff,  some stuff just disappears out of production for months at a time.

I made a comment about this with the Tulips set. When it finally came back it still had a seal code from week 48 of 2020 so most likely the original production run being released 6 months later. Did lego find old stock, have a supply chain issue, or did they learn something over the past 18 months with perceived shortages?
 

Remakes (Taj) and re-releases (SATURN V) decrease value, collectibility and IMO hurt the brand.

1 hour ago, coelian said:

How many sets of Nebulon B were cleared out on Amazon, was it in the thousands? I think the general public don't really care about lego reseller scum but that move made collectors pissed.

Definitely two sides to this. Some people like, MY PARENTS, still don’t understand Amazon marketplace and that when they make a purchase from Amazon they are actually buying from reseller scum. No matter how many times I explain it to them they still just think they are buying stuff from Amazon to be equivalent to Target  and don’t consider price.
 

While if you read the comments on any lego set that is exclusive to another retailer you will most likely see the hate towards resellers. 

 Nebulon:

xanderslick

1.0 out of 5 stars say no to scabs

Reviewed in the United States on November 14, 2020

 

ill never give scabs my money for gouging collectors, ill wait like everyone should, lego may reissue, don't waste ur time and money here paying more than its worth

182 people found this helpful

 

Razor Crest reseller listing:

 

CK

4.0 out of 5 stars Great gift but lousy price

Reviewed in the United States on January 30, 2021

Verified Purchase

The Razor Crest is a great gift and a fun build. The Baby Yoda is part of the fun. A special piece.. But I was very upset at the price. $390 at Xmas, then down to $278 ish around the first of January, but the price keeps changing.. I dont think that the changing price is good.... shows the Greed of Amazon and/or Lego... huge companies that jack up the price at seasons... should have a special holiday price. But it is a nice product, lousy price.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Pseudoty

[Shortbus311]

Nebulon B was a unique circumstance. It lasted a lot longer than it should have on Amazon if it was properly named and had a picture. Named as it was, iirc it lasted at least 2 days before selling out. Not the same as 1000 Razorcrest selling out in seconds.

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[redcell]

Other than the past 3 years...what are some examples of TLG changing their minds and extending previously planned retirements?  Are their older Promobricks, Stonewars articles where they stated that TLG changed their plan and decided to extend? because these seems to be the norm nowadays with their predictions.
Ultimately, I think the truth is somewhere between flea and whale on where resellers fall into TLG equation.
I think the bigger factor is whatever was a max number of sets LEGO could keep active at a time went WAY up recently; hence longer lives. IMproved manufacturing and shipping and consumer tolerance for TOOS are definitely allowing LEGO to keep more dishes spinning.  Also Amazon and their instant data analysis provides LEGO w/ a direct connection to their customers like never before.
no one can argue that the game has changed...most would argue it's always been changing, but slower in the past.

This happens every year...the only reason why it seems like a new phenomenon is because actual insight into retirement dates only started becoming more widely available around 3-4 years ago.

Also, for every set that gets extended and has the attention of resellers, they are at least 10 that you never hear about. It's not like TLG keeps extending the classic large brick box because resellers keep building new warehouses to stockpile their vast hoards of that perennial set (which would have been a runaway reselling hit had TLG retired it after an initial run of 1-2 years).

At the end of the day, TLG is a massive multibillion company whose product cycle decisions are likely driven by far more mundane concerns like Sven fat-fingering the number of boxes he ordered from the printer or an oversupply of an ABS colorant that is heavily used in a given set, etc. In my experience, even the best run companies tend to operate closer to "borderline dumpster fire" end of the spectrum than the "finely-tuned machine" end, which is the main reason I don't think TLG execs are sitting around scheming on how to manipulate unsuspecting resellers into buying products that tend to fly off the shelves on their own.

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[Pseudoty]

2 minutes ago, redcell said:

It's not like TLG keeps extending the classic large brick box because resellers keep building new warehouses to stockpile their vast hoards of that perennial set (which would have been a runaway reselling hit had TLG retired it after an initial run of 1-2 years).

Don’t remember which one of you this is:

[redcell]

Don’t remember which one of you this is:
http://bp-forum.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2021_06/F3678024-CC2F-4434-83EB-D959DDAC7057.thumb.jpeg.a5473bb32c23fe3d0873d4145381bceb.jpeg

I was talking about the one that comes in the plastic bin. That person's definitely needs a bigger van.

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[joneyyy1981]

10 hours ago, $20 on joe vs dan said:

Gingerbread (non-licensed but seasonal) House TBD

 

ffs thats all i need.