Retiring Soon - open speculation

[zaphoid]

5 minutes ago, TheBrickClique said:

Yes, in this case to the QFLL went the spoils of war:

https://www.businessinsider.com/lego-women-of-nasa-amazon-prime-price-gouging-2017-11

I didnt QFLL those, I got mine too late and had to hold to post retirement.  Covid helped move these.

[TheBrickClique]

6 minutes ago, zaphoid said:

I didnt QFLL those, I got mine too late and had to hold to post retirement.  Covid helped move these.

Congrats then!  I should have taken my own advice as I've only managed to sell 2 of my 20 (both in the past month) -- I refused to take a loss on this one (out of pride I suppose) so I set a breakeven sell price on ebay and it has been sitting there for years.

If I had scalped just on of these, I'd have more profit than I'll ever expect from these 20.

Meanwhile, anything with Benny is profitable.  Just goes to show you gender inequality is not a myth...

[Secret Squirrel]

21 minutes ago, TheBrickClique said:

Yes, in this case to the QFLL went the spoils of war:

https://www.businessinsider.com/lego-women-of-nasa-amazon-prime-price-gouging-2017-11

What was your buy in on those in the U.S?

It never really took off here in the U.K, £35 average, after all fees not much left.

It was bundled last year here with another set but they did inflate the price a bit.

[TheBrickClique]

2 minutes ago, Secret Squirrel said:

What was your buy in on those in the U.S?

It never really took off here in the U.K, £35 average, after all fees not much left.

It was bundled last year here with another set but they did inflate the price a bit.

All MSRP ($25) purchases in November, 2017 when it was launched.  Seemed like the perfect Christmas QF.  But then prices here dropped back to MSRP before December and those who didn't sell in those first couple weeks were stuck.

[shagmoz]

2 hours ago, TheBrickClique said:

I check the prices a couple times a year.  If a set is flat, I dump it after a year.  Maybe it'll go up, but maybe it will be the next Birds, Exosuit, Women of NASA, etc... just taking up shelf space.

If it climbed, but has since leveled off, also a good time to sell.  Super Star Destroyer, Grand Emporium, etc... would be a good examples (ignoring what they did this past year).

If it took off like a rocket with irrational exuberance, might want to pull the trigger quick -- I'm looking at you, Seacow.

Everything else, is up to your cash flow needs.

In my spreadsheet where I track all my sets, I have the sale price column and the date sold right next together.  Most of my sales are on ebay and I list one set at a time, and I'll price the next set based on the trend that I'm seeing.  It's depressing when I see sets selling for $350 two weeks before Christmas that were selling for $250 two weeks earlier.  Ya, you'd wish you had held onto those sets and sold them later, but that's how the dice rolls sometimes.  My solution is to "simply" stock enough sets that I can get some quick returns early, but also have the reserves to participate in the long game.  For me, that means where I might have considered 10 of a set to be a good reserve with large diversification, now I'm looking at 30 to 50 in a smaller variety.

Similarly, if it is going up, consider why.  Is it FOMO driven -- if so, sell quick.  Is it part of a long-term collectible series (winter holiday sets, architecture cityscapes) where new incoming participants want to catch up -- then it'll probably only continue to increase and you might want to hold longer.  If it is part of a series that has been cancelled -- such as sets based on a particular movie -- then the demand might wane and you'll wish you had sold earlier.  And then there are the classics -- look at the price history of 10223 or any of the 7040X castle sets.   When you think of LEGO, how can you not think about Space and Castles?  As long as LEGO doesn't introduce a new castle series, nostalgia will continue to drive these up and you should probably hold onto a couple of them.

And then there is the exit plan.  How much can a set go up after all?  If it's already 5x its original MSRP like some of the castle sets, then do you cash out or keep betting?  I don't know of many people who will say, "Oh, why did I sell for 400% profit when I could have made 900% profit?"  You're more likely to hear, "Why didn't I take my 400% profit before LEGO decided to reissue the same set this year and now I only doubled my money?"  It's a lot safer to take that 400% gain and reinvest it in the next set that might go up only 50%, but is not very likely to drop 50% after retirement.  Also, at some point, folks will Bricklink a set if they are willing to spend 5x MSRP.  I picked 5x just because that's a fairly extreme gain that not many sets will hit.  Personally, if I have a set that has hit 3x MSRP on ebay, I'm more than happy to sell and never look back.

Thank you for your excellent reply. I appreciate the time you took and the information is right on point! 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

3 hours ago, TheBrickClique said:

I check the prices a couple times a year.  If a set is flat, I dump it after a year.  Maybe it'll go up, but maybe it will be the next Birds, Exosuit, Women of NASA, etc... just taking up shelf space.

If it climbed, but has since leveled off, also a good time to sell.  Super Star Destroyer, Grand Emporium, etc... would be a good examples (ignoring what they did this past year).

If it took off like a rocket with irrational exuberance, might want to pull the trigger quick -- I'm looking at you, Seacow.

Everything else, is up to your cash flow needs.

In my spreadsheet where I track all my sets, I have the sale price column and the date sold right next together.  Most of my sales are on ebay and I list one set at a time, and I'll price the next set based on the trend that I'm seeing.  It's depressing when I see sets selling for $350 two weeks before Christmas that were selling for $250 two weeks earlier.  Ya, you'd wish you had held onto those sets and sold them later, but that's how the dice rolls sometimes.  My solution is to "simply" stock enough sets that I can get some quick returns early, but also have the reserves to participate in the long game.  For me, that means where I might have considered 10 of a set to be a good reserve with large diversification, now I'm looking at 30 to 50 in a smaller variety.

Similarly, if it is going up, consider why.  Is it FOMO driven -- if so, sell quick.  Is it part of a long-term collectible series (winter holiday sets, architecture cityscapes) where new incoming participants want to catch up -- then it'll probably only continue to increase and you might want to hold longer.  If it is part of a series that has been cancelled -- such as sets based on a particular movie -- then the demand might wane and you'll wish you had sold earlier.  And then there are the classics -- look at the price history of 10223 or any of the 7040X castle sets.   When you think of LEGO, how can you not think about Space and Castles?  As long as LEGO doesn't introduce a new castle series, nostalgia will continue to drive these up and you should probably hold onto a couple of them.

And then there is the exit plan.  How much can a set go up after all?  If it's already 5x its original MSRP like some of the castle sets, then do you cash out or keep betting?  I don't know of many people who will say, "Oh, why did I sell for 400% profit when I could have made 900% profit?"  You're more likely to hear, "Why didn't I take my 400% profit before LEGO decided to reissue the same set this year and now I only doubled my money?"  It's a lot safer to take that 400% gain and reinvest it in the next set that might go up only 50%, but is not very likely to drop 50% after retirement.  Also, at some point, folks will Bricklink a set if they are willing to spend 5x MSRP.  I picked 5x just because that's a fairly extreme gain that not many sets will hit.  Personally, if I have a set that has hit 3x MSRP on ebay, I'm more than happy to sell and never look back.

seriously good post. the best part is the use of actual set examples for those of us who were asleep in our caves in blissful ignorance...never knew that about the SSD and Emporium

[redghostx]

seriously good post. the best part is the use of actual set examples for those of us who were asleep in our caves in blissful ignorance...never knew that about the SSD and Emporium

Sea Cow shot up to something like 2x MSRP right away and then crashed hard. I think the last Arkham Asylum went up something like 50-75% in a few days and also crashed to MSRP. Almost every exclusive that retired in that period did the same thing and few, if any showed sustained growth.

It was a time when a lot of people were trying to buy sets at the very end of life and might have been FOMO or failed speculation.

[$20 on joe vs dan]

2 minutes ago, redghostx said:

Sea Cow shot up to something like 2x MSRP right away and then crashed hard. I think the last Arkham Asylum went up something like 50-75% in a few days and also crashed to MSRP. Almost every exclusive that retired in that period did the same thing and few, if any showed sustained growth.

It was a time when a lot of people were trying to buy sets at the very end of life and might have been FOMO or failed speculation.

I suspect 2020 effects will shock many...strap in your seatbelts...no one's seen anything like this before

 

...and not even LEGO, I'm talking toilet paper 😂 

[Captain_chaos]

On 12/18/2020 at 7:50 PM, Secret Squirrel said:

You say your goal is to double your money in one year but in reality what percentage of your selling stock actually achieved 100% ROI or more?

Some sets will fail to hit 100% ROI for sure, but others could blast past that many times over, helping the average. Example: I bought some 41194s (Elves) for £20 in clearance from Argos. Just sold the first of them for £160. After fees (£1 FVF thanks) and shipping, that's more like 600% ROI. Makes up for some of the turds one tends to be lumbered with.

I also think that the absolute value of a set plays an important part. If I buy a set for £100 and end up making £150 back after fees, sure that's not great ROI but it's still £50 profit for one single set (that I only need to ship once). In contrast, if I buy some battle pack for £7.50 and get £12 after shipping and fees, that's a higher ROI but feels like a much bigger waste of my time.

[brickolodon]

Looks like nothing to put on sale after Xmas!?! SAH completely empty 50 sets or so left

[joneyyy1981]

35 minutes ago, Captain_chaos said:

Some sets will fail to hit 100% ROI for sure, but others could blast past that many times over, helping the average. Example: I bought some 41194s (Elves) for £20 in clearance from Argos. Just sold the first of them for £160. After fees (£1 FVF thanks) and shipping, that's more like 600% ROI. Makes up for some of the turds one tends to be lumbered with.

I also think that the absolute value of a set plays an important part. If I buy a set for £100 and end up making £150 back after fees, sure that's not great ROI but it's still £50 profit for one single set (that I only need to ship once). In contrast, if I buy some battle pack for £7.50 and get £12 after shipping and fees, that's a higher ROI but feels like a much bigger waste of my time.

Who is actually buying these elves sets for £160. It’s madness....

[Secret Squirrel]

26 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Who is actually buying these elves sets for £160. It’s madness....

Agree, what’s in these elves sets for people to want to pay that amount?

[dennugsmello]

27 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

Who is actually buying these elves sets for £160. It’s madness....

That fox was an easy lock based on previous elves performance. Easily the best animal of the last run in the series. I see it in the $250 range easy on eBay by next year.  IMO Elves are some of the best sets Lego ever produced. I’ve built many of the sets to sell used and they are fantastic, technical, “girls” sets. Nothing compares. Trolls is a half hearted attempt to recreate which doesn’t cut it. 

[cladner]

retired in oz.  still TOOS in US.   this is reassuring.  triceratops still hasn't retired anywhere - SOLD OUT in north america - TOOS in rest of world.  triceratops retired in poland and a few other countries in eu.  with the delay in the new JW motion picture i have been worried these could stick around longer if they ended up delaying the new sets based on the motion picture which isn't coming out until next year.  the "Newman" minifigure from this set will be in demand after the Seinfeld ideas set gets released.

Edited December 20, 2020 by cladner

[joneyyy1981]

11 minutes ago, cladner said:

triceratops still hasn't retired anywhere - 

it has in some parts of EU

[cladner]

6 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

it has in some parts of EU

i forgot to check poland and eastern europe looking like  it's retired there - phewsh!

Edited December 20, 2020 by cladner

[$20 on joe vs dan]

wrong thread

Edited December 20, 2020 by $20 on joe vs dan

[redcell]

i forgot to check poland and eastern europe looking like  it's retired there - phewsh!

It's going this year. Nothing to worry about unless you didn't buy in.

[marcinj]

So what to do with the Flintstones? Can anyone also confirm its staying? Got around 40 pcs. Don't know if should sell right now and restock in November?

[joneyyy1981]

42 minutes ago, redcell said:

21 hours ago, cladner said:

i forgot to check poland and eastern europe looking like  it's retired there - phewsh!

It's going this year. Nothing to worry about unless you didn't buy in.

last 2 years now retiring JW sets dried up literally overnight in the uk

[Legojona]

5 minutes ago, joneyyy1981 said:

last 2 years now retiring JW sets dried up literally overnight in the uk

Think there will be a shortage anyway with all the trade stuff. Selling Lego in the UK will be way more lucrative the upcoming months I think. 

[elmaslıefendi]

1 hour ago, Legojona said:

Think there will be a shortage anyway with all the trade stuff. Selling Lego in the UK will be way more lucrative the upcoming months I think. 

They deserve it, selling is tough over there, eBay says it all...

[joneyyy1981]

43 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

They deserve it, selling is tough over there, eBay says it all...

can we add a donate button under our names?

[Achilles]

I know it was speculated about, but does anyone have any more "concrete" info/rumors about a new Death Star replacing this one, or will there actually be a DS hiatus for a while?

 

[$20 on joe vs dan]

Anyone have a retirement opinion on the Ninjago Land Bounty? Came out in 2019 but there is a current Bounty released in 2020...seem weird to have both versions on the shelf for much longer.

Not on any retirement lists, but we know they are not exhaustive.