Retiring Soon - open speculation

[raindog]

Just now, exciter1 said:

Santa's Workshop was up to 250 at a point.

My point exactly.  Huge numbers of sellers are nothing new on AZ.

[Yellow Castle]

4 hours ago, Voltron said:

What I don't understand is how lego is managing to maintain the biggest set inventory to date / releasing huge amount of new 18+ set / whilst also not retiring many sets. Surely their manufacturing / production capacity has to reach near capacity, without building new plants. Or is the plan to reach "peak lego" and then just decline naturally, as year on year growth cant be sustained.

I reckon Lego see the increase in people (especially adults) buying Lego during Lockdown 1 and also with supply chain issues they probably thought this is the year to keep as much on the market as possible. That my thoughts but I could be way off.

In the first lockdown I did equivalent to December sales per month, one guy I sold to was buying from all over the world and literally going into what I started referring to as “Blockdown”😉

[Voltron]

2 hours ago, raulaco said:

I swear the vw campervan is going to be on the 30 percent Black Friday Deals. Noticed that it's limit has been put down to 3 which is a little hint and the production hasn't stopped just yet.  Makes sense for it to go out with a bang.

10220 t1 van was one of the black Friday 30% sets in 2016 in UK!

[Bricklectic]

 

https://www.brickfanatics.com/the-entertainer-founder-warns-of-christmas-lego-supply-shortage/

Edited November 19, 2020 by Bricklectic

[iahawks550]

If I were TLG, I would leak that story also. It's great for revenue. 

[marcandre]

35 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

 

https://www.brickfanatics.com/the-entertainer-founder-warns-of-christmas-lego-supply-shortage/

I can fill the treehouse shortage 😭

[elmaslıefendi]

4 minutes ago, marcandre said:

I can fill the treehouse shortage 😭

You'll do it for the US, I'll suppy to the EU. I think there won't be a 21318 shortage at all then.

[Bricklectic]

7 minutes ago, marcandre said:

I can fill the treehouse shortage 😭

The ultimate twist would be if it really did go EOL in 2020. It really wouldn't shock me tbh

[elmaslıefendi]

4 minutes ago, Bricklectic said:

The ultimate twist would be if it really did go EOL in 2020. It really wouldn't shock me tbh

Nah, they sold what they had to sell to people who thought it's done, now it's time for another year. Or maybe two. And maybe a re-release right after that.

Edited November 19, 2020 by elmaslıefendi

[Bricklectic]

8 minutes ago, elmaslıefendi said:

Nah, they sold what they had to sell to people who thought it's done, now it's time for another year. Or maybe two. And maybe a re-release right after that.

Gotcha.

The new Lego playbook when they need a sales boost. Pull some sets off next years avail. list. Grease the rumor mills and retirement lists. Make sets avail in dribs and drabs to ensure instant sellouts each time. Milk it till resellers are fully stocked. "change mind" and extend deadline for another year. Rinse. Repeat.

Diners anyone?

Edited November 19, 2020 by Bricklectic

[nolan808]

1 hour ago, Bricklectic said:

Gotcha.

The new Lego playbook when they need a sales boost. Pull some sets off next years avail. list. Grease the rumor mills and retirement lists. Make sets avail in dribs and drabs to ensure instant sellouts each time. Milk it till resellers are fully stocked. "change mind" and extend deadline for another year. Rinse. Repeat.

Diners anyone?

I think if diner gets extended most people will be done with the investing part, would hurt Lego in the long run but who knows ultimately what there thinking. 

[Yellow Castle]

31 minutes ago, raulaco said:

I think if diner gets extended most people will be done with the investing part, would hurt Lego in the long run but who knows ultimately what there thinking. 

I totally agree, the last couple of months I have bought less and I’m very close to calling it a day. I will see how the next 2 months go.

Hopefully the retirement tags will be added soon and I’ll be interested to see what Black Friday 2020 deals are around as I reckon retailers won’t drop % much. In the UK John Lewis has 15-20% off some of the bigger sets but none of the known sets due for retirement that I know of.

i miss the riddles on here from a few years back too😊 

[hockeyweasel]

The Elf House went TOOS two to three weeks earlier than the Gingerbread House and I'm selling Elf House at prices Gingerbread House didn't reach until December last year.  It seems we always see a story like this each year, but this year I'm more inclined to see some truth in it.

[stuco191]

Lego  75938 T. Rex Vs Dino Mech drying up everywhere. Backorders shipping Jan 3rd 2021 on Shop @ Home. Just something worth noting bc I believe it is on most speculative retiring set lists. 

[legolegolego2014]

3 hours ago, hockeyweasel said:

The Elf House went TOOS two to three weeks earlier than the Gingerbread House and I'm selling Elf House at prices Gingerbread House didn't reach until December last year.  It seems we always see a story like this each year, but this year I'm more inclined to see some truth in it.

Has anyone been able to see/find the Amazon listing for Elf House? 

[president89]

12 minutes ago, legolegolego2014 said:

Has anyone been able to see/find the Amazon listing for Elf House? 

Anytime i can't find it I just type this into google "AMAZON LEGO 10275" . It usually comes right up. I think amazon suppresses high priced items sometimes.

 

https://www.amazon.com/Lego-10275-Elf-Club-House/dp/B08LB49RB4

[landphieran]

1 hour ago, stuco191 said:

Lego  75938 T. Rex Vs Dino Mech drying up everywhere. Backorders shipping Jan 3rd 2021 on Shop @ Home. Just something worth noting bc I believe it is on most speculative retiring set lists. 

It appears that Lego's next re-stock for most sets are early January. I'm sure they have piles of certain sets coming in but there should be incredible opportunities to flip Lego's this Christmas if you have the right stock. As I have posted before, I expect sets to retire a bit later this year as the Lego fleet is trying to fit there Lego sized payloads through a straw sized fulfillment network. I'm wary of buying sets at minimal discounts that I don't intend on flipping as I expect a glut of sets coming in after Christmas. It's going to be fun either way. Lego prices are soaring!

Edited November 20, 2020 by landphieran

[brickohaulic]

32 minutes ago, landphieran said:

It appears that Lego's next re-stock for most sets are early January. I'm sure they have piles of certain sets coming in but there should be incredible opportunities to flip Lego's this Christmas if you have the right stock. As I have posted before, I expect sets to retire a bit later this year as the Lego fleet is trying to fit there Lego sized payloads through a straw sized fulfillment network. I'm wary of buying sets at minimal discounts that I don't intend on flipping as I expect a glut of sets coming in after Christmas. It's going to be fun either way. Lego prices are soaring!

Have seen a few places where still available for $89. Wonder if I need to scoop them up.

[landphieran]

1 hour ago, brickohaulic said:

Have seen a few places where still available for $89. Wonder if I need to scoop them up.

You should be able to find some time between now and Christmas to make at least 20-30 each. Its really hard to say how long everything is going to be out of stock. Based on the news article above and the insane rate Toys are selling right now on Amazon. I'd venture to guess its going to be a ripe season for some flips. My 2 cents.

[river41]

8 hours ago, landphieran said:

It appears that Lego's next re-stock for most sets are early January. I'm sure they have piles of certain sets coming in but there should be incredible opportunities to flip Lego's this Christmas if you have the right stock. As I have posted before, I expect sets to retire a bit later this year as the Lego fleet is trying to fit there Lego sized payloads through a straw sized fulfillment network. I'm wary of buying sets at minimal discounts that I don't intend on flipping as I expect a glut of sets coming in after Christmas. It's going to be fun either way. Lego prices are soaring!

i think the restock dates on amazon are not realistic.

i ordered a few things that were officially coming in in 4 weeks and i got it within 2 weeks

it looks like they are under promising

[landphieran]

5 hours ago, river41 said:

i think the restock dates on amazon are not realistic.

i ordered a few things that were officially coming in in 4 weeks and i got it within 2 weeks

it looks like they are under promising

These are re-stock dates on Lego.com which tend to over promise and under-deliver.

[Steel6T]

Interesting to note that treehouse is marked as sold out again at LEGO Shop at Home

[marcandre]

14 minutes ago, Steel6T said:

Interesting to note that treehouse is marked as sold out again at LEGO Shop at Home

Amz has it for jan delivery. Should be a chance to unload stock for those of us that were banking on 2020 retirement (& dont want to hold a year)

[stuco191]

Interesting to note that treehouse is marked as sold out again at LEGO Shop at Home

Last place In stock looks like b&n

[Bricklectic]

There were over a thousand available on amazon whenn it poofed last week.

To me that means its just being held for sales next week BF